Washington Nationals: Reducing the Out Rate to Score More Runs
by natsstats on Jun 1, 2010 12:45 PM EDT
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PrintThe Washington Nationals offense has not been as potent this season as fans had hoped and expected. The offense currently ranks 9th in the National League and 16th in Major League Baseball in runs scored. One of the issues plaguing the Nats is the loss of base runners, either by pick off, failed steal attempt, failed extra base attempt, or double play. This year the Nats have even managed the offensive triple play. Outs are the only constant in baseball. You can work around anything else, but each out puts you one step closer to the end of the game. This made me wonder - the stats we see don't really account for events like Nyjer Morgan caught stealing and Pudge Rodriguez grounding into a double play. How do we show the total out rate for each player?
Out Rate
To compute the out rate for each player, I totaled all outs made through batted balls and strikeouts. I assigned two outs every time a player hit into a double play, three outs for a triple play. I thought long and hard about the triple play - it's really a combination of bad base running and bad luck. At the end of the day, it's rare, and it was easier to work the database by assigning all 3 outs to the batter. I also added outs when a player was caught stealing, was picked off, and was tagged trying to leg out an extra base on a ball in play. There are a few times each season when an offensive player causes an out by interfering with a defensive player - this was also assigned as an out to the offending player.
Based on the events MLB stores in the gameday (PitchF/X) data, I came up with the following formula:
Total Outs = Strikeouts + Groundouts + Pop Outs + Line Outs + Fly Outs + Bunt Outs + Fielder's Choice + (2*Double Plays) + (3*Triple Plays) + Picked Off + Caught Stealing + Tagged Out + Interference
Players received a pass for getting on base by error and for hitting a sacrifice fly/sacrifice bunt. To turn total outs into a rate, I divided the total number of outs by the total number of plate appearances:
Out Rate = Total Outs / Total Plate Appearances
MLB Out Rates
Through Sunday May 30th, the MLB out rate is 0.672. After computing the league rate, I looked at the data, limiting the output to players with a minimum 75 plate appearances.
Bottom three:
- Garret Anderson (Dodgers) - 81 TPA, 68 outs, for an out rate of .840. Absolutely deadly.
- Brandon Wood (Angels) - 128 TPA, 106 outs, for an out rate of .828.
- Garrett Atkins (Orioles) - 134 TPA, 104 outs, for a .776 rate.
Top three:
- Marcus Thames (Yankees) - 79 TPA, 41 outs, .519 out rate
- Justin Morneau (Twins) - 213 TPA, 111 outs, 0.521 out rate. To me, this is the most impressive performance. 213 plate appearances, and he barely records a half out per plate appearance.
- Kevin Youkilis (Red Sox) - 220 TPA, 119 outs, 0.541 out rate.
Other Players of Note:
- Albert Pujols (Cardinals) - 226 TPA, 137 outs, .611 out rate
- Ryan Braun (Brewers) - 219 TPA, 136 outs, .621 out rate
- Martin Prado (Braves) - 234 TPA, 145 outs, .632 out rate
- Derek Jeter (Yankees) - 235 TPA, 156 outs, .668 out rate
Washington Nationals
So how did the Nats perform? We know that Pudge has pounded his share of double plays this year, and Morgan has been caught on the bases more than he should. Here how it looks (dashed red line is league .672 out rate):
Josh Willingham is in MLB leader territory with an out rate of only .563. Dunn, Kennedy and Zimmerman are all below the league .672 rate. Willie Harris and Wil Nieves are killing the offense with .753 and .740 rates respectively. Put another way - if they each have 4 plate appearances in a game, they will likely be responsible for 3 outs each. Nyjer Morgan's out rate (.708) is a real disappointment. The failed bunt attempts and base running mishaps caused his out rate to skyrocket above the league average. Pudge's 10 GDPs have edged his out rate to a few points above the league average.
So what do you think? Is this a useful way to display a player's total contribution to team outs?
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That's good stuff.
It’s interesting in isolation, but I’m trying to think of what to pair it with to get something like (scoring) – (outs). It’s effectively a more-complete version of OBP. The trick is adding in positive events (steals, XBH, etc). Of course, such a metric may just end up reinventing something like RC/PA…
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I thought of same issues and came to the same conclusion
The only thing I thought might be useful was plotting this against OBP. I ultimately decided against it because it still missed GDP
Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.
by natsstats on Jun 1, 2010 1:18 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
It's a nice measure, but...
is it correlated with anything? It would be useful to see if this describes individual contributions to runs scored (or, in essence, runs NOT scored).
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Let me expound just a bit
I wonder if you are making a mistake in assuming all outs are equal. My initial impression is that such an assumption is, in fact, false. Think of it this way: a defense knows instinctively that cutting down a lead runner is typically the optimal play (though, as we know, they will go for two outs regardless of the lead runner on a one-out ball in play, etc.) In this way, we can imagine that cutting down a runner on base (or making a baserunning mistake) is worse than cutting simply making an out as a batter, and the problem is worse the farther along the runner is on the bases.
So, my bet is that there’s a good linear-weights method to optimize the relationship between a linear combination of those factors you use — combined with the position of the runner — and the number of runs a team scores. If I had the data I’d probably do it myself…
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
But....
If you really want to make this accountable to the actually offensive performance you should take the out rate and adjust it for total bases produced in creating those outs. This is kind of a improved OPS, take all bases produced, TB + BB + IBB + SB for Absolute Total Bases, you can then divide that by PAs to get a decent measure of the expected bases per time up, put the two together and I think you’ll have a solid measure of exactly what each player is providing toward creating runs.
this would be a good adjustment
but really, I think it can be taken at face value as well. The way I see it, the batter’s primary objective before all else is ‘dont make an out.’ This shows us who is doing that the least.
my only criticism would be
To set a minimum plate appearence number to combat small sample size
Hey. Welcome to the party notrizzo!
Curious about why you aren’t rizzo and a solid contribution to the discussion. Interesting that the Nats seem to have their power guys also be solid OBP guys. Kind of goes against some “conventional wisdom” where the power guys are guys who may be out machines as well like Pena for the Devil Rays.
Ian Desmond...because the future starts now for the Washington Nationals.
Looking at where our Nats stand
It really captures how confident I feel when each player is at the plate, especially with RSP.
Ads other people have said, comparing this metric with one that captured scoring would be really interesting.
Nice job.
Caveat: Favors Big hitters
Pretty cool stat, but from the data, it obviously favors big hitters in the middle of the lineup. These players are more likely to fly out, strike out, take small leads, and less likely to attempt “to leg out a double.” Top of the lineup hitters often hit for contact, take larger leads, attempt more steals, and generally are more aggressive on the bath paths. I’m not sure how, but if you could correlate this with runs lost vs. runs gained, then that would help signify the data. For example, Dunn will never score from 1st base on a single. Morgan on the other hand, will often try, sometimes getting thrown out, sometimes scoring a run.
by Chazz Micheal Micheals on Jun 1, 2010 3:57 PM EDT reply actions
It favors high-OBP guys.
Except for ones that make outs after getting on base.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
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