Washington Nationals: 25 Days of Offensive Futility

by natsstats on Jun 24, 2010 12:15 PM EDT

Cristian Guzman grimaces after striking out to end the eighth inning against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park on June 1, 2010 in Houston, Texas.

The Washington Nationals offense has been mired in a month long slump. Every day, the Nats make opposing pitchers look like a combo Bob Gibson, Greg Maddux, and Cy Young. How bad is the offense? Are they significantly underperforming, or have they run into a string of pitchers on top of their games?

Let's look at the last 25 days to find out.

Computing the Data:

I went through the box scores of the Nats' last 25 games. I pulled the opposing team's actual ERA for each game. Next, I computed each opposing pitcher's ERA at the start of the game. From that data. I prorated each pitcher's contribution to that game, to come up with the expected opposing ERA for each game.

For example, if the Nats faced a team where the starter pitched 6 innings, a reliever pitched 2 innings, and a closer pitched 1 inning, I computed the expected ERA to be 6/9*Starter ERA + 2/9 Reliever ERA + 1/9 Closer ERA. This allowed me to use the expected ERA for that game played on that day, as opposed to a "team average" ERA, or an ERA computed 3 weeks after the game was played.

Actual vs Expected

With that in mind, here's the actual vs expected opposing team's ERA over the last 25 games, on a game by game basis. ERA is on the left, Nats opponents on the bottom:

As you can see, the Nats have only scored more earned runs than expected 7 times in the last 25 games. (The 14 runs game against Houston was the game where Roy Oswalt was tossed after 2.1 innings.).

Delta from Expected ERA

Here is the delta from the expected ERA:

It's pretty clear that the Nats offense hasn't run into a string of Aces. The expected ERA of the teams faced ranged from a low of 2.139 to a high of 6.140. The fact is (dropping the highest and lowest deltas), the Nats have scored on average .953 fewer earned runs than expected in the last 25 games.

Problems

The reasons are many: Nyjer Morgan leads the team in Plate Appearances, but has struggled to get on base. He has also struggled to stay on base, leading MLB in Caught Stealing. At this point, he is an out 7 times out of every 10 plate appearances, and he gets a lot of plate appearances. Cristian Guzman has seen his batting average drop .025 points during this time frame.

Where's the cavalry?

Unfortunately, the Nats only have one solid bat on the bench. Mike Morse has had an excellent season (.390/.457/.634). For whatever reason, Jim Riggleman elects to sit Morse in favor of Nyjer Morgan (.247/.309/.323) and Willie Harris (.152/.242/.324). In fact, Riggleman has given Willie Harris 12 Pinch Hit appearances during this slump to Morse's 5.

Looking at the minor's, there doesn't appear to be anyone knocking on the door. The Nats still have holes in their minor leagues - there won't be any calvalry this year.

Mike Rizzo's philosophy is that the majors are where you produce, the minors are where you work things out. Right now, guys aren't producing. It's time to try something different.

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Comments

you took expected, and i looked at actual...

http://natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com/2010/06/nationals-slump.html

either way you slice it, Riggleman’s constant cap-tipping to the opponent is wearing very thin.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Jun 24, 2010 1:19 PM EDT reply actions

Heh - great minds

I tried to take into account the ability of the relievers as well. It’s fun comparing to what you did. Like you say – anyway you slice it, we have met the enemy and it is us

Relax, all right? Don't try to strike everybody out. Strikeouts are boring! Besides that, they're fascist. Throw some ground balls - it's more democratic.

by natsstats on Jun 24, 2010 9:43 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

He's clueless to say that kind of stuff.

Patiently waiting for "next year" since 1971.

by Princess Jazzy on Jun 24, 2010 2:18 PM EDT reply actions

Solid work as always.

Our lineup is what it is. At this point, we know that we have 3 offensive producers, and even they seem to be performing slightly better than their career numbers (maybe not Willingham, but certainly Dunn and Zim). Zim’s been less productive as of late and that’s hurt.

But really, lack of offense is going to be a problem when Nyjer’s playing like an outmachine, Guzman is regressing to career norms, Pudge is beginning slow regression to recent career norms, Bernadina is a work in progress, and Desmond’s a fragile rookie who could crater at any time.

Frankly, for our offense to be solid it depends on Morgan, Bernadina, and Desmond being solid contributors. Those are the 3 guy who may or may not be significant pieces on that great glorious day when Harper comes up in 2012 or 2013 and we should be expecting to contend.

Bernadina’s been solid, but not enough power. Looks more like CF than RF. We’re going to keep running Morgan out there and give him a bunch of time to work things out. Desmond is a rookie that may or may not break our hearts. His at bat in the Strasburg game with 1st base open certainly cost us offense and you hope that we’re enduring a learning experience this year for gains down the road with him.

Assuming we were to DFA Willie Harris and not bring up JMax because he “needs at bats” and is more than a platoon CF (not my thoughts, but probably their thoughts), what would you do with Willie’s roster spot?

Riggles has talked about platooning Morse with Bernadina. If it’s about production, Willie should be DFAed and we should be platooning Morse with Morgan and moving Bernadina to CF when we don’t play Morgan.

Cool Hand Lannan has carried the mail in anonymity for two years. He'll carry the mail for at least two more! Give the man some defense and he'll give you the world. MOAR GROUNDERZ! MOAR DOUBLE PLAYZ!

by souldrummer on Jun 24, 2010 4:48 PM EDT reply actions

Do you think Morse is back on the juice?

He suddenly gains a lot more power, and Riggles is sitting him. Seems like he’s protecting him….Maybe im paranoid…

The Shanahan era is going to bring the Redskins back to Glory! Great QB and an actual O-line.

by Horcasitas4 on Jun 24, 2010 5:16 PM EDT reply actions

The problem is becoming painfully obvious. (So is the solution.)

For whatever reasons, Nyjer Morgan is having a subpar year. He is failing at the plate. He is failing on the bases. He is failing in CF. He’s just not adding anything to the team at this point and he sure is subtracting a lot. Moving him to the no. 2 spot did not help. Really, if there were no alternatives to him in CF, Morgan should be moved to the no. 8 spot.

But there are alternatives. As mentioned, move Bernadina to CF as the main starter and put Morse in RF on most days. I don’t see Morgan deserving even spot starts at this point. He is playing worse than you would expect… from a backup player, let alone an everyday starter.

Willie Harris has become deadweight this year but at least he isn’t playing every day. Gonzalez can take his place as the super-utility guy, although Gonzalez has made a decent case for getting more starts at 2B, along with the occasional start at 3B when Zim gets a day off.

We’re just about at the halfway point of the season and Morgan still hasn’t done anything. I don’t see how the organization can stick with him after back-to-back 100-loss seasons. The Nats seemed to be turning the corner this year and becoming a respectable team, but that’s starting to slip away. The arrival of Strasburg has sparked nationwide interest in the Nats (at least every 5th game) and Bryce Harper is also earning the team some headlines. The Nats can build a larger fanbase but only if it looks like they are making progress. Having Strasburg as the ace on another 100-loss team just won’t cut it. Rizzo has already made some tough decisions this year. He and Riggleman need to make another tough one. Move Morgan out of the starting line-up as soon as possible.

I don’t know if he would do better being sent to Syracuse or staying on the bench. I doubt Morgan would be happy about being on the bench so Syracuse or a trade might be best. But who would want to trade for Morgan this year? .244/MLB lead in CS/questionable CF defense aren’t really strong selling points.

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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!

by Potomac Fan on Jun 24, 2010 7:16 PM EDT reply actions