Lucky Charm?
by PhDBrian on Jun 27, 2010 3:51 PM EDT
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PrintI was goofing around with some Nats box scores today and I noticed that the Nats only real period of winning coincided with Justin Maxwell being on the major league roster. That made me dive in a bit more.
When Jmax has played any part of a game the Nats are 13-7 (.650). Without him we are 20-35 (.363). That is a real big difference!
In games Jmax played in and we lost, he was on the field for the losing run only twice. Both games were blow outs 11-7 game on April 18 in which Marquis gave up 10 runs in the first inning. 10-4 game on April 20th in which Scot Olson gave up 3 homeruns. 4 of the other 5 loses jmax was brought in with the team behind. in the 5th loss we lost in the 13th on a blown play in right field by Guzman. Jmax had started and was pinch hit for earlier when we had a lead.
In games in which the Nationals lost and Jmax played he had 16 plate appearances. hit got 12 ABs, 4 walks and 3 hits so reached base safely .438 percent of the time. Oddly he has rarely helped the offense in wins. He had 1 hit (a game winning home run) in games we won and he appeared. 9 walks and one homerun in 30 plate appearances in wins (21 ABs).
Jmax has a UZR/150 in RF of +24. That is ungodly good.
I have no idea if any of this means anything more than weird streaks happen, but Jmax is a lucky charm with ungodly defensive skills. He has been offensively challenged when the team is already winning and a real tough out when we are losing in 2010.
Napoleon once said it was better to be lucky than good. Lets get JMax back on the major league roster just to see if we start winning again!!!
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Things really started falling apart when a certain pitcher showed up...
More lucky charms, less witches!!!
Don't Be A "Crow", Bryce... - P.R., Draft Day 2010
"...eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg"
Interesting thought.
The defense is small sample size, but he certainly looks like a plus defender. He’s been hitting somewhat better at AAA as well, but with his splits I still think he’s just a platoon player/defensive replacement. He’s an upgrade over Willie Harris and I think he’d be here right now if we were closer to contending. As it is, JMax is the kind of minor move that won’t make an earth shattering difference in our fortunes and DFAing Willie Harris might upset the lockerroom dynamics, I suppose.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I’d rather see him here than Willie Harris. Harris is hitting so far below the Mendoza line it’s not even funny. .150 average. That’s downright pathetic. That’s as bad as your typical pitcher batting ninth.
Rocking the Red since 1975
You're preaching to the choir here.
I’d rather see JMax than Willie Harris as well. I doubt that he’d accept the assignment if they DFAed him, and I almost wouldn’t want him to. He’s carried a lot of mail for the organization during lean times, and I hope that he would get a chance to be that small reserve piece to root for during the stretch run on a winning team.
JMax is old enough for me to have seen enough. He’s a plus defender and a platoon player that would help this team win. He’s unlikely to have the major leap in progress necessary to vault over Bernadina or Morgan or Willingham, so I’d like to see how he handles a platoon role and pinch hitting role on the big club as an audition for a roster spot for next year.
JMax is in danger of being branded solely a AAAA player than the part-time 4th outfielder his production seems to have warranted to this point. He could slump his way out of the majors by stinking to high heaven against righties in AAA when he could be working on channeling his rich man’s Ryan Langerhans today.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 27, 2010 11:06 PM EDT up reply actions
lucky charm 2
as a follow up, The Nats won .390 of the games JMax played any part in last season, but only .355 of the games in which he did not participate. however, we went 13-14 after September 1st when he played. Do since 9/1/2009 we are 26 and 21 when JMax is part of the game.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Are you a hockey guy who likes plus/minus?
Someone with better stats chops than me should figure out how JMax’s lucky charmness compares to other bones of contention among the part-time players for the Nats.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 28, 2010 12:07 AM EDT up reply actions
I am baseball mostly
I do not have enough time to follow other sports for the most part. I pay some attention to march madness, and I keep up with the NFL team from my youth somewhat. But I am fanatical about baseball.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I don't know whether to hope or dread that the team of your youth is the 'Skins.
I am a suffering ’Skins fan and recent Caps convert.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Although he is young, Bernadina does not impress me at all.
His defense is bad, and whenever I watch him he blows plays in rf that almost anyone else could make. his Career UZR/150 is worse than -10, but in my mind he plays worse. Sure he can hit right handers well, but man he sucks in the field.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
It's a real small sample size defensively, though isn't it?
To me, the deal with Bernadina is that it doesn’t look like the bat plays in right and it doesn’t look like the glove plays in center. Looking at the right field stats for RF, seems like he’s defensively neutral in RF, but much significantly worse in CF. In RF, he doesn’t have but so much power, although if he can continue at .780-.820OPS he remains an option for bridge to RF of the future Bryce Harper.
In CF, we are left to assume that the defense doesn’t play because clearly the bat is much better than Nyjer.
I believe Bernie + Maxwell + Morgan could be a workable platoon trio for CF/RF and be acceptable for a team that had the strong pitching that Stan Kasten claims is their higher priority.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 28, 2010 12:05 AM EDT up reply actions
Remember, UZR told us that Morgan was a "plus-plus" defender before season's beginning
This hasn’t turned out to be the case though, has it?
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
UZR and WAR and advanced stats differ sometimes and can't be taken as gospel truth.
I think Morgan’s plus-plus is merely plus going forward but not the minus we have going back. I think Bernie is average in RF and minus, hopefully not unplayably minus in center.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 28, 2010 12:45 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm just sayin'
Maxwell has been tagged “ungodly good” based on less than 200 innings at the position this year. That’s absurd. During the offseason, Brian also preached that Willie Harris was “TAWH” and needed to play every day because of his UZR. I just think that that stat either needs to be caveated to the nth degree EVERY SINGLE TIME IT’S USED, or simply tossed away completely, because to me arguments that use it are consistently unconvincing and usually quite dubious.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
I'm sorry,
that should have read “less than 100 innings”. In fact, it should read “less than 10 games”. Anyone who tries to tell you a corner outfielder is “ungodly good” on defense based on 10 games is …. well, … selling something.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
91 innings is not enough to say much of anything
J-Max has been plus with the glove in 350ish IP in the bigk which is encouraging. Let’s talk again after he has 1000 (or better yet, 2000).
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
not true
I have taken 15 credits of PHD level statistics and passed them while earning my PhD in finance (well I am ABD right now).
Assuming defense sits near a normal bell curve in distribution. The odds of a truely zero UZR/150 (dead average) player or worse getting lucky enough to get a 24 UZR/150 in 92 innings is less than 5%. therefore it is fair to say that it is likely that JMAX’s true talents defensively place him well above average at this time. What you can’t say is that Jmax’s true talents are very close to +24 UZR/150 with enough certainty. He is probably better or worse than that.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
interesting
And how many times have you had to say “well he was a plus guy last year but not this year” And vice versa. There is a reason we wait for three years of sample size for uzr…. I dont doubt that you know more about statistics than me in general, it’s your application of it to baseball that i’m not sure about.
I don't really care about your PhD classes
Your statistics are shaky.
90 innings of play in right field translates into roughly 30 CHANCES, the vast majority of those chances are completely routine. ONE good play made will skew the UZR way above 0, which will skew the UZR/150 way above 0.
In order to understand that, one doesn’t really need a PhD. But, by the way, I actually do.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
I'll try to not be quite so snarky...
As best as I can tell, the standard deviation for right fielders’ UZR/150 is a bit over 11 runs. Since Maxwell has only played one 15th of a season in right, the standard error for the sample should be nearly 4 times as large. That would more than cover a sample score of 24.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Wowsa. New avatar.
Now is that a Hagerstown Sun? Where does that sun shine from?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
It's my new sunny disposition
to help cancel out the frowny sadcats on the site.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Clowns are happy
See, I have a positive avatar, too!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
he has 352 innings in his roughly 3 year career
only 91 this season
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I'm not really sure you should add up all his OF innings like that,
(you are claiming his defense IN RIGHT FIELD is great, but he only has 91 innings in his career in RF) but even if it’s legit, 352’s still only about a quarter of a season, which is still a small enough sample to FTR the average-fielder hypothesis. I’m not claiming he’s merely average. I only take exception with the idea that his defense is “ungodly”.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
he was last season at least for a while
for whatever reason he has not been as good this season, but to be fair, Morgan’s plus defense was mostly earned over the second half of 2009. He was a minus defender during the first few months of last season as well. When he arrived last season his stats were nothing particularly great defensively. They were good and far better than what we had, but nothing great. It was his time with us that really set him apart. And anyone who watched those games had to agree the stats were right. While playing his 30 some odd games last season with the Nats he was in a serious defensive zone and it showed in his attitude. This season his attitude just does not seem the same. He just does not seem to have it like he did last season. My guess is something is fundamentally different. Like maybe he is not as healthy, or he fears injury more, or he was (or is) on something that is affecting his play.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I think it's attitude with Morgan
He did make some plays when he first arrived — perhaps he was eager to show the new team what he could do — and the fact that he was ABLE to make those plays helped his confidence to the point that he became even more aggressive in the field and was able to make some spectacular catches. Unfortunately, I think it works the other way, too. When he’s booted some of those plays, he’s become less confident, and more and more conservative with his approach. Have you seen how deeply he plays nowadays. He’s like 15 feet in front of the warning track in deep center, to even powerless hitters. This is making him an even worse fielder.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
I agree with your observations of Morgan
He is much more tentative than he was last season.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
90% is half mental?
I forget the exact statistics. This is my armchair-coach guess at the Problem with Plush. I have no idea how you fix, that though—sitting, platooning, going down to AAA, or running him back there.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Would a cardboard cutout image of Maxwell work?
If so, they could set one up in the dugout. When it comes to lucky charms, you never know how the rules operate. A cardboard stand-in might work just as well. At this point, we’re desperate. They should try everything to turn around the team’s fortunes.
-------------------------------------------------
"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
this team is in a tailspin and I am willing to try anything to turn that around.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
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