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The case against -- and for -- Nyjer Morgan (and Adam Kennedy too)
Every Nats fan is well aware of Nyjer Morgan's struggles this year, at the plate, on the bases and in the field. Despite having a good series against the Orioles, he is still hitting just .255 for the year. He has 16 stolen bases but he has been caught (or picked off) 11 times, a dreadful percentage. He makes the occasional spectacular play in CF but he cancels that out with poor plays on fly balls and on questionable decision-making on other plays (whether to throw home or hit the cutoff man, etc.).
Morgan took D.C. baseball fans by storm last year, hitting .351 over 49 games and stealing 24 bases in 31 attempts. The honeymoon has long since passed and now he is the target of increasing criticism, especially as the entire team is slumping badly as the All-Star Break nears.
What are the alternatives to Morgan, both in the field and in the line-up? Roger Bernadina has been hitting well this year, with an average of .284 and 5 HR in 52 games. He also has 6 stolen bases while getting thrown out twice. He has the speed to play CF plus he has a great throwing arm as we saw in Sunday afternoon's game. Michael Morse is a possibility in RF. He is hitting .340 with 3 HR in limited action.
In the line-up, Bernadina could also take Morgan's spot there and lead off. Morse could stay at the no. 7 spot. Ian Desmond could move up to the no. 2 spot. He has been slumping lately but it could be due to hitting low in the order. He is only hitting .239 in the 8th spot, .253 in the 7th spot. But he is hitting .353 when he has batted 2nd. Bernadina and Desmond could be a very potent combination in front of Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham.
The top brass of the Nationals are aware of Morgan's struggles but Jim Riggleman sounds like he's going to stick with Morgan for the time being. Morgan has a career batting average of .236 in May and .246 in June but career averages over .300 for July, August and September. Maybe he is simply a 2nd half player and he really will wake up and catch on fire for the team again. After watching three months of subpar play, it's hard to have much confidence in him but those numbers are very interesting.
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Nyjer Morgan isn't the only reason for the Nats' struggles this month. The entire team seems to disappear after the 4th or 5th inning, and not just against the Orioles. That can't be blamed entirely on Nyjer Morgan. Sluggers will have slumps, as Ryan Zimmerman is right now. Adam Dunn has been performing exceptionally, driving in runs and hammering tape-measure shots just like he's supposed to be doing.
One problem that could be fixed easily is Adam Kennedy. He has not seen much playing time this year with just 160 AB in the Nats' first 76 games. He was a full-time starter last year for Oakland. He doesn't appear to be handling his part-time status very well. Not only is he not hitting (.238 BA) but he is also making many mistakes in the field. He made another mental error in Sunday's game, throwing to 1B on an attempted double play off of a grounder that took its time getting to Zimmerman and a speedy runner racing down the 1B line. Kennedy should never have thrown the ball. He did so, with the result being a ball rolling into the dugout and the tying run scoring. This is not the first significant mental error Kennedy has made in recent weeks. Riggleman is trying to give Kennedy more playing time to keep his skills sharp but that strategy is backfiring. Kennedy is showing that he deserves less playing time, not more.
If he gets less playing time, who should pick up the slack? Easy decision -- Alberto Gonzalez. He is an outstanding defender. He filled in more than capably at 3B when Zimmerman was on the DL earlier this year. He provides great defense at 2B and SS. He hasn't been hitting as well in recent games but he had been hitting around .290-.300 for most of the season. The Nats don't need him for his offense. If he could hit .260-.270, that would be adequate. He would shore up the infield defense. If he had been playing 2B today and Desmond had been at SS, it's very possible that Baltimore doesn't score that 3rd run and the game might have played out differently. Gonzalez would probably have made fewer errors throughout the past three months than Kennedy has. Maybe Gonzalez is not ready to be the everyday 2B and spot starter at SS and 3B but I think he deserves far more playing time than he has been getting. And he needs to move up in the IF "rotation" ahead of Adam Kennedy.
Kennedy is playing himself out of a role altogether on this team. The 2010 Nats are not good enough to overcome all of these errors. Yes, Ian Desmond has been making some errors lately but he looks to be a mainstay at SS for many years to come, so it makes more sense to let him struggle and learn. That can pay off in later seasons. But Kennedy is not a key part of the long-term plans of the team. The organization paid out a decent amount of money for him last off-season but I don't think that's a good enough reason to play him over Gonzalez. Might it be time to cut losses and put Kennedy at the far end of the bench where he would only come in for emergency situations (an injury to another IF)? Or even release him? Maybe. That could also provide a jolt to the rest of the team and wake them up.
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DFA Kennedy, more platooning in CF and RF, but no more Morgan and Guz both at the top of the order...
and maybe neither of them….
Don't Be A "Crow", Bryce... - P.R., Draft Day 2010
"...eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg"
There should be a status quo option here.
I don’t have that much of a problem with what we’re doing right now. Kennedy pretty much spells Guzman occasionally against righties. I’d rather not see him in the two spot when we do that, but I am not enough of a believer in Gonzalez against righties to play him against righties over Kennedy. Just checked his stats. Gonzalez has a .454OPS against righties and a .962OPS against lefties this year. HIs career splits are .563OPS against righties and .879OPS against lefties. So Kennedy is probably a better options against righties offensively than Gonzalez. Kennedy has .589OPS against righties this year. Small sample size must be playing because he’s hit better against lefties in few at bats against lefties, 869OPS in only 21 at bats. Career wise his OPS is .740 against righties and .640 against lefties.
Kennedy’s fine for me as a spot starter against righties and a backup plan for a full-time job in the great scenario where we’re able to trade Guzman and cash for a C prospect rather than let him walk for nothing. If you want more ABs for Gonzalez, let him fill in for Desmond occasionally like he did today. He’s got a better arm and better range than Guzman.
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On the Nyjer front, I don’t have a radical problem with what we’re doing because we’re not a contending team and you want to give all of your assets a chance to show what they have before you give up on them. We might have pulled the trigger on a Bernie deal when he was struggling and waving at every curve ball off the plate. By sticking with him we learned that his bat may actually play on a regular basis. If we were in a race and had an RF option, it would make sense to platoon Nyjer with JMax or sit Nyjer for Bernie. We’re not so I have no problem banking on him to be a better second half player and show us that he has some value.
In the long term (2012-2013), the Nats are planning on Harper to be able to play right and one of the youngsters (Burgess in high A, Hood, Higley, Perez, or Higley in low A) to show that they can contribute in the outfield as well. I don’t have a problem with Nyjer as a transitional option, although I would prefer if he was batting 7th or 8th in the order if we had more options with high OBP.
Outside of batting Bernadina 2nd and platooning Nyjer with Morse more often than platooning Bernie with Morse I’m fine with the outfield decisions given the weaknesses on the roster.
You can’t undo Bowden’s bad drafts and bad contracts in one year, and you hope that they will show progress of 10-20 wins this year and continue to make progress.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
when did gonzalez earn a decent defender tag at second?
he was downright dreadful in that role last season and has a negative UZR at second this season if I am remembering correctly.
Kennedy is the same player we signed. he is performing nearly identical to last season. Which is bad, but he is the best player we have anywhere at second unfortunately.
As for Nyjer. he is the same guy as years past as well. As a Pirate he was always a bad first half player, but a dominating second half player. I see not reason why he wont be again.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
sorry that is NO reason not not reason lol
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I believe he earned a decent defender...
…because his name is not Guzman or Kennedy who have both been godawful defensively and major contributors to our lead league in errors.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 27, 2010 11:55 PM EDT up reply actions
Just going by what I've seen and by other comments
I don’t follow UZR numbers that much. Besides, I’ve heard many people here say that UZR is only relevant over a large sample of games, possibly as much as two years’ worth.
Yesterday, the MASN announcers said that Gonzalez was the best natural infielder on the team, even better than Zimmerman. From what I’ve seen so far this year (in Gonzalez’s limited starts), I didn’t laugh at that statement. Even if that might be an exaggeration, I think he is or can be a decent 2B.
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
by Potomac Fan on Jun 28, 2010 11:36 AM EDT up reply actions
Nyjer's struggles aren't due to a simple first half slump
The problem is that he’s bunting too much. No, it’s true.
Last year, he had 14 bunt hits in 38 attempts, good for an almost 37% success rate. This year he has 4 bunt hits in 30 attempts… good for a 13% success rate. I’m not sure if fangraphs differentiates betweens sacs and bunting for base hits, so, to be fair, some of these may have been straight sacs…. Even still… he is attempting to bunt Wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy to much this year, and when he does bunt, he is not reaching base nearly as often as he did last year
And just as an aside: A guy with his speed should never be sacrafice bunting (im against bunting in general unless you are a pitcher) He should be working his way on base as a stolen base threat… ugh… we wont get started on that…
Too true.
Also, Morgan almost always “shows bunt” for at least one pitch during an at-bat, and for whatever reason that pitch turns out to be a hittable strike. I hate that. Worse, it seems to be contagious, as nowadays nearly everybody in the lineup does it (Dunn??!!) at least occasionally. Maybe that’s Eckstein’s fault.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Another problem is that he only bunts down the 3B line...
or straight at the pitcher. He rarely drag-bunts. He would have more success if he could do that.
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
The point in showing bunt is to get the infielders to move up
which increases the likelihood of a single dramatically. Showing bunt is only effective if you actually do bunt successfully sometimes. In Njers case, I think increase in actual bunting is likely because his results from putting the ball in play are worse, thus he is bunting more trying to better his odds.
Brett butler was one of the greatest bunters of modern times. He had 40 bunt hits in 1992 (in 67 attempts) which is the all time record for one season, and he lead the league in bunting for base hits many times. During his career, if he showed bunt during an at bat, and did not bunt, he batted well over .300, whereas in at bats he did not show bunt he batted only .240 (career BA is .290) (he was not much of an RBI man). So, showing bunt with a credible threat can really work for some players.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
im not sure but it seems likely that
he wasnt being played to bunt as much in previous years… if they expect you to bunt, and you bunt… dosent seem like much of a challenge.
If this is the case, the bunting is killing him just by the act of trying to lay one down
You have to hit the ball on the ground past the 3B and go the other way to benefit from that.
I see low line drives and grounders through the right side when he’s hitting well mostly. Basically, if he’s going to bunt more he needs to work on the drag bunt down the first base line.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Just saw the encore broadcast of Monday's game
Another pickoff at 1B for Nyjer Morgan. Not good.
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
Nope. Not good at all.
Nyjer had bat at bats, missed a cutoff man, and got picked off early in the game and didn’t bounce back with heady plays later on. I’m just glad to see Bernadina picking things up. At the start of the season I’d have thought the production would be reversed. His leadoff double should have translated into the big hit to get the offense started. Too bad the guys behind him weren’t able to get the job done.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 29, 2010 12:00 AM EDT up reply actions
It's worse than I thought
According to an AP article, the stats for getting picked off 1B and getting caught while stealing are separate categories. So Nyjer Morgan has been caught stealing 11 times PLUS he has now been picked off 7 times. Is this true? If so, that’s beyond dreadful. 16 stolen bases but 18 times caught stealing/picked off 1B? Yikes!
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
It's almost true
As I understand it, you can get picked off and caught stealing in the same play. The difference is if you get picked off and make a run for second, then if you get tagged out there, you are also caught stealing. I don’t know if this has happened with Morgan though.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
I think that has happened at least once or twice this year
But last night was a standard picked-off at 1B play.
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!
Could Morgan be hitting his stride again?
Nyjer Morgan has career averages over .300 for July, August and September, as mentioned above. Could he be getting hot as we head into the second half of the season? Over his last 6 games, he is batting .320 with an OBP of .393. He has two stolen bases in three attempts. Not great but a better percentage than previously.
I still don’t understand how he can make so many mental mistakes on the bases and in the field but if he hits like he did last year in the final 3 months of 2010, then he could make a big difference for the offense. I just don’t understand why it takes him 3 months to “warm up” every year. It’s nice to have a solid leadoff hitter for 3 months of the year but why can’t he do that in April, May or June?
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"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!

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