The Key to the Nationals Defensive Demise

Though I think it’s a teamwide issue. Both Guz and Kennedy can be accused of mental errors (bad choices) and physical ones. Desmond and Zim contribute with mainly physical errors. Desmond will, presumably, improve. Mental errors are hard to overcome, and are harder to tolerate emotionally. Center field defense has also been shaky, as Morgan has been getting bad breaks on balls, and has begun to play way too deep as he seems afraid of giving up any more ITP homers.

Have you separated out Guzman’s stats while he’s at 2B from his stats while he’s at SS? He’s been the primary replacement for Desmond at SS so there are some games when both he and Kennedy have been on the field at the same time. Likewise, both have some PH at bats and Kennedy has played a smattering of first as a defensive replacement for Dunn.

We’re in Guzman contract jail at 2B for the moment, and we should be freed from that next year. Really, we’re just looking for a stopgap at 2B for the next year or two and Eckstein may be a potentially good option for that. In the long run, 2B is not high on my list of worries because Espinosa appears to be a legit affordable prospect and Lombardozzi and Kobernus are not out of the question as passable options if that doesn’t work out. Lombardozzi should get a go at the AA Eastern League next year.

For both, the example is pretty small, each getting about 70 chances at their respective positions. But more than anything that just reinforces that fact that Guzman and Kennedy should be utility infielders not second basemen. We need a true second baseman, like Eckstein, to give the Nationals a defensive boost while they develop a second baseman through the farm system.

A guy who never gets to a ball can’t make an error on it. Plus, the biggest fielding mistakes are often called hits. nonetheless, we are far from a stellar defensive team.

Entering this season I had very pessimistic views of this teams ability to field. I argued against Dunn playing first and being traded instead for infield prospects. Dunn is much better than I expected defensively (my expectations were very low), but he is still bad for sure. I argued that Kennedy was a bad defender with a weak bat, but better than what we played at second last season (true). I also argued that Guzman’s salary made him untradable, so converting him to a second basemen was likely our best short term option among poor choices. He would be somewhat in the vicinity of an average 2B UZR wise and is solid offensively for a second basemen. (UZR at second is -1.4 which is statistically insignificant from average, and his bat is ok). So none of our poor play surprises me much.

In reality this team is actually better defensively than it was last season by quite a lot (13th in the league compared to 30th last season). That is not to say that we do not have a long way to improve. At the end of April we were the 4th best defensive team and have steadily fallen since. Zimmerman is the best defender at third in baseball. He is really helping our team stats a ton. Willingham, Pudge, Harris, Nieves, and JMax have all played at average or better defensive levels this season as well (though some have not hit much). And as stated above, Guzman is not as bad as you guys think because he gets to slightly more than his fair share of balls defensively at second according to UZR. Morgan despite his all round terribleness is better than Millage or Dukes were last year. So, basically we are much better just about everywhere than last season, we just are not good enough yet. Sorry if that does not give you guys hope!

is that other than Zimmerman and Hammer every player has something he does badly enough to be really frustrating. Jmax and Harris are by all statistical measures much better defending corner outfielders than are typical, but weaker hitters. Desmond has above average range and an ok bat for a SS, but has a habit of making dumb mental errors with the baseball in his hand (was known for it in the minors). Guzman refuses to walk and also has a tendency for dumb mental mistakes with the ball in his hand. Morgan made us love him during the hottest streak of his career last season (fangraphs felt it was luck), but then regressed far more than expected this season (fangraphs is calling this bad luck at least offensively). Nieves can’t hit at all. Pudge is old and fragile, etc,etc.

I love them anyway!

On the defensive problems of the Nats, here are some of my observations:

1) Guzman is a natural shortstop but not a natural second baseman. Seems he does not have much range at 2nd base.

2) Both Desmond and Zimmerman seem to make errors on spectacular plays; they make a great play to stop a hit and mess up the throw. Morgan, for that matter, has tended to screw up on difficult plays as well.