Chicago Sun-Times: Chicago White Sox "...Specifically Targeting Washington Nationals' Adam Dunn."
The story we've been discussing for several weeks here is now national news. Here's ESPN.com's Buster Olney's (@Buster_ESPN) Twitter take on the Nats' upcoming decision:
"The Nats have reached crossroads with Adam Dunn:Sign him or trade him. If a trade, the White Sox are a great fit; Sun-Times says talks began."
Here's the Chicago Sun Times' article entitled, "Dunn deal has appeal", by the Sun Times' Joe Cowley that Mr. Olney references, in which Mr. Cowley writes:
"Dunn's name has gained steam in the rumor mill, with the Nationals now willing to part ways with their free-agent-to-be first baseman and try to build a talented group of young arms around pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg."
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Starting to post more at Sickels' Minor League Ball
Quote of interest is below:
White Sox- I can’t believe there’s a worse system than this.
Minor league hitter of the year – Not a standout name here, will probably be one of the Dash trio Jon Gilmore/Brandon Short/Justin Greene
Minor league pitcher of the year – Dan Hudson/Carlos Torres
Most improved hitter – Trayce Thompson. He probably won’t play again this year but his improvement from last year is remarkable. Big time power.
Most improved pitcher – Nobody jumps out again. Maybe Nevin Griffith.
Biggest impact in the majors this season, now or later – Sergio Santos. Dan Hudson if you want someone not currently in the Majors.
Biggest disappointment(s) – Jordan Danks, I didn’t have huge expectation but he has been awful. Jared Mitchell’s injury was obviously a huge disappointment. C.J. Retherford has also been disappoint, especially after his strong spring.
Breakout season(s) – Hasn’t been a good year for the system, I guess Dayan Viciedo’s .855 OPS can count as something of a breakout. Nevin Griffith/Brandon Short maybe.
Keep an eye on – Miguel Gonzalez, David Holmberg, Steven Upchurch, Darwin Matos, Ryan Buch
http://twitter.com/FutureSox
http://FutureSox.comby The Big Hurt on Jun 26, 2010 6:05 AM PDT reply actions
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
So... Dunn's a great fit for the Sox...
…but the Sox have no one who’s a great fit for the Nats?
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Judging by the article and the comments I've read....
…the Angels farm system seems to be far stronger. Still, it’s good to have them interested. Getting multiple American League teams in the sweepstakes would be the best policy. It pains me to say this, but the ideal situation may be for the Rays to fall back in the standings a little bit.
You wonder if they’d be more inclined to move Upton and you wonder whether we’d want him. Personally, I don’t, but he was mentioned in the right field debate earlier on.
Rays > Angels > White Sox when it comes to farm systems in the AL who may have interests in Dunn.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jun 29, 2010 10:29 AM EDT up reply actions
Nats have one player on the team who is hitting the ball well right now
and he’s the guy everyone wants to trade.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Heh...
Been looking around, I doubt the Angels would give him away but LA OF Prospect Mike Trout is third in Keith Law’s newest list of Minor League Prosects…The Nats seem to want pitching…but an MLB-ready OFer would be nice:
Here’s Mr. Law’s link for Insider’s only, Trout’s third on the list:
@keithlaw: New post for Insiders – updating the top 25 prospects in the minors: http://klaw.me/9C8AND
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 1:13 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well yeah.... an MLB-ready OF would be nice
But Trout is 18 and playing in A ball. Would I absolutely see the value in adding Trout? Sure. He’d certainly strengthen the farm system and give us a guy we could hope to see in mid-2012. He’d be a nice haul as the primary option in a deal with the Angels, but he’s far from MLB-ready. I don’t think the Angels would part with him anyway.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 29, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Hey...
…the Chi Sox helped build the Padres surprising season with their willingness to part with prospects. They should share the wealth and gut the ashes of their farm system if they want to make a run at Dunner.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I trust Rizzo to get fair value.
Can I assume there’s no shot Dunn would accept arbitration and screw the Nats plans of getting draft picks?
Can he go to arbitration?
Someone brought that up in an earlier post but I haven’t heard it discussed anywhere else?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 1:25 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes they do, not thinking straight...
Lot of stupid stuff going on, the team has to offer arbitration to get the comp picks.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 2:28 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
The chances are remote.
Arbitration means a 1 year deal. If Dunn would like to sign a 1 year deal for the privilege of going through this dog and pony show next year, be my guest. The issue with resigning Dunn is the years more than the money. He’s probably going to want 3 and we shouldn’t want to give him 3.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
The arbitration may be more relevant for Capps, though.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
The only way that Dunn would accept arbitration
Would be if he falls apart in the second half of the season. The assumption is that the Nats would offer him somewhere in the vicinity of $11 or $12 million on a one year deal. Logic would dictate that the only way Dunn would accept arbitration is if he didn’t feel like he’d get a better deal signing as a free agent (be it with the Nats or someone else). I have to think that he’d currently be looking at $13-$15 million over multiple seasons if he continues to play well.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 29, 2010 4:31 PM EDT up reply actions
@Ken_Rosenthal on Nats/Dunn:
Ken_Rosenthal: Latest notes column: http://tinyurl.com/2u2fwut:
“The Nationals give no indication that they are willing to trade first baseman Adam Dunn; all they have said publicly is that they want to sign him to a contract extension.”
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 2:06 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
if they do let go Dunn to the Sox..
Then who would the Sox let go that would be an equal factor for the Nats??
by LJchamp on Jun 29, 2010 2:39 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Nats fans looking around all morning and no one seems to be able to find something...
At least not with adding young guys already on major league roster…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 2:41 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Difficult to project what exactly would be involved in a deal with the White Sox
- Word has it that Tyler Flowers has fallen out of favor a bit with their organization, but I don’t see the Nats considering C a priority in this deal. Excluding the unsigned (new “He who must not be named”), Derek Norris is the top position prospect in the Nats’ system. Flowers would certainly be up quicker than Norris, but Norris seems the better all-around prospect. Pudge is signed through next year, and he and Flores (alright…. maybe I shouldn’t have any faith in Flores ever getting healthy) seem to be enough to hold the fort.
- Jordan Danks would have been their best hitting prospect close to the majors (well… maybe Dayan Viciedo, who is already in the majors, and who I think they’d hold onto tighter). He’s been a massive disappointment in Charlotte this year. There’s some projectable power (23 doubles last year between A+ and AA… 21 this year in AAA. 27 of his 68 hits this season have been for extra bases) and some decent speed. Honestly, though, he’s a guy who looks like he needs to take a big step forward or become a fourth OF type once he hits the majors. Could he be a secondary piece? Sure…. Could he be the headliner? Not unless the Nats were to really screw the pooch.
- It’d be incredibly difficult to see them moving Viciedo. He raked in AAA this season before the callup (.290, 14 HR in 238 AB), though he’s not real patient at the plate (8:52 walk to strikeout ratio). He’s a 3b by trade, but if he were to headline a deal, he’d likely move across the diamond. Don’t see it.
- The only real headliner who would seem to be a good fit is Daniel Hudson. A bit of an overachieving prospect, he doesn’t throw anything spectacular, but has three pitches that project as average to above average big league pitches (low 90s fastball, mid-80s slider, low-80s change…. tosses an occasional looping curveball into the mix). He blew through four levels in his second pro season last year, getting a cup of coffee in the big leagues late. Nice solid performance in AAA so far this season, with a 3.83 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, and a 97:27 strikeout to walk ratio in 82 innings. He’s 10-3 on the year, but that’s essentially meaningless.
Dunn’s obviously a rental player, but you’d have to think Rizzo makes sure that he’ll get more than what the draft pick compensation would net.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 29, 2010 5:16 PM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
On the plus side
Kenny Williams has been known to overpay a bit. It’s worked out fairly well for them anyway, so if he really thinks Dunn is the missing piece of the puzzle on the South Side, he’ll probably be willing to step up and give the Nats a bigger haul than many would expect.
The down side remains that there’s just not a lot of depth in their system.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 29, 2010 5:20 PM EDT up reply actions
+1
As always, you better duck when blueline brings the heat. I, for one am a convert, to the Sell Dunn lobby based on what I have seen to this point. You planted a seed that grew during the stinkitude that I have witnessed during interleague and last night. Let’s just say the seeds of selling are fertilized with manure.
Good analysis on the prospects. Daniel Hudson would be of interest and if the deal doesn’t include that it sounds like we shouldn’t be anxious for the White Sox to be the trade partner. It sounds to me like we want the Chi Sox to enter the sweepstakes so that the Angels aren’t bidding against themselves and so the Angels have a potential playoff foe or wildcard contender to worry about improving themselves as well.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
to accept prospects for such a proven commodity is, to me
something that a sucker gm would do. I really dont think we are as far away as I know many of you do.
Do you feel we will be ready in 2011?
I’m saying that we are trying to accept prospects who are cheap and controllable and will be likely contributing in MLB by 2012. And additionally, I would be ticked if the Lerners just pocket the money saved by not resigning Dunn. You’ve got an extra 12Mill in salary from this year to work on resigning Hammer if you choose to do that or finding other interim assets to keep the team competitive. You might even be able to flip the prospects to KC for the coveted David DeJesus, move Bernadina to center, and send Nyjer Morgan to that great Bucco ship in the sky if you want to win now. There’s a lot of ways to skin the cat and if we can get close to MLB ready prospects for Dunn it’s worth considering.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Mind you, players generally considered a bit more valuable (in a couple of cases, at least)
But I’ll bet that’s exactly what Rangers fans were saying before they traded Mark Teixeira……….. for Elvis Andrus, Neftali Feliz, Matt Harrison, and Jarrod Saltalamacchia
I’ll bet that’s exactly what A’s fans were thinking when Billy Beane swapped Nick Swisher to the White Sox for Gio Gonzalez, Ryan Sweeney, and Fautino de los Santos
I’ll also bet that’s what they said when the A’s dealt Mark Mulder to the Cardinals for Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, and Daric Barton
I’m sure Indians fans were pissed when they dealt the Expos Bartolo Colon, and I don’t need to bring up the return there (it’s too painful)
The Padres fans didn’t want them to move Jake Peavy, but I get the feeling they don’t hold it against Clayton Richard or Adam Russell, and while they haven’t seen Poreda yet (this was only last year), he’s destroying AAA.
It’s worked out for plenty of sucker GMs in the past, and it’s also backfired on quite a few I’m sure. I will say this, though. The most comparable situation I can see regarding Dunn is that of Jim Thome in 2002 with the Indians. Slugging first baseman with slightly better all-around production than Dunn…. also a guy who projected better as a DH, as he wasn’t much of a fielder. 2002 was Thome’s Age 31 season.
Rumors spread all year about Thome as the Indians were well out of the race. He continually said he wanted to stick around through the rebuilding process and that he loved Cleveland. While it’s not necessarily through any fault of his own (as far as I remember, the Indians barely even pursued re-signing him, though they put the face on that said they were trying to), Thome signed with Philadelphia in the offseason anyway. Their return? They got the Phillies’ 18th overall pick (which they used to select RF Brad Snyder). They selected Adam Miller in the compensation round.
Miller was, for a time, one of their top prospects. Big arm, good stuff. Blew his arm out three years ago and didn’t pan out.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 29, 2010 7:11 PM EDT up reply actions
+ interesting
But I think the comparison points for us will be the last Dunn trade (which didn’t work but so well for the Reds unless you love you some Micah Owings) and the Soriano package for the Nats.
Resign him before free agency or sell him, but please do not give us some rebuilding BS and just let him walk for the picks. I can understand either way if they pursue the strategy to the fullest.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
COLON!!!!
Too bad Sox gave up so much in the Peavy trade…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jun 29, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
your analogies here arent really apt
for different reasons. teix and peavy dont work because you are not getting the same payment for a dunn as you would get for a peavy or a teixera.. Swisher dosent work because, though he is a good player, he is not an indespensible one… Mark Mulder got hurt.. etc etc… and the Thome deal is EXACTLY why i dont like dealing for prospects…. they have no track record, who knows what will happen to them?
This baffles me.
You’re saying that Swisher isn’t indispensable? You’re saying that Mulder got hurt?
So doesn’t that mean the A’s won those trades and shouldn’t teams try to do that again? If Swisher, who seems to me to be inferior to Dunn netted a good haul, isn’t it worth fully exploring what we could get in return. As always, I point to the concerns I have about how we go about gaining in our division in the long term when we have 3 teams ahead of us with more resources and at least 1 with a farm system that is far superior to ours in the Braves.
If we’re going to spend for Dunn, we need to be all in with spend to win and they have to be very aggressive in free agency, especially pitching to continue to make improvement. I feel that it’s more cost effective to focus on trying to build a reservoir of top 100 prospects who demonstrate likely future combinatios at the major league level by mastering AA.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Point taken on Tex and Peavy
Which led to the “Mind you, players that are generally considered a bit more valuable” atop the post.
The Pads got two guys already producing. The player generally considered the top one they got (Poreda) is cleaning up in AAA right now. Dexter Carter’s been a disappointment so far for them….. Still, looking at Peavy (again, higher value than Dunn), the Padres got four potentially useful young players for him, two of which were big league ready immediately.
The Rangers definitely cleaned up in the Tex deal, even if Salty hasn’t panned out as well as they’d hoped. Both deals saw four prospects, including two or three elite level guys, dealt. The chances that the Nats could get one elite level type and a solid prospect or two are pretty damn good.
Mulder got hurt… etc., etc., – Lost in this statement is the fact that in the first season after the deal, Haren was already better than Mulder. Calero wasn’t a prospect, but a solid bullpen arm (who set up for them for the next few seasons). Barton took a little while to develop. Again, I live in St. Louis, and I was baffled when Walt Jocketty pulled the trigger. Whether Mulder stayed healthy or not, Oakland came out ahead in this deal.
Swisher is a lesser player than Dunn, for sure. Don’t get me wrong, he’s really solid, and was at the time of the deal. I don’t see how this bolsters your point though. The A’s got a top notch young starter (Gio Gonzalez), a big-league ready CF (Ryan Sweeney), and de los Santos, who still has big league potential. De los Santos did get hurt five starts into the 2008 season, so we’ll see how the total return works out for the A’s in that deal. I’d say that Gio and Sweeney alone would mean that they did pretty well…. again, this is a player you’re saying is worse than Dunn, though? And the A’s got a mid-end starter, a potential front-line starter, and a big-league ready starting OF for him? Again, Oakland (the team dealing the proven player) came out ahead in this deal.
The Thome comment doesn’t bolster the argument either. My point in the post above was that the Indians did not deal Thome in a situation that clearly indicated that it might not be such a bad idea. Instead, they held onto him amid rumors that he’d like to re-sign with them and stick around through what figured to be a rebuilding process. Those players that I mentioned above (Adam Miller & Brad Snyder) were the players that they used said compensation draft picks (pick #18 in the first round…. pick #1 in the compensation/sandwich round) when Thome (a Type A Free Agent) signed with the Phillies.
When I’m implying that you trade for prospects rather than the crapshoot of the draft, I’m pointing to the fact that the prospects you’d be trading for do have a (albeit not a big league one, but a professional one at least) track record, rather than drafting amateurs based solely on projectability. Their expected ascent to the big leagues is liable to happen more quickly, and you have a better idea of what they’re capable of when they get there.
Can the Nats re-sign Dunn? Sure… Are they trying to? Probably (indications certainly say they have tried in the media, but the Thome thing was brought up to show that lip service could be applicable here)… Is it a sure thing? Absolutely not.
by bluelineswinger on Jun 30, 2010 7:07 PM EDT up reply actions
you cant
call gio gonzalez a ‘top notch’ anything at this point in his career… he hasn’t been good so far. Sure, his ERA is okay this year, but his bb/9 is over 4, his k/9 is sub 8… his xfip is 4.34… he simply walks too many and dosent strike out enough.
youre talking about players… prospects, most of whom have not even sniffed the major leagues yet… how can you possibly assess a deal based on what a guy is doing on triple A?
also, swisher was not a proven player at the time of that deal… swisher had had 3full seasons( 2 good ones) at the time. Dunn has been doing his thing for the better part of 7 years.
I think the problem here is
as it has been all along, people underrate dunn’s value. This leads to fans wanting to trade him, but it also leads to other teams who are not going to pay what he is worth
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