Willingham Trade Proposal

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/san-diego-padres-top-10-prospects/

Forsythe (2nd) and Poreda (8th) are among the Padres 10 best prospects. Mujica and Hairston are already in the majors and contributing. Just so you know I’m not just offering garbage.

I only have time for a quick glance, but I’d probably take it.

Mujica is the type of reliever the Nats could probably throw into a set-up or closing role, pump up his value, and sell high on him to a contender in the next few years.

Hairston looks better as a 4th OF but the Nats could flip him to a contender this year. The Nats have acquired guys like Luis Atilano and Shairon Martis for worse guys than Hairston.

Forsythe would be a nice get for the Nats. His loss of power is a little scary, but if he can play 2B, it doesn’t worry me quite so much. Getting him could allow the Nats to send down Desmond for more seasoning or trade Guzman (if anyone would eat his salary that is).

Poreda is intriguing. His stock is dropping with his control problems, but he’s still worth a shot at fixing.

If the Nats move Willingham, this is the type of package I’d look for. You get 4 players (3 with considerable upside) that are ML-ready or close to it. Forsythe and Mujica are both guys that look to be solid MLers for a long time, while Poreda could hit or miss. Hairston is more or less a replacement for Willingham or could bring back some sort of return if they wanted to move him.

I’m willing to sell Dunn. I’m willing to sell Capps. I’d consider selling Clippard.

In focusing on trade proposals, we want trades that are dense rather than broad. We’re not looking for deals that net us guys like Atilano or Martis anymore. Our drafts and former moves are replete with 4/5 starter types. We are full of solid pitching minor league teams with low ceiling low floor starters and I’m not interested in flipping Hairston. Likewise, this year has shown us that we have the capacity to address some bullpen issues in house and with affordable out of house solutions. Clippard and Storen are going to be the core of a bullpen going forward. We control Capps for next year, and I believe that relievers in the minors may be capable of contributing as back end bullpen pieces going forwards. I’m not interested in guys that project as relievers. I’m not really interested in 4th OF types.

Forsythe and Poreda sound like decent prospects, but they are in spots that are not but so much of a need for us. I believe in Danny Espinosa as our 2B of the future by 2012.

In dealing Willingham, you have to remember 2 things:
1) We want prospects who project to be major league impact players in 2012, either as likely 2-3 starters or as power or high OBP bats. Bullpen guys and mere cost controlled regulars aren’t what’s going to help us make progress on the Braves. We have to start contending by 2012 or the Harper/Strasburg stories will be stale and people will start talking about how even these phenoms aren’t leading to season tickets and the DC market is doomed and they are going to move on to the Yankees or the Padres when their contracts are up.

2) We consider the starting point for Willingham to be the shrewder version of the Jason Bay deal. Willingham’s production compares favorably to Jason Bay’s production at half the price over the last two years and we want better prospects in areas of need than the Pirates received for a comparable player who is affordable. We don’t have to trade him. We don’t really want to trade him, and you have to blow us away to get him. The Nats should be content to hold onto Willingham who is arbitration eligible and under team control for next year and move him at next year if we continue to struggle.

Looking at Poreda, the Padres have already decided to convert him to a reliever it appears. I don’t trust us to magically transform into a 3 starter. Middle infield is a place where the Nats believe that they can drafted well and have invested recent picks in Espinosa at AA, Lombardozzi at high A, and Kobernus at low A. Forsythe’s bat didn’t play at 3B from what I understand (or was he blocked?) and so you are moving him to 2B at a defensive risk. Nats fans are tired of suspect defense at 2B. Championships are not based off of setup relievers so Mujica’s not but so much value. Hairston’s a decent player, but I don’t see how he’s going to solve our needs. If Hairston was the answer, you wouldn’t be asking for Willingham as a major upgrade.

I don’t think you guys are going to part with Simon Castro. I don’t think I’m a believer in Pelzer.

I look at the Nats and the weaknesses I see are a lot of questions for 2/3 starter and a lack of OBP guys to be on base for Zimmerman, Dunn, and Hammer, especially in CF and 2B. I don’t think what you’re offering addresses that.

Forsythe was rated 2nd at Fangraphs, but 7th at Sickels. I trust Sickels more than Fangraphs. Poreda was rated 8th at Fangraphs but 10th at Sickels. He may be moving up, though, because it looks like he’s been a lights out reliever at AAA. How do we sell trading Willingham when for a deal when the centerpiece of the deal is a power reliever when we believe we’ve just answered that by need by annointing Drew Storen the closer of the future?

Impact arms is one of them, but subtract too much hitting and you diminish the overall chance for increasing the curly Ws.

JMHO.

conveniently sums up my own view on this topic (well, not 100% but close enough). No arguement that “impact arms” are important. Marquis was supposed to be one of those (and he was, but in a completely negative way). Also Wang. And Detwiler, Zimmermann, Olson… the list goes on. Pitchers’ general fragility seems both an argument for obtaining more arms, and a caution against focusing exclusively, or excessively, on that area.

  Two words resonate here: run support. The Nationals already have Impact Arm Numero Uno on board, and healthy (knock on wood). But the team’s been shut out in his last two starts. Eroding the team’s offensive nucleus could boomerang, perhaps catastrophically.

Anyway, once Zimmermann, Olson, etc. get healthy the rotation could be more than decent. Additional help would still be nice, but probably obtainable without bidding adios to Donkey or Josh.