A Look at the 2013 Nationals at John Sickels
by souldrummer on Jul 20, 2010 5:17 PM EDT
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We're currently in a serious case of organizational introspection approaching the trade deadline as we assess the value of the pieces of our 70-win pace team. Rizzo has to look at our farm system and look at the offers being placed on his table. He has to look at the major league pieces and assess what players have done with the opportunities they have been given. We have at least one disappointment (Nyjer Morgan), one to be continued (Ian Desmond), and one exceeded expectations (Roger Bernadina). We clearly have some weaknesses in our rotation that need to be addressed. As Nats fans, however, we can have a bit of organizational narrowmindedness. We can tend to overvalue our guys that are fan favorites or undervalue guys who have made key boneheaded plays that aren't statistically significant but have cost key games. We often lack the time to properly assess other organizations top to bottom to get a sense of how our prospects compare to other team's prospects, especially teams outside the NL East. One thing that can be helpful is looking outside of the organization for other assessments on are overall organizational talent. Satchel Price at Minor League Ball (John Sickels) and Beyond the Box Score has done an organizational assessment of the Nats, and I think that it provides a good objective starting point for assessing our system as we contemplate the best moves for the front office during deadline season. My thoughts on this analysis after the jump.
2) Key components of the present team would cost a lot more in 2013. Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham cannot be included in looking at the 2013 Nats because they aren't under contract. Even Zimmerman will probably be clamoring for an extension in the final year of his contract. If you think the selling discussion over Dunn is fierce, imagine what it would be for Zim in 3 years.
3) We may be overvaluing some of our prospects. Jordan Zimmermann, Derek Norris, and Danny Espinosa do not get the type of respect elsewhere that they do in Natstown. They are seen as quality prospects for sure, but people don't look at them as locks for the Top 50 anymore and they are not followed nearly as closely elsewhere as they are here.
4) Three players that I have all but given up on are mentioned as potential pieces. Waiting for leap forward Chris Marrero at 1B, flawed Michael Burgess, and dual identity Stammen are included as best present options for 2013.
5) We lack rotation depth. We really, really, really lack rotation depth. Brad Meyers was chosen as the fifth starter candidate (after Strasburg, Zimmermann, Detwiler, and Stammen). He's hurt. He's not thought very highly of, and he may be worse than AJ Morris today.
I hope that people will view this fanpost, and rec it (rec'd Fanposts are surfaced) so that we can have a long term forum that newbies can view on the overall state of the organization. I encourage Federal Baseball members to contribute to the discussion at Sickels as well. I felt like a rather lonely souldrummer as the only Nats poster in the least commented thread in the "Look at 2013" series so far. Even Pirates and Royals fans are more focused and aware of stronger farm systems than we are at the moment.
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quick comments
I think NatsTown does overvalue some of the players in the system, but I think some of that happens everywhere, not just a function of this market. Also, there’s so little to cling to that what does shine gets overpromoted (from fans, not the team, per se).
I, like you, found it a little strange that the article you link to was as high on some and less on others. Again, I think it’s a function of what’s in the system.
to look at things in a vacuum and try to extrapolate lineups 2 1/2 years down the road solely on the state of the minor league system is an exersize in futility in my opinion, which is one of the reasons I haven’t accpeted your challenge form the other night to do so. it’s just not realistic.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jul 20, 2010 5:38 PM EDT reply actions
I think the point of this is not to project 2013...
…it’s kind of trying to see how many holes there are and to go through an overall evaluation of the farm system. I was interested in seeing what a different set of eyes had to say on Burgess, Marrero, Meyers, Zimmermann, Norris, and Espinosa in one place. Sickels does some of this in his annual offseason ratings, but you’ve got to pay up for the book to get the full scouting on them. And I’m not that interested in everyone else to go whole hog on the book or a subscription to Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus yet.
I also agree with you that every fanbase probably focuses on its own prospects too much. Who did you agree with or disagree with in the evaluations? Very interested in your overall feedback on this as a fanpost. I think there need to be some heavily rec’d running discussions on things sometimes. It’s hard for people to follow every last “Trade Dunn! Don’t Trade Dunn!” thread sometimes. I think the Nationals Stadium thread is very helpful and should be surfaced as well.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I disagree....
The Nationals Stadium thread was a whining waste of time….IMO. If fans have problems with the stadium, make complaints to the Nats organization. I doubt Stan Kasten is reading FB to figure out what he needs to do to cater to a handful of whiners. Also, simply because a few folks whin about something, does not mean that the majority feel the same way….it is a fact that those with complaints (whether justified or not) are the ones to voice their opinions the most, and the loudest….those happy with a situation, will normally just remain silent. I am the owner of TWO season ticket packages…..there are things I would like to see improved, and when I begin to feel that passionate about it, I will write a letter to the organization with my suggestions. BTW….am I whining? Stop me please!!! lol
I think the difference in opinion here is that you're a STH and I am a grandstand frequent attender
I simply do not know the STH experience and I learn a lot from the thread. But for those who are STH, I can certainly understand where you’re coming from. Feels to me like there’s a different intended audience for that than satisfied STH. I think the better comments on that thread focus on 1) informing people about the stadium experience so that misconceptions are corrected and 2) discussing the responsiveness of the Nats ownership to addressing little things that are little annoying things but ways that the Nats are sometimes compared to Ted Leonsis negatively and Dan Snyder positively, perhaps unfairly.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 21, 2010 11:59 AM EDT up reply actions
I think this is an extremely important exercise
I don’t have the knowledge or ability to project the Nats going forward: looking at 2013 to find the players in the system that will be contributors can help us understand which players are important for the Nats’ future and which players are not. But, at the same time, someone needs to look at 2011 and 2012. How do we maximize wins or potential in 2011? Can we expect the Nats to contend next year or are they building toward 2012 or 2013?
Certainly, 2011 and 2012 are better years to project.
It will be a lot easier to do that once we are on the other side of the trade deadline, however. We need to see what happens with Dunn and what happens to some of the shorter term pitching inventory guys like Wang, Marquis, and Olsen to do that. I hope they are focusing their strategy for 2012 personally. I think it’s a lot to expect Maya, Zimmermann, or Detwiler to be a legitimate 2 and it would be very, very expensive to bring in additional bats to get the offense where it needs to be.
Likewise, our best prospects will finally be in the upper minors in AA and AAA. Marrero and Espinosa look they are heading for AAA next year and Burgess and Norris are likely headed for AA, the jump that will truly reveal their talents. Norris needs to either make big progress with the bat if he’s going to get shifted to 1B or the glove if he’s going to stick at catcher.
My take on this exercise was more to look at what an optimistic outside projection of our overall talent would be as a basis for further discussion. It’s one place where some of the commenters who haven’t focused on our minor leaguers can get an introduction to the system in one place.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 21, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
I rec'd this because I think it's good to think about the future
But I also think it’s premature to guess the roster in 2011, much less 2013. After the trade and the signing deadlines we’ll have a better idea of both the near and longer-term future. Even then free agencies, injuries and unexpected development (how many Met fans saw R.A. Dickey as the rotation stabilizer?).
As a way of seeing where holes may need to be filled, OK. But let’s not get too carried away with it.
by d_c_guy on Jul 21, 2010 12:26 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
It would be bettter to view this as a farm system inventory than anything else.
They are including spots in DC that would be blocking other prospects, though. Satchel is pretty clear about his goals and the limitations of the analysis in the original post. How much about the farm system and player ratings did you learn in the orginal article and this post?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 21, 2010 12:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Mostly I learned someone else's perspective, which has some value
I did rec the post after all :-) I just wanted to introduce a little bit of caution into over-reading the analysis.
I would be curious to hear from those who have a better sense of the farm system whether the 2013 Nats look like a good team?
I think that the team will need to fill in with some FAs to add some power, since the lineup from the original post did not strike much fear in anyone’s heart.
by The Herndon Kid on Jul 21, 2010 6:26 PM EDT reply actions
Brighter Days Ahead
If you take a look into the lower minors especially Hagerstown our young “prospect” hitters are really doing well this year:
Potomac
D. Norris will be fine just look at his OBP, Norris has a natural ability to judge the strike zone this early in his career and will only continue to get better. His BA, and SLG will go up eventually.
S. Lombardozzi, Mr. consistent has basically maintained his Hagerstown numbers from last year and will likely finish the year as a .300 hitter.
T. Moore although a little old for the level have
Hagerstown
E. Perez has been absolutely raking this second half went 4/4 tonight w/ 2 SB(38 SB’s on the season)
J.P. Ramirez, D. Hood, S. Leon are all also having solid seasons.
Vermont:
D. Freitas is on a 19 game hitting streak if he was drafted higher he’d be receiving a lot of hype right now but he’s mainly flying under the radar.
GCL
R. Oduber, A. Sanchez, R. Perez, etc…
Our hitters have really progressed this year IMO. This list does not include any of our top draft picks from this year and I’m likely missing some of our outstanding performers. With one more draft I think Rizzo can have this system atleast in the top 12 in baseball. The thing I worry about is our lack of high ceiling pitchers in the system, this makes the development of a Josh Smoker and B. Hansen very important getting A.J. Cole signed would be huge too.
He's also hitting way below .250 if I recall and having problems making contact.
A .278 OBP in the Carolina League is not making enough contact to warrant a promotion any time soon. He seems to be in the land of guys like Tim Pahuta. Might have enough pop to tantalize a little bit, but there isn’t too much there to suggest he’ll succeed at AA.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
There are two affiliates that are missing from your analysis.
Espinosa and Marrero, the guys that are closest to the majors have merely tread water this year. They’ve done enough to show that they probably belong in AAA, but not enough to show that they are likely to contribute next year in a midseason calluup and note enough for the Front Office to believe they have but so much value in a trade. Espinosa probably has value as a Top 100 prospect but not really Marrero. I can be hopeful but not optimistic about the guys below that. You have omitted Burgess at Potomac, who has done enough in RF to show that he will probably get a shot in the Eastern League. He’s missed a couple of their last few games and I don’t know what that means.
Our farm system is fair to middling. A lot of guys have been wrecked by the toughest transition, which is the one from the Carolina League to AA Hagerstown. Hopefully some of the names you mention, including pitchers like Meyers and AJ Morris will step up there game and make progress as well.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
T. Moore
Yeah his stats outside his power numbers don’t look great but he’s been hot lately so I wanted to show him some love. If he can start making more consistent contact he’s definitely a guy to look at going forward.
Espinoza been hot lately and Marrero’s been pretty consistent all year, I’d like his bat a whole lot more if he was playing LF though.
Yeah I did omit Burgess but every time I want to get excited about him he goes into one of his slumps he seems to be a real streaky hitter, I’m thinking Willingham without plate discipline.
Morris, Meyers, and Thompson have all done ok this year but none of them have very high cielings. Signing A.J. Cole would be huge for us, J. Smoker turning it around, B. Hansen continued success, and hopefully N. Karns pitches at some point this year. They signed B. King for an above slot deal last year and he had a good debut in the GCL last year but hasn’t done much of anything so far this year.
Part of the reason for my lack of optimism on the farm is that I have spent more time looking at other systems and top lists the last 3 weeks or so
You look at top lists of minor league prospects MLB wide and Norris is about the only one who shows up consistently. That doesn’t mean the rest of our guys are bad; it probably means that Bowden did a horrible job of stocking the upper minors well enough to provide hope for real help over the next 1 or 2 years besides Espinosa and Norris, who certainly have weaknesses of their own. Meyers hasn’t done much this year because unfortunately he’s been hurt with a foot injury after being hurt with something else at the start of the year. Morris had injury struggles as well but I’m with you on his being a low ceiling guy. Thompson’s an enigma if you just look at the stats. I’m interested to see what someone who has actually seen him at Harrisburg has to say about his stuff independent of his performance.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 11:04 AM EDT up reply actions
Well speaking from experience with the teams I'm supposed to like and observe
It obviously takes years to make a farm system and seconds to see it vanish with a lack of prudence— look at the Dodgers. They had a very good system a few years back, only to see some rash moves and that nasty divorce piss it away.
And I caught something near the end of the FanPost mentioning the Royals and Pirates— just my two non-Nats bias thoughts on that: One, they’ve obviously had sustained ineptitude, and it doesn’t help when you sign Pedro Alvarez— a good talent but not the best available— over some other alternatives, losing is going to be sustained. And even after years of drafting, who do they truly have to show for it: Andrew McCutchen? Maybe their pitching triumvate? And instead that also have the likes of Tabata roaming LF too (even though I think he was considered a top prospect with the Yankees), they couldn’t find a piece of their own after years of ineptitude?
That surely provides some solace and hope for a Nats fan, right? (Tell me I’m wrong if I am)
And with the Royals, it’s pretty hard not to laugh at a franchise that starts Yuni Betancourt, arguably one of the worst players in baseball. Even if they have Moutaukas, the re-energized Gordon, etc., should they have a better product on the field by now?
I think it will come to the Nats eventually, and considering the youth of this current incarnation of the franchise things should seemingly be okay.
jtb yl1
by Allen J. Kha on Jul 24, 2010 11:32 AM EDT up reply actions
I'm kind of going with current lists of Top Prospects more than anything else.
We “graduated” Storen, Strasburg, Desmond (Bernadina) this year and haven’t had much to replace them with. Atlanta is the system that scares me the most because I’ve seen lists with them that have multiple Top 50 prospects. I’m still learning more about other team’s farm systems. I think that the Pirates and Royals have certainly been mismanaged to this point, but I think they are improved and some of my praise for them is probably from stuff I read from their fans who are impressed by the showing of competence from their GM.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 12:07 PM EDT up reply actions
Well that takes years of consistent drafting
And that will eventually (and hopefully) come, on our side
jtb yl1
by Allen J. Kha on Jul 24, 2010 12:12 PM EDT up reply actions
This year's draft I look at Cole and Solis and kind of wait to see what happens at the low minors.
Below Hagerstown it’s kind of hard for me to keep track of all the guys with the shifting lineups and stuff. Short season Vermont is winning a lot of games, but that’s not what it’s about. Syracuse’s is in a playoff race with noone I care about besides maybe Jeff Mandel and certainly Justin Maxwell. We need to trade Maxwell to somewhere he can get a chance. Next year is the year we’ll get to learn more about Rizzo’s ability to draft. He won’t be drafting a consensus number one (knock on wood, those Orioles are bad) and he’ll have a little more flexibility in how he chooses to approach things. Assuming Maya comes through as expected, he gets a pass from me for the rest of this year unless Dunn walks for nothing.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 12:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I can tell you personally from watching him at USD (I'm from San Diego, well no duh haha)
That Solis is a stud. If he isn’t screwed up in development, he could turn out to be a very solid and welcome addition to the rotation.
I’ll do my best to learn y’alls minor league system, but from what I quickly see, I’d hope to say that things are better (fwiw).
jtb yl1
by Allen J. Kha on Jul 24, 2010 12:21 PM EDT up reply actions
top 100 or top 50
We had two or three in the top 100 heading into this year(Strasburg, Norris, Espinoza(was on some missed out on others)) I believe we’ll have a similar number of representatives when next years list come out.
Norris wont rank as highly as he did last year but I still think he has’d to be considered a top 100 prospect easily and if he can finish strong and bounce back next year he has top 25 potential for upcoming list.
B. Harper as long as we sign him is a gauranteed top 25 prospect on next years lists.
Thats two on the list gauranteed with Espinosa, A.J. Cole, E. Perez all having an outside shot at the top 100,
Storen was on some lists as well.
I keep forgetting Harper is on Top 100 lists once he signs. It’s a tweener time. We’ve graduated our top guys and our draft picks haven’t signed yet.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 12:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Surprised To Only See Destin Hood Mentioned ONCE.....
Highly touted out of Mobile, AL, with a swing that Bowden (I think) compared to Barry Bonds. Yes, I know….we shouldn’t take a Bowden remark seriously. He seems to be doing well, and actually passed on an opportunity to play football for Nick Saban at Alabama. Could be an eventual answer in the OF? Maybe in late 2011, or early 2012?
This is isn't the same as a Top Prospects list.
Hood’s a very raw outfielder in low A who has shown next to no power yet at all. He’s got the tools; he needs lots of refinement. I’m a believer in Hood too actually, just not by 2013. Very curious to see where they start him next year and how he finishes the rest of the year.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Let's hope Bowden didn't take that into account when making the pick.
“I don’t know about these high school guys. But he’s got some tools! And what a name!”
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Souldrummer, thanks for the post
I need to spend more time learning about the farm, since that is where the future is. This has been helpful.
by The Herndon Kid on Jul 25, 2010 8:45 AM EDT reply actions
I am not that up on the prospects
I just do not have enough time in my life for that, but I wish I did. I do think Zimmermann and Detwiler are destined to be top of the rotation starters in their late 20s. So in 2013 they will be nearly there. I also think JD Martin can be a MLB regular starter (as good as Marquis in his prime) if he gets the starts. Stammen I feel has the ability to be MLB average as well. Lastly Lannen will be back and solid by 2013. Add Strassssssburg and we are already 6 very good starters deep in 2013 if we avoid anymore major injuries (if).
Hitting and defense are not that good. I would be all for keeping hammer in LF for 5 more seasons or so. But, I do not see this season as anywhere near a fluke. Just the first of 5-7 darn good seasons.
Outside of Zimm I am not fully sold on anyone of the other hitters. I am sold on Jmax’s glove, but not his bat. I am far from sold on Bernadina. He misses way to many throws and has far to many really bad plays in right field. His bat is pretty good, but not amazing. If you assume harper will live up to the hype, then the Bernadina issue is solved by 2013, so that is answered.
Our biggest issues seem to be the interior infield and firstbase long term. Espinosa and Desmond will hopefully be the primary guys next season. I hope they take it and run or we will be hurting.
Norris, Flores? Probably Norris in 2013 behind the dish, but I also think he may be moved out from behind the plate next season. I hope he stays behind the plate and becomes a good MLB catcher. I am not seeing a star in Norris, but more of a Bengie Molina type catcher with a decent line drive bat. .
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Why not trade Ryan Zimmerman? You’d get uber-stud prospects to build a nucleus which could contending in a few years.
What is the biggest strength/weakness in the Nats’ farm system?
I fed a fish to a pelican and Frisco bay and he tried to eat my cell phone he ran away
Shhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh! That is DC Blasphemy my friend
Talking about trading Zimmy is right up there with eating on the Metro….Major Felony.
I might defect from the Braves after this year, Cox and Chipper are the last vestiges of my childhood team. And I live in DC. Willingham and Dunn should be gone already. Ted Leonsis should buy the Nats too.
I fed a fish to a pelican and Frisco bay and he tried to eat my cell phone he ran away
There is absolutely no reason to trade Willingham
he’s going to be good for awhile
Aim for the head baby Jesus
It's always about the price is right with deals.
Zimmerman and Strasburg are the only untradable names on our roster in my opinion. I just don’t think Willingham’s price would be maximized at the deadline. I don’t think he has as strong a reputation as a second half player and if people are unwilling to pay Rizzo’s for Dunn I highly doubt they’d pay Jason Bay prices for Willingham.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 27, 2010 12:22 PM EDT up reply actions
Paranoid?!?!
Every Braves convert becomes a potential avalanche. They go after the switcheroos like religion went after Galileo. Take away the fans outside of Atlanta and Turner Field might be even emptier than it would be otherwise if Jason Heyward vanished from the earth.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
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