A Look at Ross Detwiler.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 25, 2010 10:10 AM EDT
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PrintRoss Detwiler. The name invokes an array of emotions. Anger at Jim Bowden, for taking him over Rick Porcello or Jason Heyward. Naseua, remembering some of his starts last season. And...also hope, for the potential he has showed. We're in a unique situation this year, we have the luxury of allowing him to throw multiple rehab starts in the minors before slotting him into the rotation--something, due to a dearth of pitching, that would not have happened previously. So let's take a look at the enigma called Ross Detwiler.
The sixth overall pick in the 2007 draft will make his first start of the 2010 season on Sunday against the Brewers in Milwaukee. Last season Detwiler posted a 5.00 ERA along with a 3.86 FIP and a 4.83 xFIP in 75 innings. At first glance, it's an ugly line, however near the end of the season he reportedly reverted back to his college mechanics and the former Team USA pitcher posted a 1.86 ERA in four September starts and one October start, good for a 3.26 FIP (over 150 innings, which will be the standard I will use), a promising sign.
Alas, the pitcher underwent surgery for a torn hip labrum and as a result was not able to resume pitching until now. So how will he fare? Over 8 rehab starts and 35.2 innings he has posted a 2.27 ERA, which is good for a 2.35 FIP. Now eight starts is a small sample size, but over those eight starts he posted the best BB/9 and WHIP of his career at any minor league level. Looking at his numbers from his 2009 season, we see he has a high walk rate (4 BB/9) and a low strikeout rate (5.1 K/9). He seems to have improved upon that and is exhibiting greater control this year, posting a 2.0 BB/9 and a 8.3 K/9. In his 2008 and 2009 minor league stints, he did post similar strikeout numbers, but the walk numbers were high, resulting roughly in a 2.00 K/BB (give or take) compared to his 4.13 K/BB rate this year. It appears that Ross Detwiler has turned the corner and is ready to be a solid major league starter. I'm not willing to back him as a number 1 or number 2, but I'll defend him as a solid #3 for the Nationals going forward and a bet to post a low to mid 4 xFIP.
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I'm back guys. Sorry for the wait, things arose, as you know.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 12:59 AM EDT reply actions
I have always liked Ross Detwiler.....
I had very high hopes for him and Craig Stammen this year. I look foward to see him pitch on Sunday. Good luck Ross! Welcome Back!
Thanks Sully.
Stammen’s been unlucky this year.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 1:39 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you listened to our watched the last few Stammen starts, though?
He’s been pretty bad and seems like he’s next to get the axe. Last night was particularly awful. Detwiler is what he is and he’s got the rest of this year and next year to show something. Out of all the pitchers, he’s the guy I would move for position prospects if he can show enough to attract interest.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Whom, Detwiler? Or Stammen?
Well as you know, I’ve been MIA, out of the loop so I haven’t been able to see the games. Early this year his xFIP was in the low threes, now it’s low fours. So I suppose now I can’t blame it on bad luck.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 9:43 AM EDT up reply actions
Stammen's godawful and seems like he needs to finish the year contributing to Syracuse's stretch run.
I just don’t see it there for him. Either it’s between the ears or he’s lost a little bit of velocity that’s making him more hittable. Detwiler is the young pitcher that may have value that I’d be willing to move in the right deal. I don’t trust is health or mechanics. Recently posted on a White Sox board that he’d be a supplementary piece I’d consider throwing in a Dunn trade to get Dan Hudson, whose value since he’s gotten to the big leagues pushes him over being worth a Dunn rental.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 10:12 AM EDT up reply actions
I've come around to the idea that if the Nats can get a suitable first baseman (I'd love to get Kotchman to fill in the gap for the rest of the year), I'd be willing to move Dunn.
Hudson+Vizcnezo (sp?)+one other prospect is the current white sox offer. No need to throw in Detwiler.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 10:34 AM EDT up reply actions
Where are you getting that from?
I thought one of the reasons that there’s been more talk about Cecil Fielder from the White Sox side is that Hudson is tougher to get now that he’s in the rotation and has to pick up the slack for Peavy’s injury.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 10:40 AM EDT up reply actions
Chicago Sun Times and MLBTR
http://blogs.suntimes.com/whitesox/2010/07/sox_have_made_pitch_for_dunn_-.html
But they are a couple days old.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 10:58 AM EDT up reply actions
Thank you much.
I still don’t think Hudson’s really being offered and that’s there just to get other GMs to talk to him for awhile. But if Rizzo passes down a deal to trade Dunn that includes Hudson and he doesn’t resign with us lickety split quick, I will be a sad man.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 11:41 AM EDT up reply actions
I think that's Hudson or Viciedo by the way.
I believe they were saying that both are on the table and they’d be willing to move one. Again, I’m not sure how current that is with Hudson’s role in the rotation right now.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 24, 2010 11:42 AM EDT up reply actions
Detwiler had surgery on a torn hip labrum, not shoulder surgery
your post is unclear on that.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jul 24, 2010 12:44 PM EDT reply actions
Thanks Dave. Shows I know my anatomy, right?
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 24, 2010 6:15 PM EDT up reply actions
Shoulders and hips are similar joints, so they have the same parts
For a pitcher I would think the hip is easier to recover from.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Agreed on that...
…Detwiler’s still an enigma to me. Between the mechanics and the injuries, I’m a little less optimistic than the FO on him. He’s kind of the hinge on which a lot of the future rotation depends. If he’s really a 3 or even a 4, a lot of people will be in their projected roles comes 2012. But if he’s not, then we’re probably short a rotation arm. He’s kind of the Jesus Flores of the pitching staff….waiting, waiting, waiting and hoping he solves the health issues enough to be dependable.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 25, 2010 12:35 PM EDT up reply actions
I think it will take Detwiler nearly a season to fully recover his power and control
but then he will begin to pitch like the first round draft pick we drafted. I expect him to be a consistent 15-20 game winner in his late 20s and an Ace. And I think it is possible he could develop sooner, but do not expect it. My only question is if we will be patient long enough for him to get good, real good, or if we will be the Cleveland Indians and how they treated Cliff Lee. In other words, ditching him the second he got good simply because the patience had worn out on him.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
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