Edwin Jackson to the Nationals? A Look at the Brewing Three-Team Trade in DC
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 3:41 PM EDT
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PrintThe most recent news according to MLB Trade Rumors is that the Diamondbacks, the Nationals, and the White Sox are involved in trade talks. The players it revolves around are Edwin Jackson of the DBacks and Adam Dunn of our Washington Nationals.
Here is the report:
Rumblings continue to surface about a possible three-team deal involving the Nationals, White Sox and Diamondbacks that would send Edwin Jackson to Washington, Adam Dunn to Chicago and a bunch of young pitchers to Arizona.
What does this mean for the Nationals? It means that Mike Rizzo is doing something right. Let's take a look at Edwin Jackson's statistics for this year:
ERA/FIP/xFIP: 5.01/4.31/4.27.
His FIP and xFIP are nearly identical to last year's when he put up a 3.5 WAR season (FIP: 4.28, xFIP: 4.39). On the surface, he has an ugly ERA in 2010, but his xFIP supports the theory that it is due to the pitcher-unfriendly park in Arizona and the hot desert air that is causing it; additionally his HR/FB rate is up 1% from both his career rate and last year's numbers. In fact, most of his numbers have improved across the board. His xFIP is even better than last year (which is a number we can rely on heavily), and he is striking out more batters per nine (7.03 to 6.77) and he has been worth 1.7 WAR, already eclipsing all previous career totals besides 2009.
Now the Nationals may be losing a proven slugger, but they will be receiving someone who can help shore up the rotation. If Rizzo thinks he can either re-sign Dunn during the offseason or sign someone like Carlos Pena or Derrek Lee until Marrero is hopefully ready to take over at first, then he should pull the trigger. With a three-headed monster of Strasburg/Zimmermann/Jackson and 150-200 inning seasons from each, the Nationals will be in a better position to contend.
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At first glance, I don't like it
Honestly my first reaction is that if Rizzo goes ahead with this and Edwin Jackson is the only player the Nats get, then he needs to be canned.
We’re not winning with Dunn now, yes but are you really telling me that the Nats can’t get a better return for one of the few 40 HR guys around now than an enigmatic pitcher who’s flopped in three cities and soon to be four if he is traded out of Arizona?
Honestly Jackson reminds of Felipe Lopez: young, talented but already well traveled for a reason.
I do hope I am wrong though.
by DC_Determination on Jul 26, 2010 5:43 PM EDT reply actions
I concur that I think he can probably get more
I’d love to see Rizzo somehow swing Dunn for Hudson/Vicendo (sp) and then use Detwiler/etc to get Jackson. I would think however that we’d probably get more than Jackson, probably somebody from the ChiSox, such as Flowers.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
If we could get:
Flowers, Hudson, Viciedo, and Jackson for Dunn and Detwiler……. I would be beyond estatic(sp)
Screech's Godson
As would I, and I'd get off Rizzo's case and stop complaining about him.
However, without throwing in more, I’d say that’s unlikely. I could see Arizona wanting some young pitchers back. so maybe Dunn/Detwiler/2 mid level pitchers could net Hudson/Viciedo/organizational depth/Jackson. That would be a very good move by Rizzo. If he could somehow get Flowers in the deal that would be unbelievable.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 7:34 PM EDT up reply actions
First of all, I don't believe it.
Secondly, I don’t see a need. Just how many back-end starters do the Nats need? Lannan/Marquis/Olsen/Stammen/Atilano/Chico/Martin/Mock/Wang/Detwiler…(who am I forgetting?)…. Unless they plan on going with a 13-man rotation next year, I don’t follow the logic behind this.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
How many of those do you trust though?
The only two we can count on for sure are Strasburg and Zimmermann. Wouldn’t it be nice to plug in a guaranteed 3 WAR player behind them? We can’t trust the rest of those guys, don’t get me wrong I love Lannan but he appears to have lost his smoke and mirrors. Nobody there is a sure thing. Chico? Even when he was healthy in 2007 he was worth NEGATIVE 0.2 WAR. Marquis/Olsen/Wang—how will they return from injury? What’s happened to Stammen? Livan probably won’t be back. And Atiliano and Martin…who are they? Are they AAAA players or legitimate starters. We can’t afford to risk it.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 7:16 PM EDT up reply actions
Point is, I would trust Edwin Jackson just about as much as I would any of these other guys.
He’s not a good, consistent pitcher; I sincerely doubt the 3 WAR you are suggesting he’d put up. I am completely dumbfounded to hear you claim that it’s a guarantee.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
Well he put up 3.5 WAR last year and this year he's on pace to approach 3.0 WAR again.
I don’t think you can trust the others like you can trust him. He’s a high strikeout guy who can pitch 200 innings with a good xFIP. We saw him in Detroit, we all know what happens to pitchers in the desert. Even if his ERA is around 4.00 in DC (which I think it would be better, judging by his xFIP and FIP), that’s a better guarantee than what we could get out of Chico, Livan, etc. None of those guys have a track record at all (excluding Lannan whose smoke and mirrors appear to have dissipated), leaving aside comparisons.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Well he put up 3.5 WAR last year and this year he's on pace to approach 3.0 WAR again.
I don’t think you can trust the others like you can trust him. He’s a high strikeout guy who can pitch 200 innings with a good xFIP. We saw him in Detroit, we all know what happens to pitchers in the desert. Even if his ERA is around 4.00 in DC (which I think it would be better, judging by his xFIP and FIP), that’s a better guarantee than what we could get out of Chico, Livan, etc. None of those guys have a track record at all (excluding Lannan whose smoke and mirrors appear to have dissipated), leaving aside comparisons.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 10:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Wait. "High strikeout guy"?
Jackson has never averaged over 7.5 K/9, with the exception of his 4-game rookie season (7.8). 7 K/9 is not “high strikeout”. The 6.3 he’s averaged over the last three years certainly isn’t. The 1.4 WHIP he’s amassed in that time can be considered pretty high though.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
Thank you for catching my slip-up there.
I should clarify, 7 K/9 is a huge upgrade to our staff, most of which relies upon groundouts to a relatively weak defense.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Baseball Reference says he had a 4.2 WAR last year,
but only a .9 this year.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
Fangraphs has 09 at 3.5 and 10 at 1.7
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1841&position=P
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:58 AM EDT up reply actions
As you go along, you'll find I tend to favor BBR highly over FanGraphs.
It’s probably just personal. But that’s a pretty big discrepancy, isn’t it?
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
Yeah, I know that they have differences in WAR but I've NEVER seen one that big.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions
There is something missing from this Fanpost...
…and that is money. Jackson’s contract is why a lot of people don’t want him here. He ain’t cheap and the D’Backs seem like there almost going fire sale with selling Haren and other parts.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Money shouldn't be an issue with this team, alas it is
They’re consistently near the top in revenue.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 7:18 PM EDT up reply actions
Thats profit
there revenue sucks right now, though its better since Strasburg came up
Aim for the head baby Jesus
They can afford a lot better pitchers than Jackson.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
But will the FO spend in the offseason? We don't know if they can compete with the big boys for them.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 26, 2010 10:42 PM EDT up reply actions
Personally hoping this rumor dies
I’ve obviously stated that I see the value in trading Dunn many times. However, the assumption is that Detwiler would have to be included to make this deal happen. I happen to be of the belief that dealing Detwiler would come back to haunt the Nats, but that’s not really the only point there is here.
My problem with dealing for Jackson is that I view he and Detwiler as guys who are likrly to produce at a pretty similar level. Yes… Jackson has the edge in big league experience, and we’ve seen what he can do over the course of his career.
His 4.65 career FIP is a little below league average. His 4.28 FIP and 4.31 FIP this year are slightly better than the league average…. which should probably be happening because (as he’ll turn 27 in September) he’s in his prime years, and should be as good as he’s ever going to be right now. The career 6.45 K/9 is pretty much right at league average and (again) he’s been up just a little more the past couple of seasons.
A healthy Detwiler can provide about this production…. at a fraction of the cost and with five extra years of club control. Jackson is entering his final year of arbitration, and figures to get a bit of a raise over his current $4.6 million salary. Detwiler will make a little over the league minimum for the next few seasons, and should remain under club control through the 2015 season.
As for finances… Yes, the Nats should have the financial wherewithal to field a competitive payroll. Part of fielding that competitive payroll, though, is to have several players who are bargains. It frees up payroll to go after needs, be they through trades during the season or free agents in the offseason.
Even looking at some of the teams that consistently outspend their competition, you’re going to find some of these bargains…. guys like Phil Hughes and Brett Gardner…. guys like Jon Lester, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz and Daniel Bard. It’s a heck of a lot easier to get what you need to contend with an $80-$100 million payroll when you’re not wasting $7 million or so on a guy who is going to give you about the same production that you could have gotten from a similar player who would be making less than $1 million.
That said, it all depends on what exactly the Nats would have to give up. If it’s Detwiler, I’d probably hang up the phone (maybe I’m too high on him?). If it’s Atilano and one or two of the other AAAA guys the Nats have been running out there, I’d probably consider it.
The key point, however, is that the 2012 plan keeps being talked about around here. I happen to believe in it. The right move here should make the Nats more competitive next season and hopefully ready to be a legitimate contender two years down the road.
Edwin Jackson will probably be making more than a guy the Nats overpaid for in Marquis by 2012…. and it will be a deal he signs as a free agent (be it with the Nats or someone else).
by bluelineswinger on Jul 27, 2010 1:24 AM EDT up reply actions
Update
I live in Phoenix, and on the way home from work the local radio station, which also happens to be the Dbacks flagship, said the White Sox are out of this potential deal.
The Dbacks and Nationals are still in conversation regarding a Jackson for prospects trade, but, Arizona feels they can get market value from Washington without a third team being involved.
According to the report, it was Washington’s idea to add the third team because they want Chicago to replace the prospects they would lose to AZ in the deal
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:16 AM EDT reply actions
This is simply hearsay on my part, however.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Based on the profile of the pitchers they got in the extremely disappointing Haren deal
Detwiler would almost certainly be their primary target. Cheap, big league ready, left-handed. He throws harder than Saunders and Corbin and tops off in the same range that Tyler Skaggs figures to end up at. All three are left-handed. Skaggs is the only one that I’d put in Detwiler’s class, and I happen to think Detwiler is a touch better. If the Nats were to move Detwiler for Edwin Jackson, an argument could be made that he was better than any single pitcher they received for a perennial Cy Young candidate (having a bit of a down year, but far better than Jackson) in Haren.
While I’ve stated above that I don’t particularly like Jackson (I feel he’s maybe slightly above league average), if the Diamondbacks were to want to acquire right-handers to go with their three new lefties, I’d be fine with the Nats giving up any (handful) of the AAAA pitchers for him, such as Atilano, Stammen, Martis, Meyers (who I think can climb a bit higher than the rest), Martin, etc.
In an ordinary situation, I wouldn’t expect that to be amenable to the Diamondbacks, but after seeing what they got in return for Dan Haren, I’d be interested to see how far below value they would go just to shed payroll. A couple of the AAAA guys could almost instantly slot into their rotation….. not necessarily well, mind you, but they could instantly slot into their rotation.
The frustrating thing about the Haren deal is that it could well set the market lower across the board as the deadline approaches. You always expect that there’s a chance that someone holding a big trade chip will cave at the last minute, and that had to be what happened here. Haren’s expensive, but the remainder of his deal (which could be three more years if the Angels pick up the option, which they will) figures to stay below market value. They dealt a great player with a great contract situation for a back-end starter (Saunders), a guy who figures to develop (at his peak) into pretty much the same back-end starter that Saunders is (Corbin), a guy with middle of the rotation stuff who has a ways to go (Skaggs), and a mid-level reliever (Rodriguez).
What’s frustrating is that this could well lower the price on the market all around baseball.
by bluelineswinger on Jul 27, 2010 1:41 AM EDT reply actions
You appear to be very high on Detwiler
I, however, am not as high on him. I would assume talks would begin with Detwiler, and if we could get away with giving up other AAAA players as you mentioned, I’d rather do that. The thing is, Detwiler is an injury risk and he still throws across his body. Jackson has a better track record. But of course, as you mentioned, which I failed to bring up, he’s under control for five years as opposed to the one of Jackson’s. Which is where I think you have me stuck.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
Re: injuries
http://www.masnsports.com/debbi_taylor/2010/07/detwiler-adjusts-mechanics-to-relieve-hip.html
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm with you on nervous about Detwiler.
Command remains a problem with him and now it seems he’s changing his mechanics for the fourth set of mecahanics that we’ve drafted him (across the body, try to fix across the body, than back to across the body, now across the body with easier hips). At some point, injury and mechanical issues make you skeptical. If someone values him as a B- prospect, I wouldn’t have a problem dealing him at that grade as part of a package that will address some of our other weaknesses around the diamond.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 27, 2010 12:47 PM EDT up reply actions
Command has always been a problem with him, correct (excluding this year's stint in the minors)
The only thing I see that he has an advantage over Jackson is in his cost/team control.
Strasburgeddon approaches, the savior is almost here.
by StrasburgSavior on Jul 27, 2010 12:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Don't settle..
I think guys like Jackson are a dime a dozen in this league. Every time I see him pitch he’s getting lit up like a Christmas tree. Go get a REAL #2 in free agency and quit tinkering around with a bunch of ‘above average’ guys who look the part, but don’t really win games. Face it, until we actually SEE J. Zimmerman chalk up some curly Ws, he’s a #3 AT BEST.
I know where the puck is going before you do.
Enjoy your Wild Man, Kenny Williams.
And we’ll keep our Adam Dunn. Thanks for nothing and fostering chaos and confusion in Natstown. And, oh yeah, GO TWINS!!!!
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
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