Should The Washington Nationals Trade Cristian Guzman? Adam Dunn? Matt Capps?
by Patrick Reddington on Jul 5, 2010 7:42 PM EDT
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PrintAs the Washington Nationals approach the July 31st Non-Waiver Trade Deadling, Nats' GM Mike Rizzo tells FOXSports.com reporter Ken Rosenthal, as recounted in Mr. Rosenthal's most recent "Full Count" video report, (which was filmed at Nationals Park this weekend), that other teams have been inquiring about "five or six" Nationals with the rumored names often mentioned including Adam Dunn, who is a free agent after this season, Josh Willingham and Matt Capps, who are both under control for another year, and infielders Cristian Guzman, who's in the second year of a 2-yr/$16M dollar deal, and Adam Kennedy, who signed for 1-year/$1.25M with a club option for 2011.
Adam Dunn projects as a Type-A free agent according to a post by MLBTraderumors.com's Tim Dierkes entitled, "Elias Ranking Updates", which also has Guzman, a 32-year-old free agent-to-be, failing to qualify for A or B status, which means he'd fail to provide any draft picks in return, making a trade at some time before he walks a distinct possibility...since the Nationals aren't going to re-sign Guzman, right? Adam Kennedy is not going to get A or B status either, but recent transactions involving the 34-year-old infielder, who's .240/.316/.329 in spots starts and random appearances, would lead one to believe he's not going to bring much back in return, and he can be bought out for $500,000 this winter if the Nationals decide not to bring him back.
Matt Capps, who was named to the 2010 All-Star roster yesterday, and is tied for 2nd in baseball with 22 saves on the NL East's last-place team, might not ever be a more attractive to other teams than he is right now. As Mr. Rosenthal reports in the video, " A number of teams are desperate for relievers and Capps is 22 for 26 in save opportunities,":
Ken Rosenthal: "[Capps has] recovered from his early June slump. The Nats control Capps for next year but they might want to trade him for peak value and then turn over the late innings to Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen."
• Scout's Take: (ed. note - "In which my not-particularly-talkative brother, Scout, a life-long Atlanta Braves' fan offers his unsolicited opinion on matters dealing with the Nats."):
Scout: "Trade Capps for a young first baseman (+prospects) and trade Adam Dunn for his maximum value."
Trade Capps? Trade Dunn? One thing you have to do is trade Cristian Guzman...What will the Washington Nationals look like on August 1st if all this happens? Tyler Clippard closing with Drew Storen locking down the eighth. Ian Desmond, errors and all at short, with Adam Kennedy, if he's not dealt, and Alberto Gonzalez splitting time in the infield. Can the Nats find a young MLB-ready first baseman in a deal that would allow them to trade Adam Dunn in spite of the fact that many Nats' fans don't seem too excited about dealing Washington's big middle-of-the-order bat and would instead like to see him signed to an extension....You're Mike Rizzo, what do you do? In Rizzo We Trust...
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Trade Dunn for Infante!
Infante’s an all-star and a winnah!
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Just as I guessed yesterday...
….Manuel is saying he was told to add a utility man by MLB, thus Infante. FYI: Gallardo is hurt, might need a pitcher like…Pelfrey?
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jul 5, 2010 8:27 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Hush your mouth! And don't listen to Scout who thinks only of Atlanta's best interest.
I say no trades that bring ONLY prospects. i want to see upgrades NOW.
1. Crocodile-Dunn-D RULEZ! KEEP HIM!
No thanks to Infante despite Manuel’s redonkulous pick for the All Star Game.
2. Trade Capps…ONLY…for a ready-for-prime-time-NOW Starting pitcher.
3. Trade Guzman any way you can. Heck, we’ll throw in the bag of fresh new balls, some brand new gloves and some of those annoying vuvuzuelas while were at it.
"This is a freakin' do-good league, it's not a try-good league...." Josh Bard 5-31-09
My response...
1) Do whatever you’re going to do, but don’t let this end up like Soriano where he walks for picks. Picks were ok back in 2007 when we were willing to wait for the plan. Now, when we’re trying to contend by 2012, not so much. I lean towards trading Dunn in part because we have no signs that a hometown discount deal will be in place before the deadline. I think Dunn’s going to have more suitors and a lot of leverage after the season now that he’s produced consistently in a tougher ballpark and shown competence at 1B. Signing Dunn means they need to go all in the free agent market to find more pitching to try to contend sooner. I want a longer term view a la the Caps and Wizards.
2) You’re not going to get that for Capps. I don’t think his value will get any higher, but I also don’t know how supply and demand will work in the reliever market. I trust Clippard and Storen enough to move him if you get the right price.
3) Lerner’s aren’t going into throw in the 2-3Mil in cash to trade him for even a halfway decent prospect for Guzman. I’d love to see a sucker ask for him, and I hope that the injuries to Pedroia and Utley make him move tradable but I don’t expect it.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
You do realise that not re-signing Soriano was probably the best decision this team has done? (well…not the best…but you know…not a bad decision). Although it makes it much harder to judge really as we’ll never know what other teams were offering for a trade.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
Not trading Soriano was the debatable one.
When you’re light years away from contention, I agree that letting him walk for picks and playing the draft lottery makes sense. But when you need to contend in the middle of the window where you have Strasburg, Zimmerman, and Harper, it’s kind of hard to wait 4 years for those picks to develop.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I think it also depends on Dunns’ asking price. I mean we got Jordan Zimmerman from the Soriano walk…so it’s possible that these things work out. But I agree that if we want to get better next year – maybe a trade would make more sense.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
What would make me nervous is letting the trade deadline pass without resolution.
Work out the deal over the all-star break and end the speculation for both sides. Or trade him because you can’t work out the deal. But letting it fester after the all-star break will be too much drama for the offseason.
Jordan Zimmermann was a rather lucky break. He’s one of the best picks in history at that spot in the draft potentially.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Seems SD and I alternate on making this point
Yeah…. not being able to deal Soriano worked out extremely well for the Nats. The chances of a similar situation occurring if they keep Dunn and are unable to re-sign him are astronomically bad, though. Sometimes you win the lottery, and it seems that’s what happened in the case of Jordan Zimmermann. Mind you, nobody talks about the fact that Josh Smoker hasn’t developed as they’d hoped. Smoker was taken with the higher of their two compensation picks for losing Soriano… Zimmermann was taken with the Cubs’ actual second round pick slot.
Given that it seems like both sides want to get a deal done, I’ll say that there’s a 60/40 chance that the Nats would be able to re-sign Dunn in the offseason if they hold onto him (see…. this is me being sunny. Honestly, I’d put the chances lower, but let’s keep that positive attitude working!). If they don’t, the front office will likely at least offer him arbitration and take the risk on the draft picks. Again, it’s a huge risk, and pointing to how lucky they got the last time around doesn’t mean it should be expected to happen again.
When I first brought up that I thought they should trade Dunn, all I kept hearing is that they shouldn’t trade him for prospects…. they should trade him for a proven commodity. What those of you who keep saying that they’ll at least get the draft picks if they hold onto him and don’t re-sign him don’t seem to agree with me on is this:
A prospect with 2-4 years of minor league (read: professional) experience is a proven commodity.
In some cases, they’re buried on the depth chart because the system they’re in has a surplus at their position (just taking a random top prospect…. not someone I think the Nats should target. Let’s pick top Yankees’ Catching prospect Jesus Montero. In others, they’re on the cusp of breaking into the majors, but have yet to receive the promotion. Of course, in many more, they’re players who are never going to make it.
The point of fact, though, is that we’ve seen what these players can do on a professional level. Not at the highest professional level in most cases, mind you, but the projectabililty of how they’ll perform at the MLB level will be far more accurate.
You know what’s unproven? Draft picks.
by bluelineswinger on Jul 6, 2010 4:09 AM EDT up reply actions 1 recs
tough choices - but I think maybe Dunn needs to be traded
It really all depends on what we could get back in return. I have ZERO problem moving Guzman…but I dont think we’ll get much back regardless. Dunn on the other hand is an interesting proposition… I think we could get far more for Adam and if it doesnt work out we could benefit from the draft picks.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
Deal deal deal
This team is set up to be a force in a couple years. Dunn is especially valuable if he can put up non-awful numbers at first. Matt Capps could bring in a decent prospect or two as well. Do it now, and watch the rest of the division get older while the Nats come up shining.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
watch the rest of the division get older while the Nats come up shining.
Braves are going to be young for awhile yet. Marlins will have to get young by necessity. But I do like the thought about getting younger to take advantage of cracks in the Phillies’ armor and the Mets’ likely having to sell some of their farm system to win now if they choose to go after someone who could make an impact.
Here’s a bigger question: would you trade Capps to the Mets for a Mets prospect of significance? We clearly saw over the weekend that the Mets are having some issues in their bullpen.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
With Omar at the helm I think we could fleece the Mets
Have no probs giving up Capps for a young decent Met.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
The next thing is to find who that young decent Met would be.
They aren’t going to move Mejia for Capps. Curious to see some of what else is in their system. Too bad, Daniel Murphy’s out for the year. Uh, our Chiefs killed his MCL on a kind of dirty take out slide at 2B and put him out for the year. Dude is snakebit.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
The Braves are going to be an obstacle for awhile
but I just can’t see the Marlins being competitive while they have Ebeneezer Scrooge for an owner. I would completely sell Matt Capps to the Mets as it would rob them of some of their future while adding to the Nats. Plus, Omar Minaya.
babip giveth... and babip taketh away
Joey Votto, 2HR tonight.
against the Mets. An enemy of the Mets is a friend of mine.
Vote Votto.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I say sign Dunn
Sign Dunn to an extension, trade Guzman and Capps. Why sign Dunn? Joe Buck and Kevin Millar brought up a great point on Fox Saturday baseball. The Nats are in a rebuilding mode, but have a tremendous 3-4-5 heart of the order. When the Nats complete rebuilding mode, the team is going to need a guy like Dunn in the middle of the lineup to swat dingers and drive in runners, so why trade him?
The Zimm, the Donkey and the Hammer shouldn’t be broken up. Dunn and Willingham need contract extensions now, Guzman and Capps can be traded for the 2BoTF or additional rotation help. Drew Storen is going to be a pimp closing out ball games, that’s a fact.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2010 10:03 PM EDT reply actions
Agree.
I don’t think we should trade Dunn… unless a team is offering something we can’t resist… plus he said he wants to stay here!!! We have one of the best 3-4-5 guys but our lineup is pretty lopsided. The three big guys don’t get enough opportunities with men on base. If we lose Dunn we lose a lot of the little offense we have. He’s the one guy that can get a big hit anytime of the game. He’s a 40-HR a year guy! I honestly think losing him would devastate this offense. KEEP DONKEY. PLEASE. Also agree that Storen is a stud. He’s definitely stabilizing the bullpen.. maybe they should rest Clip a little more… before his arm falls off
All three of the Nats 3-4-5 hitters have a .900+ OBPS, is there any other lineup in the League that can match that?
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 7, 2010 4:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Man, Lannan got hit again.
7IP, 9H, 4R, 4ER, 1BB, 4K, 1HR
Maybe the process is better than the results but that’s not the kind of line you want to see from someone at AA working with their supposed pitching coach guru.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
The Magic Man
has finally run out of Magic. For the past two seasons (not counting 2010) it was a mystery how Lannan was acheiving sub 4.00 ERAs. Mystery solved: Smoke and Mirrors.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2010 10:06 PM EDT up reply actions
His stuff though has gotten worse.
There’s a mechanical and physical dimension to this as well.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I agree, but I’m not worried. Lannan getting better doesn’t really make or break the Nationals. I’d like to see him do well for the sake of him doing well, but I’m not going to get heartbroken if he doesn’t do well. It was fun while it lasted.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2010 10:12 PM EDT up reply actions
Ultimately, the 4/5 guys aren’t going to make or break the franchise. You want to see Lannan reap the fruits of success for the franchise, but he’s coming back to a much more competitive environment for DC. The Wang/Marquis/Olsen/Stammen/Atilano/Martin/Lannan backend of the rotation is nice, but I see 1 or 2 guys coming out of there to be a credible back end. If we’re going to make noise, it’ll be with Zimmermann returning to health and Detwiler solving the mechanical and physical issues that have plagued him thus far.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
it’ll be with Zimmermann returning to health
I agree with your entire comment, but like this part the best. Zimmermann has the chance to be quite superb should he recover fully (which looks like he’s almost ahead of the pace for). The thought of Strasburg and Zimmermann in the same rotation makes me happy.
by Andrew Davidson on Jul 5, 2010 10:21 PM EDT up reply actions
Deadline Moves
1. I don’t see this as an either or situation. Dunn reportedly wants to stay here and they have probably been discussing a contract with his agent all season. I would not be suprised if something is announced during the all-star break. If he is traded it has to be for starting pitching, a catcher, or second baseman. The idea of Napoli is interesting, but he hasn’t played an entire season yet, and is reportedly not great defensively. I don’t know if the team can get back for Dunn anything that would be as valuable as a sandwhich pick and a second first rounder. Amateur players are making it to the majors faster than ever and a first round college player might help us as quick if not quicker than a low A pitcher from another team. The Reds got Micha Owings and a middle relief prospect for Dunn. I bet they wish they had the picks. I think in the end Dunn stays, but no one option is the only way to success.
2. I think Capps should be traded. His value will never be higher. He is under contract next year, but with Storen and Clippard and guys like Wilkie and Stammen in the minors I see no reason to hold onto a player that is producing at the most volitale position on the field. Capps could probably net something good in return from a team desprate for relief help. The Twins had a catcher up earlier in the year when Mauer was hurt that looked pretty good and is suppossed to be a top prospect. The Rangers just got Molina and might be willing to give up Teagarden or Saltalamacchia to help insure a division win.
3. If someone is willing to give up something for Guzman then trade him. I think the Lerners would be willing to pay some of his salary if it meant they could get better prospects. If they don’t trade him they still pay his salary and end up with nothing to show for it. Besides I have seen no proof that they are as cheap as some people think. Not paying out contracts to mediocre free agents is not when owners are cheap. Owners are cheap when they have a young star and refuse to pay him. There one shot at it has been Zim and they have passed so far. The Lerners simply haven’t gotten enough of a chance to spend money to be conisdered anything.
Positive contribution to the discussion.
On 1) Outside of 3B and LF, there aren’t too many places on the diamond where a stud prospect wouldn’t improve our current options. I’m a believer in the Pudge to Norris bridge, so I’m not totally worried about catcher if they can get a quality backup as a free agent catcher next year for Pudge. They tried to add depth for that with Chris Coste as a backup if Nieves cratered and he got hurt too. But it depends on what they get back.
2) I agree with you that Capps should be traded. Strong first half plus all-star selection feeels like his high water mark. It’s worth looking at some recent deadline deals to see what a 2nd tier closer has brought back in recent deadline deals. I don’t think we’re going to get the Twins high end catcher back. I think it would be a B- kind of prospect at best for Capps.
3) We only got back Vincent Garate, a LOOGY with limited upside for Ronnie Belliard last year who was a lot cheaper than Guzman for any team that wanted him. I don’t think there’s that much of a market for Guzman, but I hope that I’m wrong.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
I believe Guz is better than what Ronnie was last year.
Plus, less than half of Guz’s salary will be paid by the team we trade him to. We also got another relief pitcher in exchange for Belliard, not just Garate.
Screech's Godson
I need to take the 5 minutes to look this stuff up sometimes...
…thanks grizzy.
We also got relief pitcher Luis Garcia who has barely thrown for us. Got clobbered in 6 games at Potomac. Has appeared in 8 games for us in Hagerstown. Doesn’t look like more than organizational depth. Garate the LOOGY was the center of that deal, and it will be interesting to see who out of the minors’ bullpens (Severino the LOOGY, Garate the LOOGY, Wilkie, Balester, Martin down in AA) can emerge as a factor for DC next year. Thankfully Rizzo won’t fall for the “Wow they pitched 8 great innings in a September callup” trick when determining who he is going to trust for the pen.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Catching isnt a bad idea
Norris aside – who we’ve got huge tickets on – I think good catching and a athletic CF wouldnt be a bad move for Dunn. It’s really if a deal is there to be had.
I think anything in relation to a Guz trade is probably worth it at this point – he’s going, we’re not going to sign him, so we should get anything we can at this point.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
Njger Morgan
I agree that we should trade Capps. Storen will be our closer in a few seasons anyway and it’s not like were World Series bound anytime soon. But I think another smart move would be to not let Nyger Morgan see the field ever again because he is a worthless (and very stupid) fielder and ever worse lead off hitter. Bernadina to center and lead off and Mike Morse to right.
I don't think Morse is an every day player, but I agree with you on Nyjer Morgan...
He’s not doing any of the things a leadoff hitter should do…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jul 6, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions
The wave of Morse support definitely stopped once he stopped hitting.
Like I said before, Nyjer needs a crash course in the strategy of baseball.
Morse can be effective when limited to batting against lefties
like Riggs was doing earlier. but he’s not good in the field and if he was going to be a regular in the majors, he would have been there before his 28th birthday. he’s a platoon guy at best. not that that’s a bad thing.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jul 6, 2010 4:51 PM EDT up reply actions
Scrappy
What’s nice about Nyjer this season is that he his proving to be scrappy enough to endure all the fan hate this season and is starting to come out of his slump….our fans sure know how to flip flop on a player …once he gets back in a lead off groove and develops more situational experience in CF he will be very valuable either as the everyday player he is or as a trade prospect ……
by NewJerseyAveSE on Jul 6, 2010 1:56 PM EDT up reply actions
I didn't really think that the fans turned on him nearly fast enough
Despite his atrocious play in the field and his awful baserunning blunders and his pathetic hitting performances, the fans still cheered his name far more than they cheered for guys like Willingham.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
cmon grizz
when Rob and I (and others) defended Dunn during his defensive horror show at least there was something to defend… what is redeeming Morgan in your eyes?
Career .290 hitter, Plus defense, Great speed. At his best he is a very good leadoff man.
I’m tired of everybody blaming Nyjer for everything wrong with this team.
Screech's Godson
Guzman, Kennedy, Capps, Dunn, Morgan & more
I used to be squarely in the corner of Guzman because he always ends up around .300, but more and more of those are slap singles. His extra-base numbers are non-existant and his age and fielding are becoming liabilities. I wouldn’t mind seeing him go for somebody with a better glove. He would make a great DH or regular pinch-hitter.
I really don’t care what we do with Kennedy. He has had a good career, but he is a non-factor these days…but what really can we get for him?
With Capps, I think it all depends on what we get back. My fear is that if we get rid of him prematurely we might repeat a Hanrahan fiasco! Our bullpen is loaded though so we may be able to get A LOT from the desperate Mets and still have Storen, Burnett, and Clippard in late innings.
I definitely don’t want to see Dunn go. His power numbers have been what the Nats paid for and he has hit for a better average in D.C. than in Cincy. Plus, I just like the big guy.
I also definitely do not want to see Morgan go. True, he has not been the spark he was last year, but his speed and explosiveness make him a keeper. Plus, he may have the best attitude/personality in all of baseball.
And finally, A LOT depends on some people getting healthy. Jordan Zimmerman is a potential #2 man behind Strasburg, Wang was one the top AL pitchers before his breakdown, Marquis’ injury has really really hurt, Detwiler seems like he good be pretty solid Olson is occasionally brilliant, and Lannan is a good dependable guy (not the ace people wanted to force him to be). And what happened to Jesus Flores is really sad. That guy was a big time player! I fear he may be lost forever. But if 3 or 4 of these 6 is salvable then that would be a big help. Lets not forget that the Nats have been more done in by injuries than any other team the last two years. Need some better luck around Nats park!
Mets fans might disagree with you on the injury front.
Lost 43.734Million bucks due to injury and 34.9% of their payroll. We lost 11.760M and19.5% of our team payroll.
Good support for your points, though.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
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