The Adam Dunn Question
by David Huzzard on Jul 8, 2010 10:31 AM EDT
Email
PrintThere is a pleasure derived from watching Adam Dunn swing a bat. He is a big lumbering mountain of humanity. He is someone that has stepped out of the pages of folk tales, a mythic hero like Paul Bunyan or Hercules. He is strong, fierce, determined to give it his all in every plate appearance. There is no beauty or poetry in the way Adam Dunn plays the game of baseball just like there is no beauty in watching a lumberjack fell a tree. It is pure force and power. His mighty swings can crush the soul of the pitcher and his epic strikeouts leave his own fans wondering what might have been. It is just a known that if his bat made contact that ball wouldn’t be coming back.
The question now surrounding Adam Dunn and the Washington Nationals is what to do. Adam Dunn is a force at the plate and in the clubhouse. He is a big goofy likeable guy to the players on his team, and he is a feared leviathan to opposing pitchers. The problem is one that baseball teams face often, and whatever the answer I for one hope it involves Mike Rizzo being smarter than me.
Last night watching Adam Dunn crush homer after home and break the heart of San Diego pitching brought a tear to my eye. I like watching Adam Dunn play the game of baseball. He has his issues. He isn’t very sharp when it comes to situational hitting. He approaches every situation with one goal: smash the baseball into the farthest reaches of the heavens. His goal seems to be to knock Artemis from the sky no matter what the game situation is. This leads to strikeouts with a runner on third and less than two outs where a long fly ball or just a ball in play would score a run. Adam Dunn isn’t that type of player though. His approach is to kill baseballs.
Adam Dunn isn’t a complete hitter, but he is a consistent hitter. He has had six straight seasons with forty are near forty homers (he fell short of the mark last season with 38 homers). This season he ranks 7th among first baseman with a .939 OPS ahead of such names as Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. The only two NL first baseman he is behind are Joey Votto and Albert Pujols. Adam Dunn for his career has put up a slash line of .251/.382/.523. Those are pretty decent numbers for an offensive player. People can bring up defense, but first base is an offensive position and on the scale of defensive importance it might rank dead last.
It simply cannot be argued that Adam Dunn is not a productive major leaguer. The issue is what can Adam Dunn be signed for, and what can he be traded for. I would bet that if you asked a GM to tell you what kind of deadline partners they dream of the answer would be a team in the White Sox position. After an altercation between GM Kenny Williams and manager Ozzie Gullien it was presumed that Williams might be on the hot seat. Then the White Sox got hot and found themselves right back in a division race. The problem is the Twins might add Cliff Lee, and the Tigers have the AL frontrunner for MVP in Miguel Cabrera. The fact is the White Sox are catching neither team. However the White Sox think they can catch both teams. All they need is a little power, and they are looking for Adam Dunn to provide it.
The information we know so far is that the Nationals have supposedly asked for either Gordon Beckham or Carlos Quentin. I think it is more likely that the source mistook his conjunctions and the Nationals asked for Quentin and Beckham. Beckham after having an excellent rookie season is in what is either a sophomore slump or gigantic downturn from which he will never return. Carlos Quentin is a decent right fielder that is just starting to find his power stroke. Getting both these players would fill two needs for the Nationals. Another option would be to enquire into the availability of recently called up prospect Viciedo to be paired with either Quentin or Beckham. This would allow the Nationals to fill the hole left by trading Adam Dunn with a cheaper and younger alternative to Adam Dunn allowing them to save money for a possible run at Cliff Lee in the offseason.
The other alternative is to keep Adam Dunn and resign him. Dunn’s value is now in question after the Phillies signed Ryan Howard to a ridiculous contract. Reports on Twitter last week from Buster Olney were that four years and $48 million should be enough to get Adam Dunn signed. If these numbers are to be believed then a deal is most likely eminent.
There is no one sure path to contention. The Nationals could resign Adam Dunn only to watch him blow out a knee and never play again. Dunn could be traded and help the White Sox make the playoffs resign with them and be the second coming of Frank Thomas. The only sure thing about the future is that it is unsure. Neither option that the Nationals now face is the correct option. Both options could be a path to contention, and whatever happens hopefully turns out to be the best decision for the future of the ball club.
12 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Buy or sell Dunn's been a hot topic lately...
The biggest discussion we’ve had on this is here. I still wish that SBNation would surface that story because it would be helpful to people who are new to the site to learn how much we’ve hashed this one out and battled over it.
I think RobBobS, Patrick and the majority here are in the hold Dunn lobby and bluelineswinger and me are the minority in the trade Dunn lobby.
This is pretty well written and there is some new stuff here with the addition of the Beckham and Quentin names added and more indications of Nationals interest in a trade.
Personally, I don’t think a deal with the White Sox is going to work out. Their system is not as good as some of the other partners mentioned. I don’t think they’re going to want to trade the youngsters on their roster. Plus, they now have a bigger problem on their hands with Jake Peavy out for the year and few people are mentioning this now when they discuss the White Sox as trade partners.. He was a major part of their winning streak. They may reevaluate their status as buyers and they may look to be using their limited powder to acquire another starting pitcher instead of going after a bat.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
by souldrummer on Jul 8, 2010 1:25 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I wouldn't say I'm firmly in the "DTAD" camp,
but I am in the Rizzo-inspired “Dunn is available, but it’s gotta hurt the team that trades for him” camp. I see Dunn as highly important to their near-term success. Lots of people dismiss him as easily replaceable, but I don’t see that. Carlos Pena? Prince Fielder? Both are Boras clients, Pena’s not going to be any cheaper than Dunn (he will be older though); Fielder’s got another year of arbitration eligibility left, as far as I can tell. Nobody else I can think of comes close to Dunn’s power. So, using Dunn to fill one hole in the organization isn’t very wise if doing so will just open up another hole.
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
Perhaps we are moving together on the issue.
I’m more on resolve it before the trade deadline and don’t settle for draft picks. Picks aren’t going to be ready to contribute by 2013 in all likelihood and that’s too long. Picks aren’t necessarily cheap because you’ve got to pay steadily growing bonuses and spend the money on developing them as well. I’d settle for a trade to an organization like the Angels or Rays because their top prospects are likely to be impact prospects. Getting flawed starters or lower prospects from the White Sox doesn’t seem to move me.
Rizzo seems to me to be unlikely to move him, and that’s Zuckerman’s take on things. He wants a high price, and Rizzo seems to like most of the makeup of the team as it stands.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
By no means do I feel that Dunn is easily replacable
I just feel that the long-term success is far more important, and I think that (like it or not) he can be very valuable as a trade chip in leading to that long-term success. Keep Dunn around and the Nats probably win 3-5 more games this season. That might be the difference between finishing ahead of the Marlins and taking fourth place. Is that what we’re supposed to get excited about?
Again, barring Dunn working an extension with the team that he’s traded to, there’s always the possibility of signing him again as a FA in the offseason.
by bluelineswinger on Jul 8, 2010 10:19 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm at the point, where I don't think Rizzo will meet team's selling price.
I don’t think that he’s going to settle for a team’s 4th/5th best prospects so he’s going to have to find a team whose 4th/5th prospects might be worth Dunn towards building the long term success.
Rays are the preferred destination should we sell now, right? ChiSox probably lack the powder. Angels are starting to fall out of buyer territory, correct?
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Gee... I could put together some lame hypothetical, but I won't bother
The fact of the matter is that Peavy’s injury pretty much takes Daniel Hudson out of the equation from the White Sox’ perspective. If the Nats had something to offer with Dunn that could still help solve Chicago’s immediate hole in the rotation (to be fair, the only arm that could seemingly do that is Livan, and I don’t think that would be amenable to the White Sox) and still make sure they received Hudson back, I’d still like the chances.
The White Sox’ farm system is really thin, in part because Williams has proven that he’ll overpay in the past (see the Peavy deal and the Swisher deal that backfired on him…. early to say that the Peavy deal is a complete loss, but it doesn’t look good). They also have a couple of young players who have graduated from prospect status, such as Beckham and Viciedo. Hudson’s the gem of the system from a SP standpoint, and the dropoff from there is to a guy like Carlos Torres. Torres isn’t a bad pitcher, and he’s probably capable of stepping into a big league rotation immediately. He’s 27, and he hasn’t been stuck in the minors because of injury or visa problems or anything. He might be a slightly souped up version of J.D. Martin, but he wouldn’t be a significant boost to the young pitching.
Their top hitting prospect in the minors at this point would have to be Tyler Flowers, a poor defensive catcher with power and patience. He’s not much of a pure hitter, though. The lone thing that would make him attractive to the Nats is that his bat will play (barely) at first base, and his glove will probably move him there. Whether the Nats thought he’d stick at catcher or not, I don’t think he’d really be much of a centerpiece.
Beckham would be a nice grab for sure if the Nats could get him, but I wouldn’t expect to see the Nats get anything else in return if he were involved. His dropoff this season has been out of nowhere, but there’s every reason to believe he should turn it around.
As for Quentin, I’m not sure I’d say he’s just coming into his power. Injuries have set him back the past couple of years, and he hasn’t looked the same since. However, he was possibly in line to be the AL MVP before his 2008 injury. Service time means shows that he’ll likely be a FA after 2012.
by bluelineswinger on Jul 8, 2010 10:15 PM EDT up reply actions
As Mrs Doghouse puts it, it's like Dunn is playing tee ball.
He flips that bat around almost lazily, like he’s hitting off a tee, and the ball just… goes… and doesn’t stop going until it lands somewhere near Five Guys.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Perhaps Five Guys can help with the contract.
Every time he hits a ball out there it’s good advertising. They’ve got a lot of locations in the area and nationwide. Make it happen. Adam Dunn, the big dude who eats Five Guys and hits balls into their hot grease.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
That sounds dangerous for their fry cooks.
“Adam Dunn is up! Move away from the fryers!”
Rob
"No matter what I talk about, I always get back to baseball."
—Connie Mack
I Am Fully In The Thom Loverro Boat
I don’t know how many of you listen to his show, The Sports Fix on WTEM with Kevin Sheehan, but I truly love Thom’s approach with the Nationals. His take on Adam Dunn is the one that makes most sense….DC has to re-sign him, and if they don’t, the compensation picks will be better than what other teams will likely give up for him in a trade. The truth is, not many teams give up on their prized prospects, but will gladly give away those players who they have already given up on. Face it guys….no one is going to give DC ANYTHING CLOSE to what Adam Dunn is truly worth. Also, WHERE do we find a bat that will replace Adam Dunn? No Free Agent with those credentials will come here! Guaranteed! Adrian? Please. Fielder? Please. Anyone with that level of talent is going elsewhere….until this team proves they are a contender…..but Adam WANTS TO BE HERE! I also like Thom’s position on the window of opportunity for the Nats…..it is these six years, right now, that Strasburg will surely be with the team (barring injury). The Nats have to play for these six years NOW. Signing Dunn and keeping the heart of the lineup intact, is exactley what DC needs…..why create another problem by busting up a proven commodity?
It's all about supply and demand.
The Rangers just overpaid for a Cliff Lee rental. If both the Angels and Rays decide that they need Dunn to keep with the Rangers for the Angels and to stay competitive in the AL East for the Rays, there’s the potential for a deal that will land something of value.
I like Loverro more than a lot of other guys in the DC radio market because he seems willing and almost eager to talk Nats when given the space by All I See is Terps and Skins Craig Sheehan. On the other hand, I called Loverro up and he didn’t really address the weaknesses in the let Dunn walk for picks, which both Zuckerman and Tim Kurtjiann took him to task for when they came on The Sports Fix.
1) Picks cost money too. You have to pay their bonuses. You have to pay to develop them. Loverro is very much on the “We got Jordan Zimmermann for Soriano!” tip. Zimmermann was a historical outlier for his position in the draft. The Nats hit the lottery on Zimmerman. The higher pick, Josh Smoker has been a complete bust. We don’t really know how we’d do with extra picks yet, though, because we haven’t seen enough of Rizzo’s draft track record while with the Nats.
2) The Nats have a limited window to try to win. Zimmerman’s contract is up after 2013. Strasburg won’t be around forever. Dunn isn’t under contract after this year. We don’t control Willingham after next year. We can’t go without season ticket holders forever. Saying the picks are cool compensation for Dunn is saying “Wait and trust me!” to the fanbase and to Zimmerman, a tough message after suffering through ’08 and ’09.
3) Lastly, remember the receiving end of a Dunn trade knows that they will get the picks if we don’t. So you’re not really just trading a rental, like Loverro says. You’re making a trade with another franchise who values the win now of a Dunn rental and the option to try to resign him. You’re making a trade with another team that values the draft picks. If you find a team with surplus resources in its farm system (Rays certainly and Angels to a lesser extent) they can trade their 4th or 5th best prospect who is better than the Nationals best prospect and everybody wins.
I don’t think Dunn will be traded. I think he will be resigned. But I continue to stand by my point of view that the only bad outcome of this situation would be for the Nats to be satisfied with the draft picks. Barring a ridiculous Sorianoesque offer from a competing team (less likely without the gaudy 40/40 stats and all-star Soriano appearance), we will likely resign Dunn.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park.
Mixed views on Thom Loverro
He hates the Lerners, and I think it colors the way that he talks about the team in general. But I’m loathe to really criticize him for it, because out of all the talking heads on local sports radio he’s the only one that seems to really like/pay attention to baseball.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Federal Baseball
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
GAMETHREAD SPONSOR
