Wire Taps: Washington Nationals Need To Decide What To Do With Adam Dunn.
by Patrick Reddington on Aug 10, 2010 2:00 PM EDT
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PrintMLB.com's Bill Ladson wrote recently, in an article entitled, "Inbox: Should Dunn get an extension?", that though he's gone back and forth, he's finally reached the conclusion that, "The Nationals have to find a player who can hit and play defense. If they can't, then sign Dunn to an extension," while offering the caveat that the signing has to be supplemented by the acquisition a "superior defensive second baseman" as Mr. Ladson describes it. ESPN.com's Buster Olney, however, writes this morning in a section of an article entitled, "The glare of the race", which is subtitled, "Moves, deals and decisions", that getting the Nats' big middle-of-the-order-bat signed became a much more difficult proposition when they failed to do so in Spring Training, during the season or before the recently-passed Non-Waiver Trade Deadline. Now, Mr. Olney writes, "...they essentially will have to compete against what Dunn could get as a free agent in the fall,":
"So any number the Nationals propose to Dunn before he becomes a free agent will have to reflect that reality. Here's a scary thought for the Nationals: What if the Yankees or some other team signs two or three Type A free agents? It's possible that Washington could come out of this with only a second- or third-round pick and a sandwich pick as compensation for Dunn, as the Brewers did with CC Sabathia after the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett in the same offseason."
And if you somehow think the possibility of Dunn leaving via free is unlikely, one glance at an article by Chicago Sun-Times' writer Gordon Wittenmyer entitled, "Zambrano still the man in the middle", should destroy any illusions about what a serious risk the Nats have taken, as Mr. Wittenmyer quotes Cubs' third baseman Aramis Ramirez discussing the possibility of adding Dunn to a roster that will more-than-likely lose Derrek Lee to free agency this winter, opening up a significant amount of space on Chicago's payroll:
"'I don't know if they're going to spend the money,' returning third baseman Aramis Ramirez said. 'But Adam Dunn would fit anybody's lineup. But they're going to have to spend a lot of money to get Adam Dunn.'"
In Rizzo We Trust, but please, #signDunn!
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The "poor defense" myth
So Ladson subscribes to this myth as well: “Dunn’s a crappy first-baseman, so the Nats need to let him go.”
What BS. Dunn’s defense at first is not Gold-Glove quality, but it is not bad. And It is certainly not bad enough to let go of his league-leading long-ball bat. Ladson’s nuts. Now that the waiver thing seems to have passed, they need to sign him to an extension. Draft picks are a crapshoot. Dunn’s raking home runs now.
This comment has the potential to open an ugly often-opened can of worms...
Dunn’s D is a source of constant argument. For my part I’d say that he’s better than I ever imagined he’d be at first, especially after watching him in the WBC before he officially became a Nat. And though his bat statistically probably doesn’t make up for his defensive lapses, he’s our power threat and gosh darn it we like him…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Aug 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
I'm not so sure.
Most of us who were wailing and gnashing our teeth about Dunn’s atrocious OF performance have admitted he’s only somewhat below average defensively at 1B. The bat more than makes up for the lack of the range, and his height probably even helps a little bit. In the OF, we were looking at something like +25 runs with the bat and -35 runs with the glove. Sure, 1Bs hit hard, so it’s only +20 runs with bat, but only -5 runs with the glove. That’s a net positive and a huge swing from the OF. Sign Dunn.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
+1 #signDunn!!
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Aug 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions
Would Dunn
agree to something like a 2 year, $25 million deal with a player option in 2013 and a club option in 2014?
2011: $12.5 million
2012: $12.5 million
2013: $15 million player option
2014: $15 million club option
Not that bad of an idea, is it?
I will gladly eat crow if Brandon Jones does well for the 49ers in 2010.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 10, 2010 2:44 PM EDT reply actions
I'm not a big fan of the 4-year deal, but that's exceedingly reasonable in my mind...
Don’t think Dunn will take a 2-year deal. Don’t think he’s going to get 4-years/$60 from anyone either. In Rizzo We Trust.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Aug 10, 2010 2:50 PM EDT up reply actions
Dunn won't do two years
Those option contracts could be a problem especially with those high numbers. Then a team runs the risk of trading and dealing with that payroll. Such as Oswalt wanting his option picked up at $16 million, and even Berkman’s option.
My guess is Dunn will take the money over not playing the field. If an AL team offers him a good amount, and the years to DH, he’ll do it.
Why not us? Why not now?
I really doubt it.
Options usually aren’t substitutes for years. Turn that third year into a guarantee and that fourth year into a player option, and maybe a different story.
um, please visit my soccer (football) blog. it's interesting, I promise. por favor? (filbertway.com)
Sunshine will come to Nats Park, I promise. (visit por favor? my website)
Waivers: Carlos Zambrano
How about the Nationals claim Carlos Zambrano off waivers. I know Zambrano has been inconsistent this season but could he be any worse than Jason Marquis? It would cost some money but maybe the Nats swap Dunn for Zambrano through waivers then use the money that would have gone to Dunn to sign Harper. Then try to sign Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason kind of like when the Nationals attempted to sign Mark Texiera. I seriously doubt that Pujols would leave St. Louis unless the Nats could offer him a ridiculous amount of money. I think the Nationals should take a chance on Carlos Zambrano before the Mets. I think a Strasburg / Zambrano combination would be worth taking on the remaining his contract.
Reportedly, the New York Mets were trying to trade for Carlos Zambrano but nothing got done because the Cubs didn’t want Luis Castillo’s contract in exchange, odd, because Castillo’s contract ends in 2011 with $6 million due next season and Zambrano’s continues on until 2013 for nearly $60 million.
Yet, I don’t expect for this to die down, if Zambrano pitches back to his true form coming off the restricted list in time for August, I find it hard that the Cubs wont try to get a deal done while the market for him is high. He will almost certainly clear waivers but if the Cubs deal him they still will have to pay a chunk of his remaining contract.
Pitching style
His main pitch is a hard, moving two-seam fastball that clocks at around 90–94 mph and a four-seam fastball that can reach 99 mph, but usually settles around 96 or 97 mph. He also has a heavy sinker that he throws with a split grip, a pitch that hitters often beat into the ground – an advantage considering Wrigley Field’s tall, thick grass. He always makes sure to mix in plenty of sharp-breaking sliders and split-finger fastballs to keep hitters from sitting on his fastball. In addition, Carlos has also developed a changeup that he throws mostly to left-handed batters. His main weakness is a lack of pinpoint control, leading to a tendency to surrender walks. Nevertheless, Zambrano seems to be hurt less by walks than many pitchers, since batters hit many more ground balls than fly balls against him. This can be attributed to the sinking movement of his fastball.
Zambrano is noted for his vibrant personality on the mound. He allows his emotions to be evident, always indicating whether he is happy with his performance or not. He is known for having meltdowns both on the field and in the dugout. Zambrano’s pitches match this nature, as every pitch in his repertoire has significant movement. His pitches come out of a slinging, three-quarter to low-three-quarter delivery.
Claiming Candidates: New York Mets and New York Yankees
Verdict: Zambrano will clear waivers and when that happens they will try to gauge interest. The only teams who need pitching and can take on his contract, or at least part of it, are the Mets and Yankees. The Mets went after Brett Myers and Carlos Zambrano at the deadline but failed if they are desperate and in the race, the Cubs with a new manager and team will want to get rid of another bad seed in Big Z.
Absurd, to say the least. haha
What’s your source on that one? (you could spare the scouting report too)
um, please visit my soccer (football) blog. it's interesting, I promise. por favor? (filbertway.com)
Sunshine will come to Nats Park, I promise. (visit por favor? my website)
You may not need a scouting report,
but others might appreciate it.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
No I don't mean it like I think you're seeing it
Link preferred, that’s all
I mean, this probably was quoted from somewhere:
Zambrano is noted for his vibrant personality on the mound. He allows his emotions to be evident, always indicating whether he is happy with his performance or not. He is known for having meltdowns both on the field and in the dugout. Zambrano’s pitches match this nature, as every pitch in his repertoire has significant movement. His pitches come out of a slinging, three-quarter to low-three-quarter delivery.
Claiming Candidates: New York Mets and New York Yankees
Probably indicates it was taken from somewhere, so the link would be preferred. Otherwise it seems kinda random and rant-like, or is good enough to deserve a FanShot or FanPost.
um, please visit my soccer (football) blog. it's interesting, I promise. por favor? (filbertway.com)
Sunshine will come to Nats Park, I promise. (visit por favor? my website)
I prefer not to have to follow the link
I don’t mind someone providing the link, of course, but I’m typically not one to follow a link unless someone sufficiently summarizes the contents therein. My standard line is, “show some leg”.
Obviously, if someone is taking words verbatim from another site, he should cite the reference.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
Doesn't this sound kind of incredulous to you?
How about the Nationals claim Carlos Zambrano off waivers. I know Zambrano has been inconsistent this season but could he be any worse than Jason Marquis? It would cost some money but maybe the Nats swap Dunn for Zambrano through waivers then use the money that would have gone to Dunn to sign Harper. Then try to sign Pujols or Adrian Gonzalez in the offseason kind of like when the Nationals attempted to sign Mark Texiera. I seriously doubt that Pujols would leave St. Louis unless the Nats could offer him a ridiculous amount of money. I think the Nationals should take a chance on Carlos Zambrano before the Mets. I think a Strasburg / Zambrano combination would be worth taking on the remaining his contract.
Parts in bold I find problematic, parts not in bold I can understand or accept.
- Marquis costs half as much as Zambrano.
- Zambrano makes $18,875,000 this year. Dunn makes $12M. I hardly see how you can swap and then have extra “free money” to sign Harper.
- I would love to sign Pujols or A-Gon, but should we kid ourselves? Plus neither are free agents after this season.
- The Texiera example, as some of us FB’ers have previously discussed, is unique. I think we knew that we had almost no shot at him, so at the very least our attempt gave us “cred” (and I quote).
- I appreciate the compilation of the news but a link to verify would be appreciated. I find this
-“Claiming Candidates: New York Mets and New York Yankees”- to be pure speculation until shown otherwise. - The last bold about it being worth it to take on his contract is just solely my opinion. And you agree with me on that front.
- P.S. The scouting report is fine (although I think its a bit out of place or at the least needs to be blockquoted if it’s not original (so I can skip over it)), but do we really need the scouting report on his mentality, or what “he’s noted for”? Eh a bit redundant for me.
Yes I’m picky, but oh well that’s what it is.
um, please visit my soccer (football) blog. it's interesting, I promise. por favor? (filbertway.com)
Sunshine will come to Nats Park, I promise. (visit por favor? my website)
This is a bad idea on several fronts.
Zambrano is a serious head case. He hasn’t been good in a long while. He’s expensive. Dunn is worth a lot more than Zambrano. Dunn would have to clear waivers, and he won’t. The Cubs have Derrick Lee.
Pujols is not going to be a free agent until at least next year.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
And I agree that Zambrano is terrible. He isn't very good
And is an as*hole while he’s at it. A $15M+ waste
um, please visit my soccer (football) blog. it's interesting, I promise. por favor? (filbertway.com)
Sunshine will come to Nats Park, I promise. (visit por favor? my website)
You're right... Zambrano will clear waivers
The reason is that if anyone claims him, the Cubs will do exactly what the Blue Jays did with Alex Rios last summer and thank whichever team claims him for taking his contract off their hands. Teams placing claims on guys like Dunn (even just to block other teams from acquiring him) , whose contracts are up at the end of the year, makes perfect sense. There’s a virtual guarantee that the team will pull him back if they can’t work a trade. There’s also a certainty that the team won’t be taking on a long-term contract that could set them back years.
In all honesty, Kenny Williams’ strategy to take Rios off the Blue Jays hands for nothing but his contract has paid some serious short-term dividends. He’ll make an average annual value of $12 million for them through the 2014 season. Rios has responded by being their best all-around positional player to this point in the season, batting .296/.345/.481 with 17 HR and 24 SB while playing a slightly above average CF. His 2.9 WAR ranks just ahead of Konerko and Alexei Ramirez (both 2.8), and Fangraphs calculates the dollar value of his play at $11.5 million so far… just short of the actual $12 million he’ll earn. With a month and a half to play, he’s a safe bet to finish with surplus value this season, and he’s flat in the middle of his prime at 29.
In other words, in terms of the most recent case that you could be comparing Zambrano’s situation to, things seem to have worked out fairly well… so far. I do feel that, while he was a bit of an albatross for the Blue Jays, Rios was in a better situation for a team to take him on. There are several reasons for this…
1) Rios was a really strong defensive corner outfielder who had shown some prowess in CF, which is what the White Sox got him for.
2) Zambrano is due the same amount of money that Rios was at the time Rios was claimed. The difference is in years…. Rios had 5/60 remaining. Zambrano has 3/60 remaining. That translates to an $8 million per year difference.
3) Rios is an everyday player who contributes in all facets of the game.
4) Rios had his own character issues. If I recall correctly, he cursed out a fan in Kansas City just a few weeks before he was waived by Toronto. Still, the lengthy history of showboating, being unable to control his emotions on the field, and going after his teammates just wasn’t there. They are with Zambrano.
Coughing up $20 million a year for the next three seasons to dig the Cubs out of debt just doesn’t make sense financially. Given Zambrano’s constant attitude and character issues (as well as his complete disappearance from a performance standpoint) means it doesn’t really make sense from a baseball standpoint either.
My guess is that the Cubs will try and see if they can strike a deal with someone after he’s cleared waivers (I say after because no GM in his right mind did anything but snicker when he was placed on waivers). If they have any hopes of getting anything done, they’re probably going to have to eat more than half of the remaining $60 million bill. In terms of the Nats interest, I’d say that if Chicago ate $45 million or so (making Zambrano essentially a $5 million a year guy for the remainder of his deal)….. Nah…. Still wouldn’t want the headache.
Other points……..
Dunn has already been placed on waivers and claimed by someone (conflicting reports on whether it was the Dodgers or Phillies). The Nats should have had until Tuesday afternoon to strike a deal with that team. They did not, and pulled him back off waivers. Dunn CAN be placed on waivers again, but he CAN NOT be pulled back off waivers again.
There’s that little issue where Dunn is making more than $6 million less than Zambrano this season, which means they’re not cutting salary by swapping the two. I believe someone else brought this up. Again, it doesn’t matter at all because (at this point) it’s impossible.
The lack of sources was brought up as well. I’m particularly interested in the source for the Mets discussion of Luis Castillo with him. Why? If the Cubs didn’t want Castillo’s $6 million through next season, then they’re not going to agree to eat a lot of money in any Zambrano deal, which really destroys the possibility of them being able to move him at all. Essentially, if the Cubs were looking at the Zambrano situation as many feel they should (simply subtracting him from the clubhouse is beneficial enough) at this point, $6 million is nothing…. In fact, it’s a net gain of $54 million.
Of course, you don’t cite any particulars about whether the Cubs would have sent cash in the deal as well. From a cost-benefit standpoint, though, trading $60 million worth of a guy you don’t want for $6 million and change (the remainder of Castillo’s 2010 salary) would have been a massive win for the Cubs… even if they just released Castillo a week after the deal and ate the remainder of his salary.
I think Jim Hendry is convinced that someone’s going to be stupid enough to eat $50-60 million to take Zambrano off his hands in a post-waiver trade. I think he’s sorely mistaken. He’s far too volatile, both on and off the field.
by bluelineswinger on Aug 11, 2010 2:35 AM EDT up reply actions
Now, I want them to sign Dunn since .....
they did not get a trade done before the trade deadline. I wrote extensively on why I wanted them to acquire two proven players with good defensive skills, even if some offense was to be sacrificed. But it didn’t happen, so now I am in the camp to offer him enough to get a contract signed. Then I would like them to listen to offers for him again in the off season, but of course drive a hard bargain. A previous comment suggests something I mentioned in an earlier post, that is the arguments for or against trading/signing Dunn are not purely logical. Many of us, myself not included in the case of Dunn, just like him to stay and be part of an emerging strong middle of the order lineup. If Morse continues to do well,which I believe he will, it makes for a very good 3 through 6 lineup. And he is very likeable—I get it, but a winning team is more important to me. My believe is that if the defense does not improve the Nats are still looking at a sub .500 season next year, even with Dunn.
As an aside I will make a prediction, which I hope to remember to either claim credit or discredit for in about a year from now:
Morse will be a better offensive player than Willingham (who I like) and be an adequate right fielder, if he is not switched to 1B.
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