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Wire Taps: Should Washington Nationals Fans Prepare For Adam Dunn's Departure?

MASNSports.com's Ben Goessling has promised another installment of DC GM Mike Rizzo's MASNSports.com blog this morning in which the current state of negotations with the Nats' big middle-of-the-order bat Adam Dunn will be discussed. In light of Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell's article yesterday entitled, "Washington Nationals' future lineup likely won't include Adam Dunn", which Mr. Boswell starts by writing jarringly, "Adam Dunn is done in Washington," only to later admit that he must, "...concede there's a long shot chance I'm wrong. The Nats and Dunn are still on decent terms, and they should be," the post by Mr. Rizzo will be pored over for any hint of a change in the team's public stance about whether or not they'll #signDUNN, as some in NatsTown are wondering if fans of the Washington Nationals aren't being prepared for the eventual departure of the nation's capital's modern-era-Hondo.

The Washington Post writer ends the article by arguing for Dunn to remain in the nation's capital. The crux of Mr. Boswell's argument focuses on the Dunn-effect in the middle of the Nats' lineup, with the WaPost writer noting that in, "The past two years, [Ryan] Zimmerman has blossomed with Dunn hitting behind him," going from .266/.330/.458 in 2007, and .283/.333/.442 in 2008, up to .292/.364/.525 in his first year hitting in front of Dunn and his current .298/.384/.514 line, thanks in part, at least, to the big bat hitting behind him in the order, which in turn results in the hitter batting second benefiting as well, by hitting in front of the two of them, "...where a potential future star of your choice, whether it's Desmond, Espinosa or Bernadina, can get tons of pitches to hit."

Star-divide

Similarly, in an interview on Sirius/XM MLB Network Radio show "The Power Alley" recently, DC GM Mike Rizzo told hosts Kevin Kennedy and Jim Duquette, that the Nats were, "...trying to get something done," with Adam Dunn, "because we think that he's a big part of our future and he makes everybody in that lineup so much better and we're working at it diligently every day," while Nats' team President Stan Kasten's was quoted last week in ESPN.com's Jayson Stark entitled, "Is it time to push back trading deadline?", saying that the Nationals would, "...still like to bring back Adam Dunn," though he (forebodingly to some) acknowledged that, "if Dunn leaves as a free agent and 'we don't have that," (with "that" being a big middle-of-the-order bat), "'...we have to replace it,'" because as Mr. Kasten sees it, according to Mr. Stark, "... better days are closer than most people realize."

Which is pretty much what the Nats' Face of the Franchise™ Ryan Zimmerman told MASNSports.com's Byron Kerr back in early July when it was still assumed that Dunn would be dealt at the Non-Waiver Trade Deadline:

Ryan Zimmerman: "'One of the hardest things to find on a team is a 3-4-5. I think we have a pretty good one here. Personally, I think if you get rid of a couple of those guys, we will maybe take a step backward instead of forwards. I don't think we are that far away.'"

Dunn wants to stay. The Nats' FOF wants him in the lineup. The GM and team President, at least publically, have said they'd like to work something out...So why haven't they? Why has it gotten this far? Why should Adam Dunn, now that it has come this far, not test the market and see if he can get the 3-4-year deal he's wanted for years? According to the Washington Post's Mr. Boswell, the 10-year-veteran and perennial 38-40 HR/100+ RBI threat wants to know what else he's got to prove "What do I have to do [to stay here] that I haven't done?" Dunn said Tuesday. "I get it - the defense, the stat guys." Can the Nationals replace the offense and simultaneously improve the Nats' defense? Not likely. Mr. Boswell ends his article by answering his own questions: 

"Sluggers who have 350 homers at the age of 30 and want to play for the Nats don't grow on trees. In fact, there's only one in existence.

"Take a (last) good look."

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Not happy at all

Frankly I will not be able to express the level of my anger until DUNN is signed by someone else…….Neither Mannero nor Harper will be stars @ 1st base in the next three years……So sign DUNN…….This team needs a #5 hitter perferrably playing CF or RF with BERNIE in left.

by artistfork on Sep 10, 2010 8:01 AM EDT reply actions  

Agree on Marrero and Harper being a few years away...

Dunn could be “the bridge” as Mr. Boswell notes. I just don’t see them replacing Dunn, so if the Nats value a stronger defensive presence at first over Dunn’s offense I say let him go. But they’re not going to replace his offense on the FA market or from their own system, so I don’t see what the choice is here. Letting Dunn go is saying, we’re not going to compete in the next year or two so the monetary investment isn’t worth it…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Sep 10, 2010 8:21 AM EDT up reply actions  

They need to do something in the outfield

Even with Harper coming that outfield is just awful, especially when you consider that they really have no idea what to expect from Hammer in the future. even without Dunn, the Nats have the chance to ave one of the best infields in baseball, Zim is Zim, Desi has amazing range and has been tearing it up lately at the plate, and has GREAT inside the park power and speed., all of which can also be said for Desi, and none of those guys, even Zim, is in their prime yet.. I agree that signing Dunn may be a waste of money, because he is unlikely to be the same in a few years. Yes, the Nats could contend in 2012, but Harper is unlikely to play the full season that year, and Strasburg, even if he comes back from Surgery 100% will be on limited innings. It really depends on how competitive the Lerners think the Nats need to be for the next 2 years to keep the fans leading up to a serious run in 2013.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Sep 10, 2010 8:37 AM EDT up reply actions  

Fan momentum is tempting to factor in....

but I get the feeling Rizo likes to make “baseball” deceisions, Kasten makes overall business decsisions, and the Lerners have yet to really sway me one way or the other….. I hope Rizzo can get a 3 yr deal done b/c that would give us the best bridge.

but if not then we probably need to make a splash by going after a Crawford like FA to be the bridge instead… I know many think we couldn’t get a player like Crawford but then again we just had the best draft out of any team in the past few years….maybe we need to bargain a few of those away….

all said it seems like a better businesss decision to keep Dunn for 3 yrs than to sign an expensive FA who doesn’t have Duns HR prowness…..baseball decisions I will leave to smarter folks…..

by NewJerseyAveSE on Sep 10, 2010 9:18 AM EDT up reply actions  

My recent line given the Crawford skeptics...

….is that Crawford = “some other name to help the Nats make a splash, either in pitching or with the bat”

After the season is over but before the hot stove league, somebody here should research the answers to those questions.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

You know,

You can’t trade players from the first year draft until the next draft. So, no trading Solis (not that I’d want them to do something like that).

Rob

"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith

by RobBobS on Sep 10, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

Better way of putting this is that there are some guys between the 2010 draft...

…and the bigs who may have some value. There aren’t too many of those right now, but Burgess, Marrero, Milone are guys who might have a little value somewheres and are blocked by Harper, Dunn, and somebody else (whole host of guys in the system who could be better than Milone) in the 2012-2013 window. This is the other reason why we are really rooting for prospects in this category like Milone to get even better.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

Amen on this one.
It really depends on how competitive the Lerners think the Nats need to be for the next 2 years to keep the fans leading up to a serious run in 2013.

And I think that this is the real argument that’s being waged here on Dunn rather than what he would actually provide as a player and whether that’s worth the risk/reward.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

Counting on Marrero...

…as anything more than bench right now seems to be to be optimistic. I don’t like what I’m hearing about him on the radio broadcasts about the quality of his at bats. In other words, for me “bridge to Marrero” has become “bridge to Bloxom, Moore, or Marrero”. Honestly, I’m going to probably agree with others outside the org who I predict will downgrade Marrero from B- to C+, while maintaining my fan optimism that I will be very, very happy to give him a trial at AAA and would take great pleasure if he proved me and other skeptics wrong.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:08 PM EDT up reply actions  

From a "non-baseball" standpoint, Dunn is one of the biggest reasons I find the Nats so likeable.

Without him, they’re just the Marlins in a different city – lots of young talent, most of whom I don’t know much about.

by Texas Wahoo on Sep 10, 2010 10:26 AM EDT reply actions  

I think there's a difference to the Nats.

We will likely keep our arbitration eligible players due pay raises at a higher rate than the real bottom feeders like the Royals. That’s basically how we got Matt Capps and Josh Willingham, productive guys that team’s trying to do everything to win at an affordable price should have extracted more value from.

To me there’s five levels of teams economically:
1) Teams so broke or so cheap that they can’t keep guys as they approach arbitration. (See the Marlins, the Royals, and probably the pre-Longoria Rays).

2) Teams that keep their arbitration eligible guys but never really overpay for free agents. (The Nats right now.)

3) Teams that keep their arbitration eligible guys that occasionally overpay for free agents, frequently accurate play the free agents and certainly invest heavily in the draft and international signings. (We fit this category in my opinion. We’ll overpay for a Pudge or a Marquis, accurately pay for a Dunn but we have no evidence to say that we’ll go after one Crawford, Werth, Lee or other big splash signing. Braves? Reds?)

4) Teams that keep their arbitration eligible guys, occasionally overpay for free agents, accurately pay the free agents, usually invest heavily in the draft and international signings (might not when the system is full or blocked), and will overpay homegrown free agents or leveraged free agents during a championship window. (Does this fit the Reds with Chapman? Not sure. Get this right when you’re the Mariners. Phillies certainly. Giants maybe. White Sox. Tigers).

5) The Yankees and Red Sox. (Budget be damned! We’re in it ever year to win it. Phillies are only out of this category because they’ll let Werth walk for Dominic Brown, although getting Oswalt make this borderline for me.)

Be interested in any feedback on this one, it’s the kind of thing worthy of expansion into an offseason fanpost around Hot Stove time.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:21 PM EDT up reply actions  

A fanposting on how everything works would be great i.e.

arbitration, rule 5, etc. I know I am lost in woods sometimes about how that stuff works and it helps to understand it in order to make stratetegic opinions

by NewJerseyAveSE on Sep 10, 2010 1:50 PM EDT up reply actions  

Rule 5 confused me into very recently.

So I read a wikipedia article on it. I can still be shaky on arbitration some times (such as the strict defintion of nontender) so I don’t feel fully qualified to right that kind of piece. I think that there are couple of people more qualified than me to write that when they have the time. Hopefully, I’ll have time to research and author that kind of article if nobody else has time to attack that topic. It’s really important that some of the greener folks on the business side of baseball get some knowledge on this if they want to be informed on the Hot Stove League. I know my ignorance of business matters in the past has led me to really question some decisions that in hindsight made more sense.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 4:06 PM EDT up reply actions  

I'm not suggesting the Nats and Marlins have the same philosophy.

I was merely suggesting that the two teams might as well be the same to me. If I didn’t live in DC, I would probably know more Marlins players than Nationals players.

I might still go to the games without Dunn, but probably not. At that point they will be just a conduit to see other teams’ stars to me.

by Texas Wahoo on Sep 10, 2010 2:41 PM EDT up reply actions  

Thanks for the clarification.

The Marlins are both our rivals now and a truly, truly Evil Empire for Nats fans. Expos fans don’t like Loria and don’t like how he seems to be more into profiting from baseball teams than helping them win and rewarding the investment and commitment of the fans.

Kind of makes you wonder if he was a more than significant part of the baseball problem in Montreal and led to everybody wasting their time by buying out that ownership group that failed on the domed downtown stadium proposal.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 4:09 PM EDT up reply actions  

FWIW

When I go to Nats stadium I see plenty of Strasbourg Tshirts, plenty of Zimmerman tshirts and lots of Dunn tshirts. That’s it. For better or for worse, Dunn is one of the few stars that this team has and that people like to come and watch play. I kinda feel like Nats fans have developed a connection with him in a way that they haven’t to most of the rest of the roster.

That said, I’d accept the management’s word for it if they said they couldn’t come to a realistic deal with him.

by Illustrious86 on Sep 10, 2010 10:32 AM EDT reply actions  

I think thats my real problem. I still don’t trust this management. I probably should I have been a fan the entire five years. I never thought they were cheap. I don’t have a problem with Bowden or Rizzo.I bought into “the team is a new baby and has to be nurtured”…….I just know what DUNN has meant to ZIMM. There is no denying that.

by artistfork on Sep 10, 2010 10:55 AM EDT up reply actions  

I now believe that...

…Zim is attached to Dunn for clubhouse presence and the fact that he is the first guy to start easing the burden on him as power producing threat. Either Dunn succeeds and he makes Zimmerman’s life easier or Dunn fails and he becomes the lightning rod for team failure instead of Zim. If Dunn were to get overpaid elsewhere and the franchise made a good faith effort to replace his production, clubhouse presence, and share the load qualities, Zim would probably go along with that and still remain friends with Dunn. Zim understands business I think.

But if Dunn walks, it increases the pressure to win, especially if they go pitching and defense only, a less than fun way to play for Zim and a method that’s got to put Adrian Gonzalez level pressure on his offensive performance.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions  

if the Nats don't sign Dunn, it does not mean they are going "pitching and defense only"

the defense part of this equation is a smoke-screen, perpetuated by the front office, to deflect cricitism about the money debate.

if they don’t sign Dunn it’s for the simple fact that they don’t believe he is worth the value of his contract demands. if his demands lower to where Rizzo thinks he’s then getting value, they’ll sign him.

all this hand-wringing and gnashing of teeth about defense is subterfuge.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 10, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I agree with this.

But I do think there are elements of the organization philosophy that will be revealed about the continuing Dunn saga, just as there were about the draft and international signing period this year.

Basically, that depends on whether they pocket the dough, replace him with a pitcher, or replace him with a bat, especially a high profile bat.

Are you a Konerko, Pena, or Lee guy? Be interested in other first base replacement candidates, or shift Willingham/Morse to 1B and get an outfielder instead candidates.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

Willingham/Morse are not 1Bs

and I maintain that the free agent market is not the only place to find a 1B. Carlos Pena is my preference out of the three you mention, but by no means am I advocating that. he’s older than Dunn and not an elite fielder despite his rep.

Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com

by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 10, 2010 2:07 PM EDT up reply actions  

+ 1, no more let's see if x guy can play x position....

Get a RFer and a first baseman. Please.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Sep 10, 2010 3:10 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

You've said free agency's not the only way

and I believe that, but I simply cannot imagine a scenario in which an adequate replacement for Dunn is attained any other way. Trade?

Well, I for one would be quite delighted if they managed to pull off a trade for Adrian Gonzalez — as much as I like Dunn, AG would be a big improvement. Trouble is, I don’t see how the Nats could ever pull this off. They simply don’t have the piece parts to get him — short of trading Zimmermann (I wouldn’t want to have them trade away next’s year’s ace!) Besides, even if they had him for next year they’d have an even bigger headache all season with trying to get him to re-sign.

How about Prince Fielder? Let me rephrase: WHY Prince Fielder? He’s darn near identical to Dunn in most aspects, save for the one about durability: the Prince is just the sort of guy you’d expect to breakdown dramatically, soon.

Casey Kotchman? Well, there’s a good fielding first baseman that can’t hit. A HUGE drop off in production from Dunn.

How about Nick Swisher? While I do think he’d be a reasonably good 1b, I don’t think of the Yankees as the type of team that would trade him simply to avoid arbitration or free agency negotiations.

Anyway, if anyone can come up with a trade that might work for a that doesn’t represent a huge decline in production, I’d like to see it.

Rob

"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith

by RobBobS on Sep 10, 2010 3:13 PM EDT up reply actions   1 recs

This sounds like a job for....

….bluelineswinger! Swinging by a thread to add narrative to a debate.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 4:11 PM EDT up reply actions  

+1 on this comment by the way.

I don’t know how a trade would work. I see us as being a year away from having one of the middle prospects leap forward and have value. Brad Meyers failure to make even a baby step forward is a sad, sad thing for me on the prospect front.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 4:12 PM EDT up reply actions  

Why is Morse not a 1B?

Personally, I don’t want him there everyday, but he must be at least somewhat better than Dunn or he wouldn’t be a defensive replacement there sometimes.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 4:10 PM EDT up reply actions  

You don't really have to accept management's word.

Either he signs a ridiculously out of budget contract like the Soriano one. (And the Cubs are certainly a candidate to keep throwing good money after bad and overpay Dunn after overpaying Soriano.)
Or we sign an alternative to Dunn who better fits our organizational philosophy (which is where the Crawford Lobby comes in).
Or we pocket the money and everybody stays mad until they win. I’d advised them to win within one to to years of starting to pocket the money if they don’t want to get run over like a truck with season ticket dollars as the Capitals remain contenders and the Wizards likely improve through draft picks and the Leonsis way.

On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.

by souldrummer on Sep 10, 2010 1:24 PM EDT up reply actions  

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