Nationals Daily Evolutions 9/9/10
by David Huzzard on Sep 9, 2010 11:00 AM EDT
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PrintI feel like people are focusing on the wrong issue from yesterday's game. All season long this team has failed with a runner on third and less than two outs. It is fundamental baseball. Trade an out for a run. It is just pathetic to see so many weak pop-ups and strike-outs in that situation. I have heard some people go so far to saw there is no such thing as a productive out, but I am pretty sure a Bernadina sac fly would have been a far better out then his weak pop-up. However I don't think we should lose site of how many rookies are playing. It can be assumed they will get better at situational hitting as they get more experienced. Anyway enough of my chatter on with the links.
In case you missed tha game yesterday here is the story of the game focusing on Adam Dunn missing a grounder that most believe he should have either gloved or knocked down. --Dave Nichols from natsnewsnetwork.com
The Nats may have lost the series yesterday, but if you see them play in Nats Park you have a better than 50% chance to see them win. Combine terrible road record, terrible interleague, and no four game win streaks, and in a way it is amazing this team isn't worse. --MissChatter at csnwashington.com
During yesterdays game Livo had an interesting out. I didn't see it yet, but it sounds like something I would expect from Livo. He just doesn't get rattled. --Adam Kilgore from washingtonpost.com
The Nationals are going to have to figure out what to do with the leadoff spot with Nyjer suspended. The answer might come in the form of rookie sensation Danny Espinosa. --Bill Ladson from nationals.com
I mentioned the complete lack of the three game win streak earlier, and one adventurous blogger has a plan to make the season much more interesting while hoping for a four game win streak. --DangerNat at natsnq.com
The Nationals may have reached their conclusion on Adam Dunn's future with the team, and it might not be a popular one for the fanbase. --Thomas Boswell in The Washington Post
Boswell's use of the term stat nerd makes me wonder if people like being called that and if I am a nerd. --Me at 'Til Death do us Part
Others aren't so sure the answer is as final as Boswell and think the off-season questions might be a little confusing if Dunn stays in Washington. An exploration of what the most pressing off-season needs could be. My opinion is it is pitching. Listing a bunch of could be's, has beens, and never will be's as a rotation just doesn't cut it. I am sure this team could add one of these guys; De La Rosa, Lilly, Pavano, or Bonderman. --Mark Zuckerman at natsinsider.com
More links and opinions after the jump.
Want information on who will be at the Nats instructional league. Some of these names are interesting, and it is good to learn who the team views as part of the future. --Byron Kerr masnsports.com
This promotion always seems to be popular. The Nats are once again giving the jerseys off their backs to a few lucky fans. --Cheryl Nichols from natsnewsnetwork.com
You know that buy two get two free deal. It is getting a lot of attention. Also is Ryan Zimmerman really that bad of a poster boy for the franchise? I mean he does lead the league in fangraphs WAR. --Barry Petchesky from deadspin.com
Around the NL East
The Mets took a team field trip to Walter Reed while here for this past series, but a few Mets players decided not to go. How big of a deal should be made of this? --Craig Calcaterra from nbcsports.com
Josh Johnson is hurting and might be done for the rest of the season. --yahoosports.com
General Baseball
As awards season gets closer there will be more and more debate on who should get what award, and it looks like the AL Cy Young is going to be the big debate this year. It is pure old school vs. new school with Sabathia leading in Wins and Felix Hernandez being better at pitching. --Tim Marchman at tmarchman.com
Leading into the next big award debate is that the Rockies are not yet out of the playoff race, and if the past tells us anything it is to not count them out. --Joe Palikowski at fangraphs.com
Here is one look at Carlos Gonzalez and how playing in Coors Field might affect his road splits in more ways than the obvious. --Joe Posnanski at si.com
That of course isn't the end of the debate. Another piece of evidence in the case against CarGo is that runs just aren't as valuable in Coors Field. This actually includes one of the goofier things about stats. the average runs scored on a homer is 1.4 of course everyone knows that it is impossible to score 1.4 runs, but it still looks funny to see. --Dave Cameron from fangraphs.com
And of course there is the counter to these arguments. Pretty much that it doesn't matter where Carlos Gonzalez plays he is still putting up amazing numbers. --Eric Neyer from milhighfly.com
Of course Carlos Gonxalez is also one of three guys battling it out for a triple crown. It is unlikely that he wins it, and it might be unlikely we ever see it won again simply because there are more teams playing the game of baseball. --Joe Sheehan at si.com
Keeping Pujols has to be the top priority for the Cardinals, but they might not be able to if they let La Russa go, but they might have to let La Russa go in order to afford Albert Pujols. --Jeff Passan at yahoosports.com
I have to wait an entire day to watch baseball again. I know the team needs off days, but my nights seem really long without baseball. Enjoy your off day and see you tomorrow.
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three game winning streaks
the nats have had eight of them including two recently
Too many blasted fact checkers on this site.
Always embarassing the writers before they get a chance to proofread their stuff fully.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
Thank god no one else ever makes mistakes...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Sep 9, 2010 11:49 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Anyone see this trailer yet? Skip to about 1:43 (if you don’t want to watch the whole thing) to see why I’m mentioning a movie trailer in the Daily Evolutions. I think this movie now becomes must-watch for me, although I’m not a big Owen Wilson fan. I am, however, a pretty big Paul Rudd fan.
Josh Johnson being done for the season seriously jeopardizes my Fantasy Title hopes. Dernnit.
by Andrew Davidson on Sep 9, 2010 11:37 AM EDT reply actions
Dare I say it.
Federal Baseball at the movies? At a theater that would give us a discounted group rate? I dare!
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
In Arlington of course. ;-)
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
perhaps downstairs from the Caps rookie practices which will be going on all next week
Aim for the head baby Jesus
I dislike that Reese Witherspoon has a UVA bag in the trailer. I like that the crazy cop that gets fired on The Wire apparently plays for the Nats.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
You mean Kevin Mench?
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
They really do look alike,
If it wasn’t for the guys voice in the clip I might have thought that it was in fact Mench
Aim for the head baby Jesus
I would say that "many people" people believe Dunn should have gloved the ball
I would have a difficult time believing the MOST people feel this way.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
If I had a little time,
I would investigate whether the Nats are really that much worse than other teams in these situations. E.g. scoring runners from third with less than two out. I know we like to think that they are monumentally bad in this regard, but I’m not yet convinced this is the case. Can anyone prove it?
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
It's a researchable question, of course.
I’m willing to try my hand at it, but if someone beats me to it I won’t mind. I’ll put up a fanpost when I have it together.
"Inconceivable!"
"You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means."
-The Princess Bride
The Nationals are 7th in the league in scoring the runner form thrid with less than two outs.
at 52%. the league ranges from 56% to 47%.
here’s the link.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 1:25 PM EDT up reply actions
they are 11th in the league in having those opportunities.
combine the fact the get fewer runners to third with less than two outs, with league average production in those situations, and it makes it more precious every time they strand one.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 1:28 PM EDT up reply actions
fyi, Nats are smack dab in the middle of the league scoring any baserunner.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 1:36 PM EDT up reply actions
The big issue though,
is that we tend to operate on the assumption that the Nats are just bad in these situations, when it appears that they are pretty much like every other team. The fact that they get themselves into this situation apparently less than they should, that’s fodder for investigation.
But the oft-repeated refrain of “RISP-FAIL” on this site would lead one to believe things which are overblown beyond proportion.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
yup.
the Nats just don’t have as many opportunities, which speaks to 6 of the top 9 hitters on the Nats having OBPs less than .327.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
This is why stats are so important. The perception was in some ways wrong (railing against it is fun though so even though I know it is not accurate I will still complain when watching a game or when it directly or indirectly costs us a game). Now we know that what the Nationals really need isn’t more guys that can just make contact, but they need more guys that can just get on base or maybe go from first to third on singles, or any number of things that gets runners to third more often with less than two outs.
by David Huzzard on Sep 9, 2010 1:51 PM EDT up reply actions
they need guy better at getting on base.
period.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 1:52 PM EDT up reply actions
You've hit the nail on the head.
Mr. Morgan, I’m looking at you. Mr. Guzman, … well, you’re excused now.
Rob
"Ninety feet between home plate and first base may be the closest man has ever come to perfection." -- Red Smith
The rookies
How much improvement do you think we can expect from guys like Desmond and Bernadina in that department, and let’s also not forget Espinosa and Ramos could see significant time in the majors next year but will suffer growing pains as well.
Desmond, Bernadina, Espinosa, Ramos, Strasburg, Storen, Atilano, Maya, English
Is that all the guys playing their rookie seasons or that made their MLB debut this season?
by David Huzzard on Sep 9, 2010 2:08 PM EDT up reply actions
OBP
i think we can expect to see Desi and Espi both in the .340 range. while not elite, it’s acceptable for middle infielders with some pop. Espi’s MiLB OBP in 3 seasons was .365, so he has shown patience before. Desi’s minor league OBP was .326, but got better as he rose through the ranks. i think his OBP will be more hit-driven than Espi’s.
i hold out hope that Bernadina can bring his up to that level, as his MiLB OBP was 352.
being good runners helps all three out in this regard, though their walk rates will obviously bear watching as they gain experience.
Ramos concerns me that his OBP will be almost exclusively hit-driven. but if a good defensive catcher hitting 8th can bat .260 and give you occasional pop, you take that every day.
again, minor league numbers aren’t the tell-all, but if guys are generating a decent OBP without over-inflated averages, it shows they are capable of it and hopefully will show adjustments to the higher league.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at natsnewsnetwork.blogspot.com
by Dave at District Sports Page on Sep 9, 2010 2:57 PM EDT up reply actions
Bernie's bat was really, really bad.
It seems to me we’d be worse than winning teams because that’s where the lack of depth in our lineup probably hurts us.
Morgan had a two out RBI in scoring position FAIL yesterday with that week little dribbler that the pitcher easily fielded.
On a desperate search for Sunshine at Nats Park. In Rizzo and Ramos we trust.
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