Washington Nationals Enter Phase Two, Year Two: The 2011-12 Hot Stove Season.
The Washington Nationals, according to rumors last winter which preceded Cliff Lee's decision to return to Philadelphia, were preparing to throw a lot of years and dollars at the left-hander in an attempt to make a huge splash in the free agent market by adding an outfielder (Jayson Werth) and a front-end starter that would immediately bring credibility and championship experience to the nation's capital's Nats. Werth bought into what the Nationals were selling, telling reporters in his introductory press conference, "The team's a lot better than people think...the last few years they've just been a little young, a little inexperienced. They've made some changes, got some guys in that I think are going to help, I'm on board with that and I think we're going to surprise a lot of people."
D.C. GM Mike Rizzo confirmed the Nats' interest in Lee, telling Sirius/XM MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Duquette and Kevin Kennedy in an interview last November, "I'd be a fool if I didn't like Cliff Lee or want Cliff Lee on our club. He's the prize pitching guy in this year's free agent market. But I'm not going to delude myself to the fact that we have a great chance of landing Cliff Lee."
Asked how he'd sell free agents on coming to Washington, D.C., Rizzo, who was then a month away from shocking the baseball world with the Werth deal, said the Nationals, "... are going to sell one of the most powerful cities in the world here in Washington, D.C. with a great fanbase and a great ballpark and like I said, a good core of young players that we believe are going to be viable championship caliber players in the very, very near future. We're certainly not looking past 2011, but we feel '11 is going to be a building block year for us with a chance to show that we've come from being a viable franchise to a competing franchise."
Lee opted for Philadelphia, explaining in his own introductory press conference that the opportunity to pitch in a rotation that included Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt and Cole Hamels was too good to pass up, but he also hinted that he'd discussed the possibility of signing somewhere with his former teammate on the Phillies. "'Yeah. I don’t know if I can say exactly how that conversation went down here, to be honest with you," Lee told reporters, explaining that he'd spoken to Werth. "'I know once we both got on the free agent market, we talked about trying to get on the same team. Obviously when he signed with the Nationals and I signed here, it didn’t happen. When he found out I was coming here, he wasn’t the happiest person in the world. I’ll put it that way (smiling)."
Zack Greinke too passed on the opportunity to pitch in the nation's capital, explaining in a Washington Post article by Dave Sheinin entitled, "Desire to win now kept Greinke from joining Nationals", after he had nixed a potential deal to the Nats and was instead dealt to Milwaukee, that a chance to win right away had played a big part in his decision. ""The one thing I couldn’t get over was the fact that, here I was trying to get out of Kansas City because the team wasn’t good. Not saying [the Nationals] don’t have a chance, but I was trying to get to a team that was looking really good at the moment. And I believe [the Nationals] will be good eventually."
Lee and Greinke made good decisions. Both made it to the playoffs with their respective teams, though the Phillies were eliminate by the Cardinals in the NLDS and the Brewers fell to the Cards in the championship series. Werth too was right, the Nationals did surprise a lot of people with their 3rd place finish in the NL East and another ten-game improvement from 2009's 59 wins and 2010's 69 to 80 wins in 161 games played in 2011 in spite of Werth's personal struggles at the plate.
Before the 2011 season, Werth's agent, Scott Boras, explained to MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Bowden and Casey Stern that the 7-year/$126 million dollar deal Werth signed in Washington had changed the perception of the team. "We also know that from the standpoint of attracting free agent pitchers," Boras said, "or attracting a closer, or attracting any other free agents, that we have an ownership that is now embedded in the market place as someone who is a destination that they know the ownership is committed."
The big free agent deal wasn't the first move the Nationals had made to become a more attractive destination. They'd started their rebuilding process from the ground up and committed to spending on the draft first before last winter's big splash in the free agent market. The Werth signing signaled the beginning of Phase Two of the Nats' development or "evolution" as the Nat's GM put it a press release last December. When the Nationals agreed to a well-above-slot major league deal with 2011 3rd Round pick Matt Purke, the 21-year-old left-hander said the moves the Nats made the last few years played a role in his decision to join the organization:
"They come highly recommended. I've seen the things they've done the last few years with the prospects they've brought in and the Major League players as well. This organization is going to be very strong, they're building, and they're going to be a serious team to deal with in the years to come. I knew I wanted to be a part of that and hopefully to be a helpful piece in the puzzle."
The true test of whether or not the perception of the franchise has changed comes after the 2011 season officially ends at the conclusion of the World Series, when the Hot Stove season begins and the Nationals attempt to find the outfielder and pitcher they've openly admitted they'd like to add this winter. New York Post writer Joel Sherman wrote this week, in an article entitled, "Sabathia talks with Yankees could push limits", that the big question a pitcher like CC Sabathia faces this winter, "... if any team(s) are willing to go beyond the $92 million left," on his current deal with New York, will be, "... if Sabathia would really leave to play in, say, Washington?"
Will Prince Fielder, Sabathia or C.J. Wilson want to come to the nation's capital? The Nationals, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson, scouted Wilson late this season, and more than one source has identified Washington as a potential destination for the Texas Rangers' 30-year-old left-hander who's the top pitching prize of this year's free agent market, though not quite in the same category as Cliff Lee.
ESPN.com's Buster Olney identified the Nationals as the current favorites to land both Fielder and Wilson in an article in this week's ESPN the Magazine. In his "Daily Scoop" article this afternoon entitled, "Rays' Friedman is latest name to join busy GM merry-go-round", SI.com's Jon Heyman wrote that, "The Nationals seem like one possibility," for Wilson, who could come at a relatively affordable price. "One GM said he envisioned a $75 million, five-year deal." The Nationals have also been mentioned as a potential destination for Nippon Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish, who, Mr. Heyman said one GM told him could, "... cost a team about $100 million between posting price and salary, and another agreed that it will be 'big bucks,'" though, "... yet another said it shouldn't be that much."
The Jayson Werth signing, D.C. GM Mike Rizzo said last winter, "... ushered in Phase Two of our franchise's evolution where we add the key pieces that will help us compete for division titles and championships." "Washington is now a different brand," Scott Boras said, "It is now an acknowledged brand. Their fans know it. Other players know it. And it provides a brand value to the franchise that did not exist prior to Jayson Werth signing." Rizzo said at the end of the season that he thought the Nationals were, "... an outfield bat away and a starting pitcher away from really being a contender in the division." In a few weeks the Nationals and their fans will find out if the players the team targets agree.
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I'm happy with where we are.
We are obviously the best run team in D.C. Redskins have gotten better, but the Nats have been and still are elite in that category. Youth is important, but talented youth is not common and what every team in every sport has a terrible time acquiring. We have that, and plenty of it. We will be competing for a World Series championship for many years, and no one or two players can change that. When you can be that stacked with talent, you’ve done something right for a long time.
Skins rule
The Caps and the Nats are run almost the same
if you look at the Caps, you have Carlson, Alzner, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Green, Semin, and Johanson(sp?) all home grown, The nats have Zimmerman, Zimmermann, Strasburg, Desmond, Espinosa, and Ramos to some extent home grown. The caps also have a fair amount of prospects waiting like Eakin, Kuznetsov, Sjogren, Wey, Galiev, etc, and we have Cole, Ray, Harper, etc. Both the Nats and the Caps are run the opposite way of the Redskins, and I know nothing about the Wizards
MOAR SEVERINO!
Redskins have already started their youth movement.
They just aren’t far yet(Although, in the NFL, you need as much time to complete each “phase”). I don’t want to judge the Caps until they at least prove to be competitive in the playoffs. It’s become predictable that they will collapse in the post season. The Wizards are pure youth, but only a few really talented players: Wall, McGee, Vesely and some too young to be judged.
My rank
1.) Nationals
2.) Redskins
3.) Wizards
NR)Capitols- they can easily become #1-2, though.
All in all, all four teams are currently well run.
Skins rule
They may have collapsed the last two postseasons ...
But they at least were in the post-season, and dominated the regular season based on homegrown players. Until the Nationals finish above .500 (much less make the postseason) I’m going with the Capitals #1.
Hot Stove This Winter
Seems to me an awful lot of the speculating about FAs, trades, Darvish, etc., is just a bit overblown. Remember the Nats won 80 games this year—without much from Stas, RZim, LaR—and with Werth underperforming, as well as the same from Espy, Desmond and a few others. Not to mention playing in the NL East. Normal numbers next year, meaning slightly better all around, as well as a bit of experience from our young guys and a few new faces (already in the system) and we could on the verge of a major improvement and a real push into the playoffs in 2012—the Cards are in the WS right now and they won 90 games (after winning it all a few years ago w/ an 83-win season—06?). Conclusion? Spending tons of money on Darvish, CC, CJW, or any other pitcher is probably not worth it. Spend some of it on Wang,and then let the “kids” do the rest—Stras, JZimm, Lannan, Detwiler (out of options, or trade him), Peacock (is gonna be an ace), perhaps Milone. (And don’t forget who’s on the way in the next wave—Purke, Cole, et al, no real need to spend real money on vets who want 3 or 4 or 5-year deals.) Maybe the Nats ought to pioneer a 6-man rotation, that would stretch out both Stras and JZimm, perhaps all the way to the playoffs next year. And for goodness sake, I hope Rizzo doesn’t listen to all the people who say relievers are a dime a dozen—lock down most games in the 7th/8th/9th, and you can drastically improve your win totals. So figure out what to do to in inning #7 to get to Clip and Save, and we just made major progress.
Now for the hitting…I like RaL and Espy (strikeouts have to go waaay down), and eventually Rendon, that means Espy ends up utility or traded, with Morse and Werth and Ankiel/Nix in the outfield until Harper arrives, meaning again, no need to spend big money on BJ or anyone else. Save the money and use it for RZim, and eventually Stras, Harper, JZimm, Rendon, all the other hotshots we have in the system.
I believe this team is FAR closer than even almost all posters here give it credit for.
They don't have to do it on the cheap
Your recs would have the Nats top off at around 80M. They can easily go higher, and I believe they intend to, and I believe they could become a much better team than they could using merely the guys they currently have in their system.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
You could argue whether or not we should go out spending
But all reports so far have said Rizzo is looking to make another splash this offseason. So I think all this talk is warranted until the big guys come off the market since the Nats are expected to be players
Whats the frequency, Kenneth?
Well, lets slow down a minute
First, its never a bad thing to have spare “aces”. I don’t think anyone Nationals fan would mind seeing a rotation that looks as good as the 2011 Phillies or the 1990’s Braves. I agree that we ought not go over pay for the over-the-hill Wilson and Sabathia on some crazy 7 year deal. I agree that Darvish will be very expensive and unproven. And getting Mark Buerhle for 2 years seems like a waste since we likely won’t be in the hunt next year.
I think that the six-man rotation could work, but you cut into your 25-man roster with that. It is worth noting that studies have shown pitchers throw best with 5 days rest, but that was discarded in favor of 4 days rest (5 man rotation) because the wins lost by the difference between 1 and 6 were greater than the wins gained by the rest of the squad. However, he we aren’t getting a full season out of our number 1 anyway, and we have several young arms to audition.
Finally, I would temper your expectations of Peacock. While his ERA looked good, he was on a super low-BABIP, and didn’t really strike-out anyone (4 SO over 12 IP). Obviously, I hope he turns into an ace, but the data doesn’t currently support that hypothesis.
On offense, the team is still distant. If everything breaks right then they might be much better next year. However, that includes the following IFs
A) Werth returns to career form
B) Morse continues to put up crazy numbers
C) Espinosa plays like he did before the All-Star break all next season.
D) Ramos doesn’t slump.
E) La Roche returns to career form or better
Chances are one or two of these things aren’t going to break our way. Hence we might want:
A killer 1B, LaRoche might come back to form, but he might not. Even if he does, he isn’t going to hit .300/.375/.575. I’m not advocating signing one of the big guys here, but we have room for improvement here.
Second, CF. I think this is actually more important from a long-term standpoint. You don’t want to see Werth, a 33 year old player (next season) that we have signed for the next 6 years, playing CF. I know that lots of folks are upset about Werth’s contract, though he wasn’t terrible (2.5 WAR), he just wasn’t $126 million good (5-6 WAR). However it is in our long-term interest to keep him healthy, and he’ll have a better time of that in RF than CF. Unfortunately, there aren’t really good options for CFs in the FA market, because it is a skill set that doesn’t age well generally- most notably speed. So likely we’ll have to trade here or wait until 2013 free agent class comes up and hope that a good CF doesn’t get extend. I think trade is the better option here my personal picks- Dexter Fowler or JB Shuck.
LaRoche comes back to form?
Come on. LaRoche has been a bottom-third first baseman his entire career, save one year when he cracked the upper half. What we got last year is really not that far from what they should hae expected.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Thoughts
Morse didn’t put up crazy numbers, he put up good MLB hitter numbers (we’re so used to .260 that we think .300 is special). He hit what a decent clean hitter on a decent team should hit. The data on Peacock doesn’t support anything at this point. He’s got a plus fast ball. a curve that’s good enough to worry about and to this point nobody is making good contact, which means he’s missing the sweet spot. I’ll take that over a strikeout pitcher anyday. We don’t need Peacock to be an ace (it would be nice). If the three after Stras/Zimm can maintain a bit over .500, we will be in the hunt. Werth too old for center? How old is Ankiel, aren’t they about the same age. If he’s in shape, he can play center. Whether he’s good enough is the question, not whether he’s too old.

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