Center Field Options for 2012

I thought I'd give a crack at what legitimate options the Nats have at the center field position in 2012. I think the ultimate success or failure of this offseason will rest on whether the Nats find a solid, potentially long term answer at the position. If the Nats want to seriously contend for a playoff spot next year, they either need a very solid stopgap solution, or a long-term answer at the position.

Option #1 - Internal

1) Rick Ankiel - Ankiel got 380 AB in the outfield in 2011 with fairly solid results (+2.1 WAR), but does the front office really consider him an option in 2012?  My sense is no. Although his 2.1 WAR was solid, +1.7 of it came on defense, which seems like more of an anomaly than anything else. From 2007-2010, Ankiel put up a combined +0.7 WAR on defense, so I can't imagine another repeat stellar defensive effort, even though his arm is certainly among the best in the majors. The bigger issue for Ankiel seems to be his vanishing offensive production. His .239, .298, .659 line is just not good enough to be relied on, and he is not getting any younger at 32. I want Ankiel back in 2012, but not as a starter in CF.

2) Roger Bernadina - Bernadina got 309 AB in the outfield in 2011, and put up a respectable +0.8WAR splitting time between center and right field, but I can't imagine anyone in the front office imagines him starting in CF next year. Bernadina might be a solid 4th outfielder, but he just simply hasn't shown enough offensive production to justify being looked at.  His .243 .301 .664 line was fairly close to what he put up last year (.246 .307 .691), but the low OBP and bad BB/K ratio are real red flags here.  Defensively, he might be league average, but also has shown a propensity to take awkward routes in CF. At 27, Bernadina really can't be seen as anything more than a 4th outfielder.

3) Move Jayson Werth to CF, find a Corner Outfielder - This is an intriguing option, but at 32, is Jayson going to be able to make the shift from right to center?  He has been an average to slightly above average RF in his career (+0.4 WAR on defense last year), but center field is obviously a much more demanding position.  I think Rizzo and the front office sees this as a possibility, but probably not an ideal situation.  On the plus side, it would be much easier to acquire a corner outfielder than a center fielder on the free agent market.

Option #2 - Free Agency

1) Coco Crisp - Crisp will be 32 in November, and had one of the worst years of his career last year with the bat, putting up a .264 .314 .693 line (+2.1 WAR). Crisp has never batted for a particularly high average (career .275 hitter), but has been an adept base stealer throughout his career.  Last year was no exception, as he stole 49 bases and only got caught just 9 times. Defensively, Crisp has been an above average center fielder in his career (+5.8 WAR on defense), but his deteriorating range led to a -0.1 WAR in the field in 2011. Even if Crisp's BABIP returns to around .300 next year, and even if he benefits from the comfier confines of Nationals Park, I can't imagine Crisp doing much better than .270 .330 .720 next year --- good enough to be considered an option, but maybe not an ideal option.

2) David DeJesus - Fellow Athletic Dejesus had a down year last year, but definitely fits the bill as a high OBP guy (career .356 OPB).  Dejesus was also one of the most unlucky hitters last year, posting a .274 BABAP. The problem is that I don't think Dejesus is physically able to play the position anymore--- he was used almost exclusively in RF last year, and while he is an above average fielder at that position, center field is a whole other beast for a guy who turns 32 in December.

3) Cody Ross - Ross had a bit of a down year in 2011, posting a .240 .325 .730 line in SF, good enough for a +1.6 WAR. Ross might have a bit unlucky last year (.279 BABIP), but the low average and relatively low OBP are not ideal. He might be a stopgap solution though--- his 14 home runs in 400 AB last year in SF (half of his games were in a massive stadium) are impressive, and he will only be 31 next year. His postseason success is also probably worth a note. I don't think anyone is rushing to sign Ross, but he's probably a backup option. I still think SF will resign him though, as they don't really have an internal option besides him.

4) Nate McLouth - A high OPB guy, but his bat has simply disappeared in the past few years, and can't be considered an option.

5) Carlos Beltran - Still an excellent hitter, but simply not a center fielder anymore at 35 years old. 

Option #3 - Players who might not have their options picked up (we will know exactly who is on this list in about a week)

1) Grady Sizemore - Sizemore is an interesting possibility, and I do think the Indians will decline his $9 million option, but the major injuries in the past few years are seriously problematic. Given two major knee surgeries, and now an additional arthroscopic surgery, can anyone really rely on Sizemore to stay healthy for a whole year?  Moreover, he has posted -UZR ratings in center field the past three years--- is his body even able to handle the responsibilities of CF anymore? The power is clearly still in his bat (.422 SLG in limited AB last year), but the BB/K ration collapsed last year, which is another red flag. You would love to be the benefactor of a Sizemore resurgence, but I just don't think the Nats are the team that is going to give him that chance. Maybe the Nats of 2007 or 2008 would have, but not the Nats of 2012.

2) Angel Pagan - This name has been talked about some on the boards. The Mets would have to decline his option, which I don't think they'll do, since they don't have a real internal alternative to Pagan in their organization. Some have speculated that the Mets would move Bay to CF, but this doesn't make a ton of sense to me. If Pagan does hit the market, he would be an interesting stopgap option. Pagan put up a meager +0.2 WAR last year, but most of that came from an inexplicable defensive performance (-1.7 WAR on defense, well below career averages). Moreover, in 2009-2010, Pagan averaged a .300 .345 .800 line, which I'm sure the Nats would be thrilled with. He would also surely benefit from leaving CitiField. I'm sure the Nats will be interested if Pagan hits the market, but probably only as a 1 or 2 year flyer. At 30 years of age, Pagan probably has another year or two of average to above average production in him.

3) Marlon Byrd - Oh, how the Nats would have loved to keep Byrd between 2007-2010, when he managed to be a very above average center fielder (~+10 WAR during those four years). At 34, however, and coming off one of the worst years of his career, Byrd is not really a legitimate option for 2012.

Option #4 - Trades!

Mike Rizzo has explored this route several times over the past year. Is this the year the Nats finally find a solution to the CF problem through trades? None of the internal or free agent options are superb, so I'm sure the front office will explore a number of trade options over the offseason. Here are a few names that I think make sense from the Nats standpoint.

#1) B.J. Upton - He becomes a free agent after next year, and he is clearly an above average center fielder both with the bat and the glove (3.8 WAR last year).  Upton has also been remarkably consistent over the last several years. The Rays must be looking to move him since he becomes an expensive free agent after next year, and because they have a fantastic internal replacement in Desmond Jennings waiting to move to center field.  Upton will make about $10 million next year through arbitration, so he won't be cheap, but he is certainly a stopgap option. Upton is also just 27, so he should put up good numbers next year wherever he plays. That said, Upton is only a 1 year solution, so how much should we be willing to pay for a rent-a-player? Also, the Rays always seem to come out ahead on trades--- does Rizzo really want to test history?

#2) Denard Span - Span nearly became a Nat at the free agent deadline, and I'm sure Rizzo is pleased he didn't pull the trigger on that trade, as Span suffered a concussion that rendered him useless for the remainder of the year. It has been hard to gather information on Span's condition now, but assuming he returns to full health next year, he once again becomes a serious trade possibility.  Span is under team control through 2015, and his contract is not particularly expensive (5years/16.5mil). He also fits the bill as a high OBP guy, having put up a .361 OBP in his career. The twins also appear willing to move Span, as they have defensive whiz Ben Revere waiting in the ranks. Span will be 28 when the season starts, so he should be relied on to put up good numbers for a number of years, assuming he is healthy. If the Twins expect to get Drew Storen or some package of Desmond, Lannan, and prospects back in return, however, the price may be too high for the Nats. 

#3) Peter Bourjos - Bourjos quietly put up a fantastic +5.0 WAR last year with steller defense and  unexpected offensive production (.271 .327 .765). The Angels also have a very crowded outfield situation, with Mike Trout waiting to take over (presumably) center field soon, and Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, and Torii Hunter already entrenched.  But how much would Bourjos cost? He is just 24 years old and coming off a great year --- it would probably cost a number of prospects and major league contributors just to get him. Given that Bourjos may be overvalued now (he was also quite lucky last year, having posted a .338 BABIP), I think Rizzo looks elsewhere. 

#4) Melky Cabrera or Lorenzo Cain (Royals) - The Royals have a logjam at center field right now. Melky Cabrera is under contract for another year, but they also have 25 year old prospect Lorenzo Cain wasting away in AAA. Cain has put up good, albeit not fantastic numbers at AAA the past two years, and is the better defensive player. Cabrera put up career numbers in 2011 with the bat (.305 .339 .809), good for a +4.8 WAR with the bat. The problem for Cabrera is that he has poor range in center field, and he posted a very poor -1.9 WAR in the field. Looking at advanced stats, Cabrera also got lucky last year (.332 BABIP), so he shouldn't be expected to replicate his 2011 performance in 2012. The Royals are certainly shopping one of these players (probably Cabrera), but I'm not sure the Nats want to overpay for one year of Cabrera, or take a gamble on unproven Lorenzo Cain.

#5) Bryan Petersen (Marlins) - Peterson was all but forgotten after a poor 2010 campaign in which he posted mediocre numbers at the AAA level. Last year was a different story --- Petersen destroyed AAA pitching during the first half of the year and proceeded to perform fairly well in a short major league stint (.265 .357 .744, +1.7 WAR). Rizzo must love the high OBP, which has been a trademark of his minor league resume. Defensively, Petersen is considered an average fielder, and other than making one particularly egregious error against the Nats, he performed fine in center field last year. The Marlins might be willing to move Peteren, since they could easily move Bonafacio to center field (arguably his more natural position) and let mega-prospect Matt Dominguez start the year at 3B. At 25, and under team control for several years, Petersen should be kept on your offseason radar. 

Other notes--- The market for center fielders next year appears much stronger, so it is possible that Rizzo looks for a stopgap solution and tries to get a longer term solution next year. Free Agent Center Fielders next year include Shane Victorino, Matt Kemp, Michael Bourn, and Curtis Granderson among others.