Washington Nationals' Henry Rodriguez's Control Still An Issue, But Stuff Remains Filthy.
Washington Nationals' reliever Henry Rodriguez threw 35.2 innings without allowing a home run. In Rodriguez's 31st appearance of the year, Florida Marlins' catcher John Buck finally got hold of a pitch that left the park. It was the only home run the 24-year-old reliever allowed in 2011. Tyler Clippard, arguably the MVP of the Nats' bullpen, allowed 11 HR's in 88.1 IP. Drew Storen, Nationals' closer, surrendered eight HR's in 75.1 IP.
Henry Rodriguez allowed just that one home run in 65.2 IP. By the time the season ended, the one-time A's prospect who'd moved from starting to the pen in Oakland's organization before he was acquired to be part of the back end of the Nats' bullpen, was being referred to as a backup closer, called upon to close games out when Storen was unavailable.
While Rodriguez's 6.17 BB/9 were the second highest BB/9 amongst qualified NL relievers, behind only Aroldis Chapman (7.38 BB/9), the Nats' right-hander's 1.8% HR/FB% was the second-lowest in the National League behind only the Giants' left-hander Javier Lopez, who didn't allow a single HR's in 53.0 IP.
Rodriguez threw the 10th highest pitch total amongst relievers in 2011, with 1,236 pitches in 65.2 IP, threw the fourth-highest total of pitches outside the zone, but when he got batters to chase, Rodriguez had the fourth-lowest contact rate on pitches outside the zone (50.2%, behind only LA's Kenley Jansen 47.0%, and the Braves' duo of Jonny Venters 43.9% and Craig Kimbrel 43.8%).
The 24-year-old right-hander had the 11th highest swinging strike % in the National League, behind the likes of the Rockies' Rafael Betancourt and Huston Street, the Phillies' Antonio Bastardo and Ryan Madson, the Braves' Kimbrel and Venters, Rodriguez's teammate Tyler Clippard and the Dodgers' Jansen.
When Nats' Skipper Davey Johnson finally settled on a role for the former Oakland A's prospect acquired last winter in the deal that sent Josh Willingham to the west coast, Rodriguez responded with a strong month of September in which he allowed just eight hits, four walks and three runs in 13 games and 12.1 IP over which he K'd 14 and recorded his first two major league saves.
"I think he's a little more comfortable and staying within himself, throwing strikes," Davey Johnson told reporters as the season wound down. "His command issues at times, I think I kind of got him a little out of whack trying to get him to pitch more than one inning because he fancies himself more of a one inning guy and he had a little trouble sometimes in that second inning, or even one time I tried to get him to go three innings, but I think he's maturing into either a set-up guy or [possible]* closer down the line, so I'm pleased at how he's progressing."
Rodriguez's last two outings of 2011 left a lasting impression as he struck out the side in an 11-pitch frame against the Atlanta Braves, setting SS Jack Wilson down for the third out with consecutive 100, 101, 101 mph fastballs followed by an 88mph 1-2 slider for a called strike three in a 1-2-3 seventh that also saw backup Braves' backstop David Ross try to bunt with two strikes when he realized he couldn't hit Rodriguez's fastball. The impressive outing that night took place after six strong by Ross Detwiler. Rodriguez then handed the ball to Tyler Clippard for the eighth and Drew Storen for the ninth. Storen closed out the Nats' 78th win of the season. With Storen unavailable in the first game of three against Florida one night later, Rodriguez was called upon to close out win no. 79, recording his second career save in his last outing of the year.
The Nationals scouted Rodriguez extensively before making the trade with the A's (that also brought OF Corey Brown in return), with D.C. GM Mike Rizzo telling MLB Network Radio's Power Alley hosts Kevin Kennedy and Mike Ferrin in a late February appearance on the show that they felt he was finally figuring it out:
"Everybody saw the arm, I like the compact body. He's a big physical strong guy, stocky strong, that had two wipeout pitches. He's got a plus plus fastball and at times a wipeout unhittable slider. The thing with Henry was he needed to control the strike zone a little bit better...
"...our scouts have told me that this guy was starting to figure it out as a reliever, because...he'd been transferred from starting to relieving a year and a half ago, that transformation takes a little bit of an adjustment period, but this guy's stuff was always there, but his feel for pitching got better and better and better each time we saw him."
One year later the ability to "control the strike zone" is still the same concern with Rodriguez. When he's on he's well-nigh unhittable. When he's off he's wild and capable of walking batters at an alarming rate. The right-hander was out of options when he was acquired so he had to stay on the major league roster. Rodriguez got off to a late start after visa and neck issues, but managed to remain in the majors all year, and may have earned an important role in the 2012 Nats' bullpen.
(ed. note - " * = Mr. Johnson said either possible or 'partial' closer, the audio was mixed with stadium music and the sound of the field being prepared.")
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To absolutely noone
"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011
Dang...hit the wrong key...
It will come as a surprise to no one that I BELIEVE IN HENRY…and look forward to seeing him relieve and close next year and beyond.
He’s definitely NOT a long man…4 outs max, not 3 innings. And he shouldn’t be used 4 out of 5 nights like Davey did that one time with predictably bad results. That’s when the wildness really reared its ugly head.
I think a full ST and more side sessions with McCatty will help Rodriguez control his “stuff” a LOT better so he will be a reliable bullpen arm..with big HEET! (Though he probably needs to take a little off to add to his control.)
Yay, Henry!
"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011
yes
when managed well, i think he can become very successful. for the near future, though, the hook needs to be at the ready since its been clear pretty quick in his appearances when he doesn’t have “it”
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man
by TJL on Oct 3, 2011 7:39 PM EDT up reply actions
It does seem like, at this point, there's a limit to how often he can go.
Hopefully he’ll continue to do well within those limits, and the manager won’t push them too often.
I am also excited to see what Henry Rodriguez can put together in 2012
I just finished going through the play by play of every game this season (to see who slatened whom, for a fanpost), and I was impressed by many of the outings he had. Also, Livo pitched great for much of the year, Lannan had a bunch of amazing starts, and it’s been forever since Zimmermann pitched.
My fanpost will look at whose ERA got hurt by being slatened, and I will try fix everybody’s ERA to make up for it. I have some stats in hand, haven’t started writing yet. (For the record, Henry for one is looking good.)
In the same vein as drivers on the Beltway slowing down to see the disabled car on the shoulder
I can’t wait to read the fanpost. Among other things, it will be interesting to see if it was as bad as we all think, and how many times HWMNBN was himself slatened.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Unfortunately, I didn’t think to start tracking how many times pitchers slatened and were slatened until I was a third way through the season, but rest assured that his adjusted ERA is not pretty.
Here's how I've always thought it should be calculated:
When a pitcher leaves, he’s responsible for ALL the runs he let in, plus for each runner left on, another
b/4 (3 – o)/3
runs, where b is the number of the base, and o is the number of outs, MINUS that total for the runners on when he enters the game. Thus, if a pitcher leaves with runners on the corners and one out, he would be charged with an additional (1/4 (3-1)/3 ) + (3/4 (3-1)/3) = 2/3 of a run. The reliever who replaces him gets a 2/3 credit for those runners, so if he strands them and gives nothing else, he would have an adjusted run total of – 2/3. If he lets them both in though, he’s charged for them, meaning his adjusted run total would be 4/3. This way the adjusted runs given up adds to the actual runs given up, but Slatening someone gets suitably charged.
Anyway, that’s how I would do it, and while it’s theoretically possible to actually do this calculation using BBRs game-by-game summaries, I haven’t had the time to write the parsing script required. Soooo, we’re still at the "good idea’ stage. Note that I’m using natural weights for the bases (1/4) and for the outs (1/3), but there’s probably better weights out there. Simplicity is my goal here.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
I kept it even more simple, by ignoring outs.
So in your example, the split would be 50/50 rather than 60/40 via your method.
Two-thirds / One third, actually (not 60/40).
While any approach that dings a pitcher for leaving runners on, but doesn’t completely charge the pitcher for the runners that his relievers allow in, would be a step forward. I do think, though, that in the end, outs should be accounted for: leaving a runner on first with nobody out is obviously a much more grievous offense than leaving a runner on first with two outs.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
you’re right.. I reread your logic and it was much more complicated than the first time :)
I played with situational stats for a while while brainstorming for this fanpost, but realized I didn’t have the expertise to come up with the perfect formula, even if I was willing to pour all the time in the world into it. I’ll make sure to label my attempt as beta.
Wild Pitches
He had 14 wild pitches while facing 295 batters in 65.2 innings. Hope he continues to improve. Thought that stat should included.
wild pitches caveat
Only matters if runner(s) on base, with noone on it just makes a batter a little m.o.a.r. intimidated! So he just needs to not overthrow w/runners on base – easy-peasy ; )
Henry on the bump always ramps up the excitement in the crowd – glad DJ seems to have figured out not to overuse the MPHRod HEET
by FreddieBallgame on Oct 3, 2011 10:09 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Nope, it's a Ryne Duren Special
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Oops, Thanks - wow baseball relapse already?
Or never read the rulebook? Both I say but also a dumb post, maybe I should think first? I shoulda known that was wrong! Anyway I’m right aboot Henry bringing the excitement! Certain he’ll be working on his control this winter.
by FreddieBallgame on Oct 4, 2011 10:14 AM EDT via mobile up reply actions
Well, that's the trouble
He’s been “working on his control” forever, and not really getting any better at it.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Precisely.
His wildness is dangerous. Those 14 WPs LED THE LEAGUE; the next-most was Kuroda with 12, and he threw more than three times as many innings. Fortunately, he managed to hit only 2 batters, but I could easily see him putting a player out of commission with his wild heat.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
My thinking is that it won't be long before the league figures him out
Just stand there and let him walk you. Swinging isn’t going to help unless there’s a couple of strikes. To this point, he’s been fortunate enough to have batters get themselves out by swinging at junk way outside the zone, but it’s unclear how long that will last.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Dominant Game Changer
Henry’s last home appearance against the Braves was one of the most dominant short relief performances I’ve ever seen. Consistent 100mph heaters for strikes and an unhittable breaking ball. He’s not just another reliever. When Henry comes into the game, it is different for everybody in the stadium, but mostly its different for the opposition. He’s only 24. So glad we have him and can’t wait until he get a full spring training and another season started in the Nats pen. If we are to compete, Henry is going to be a big part of it.
I do hope they help him make sure he gets his visa on time this year so he can start the season hot.
Especially since (thanks to Oakland), he's out of options
so if Henry’s control gets worse/batters start to figure him out, he’ll have to figure it out at the ML level or be subject to waivers…
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
If his control doesn't get better, he was still as good as Coffey this year.
3rd in value in the bullpen.
Rodriguez
He can be wild but really improved at the end maybe he is learning.
HRod's September
It was better than other months, but not amazing or anything like that. He had 13 appearances, all one inning or less, and 8 of them were “clean” outings (no hits or walks allowed). Two were dominant (3 Ks, nothing else), two were pretty bad (three or more baserunners allowed). He allowed 3 earned runs in 12 2/3 IP, for a 2.13 ERA, but using the formula I discuss above, he should be charged (approximately) an additional run for leaving one of the games with the bases loaded and two out, and credited a sixth of a run for stranding a runner on first who was there when he entered with one out, for an “adjusted ERA” of 2.73. Like I said, not bad, not fantastic.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
In case anyone's checking my work
It was actually 12 1/3 IP, for an ERA of 2.19 and an “adjusted ERA” of 2.80.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Wait, you’re charging him for baserunners that never scored? How do baserunners who don’t score have anything to do with ERA?
ERA's for a pen with slaten in it are meaningless
WHIP is much more useful, WE even better
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man
Best Of The Network (from SBN's "Baseball Nation" homepage...)
Who is Henry Rodriguez?
Relief pitcher Henry Rodriguez of the Washington Nationals throws a pitch during a game against the Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on September 21, 2011 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. The Nationals won 7-5. (Photo by Hunter Martin/Getty Images)
No, he’s not the candy-bar guy. This Henry Rodriguez throws a hundred miles an hour, and Federal Baseball is happy to make the introduction.
"LESS LOON...!!!" by MissB on Sep 12, 2011
"...and the Nats win four in a row in NY." by Patrick Reddington on Sep 15, 2011

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