Did the Nationals win the Matt Capps deal?

they came out tied with 2.5 WAR each.

However, I think Ramos will end up being more valuable in the long term, especially when you consider team control. Relievers are volatile, corner sluggers are commonplace, and both are heading for arbitration/free agency much sooner than Wilson.

I don’t think I’ve really heard anyone argue that the Twins came out ahead in the deal, but they got what they were after…. a short-term solution to fill their closer’s role while they made their playoff push in 2010. An argument for the Twins could be this……….

At the time of the trade, the Twins had recently signed former AL MVP and three-time batting champ Joe Mauer to handle their catching duties for a long time. It was doubtful that they thought that Ramos (who was failing to build on a breakout 2009 campaign in AAA himself last season) was ever going to be more than a major league backup for their organization who could possibly take over the starting role if the unthinkable (oops) happened and Mauer needed replacing behind the plate. While I’m sure that some of the medical issues Mauer has had in his career might have been red flags, it’s hard to imagine that they thought his ability to handle being the everyday catcher would deteriorate as quickly as it (seemingly) has. From their perspective, Ramos was a solid catching prospect who they thought might never repeat the success he had in 2009. From their angle, they wanted to sell him high, and hadn’t had much luck in doing so that season (he was reported in several rumors for higher profile players than Capps).

While Jon Rauch had actually performed quite well in the closer’s role for the Twins in 2010 prior to the Capps-Ramos trade, Capps did give the team enough depth in the bullpen so that they could pretty much put the game on lockdown if they had a lead after the seventh inning with the two of them combined. Neither was a truly dominant closer, but both had effective 2010 seasons. It’s important to note that the Twins tied for the division crown, won (at home) the AL Central in Game 163, and hosted one playoff game. While they were ousted in the first round, that’s two extra (high revenue…. sellouts, or at least close to sellouts) home games they got out of Capps.

That (well… preferably more than that. I’m sure a deep playoff run/World Series title would have been the best case scenario) is what the Twins were after in making the deal, and it helped them to achieve it (to some degree). Capps was very strong down the stretch for Minnesota in 2010, and given that they needed a one-game playoff to win the AL Central, it shouldn’t be that difficult to argue that they might have missed the playoffs (and those two extra home games’ worth of revenue) had they not made the deal.

They failed miserably when they avoided arbitration by signing Capps for $7.15 million this past season, though….. While he was coming off of a nice season and it was his final season of arbitration, I find it hard to think that he would have been awarded more than $6 million (don’t know what the figures that would have been submitted were, but even that seems a bit egregious) had they just gone through with arbitration.

Of course…..

- Capps pretty much imploded in 2011 (-0.4 fWAR)
- Ramos had a terrific rookie season (outstanding defensively, and not so bad at the dish either… 3.1 fWAR)
- Mauer’s leg issues became enough of an issue so that he only started 47 games as a catcher (16 at 1b, 1 in the OF, spent some time as a DH)

I loved the deal at the time. Hindsight is 20/20. I’m not sure love is a strong enough word for how I feel about the deal now. The Nats made out like bandits.