The Fall Of The House Of Philly

From CNNSI.com:

09:47 AM ET 10.08 | This was a Phillies team built to win now. Except they didn't. And what lies ahead is a future that's uncertain at best. Ryan Howard had to be helped off the field after possibly suffering a torn left Achilles tendon while grounding out to second for the final out of the game. He collapsed in pain and was still writhing in pain as the CardinalsRyan Madson, Raul Ibanez and Lidge all may have played their last games in a Phillies uniform. Placido Polanco will have surgery to repair a sports hernia and will also be 36 when spring training convenes at the Carpenter Complex next February. Oswalt and the Phillies have a mutual option that would cost the team $16 million to pick up. Chase Utley, Carlos Ruiz, Shane Victorino will all be a year older. Hamels is a year away from free agency. ran on the field to celebrate. Jimmy Rollins,

Wow.  I don't think I could have put it more succinctly or more damaging than that.

We could be on the brink of a seismic shift in the National League after this year, and none of that is more apparent than in the fall of the Philadelphia Phillies - who have made two world series and three NLCS since 2008, all the while owning the division.  The time could not be more ripe for the Washington Nationals to finally make their breakthrough.  Lets look at the division:

• New York Mets:  Ownership hell right now, the Mets are paying the price for big trades and big spending that have led to basically David Wright and a depleted roster of barely-major leaguers, and a pitching staff of little regard.  The Wilpons hold on the team is tenuous.  The only positive they have is Sandy Alderson, who I find to be an excellent baseball executive.  Oh, and they are about to lose Jose Reyes.
  
• Miami Marlins:  They are going through a wholesale re-branding of their identity with a new name, logo, and manager in Ozzie Guillen.  There is good talent here, but its young and raw.
• Atlanta Braves:  One has to wonder who their epic collapse will affect them.  Will Chipper Jones be back?  Dan Uggla was a bigger bust for them than Jayson Werth was for us.  They seem to be losing faith in Jason Heyward.  But there is a lot here still - I just wonder what that collapse will do to them.
• Philadelphia Phillies:  Like the above quote, we could be seeing Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Madsen, Raul Ibanez, and Brad Lidge all play their last game in Philly.  Cole Hamels has one year left to free agency, Roy Oswalt maybe gone because of how much he will cost.  And who knows about manager Charlie Manuel.  If their was a "Dream Team" in this city, it was the Phillies and they got beat.

Now, on to our Washington Nationals.  No team in this division right now is better position to bounce on this Phillies fall.  Washington has built a core of good players built form within:  Zimmerman, Desmond, Espinoza, Strasburg, Detwiler, Zimmermann, Storen.  Combined that with smart trades for guys like Morse, Clippard, and Ramos, and you have a tremendous core.  The Nats also have an incredibly deep farm system led by, of course, Bryce Harper but also includes Chris Morero, Derek Norris, and Sammy Solis among many others.  I would try and keep vets like Rick Ankiel and Laynce Nix around too. 

But what Washington and Mike Rizzo need to do is not overract.  The core is there, like I said.  Many of us have been tantalized by the rumors that Prince Fielder might be open to DC . . . but I wouldn't do it.  We have Adam LaRoche coming back finally and fully healthy and when you add him to Michael Morse's emergence, you have enough power with sacrificing defense.  I honestly think Fielder will end up in Los Angeles.  There is also the issues with Ian Desmond, who will be at a career crossroads.  This will be his third year as a starter and he's not a classic lead-off hitter.  People talk BJ Upton but he might cost too much.  Personally, I would think someone like Coco Crisp would be perfect because he's been on winning teams, his average was a bit down in Oakland but he stole 49 bases.  He's only 31, he's a tremendous center fielder and a classic lead-off hitter.  He's a winner, and we need more of that around here.  So we could have a line-up like this:

• CF: Crisp
• SS:  Desmond
• 3B:  Zimmerman
• RF: Morse
• LF: Werth
• 1B:  LaRoche
• 2B:  Espinoza
• C:  Ramos

I'll take that!

Now, to pitching.  Again, like the offense, the core is there they just need to be allowed to grow and to be given some time to mature.  Strasburg, Detwiler, and Zimmermann are your core here.  Strasburg will be on a pitch count, so I expect that it will be Jordan Zimmermann that will become the workhorse next season.  But a difficult choice for fans has to be made here . . . John Lannan.  He had a better year and is a gritty guy, but he's also an under .500 career pitcher who's 3.78 ERA this year was the best of his career.  Not exactly dominating stuff.  I would part ways and do what can be done to resign Chein-Ming Wang, who the Nats worked so much to get healthy and he started to show his '09 Yankees form.  And clearly they will be in the market for another starter . . . namely CJ Wilson.  So again, of fantasy GM Me had my way, here is how the staff looks:

• Jordan Zimmermann
• CJ Wilson
• Stephen Strasburg
• Chein-Ming Wang
• Jordan Zimmerman.

The bullpen was a strength this year and as long as Storen and Clippard are dialed in, they will be fine.  But they could get warned down if the starters don't do more here to stay in games.

If Rizzo and Co play it cool this offseason, avoid the splashy signing in exchange for the smart one, we could see the balance of power in the NL East head down I-95.