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2011: The Year Of The Washington Nationals' Core.

Asked for the takeaway from the 2011 season last Wednesday in an interview on MLB Network Radio, D.C. GM Mike Rizzo, before this past week's kidnapping ordeal, pointed to the continued development of the Washington Nationals' young core, including 24-year-old catcher Wilson Ramos, as one of the team's main accomplishments.

"The biggest postitive in my mind," Rizzo said, "was the way our young core players stepped up and really performed admirably. Ramos became what we thought Ramos was going to be. It looks like he's going to be a solid everyday catcher behind the plate for a long time for us. You have Danny Espinosa. Ian Desmond we thought took a great step forward. The emergence of Michael Morse was an important piece for us and we feel that with a healthy Ryan Zimmerman all season and a healthy Adam LaRoche at first base we feel that we've got a good core group of position players. We feel we're fairly set at a lot of spots this year. We feel that our rotation is pretty well filled-up and our bullpen is young, fairly inexpensive and very talented."

Star-divide

"It's just a tribute to the whole organization to be at this point," Davey Johnson said late this season as the Nationals surged with a 17-10 September to finish a game under .500 at 80-81 after they'd started the month eight games under at 63-71. "We lost two key veterans, one most of the year and the other about a half of the year and young guys that were trying to establish carried the bulk of the load. So, I mean, I tip my hat to everyone in the organization from scouts all the way down and the job they've done getting to this point, it's outstanding." 

"Having Zimmerman [out] and LaRoche out all year long," Davey Johnson told reporters at another point late this season, "It was tough on some of the other rookies. But now that everybody's coming back together, I think it's easier for everyone in the lineup to not feel like it's all on them." Danny Espinosa was arguably the MVP of the first-half of 2011 for Washington, but struggled down the stretch in his first pro season. When the team took off in September, the second baseman caught fire too, recovering from a .200/.298/.310 July and a .233/.307/.359 August with a .274/.371/.429 line in the final month of the year, though the power he'd shown early this season wasn't quite there and the strikeouts climbed. 

Wilson Ramos had a .288/.342/.471 second-half with 10 doubles and seven home runs in 47 games and 187 plate appearances, ending the year with a .358/.434/.582 stretch in September during which he hit six doubles and three home runs in 19 games and 76 plate appearances. The one big difference for Ian Desmond this season was his ability to cut down on the throwing errors he committed, down from 13 in 2010 to four in 2011. Otherwise he proved to be just about exactly the same player as he's been for the first two seasons in Washington.

The .253/.298/.358 line Desmond put up this season is only slightly off the .261/.303/.374 line he's averaged in his first two full-seasons, and he only got close to his career averages because of a .295/.329/.424 stretch in August/September after a .228/.279/.317 March through July. He hit 10 HR's in 2010, 8 this past season, 27 doubles in each of his first two years. Is the 26-year-old shortstop the player he showed he was capable of being at the major league level in '09 and the end of the 2011 season or the player he's been so far over the course of his major league career?

The biggest surprise of all, of course, was the breakout season by Michael Morse. The 29-going-on-30-year-old former White Sox and Mariners' prospect rescued from Seattle by a June '09 trade for Ryan Langerhans, rewarded the Nationals' faith with a 36 double, 31 HR, 95 RBI, .303/.360/.550 season in which helped lead Washington's offense. Davey Johnson is one of the people in the organization along with Mike Rizzo who always believed in Morse. "He's one of the first guys that I kind of warmed up to two years ago," Johnson said, "I remember, he probably doesn't remember, but I remember talking hitting to him out in the hallways." 

"He told me he was a shortstop," Johnson joked, "And I said, 'Bigger than any shortstop I ever saw.' But he went out and had a great year. When we made the shift from left field to first base and back to left field it didn't bother him a bit. He's been fun to watch." Morse, however, started and ended the season with slumps, posting a .211/.253/.268 slash in March and April and a .237/.297/.505 slash over the last month of the season. From May through August, in time spent predominantly at first, Morse had a .338/.397/.617 line.

Morse is expected to be back in left field when the 2012 season starts, provided that Adam LaRoche makes a full recovery from surgery to repair a torn labrum and damage to his rotator cuff. Can LaRoche come back at 100%? Is the center fielder the Nats are searching for along with the addition of the 32-year-old LaRoche's .267/.337/.478 career slash, a full season season of Ryan Zimmerman and a has-to-be-better-(right?) Jayson Werth enough to allow the Nationals to compete in the NL East? Danny Espinosa led all Nationals in 2011 at +3.5 WAR, Morse was second at +3.4, Ramos, +3.1 and Ryan Zimmerman followed, with Zim at +2.5 tied with Jayson Werth though they were down from +7.2 and +5.3, respectively, in the previous season, with Ian Desmond at +1.4 up from +1.3 and Adam LaRoche an inconsequential -0.2 after consecutive seasons of +1.5, +2.5  and  +1.2 from 2008 through 2010. 

The Nationals are also reportedly in the market for a starter to add to their young and thus-far-relatively-unproven rotation that will likely include Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang and either a veteran arm or one of Ross Detwiler, Tom Milone or Brad Peacock if no one else is acquired or brought back to vie for time in the starting rotation. Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Henry Rodriguez, and Sean Burnett will be back in the bullpen. The Nats' GM is confident that the team is closer than most people think. When it comes to adding to the mix, Rizzo told the MLB Network Radio hosts last week, "We're going to be careful with what we do. We aren't going to make any knee-jerk reactions. All the moves we make, we're going to stick to our plan. But we feel the plan could come to fruition sooner than expected." 

"We feel, I think for the first time since I've been around," Rizzo said, echoing sentiments expressed by Jayson Werth at the end of the season, "That every day we walk in that clubhouse we think that we're going to win the game. We feel that we can win the game and there's an expectation of winning the game when we leave the clubhouse and hit that field." How high are their sights set? Davey Johnson put it simply in a recent interview with the D.C. press corps. "A pennant," the Nats' skipper said, "Winning the pennant. Winning the division. Winning the National League. I couldn't have said that last Spring. I didn't think the talent was ready, but after being there and seeing the progress that some of the young players made, I think we definitely can contend and I would be sorely disappointed if we didn't do just that."

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I really think the Nationals could be competitive this year. If not in 2012, then in 2013.

I write a Giants blog. I also write for MLB Daily Dish and Beyond the Box Score

by Julian Levine on Nov 13, 2011 11:16 PM EST reply actions  

Rizzo claims the Nats aren't after Fielder...

but my goodness, that’s a hell of a lineup in 2013 if you add my good friend Bryce Harper. People don’t realize that the Lerners are the richest owners in baseball and if the Nats want to be able to keep up with the Braves and newly reborn Marlins over the next 5 years or so (the Phillies are doomed in 3 years, maybe sooner), then they would be doing themselves a big favor picking up Fielder. Even getting a solid CF and maybe a Buehrle type could really transition them into a contender.

by McBomination on Nov 14, 2011 12:58 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

I never liked Fielder

A man that big is going to eventually get himself hurt because of the weight.

by Alex35332 on Nov 14, 2011 7:13 AM EST up reply actions  

He hasn't yet though.

He’s been remarkably durable, AAMOF.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 9:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure I have concerns

But not nearly as much as many others around here do. Look, everyone gets hurt. Adam LaRoche got hurt and it cost him nearly an entire season (to the Nats benefit). LaRoche is a fit man playing in a low-stress position, but it happened anyway. Ryan Zimmerman has been nagged by various injuries the last couple of seasons. He’s fit, and young to boot.

To hear some people here talk about it, Fielder getting injured is a fait accompli, it’s just a matter of when. He may be slightly/somewhat more susceptible to injury, but I think the durability and production he’s shown in the past makes signing him well worth that risk.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Keep who on 1st?

“Morse, however, started and ended the season with slumps, posting a .211/.253/.268 slash in March and April and a .237/.297/.505 slash over the last month of the season. From May through August, in time spent predominantly at first, Morse had a .338/.397/.617 line.”

Its things like that that make me wonder why we would WANT to move Morse back to the outfield. Clear to me anyway that he should stay at first base and we should package LaRoche and maybe some other pitching for outfield help or some other need.

Beast mode only works infield, maybe he gets tired out from playing in the field, maybe his head is more in the game when he is at first base? I can’t say for sure. But if we are looking at a difference of .100+ in his batting average then I think he is a first baseman, weather we like it or not.

by Alex35332 on Nov 14, 2011 7:10 AM EST reply actions  

I'm with you...

Morse is much better at First and he played the position preally, really well! Put him at First, trade or bench LaRouche and put an end to this Fielder nonsense.

by Dan Shields on Nov 14, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

Yup

Mike started and ended the season in a slump, and at first. Crissake, it ain’t long division.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Strike "at first" insert "in left"

My bad.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

You do understand that correlation does not imply causation, right?

I personally am completely unconvinced that there’s a connection between the position he plays and his ability to hit the ball.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 12:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Oops ...

forgot the sarcasm font

by d_c_guy on Nov 14, 2011 12:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I may be guilty of poking bears in that paragraph...

Davey’s said repeatedly that he doesn’t think playing one position or another affected Morse’s production.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 14, 2011 1:01 PM EST up reply actions  

What else would he say, Patrick...?

“Yeah, it really screwed things up, moving Mike around like that – but y’know, I’m gonna do it anyway.” Right.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 8:17 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

You make a simplistic inference, and a straw-man argument (is there a font for that?)

No such general and automatic relationship between random variables “A” and “B” intended or implied by your humble servant. On the contrary, the variables are clearly confined to a discussion of 2011 Mike Morse in left, versus Mike Morse at 1B. I believe the evidence is clear, and the conclusion is justified. Relevant comments from those who respectfully disagree are always more than welcome.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

Mase, that's a reach

Sure, Khan played third for the Cubs, but Kant? Never heard of him.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 15, 2011 11:46 PM EST up reply actions  

Morse's OPS in the 28 games he played in LF after Marrero was brought up:

.891.

His OPS in the previous 16 games while still at first:
.780.

Perhaps he actually BENEFITED from the move to the OF? (Of course not.)

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

Fielder can hit the ball pretty far.....

Thats about it, A man with that much weight can’t hold up to the physical demands of the game for not a couple more years.

by RossingtonCollins on Nov 14, 2011 8:40 AM EST reply actions  

Where's the proof?

He’s played in 157+ games each year for six years running now.

This seems to be the same argument as the guy who says that Michael Morse will begin to fail once he’s been “exposed”. It’s going to happen. Any day now…

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 9:57 AM EST up reply actions  

No real concrete proof..

But in your opinion do you really believe that he won’t be a liability at 1st in a few years… Seriously the guy is huge and he can barely move around as it is. I do, however, like his production at the plate, he might be worth a lot of money but I wouldn’t take the risk to be honest.

by RossingtonCollins on Nov 15, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions  

Oh, and by the way:

He had a slash line of .299/.415/.566 this year. He hits the ball hard, yes, but he also hits the ball consistently and he has a great batting eye.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 10:03 AM EST up reply actions  

As someone who thought "Hey, why not kick the tires on it?"

I had no real idea, but Fielder is going to be 28 at season’s start, right? Doing some quick research on just three players I remember who were overweight, or I thought were. Looking at Cecil Fielder, Mo Vaughn, and Dmitri Young, Fielder and Vaughn just dropped in statistics significantly, and in games played neither played more than 117 games after turning 33, with the exception of Young’s Washington stint. Prince’s stats look more like Vaughns than anyones, to the short look I gave (And I didn’t look hard). If Prince Fielder looks at today’s market, he sees that last year Werth got 7 years, and so many other players get long term deals. He’ll want that protection. You can’t blame him. I’m not sure, but do you consider giving Fielder a 7 year deal, hoping that you get those prime 28-29-30 years that it looks like some of these big boppers get, and hoping his decline lasts until that 33 year old wall? That’d be 5 decent years, and if he’d take a 5 year deal, I’d consider doing it.

"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."

by Whiter Mage on Nov 14, 2011 11:31 AM EST up reply actions  

I've argued that 5 or 6 is prudent

I would probably not want him to a longer deal than that unless the last few acknowledge a potential for performance decline.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 12:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Two + Players Away

I really do think the Nats will be very competitive in 2012 with the addition of two players and a slightly strengthened bench. We need a tough, 200 innings pitcher like Beuhrle and a capable .270 or better lead-off man. Injuries are always an issue, so the bench has to be capable. Retain a strong pen, bring Ankiel back, keep Flores and strengthen the bench elsewhere and there we go. With that line-up, we can expect to be in every game and to compete for the playoffs.

by JamesFan on Nov 14, 2011 9:45 AM EST reply actions  

Bring Ankiel back as a 4th or 5th OF I'm fine with

If he’s starting in CF that’s a potential problem, though. He just isn’t productive enough offensively.

by d_c_guy on Nov 14, 2011 10:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I want Ankiel back, but I definitely don’t see any benefit to him starting.

"Don't mind WM...he's an all-around jerk."

by Whiter Mage on Nov 14, 2011 11:32 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd be perfectly happy with Ankiel back, but if he's your Opening Day CF again, it's a roster FAIL...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 14, 2011 12:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Beuhrle and Borne...........

with LaFraud on the bench and Morse at first away from wild card…………Of course how do you get 180 innings out of STRAS and still have him pitching in September?

by artistfork on Nov 14, 2011 10:32 AM EST reply actions  

1) Bourn’s not available; Buehrle’s a possibility, but may well end up in NY or MIA.
2) Read Patrick’s article — Rizzo and Johson consider LaRoche “core”, so get used to seeing him at 1B and Morse in LF
3) you don’t. Get used to it. If you keep insisting, I’ll be forced to conclude you want Strasburg to blow out and become this decade’s Mark Prior.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Nov 14, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

All it takes..............

ia one DL stop with a blister or “something”…………

No one player is more important then an entire city…….

by artistfork on Nov 14, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, sooo...

you’re arguing that if the Nats are in or close to contention in September, then Strasburg should pitch regardless of what his doctors say?

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 1:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I would love to keep Morse at first,

I’m just saying I think Fielder would be a potent bat on a 5 or 6 year deal. He’s incredibly durable but imagine a 5 year deal, you really are worried about him before age 32 ? He’s been amazingly healthy in the beginning of his career and he should truly be hitting his prime years now. I like the potential.

by McBomination on Nov 14, 2011 6:57 PM EST reply actions  

Just seeing a lineup with Prince and Harper written in was enough to convice me...

I just think some AL team that can DH him in the later years might be willing to go longer than the Nats, so I’m not getting my hopes up.

Cecil fell off the map at 34. No guarantee Prince does, but I’d be worried if I were investing big $$. But anyway, #signPrince. He’d be the biggest thing in D.C.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 14, 2011 7:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Now that Albert Haynsworth is in Tampa

sorry, Redskins fans, I couldn’t resist…

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Nov 14, 2011 7:30 PM EST up reply actions  

Ye'll think me nuts, but if I were in Rizzo's place, I'd go all out for Sir Albert Pujols

He’s not going anywhere, you say? Think about it. Cards were no runaway last year. Far from it. Got in as a wild-card, and beat the odds time and again. And this year, Tony LaRussa, the only MLB manager Pujols has ever played for, is gone.

Zimmerman, Morse, Pujols, Werth rebounding, and Harper…? Now we’re talking.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 8:30 PM EST reply actions  

PS: And I'll take Pujols over Fielder any time

Bit older? Sure. Also the greatest hitter of our era, Gold Glove, a leader on and off the field, and one of the best conditioned athletes in baseball. Pujols, no contest, and I don’t care what he costs – long as it’s somebody else’s money.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 14, 2011 8:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Pujols would probably take more years than Fielder

he’s likely to be bad for several years of the contract that he gets.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Nov 15, 2011 12:09 AM EST up reply actions  

That does create an issue for Morse.

Unless you want an OF of Harper-Werth-Morse. Which would likely be the worst defensive OF in all of MLB.

by d_c_guy on Nov 14, 2011 11:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Really?

I would think that Werth and Harper would make for 2/3 of an excellent defensive outfield.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 11:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Harper has already made five errors in 23 AFL games

That’s not to say that he doesn’t have the potential to become a good outfielder, but he’s not one right now. As a CF Werth is very average. This both by the Mark I eyeball test and from a review of his career fielding stats on fangraphs. All this to go with the statue of Morse in LF, that’s one lousy defensive OF.

by d_c_guy on Nov 15, 2011 12:35 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll admit, Werth was somewhat less than advertised in right this year

but I thought he did a pretty good job during his time in center. Harper’s errors don’t bother me, because they are almost certainly due to “youthful exuberance”.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 15, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

But to just assume that youthful exuberance is going to stop immediately

Is kind of a reach, IMHO. Until he grows out of “youthful exuberance” (five errors in 23 games … in the OF, where you only get a handful of chances per game? His fielding percentage must be truly amazing, but not in a good way) I can’t consider him to be anything but a minus defender.

And as average as Werth was in RF, he has consistently been better in RF than in CF in his career. Werth was better than I expected in CF, but I kind of expected him to embarrass himself out there. So it was a triumph over low expectations rather than an indication of greatness.

by d_c_guy on Nov 15, 2011 2:26 PM EST up reply actions  

According to Fangraphs,

LF: .985 FP, 16 TZ, 13.0 UZR/150
CF: .976 FP, 1 TZ, 5.3 UZR/150
RF: .986 FP, 11 TZ, 7.7 UZR/150
TOTAL: .985 FP, 28 TZ, 8.2 UZR/150

For the Nats in 2011, he was a bit below career norms in RF FP (.976), but fielded 1.000 in limited time in CF.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Nov 15, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Again, I'm not saying that Werth stinks in CF

Although even by that metric it’s easily his worst spot in the OF. But to put an OK CF in between an anchor (Morse) and a loose cannon (Harper) and expect anything other than a bad defensive OF is wishful thinking.

Again IMHO. YMMV :-)

by d_c_guy on Nov 15, 2011 3:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't disagree with you either,

Historically, I come down on the defensive side of the spectrum (thus explaining why I rarely won in the baseball board game my neighbor had growing up). I guess it comes down to how much you want to turn SPAD into SPAO, and whether it will translate into PSG

(translation for the acronym-averse: how much defense to sacrifice for offense, and whether it will translate into post-season games)

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Nov 15, 2011 4:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd be happy with Pujols

He is the best hitter of our era, but he is getting on a bit and he’s had some injury issues lately — plus he probably will demand 8-9 years. Still, 300 million here and 300 million there is no big deal, when it comes to a beast like Sir Al.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 14, 2011 11:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Hey Whup, brother, we didn’t need you to make that post to think you nuts.

by PerryMason on Nov 15, 2011 8:59 PM EST up reply actions  

There you go thinking again

For Pujols would I move Morse to left.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 15, 2011 11:56 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don’t see the sense in dropping something north of $200K or just south of $300K on someone thats going to be 32 years old in January. Even assuming he stays healthy For the 7 or 8 years of his contract is he really that much better than what the Nats could get out of an unexposed Morse? Look at what the huge payrolls that the Yankees, Red Sox, etc.etc got them. Not to mention, I think it would be a shame if he left Saint Louey?

by PerryMason on Nov 16, 2011 9:56 AM EST up reply actions  

If the Nats could sign Pujols for $200-300k,

they should be stabbing themselves with their pens in the rush to put ink on paper. However, I’m guessing you actually mean $200-300million :-0

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Nov 16, 2011 11:37 AM EST up reply actions  

BTW Whup – you are spot on about the “thinking” part… I once had a coach who told me “just go play”… if YOU try to out think someone, 9 out of 10 times, you’re going to get your ass kicked… that’s the coaching I ever got.

by PerryMason on Nov 16, 2011 9:06 PM EST up reply actions  

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