Free Agency: If I Was The GM
by Halo on Nov 15, 2011 7:58 AM EST
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I have compiled a list of the Top 10 people I think would be a good fit. And in advance, Washington does have the money for this, they are spending.
We need to get this guy, more than pujols, and here is why - He is still very young, in fact he is only 28. He is extremely durable, missing only 13 games since 2006! The best record since 2006! His average stays around .280, ,400 OBP, .600 SLG. He always hits close to 40 hrs and 100 RBI's. And with the fact that we need a first basemen, he will just be PERFECT.
#2 - Albert Pujols:
This would be a backup if we couldn't get Fielder, he gets pretty much the same stats as Fielder, but I have some negatives here. His wanted salary is almost 5 mil more than Prince, and he is 4 years older, witch means 4 years less of prime production.
#3 - Joel Piniero:
Your probably looking at your screen going "whaaaaatt??" Well this man was a #4 starter for the Angels and he was average to below average. The first half of last year he was amazing, with an ERA at 3, but he slowly deteriorated to a 4.5 ERA. My point here is that he has amazing movement on his sinker(witch is his main pitch) and with a little work he could be a 2 or 1 starter.
#4 - Rick Ankiel:
This man would be great for the Nationals, he is a Utility Outfielder and can constantly perform at his age. I would not give him a long term contract because of his age, but he would be great. Cheap too. Thats a key thing to consider.
#5 - C.J Wilson:
Ok you knew this was coming, but unfortunately it just won't happen. Yes he would be a great fit, but he has already said he has a "serious interest" in the Angels.
#6 - Octavio Dotel:
This guy would be a great releiver, and with the fact that he is a veteran means he could teach some of the new recruits.
#7 - Vincente Padilla:
I'm not sure if you have seen this guy pitch before but he is very good and underated, definately a good cheap buy.
#8 - Darren Oliver
What can i say? He is one of the best releivers I've ever seen in my life :) Very versatile. Definately must get.
#9 - Rafeal Furcal:
It would be a good idea to get him. Because he can play so many different positions, and he is a great hitter.
#10 - Magglio Ordonez:
This would be a backup-backup for Pujols. If they couldn't get either Prince or Albert. He can perform very well, although I'm sure we can all agree we would prefer Prince or Pujols.
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A few thoughts
First, we don’t need a 1B. We need more offense, which is typically associated with the corner positions (1B, 3B, LF, RF). Ironically, this actually helps your case for signing Fielder, who is bad on defense now and not likely to improve. However, I am not sure that the Nationals want to spend $20+million a season on Fielder. Yes, he has been durable throughout his twenties, but you’ll need him to be durable through his decline. If the Nationals are confident that they could continue to be competitive if Fielder didn’t play a game after he was 30, then go for it. Otherwise, I would stand clear. It has taken years of suck to build up the farm system currently feeding the team, and if we can’t get this cohort to be regularly play-off bound, then it will be a long time before we get such an opportunity again. This is especially true if we get struck approximately where we finished this season; not good enough for extra bucks to buy players, not bad enough for top draft picks.
Next, we don’t really need relievers, except perhaps a lefty-specialist to replace Slaten. Assuming we run a six-man pen, we would have Storen, Clippard, Stammen, Rodriguez, Gorzelanny, Burnnett. Other considerations with MLB service time Severino, Cole Kimball, Ryan Matthues, and Livan Hernandez. In the minors we have Zech Zinicola, Josh Wilkie, Rafael Martin, and Pat Lehman.
Third, Furcal was not a great hitter this year. (.231/.298/.348 in 330 PA). He was slightly better than better than Alex Cora who had roughly half the number of PAs. .224/.287/.276
Fourth, Magglio Ordonez was dramatically less productive this season dropping nearly 200 on OPS. He might rebound but he’ll be 38 so it is some what less likely.
I would be happy to have Rick Ankiel back as a 4th OF at a reasonable price. I would also check on the A’s outfield of Crisp, Willingham, and DeJesus. I wouldn’t sign Willingham unless there are some changes to Type-A free agents.
I could also see letting the team get younger and not signing so many bench vets like Nix, Gomes, Cora, and Stairs. Instead letting the September call-ups like Corey Brown, Chris Marrero, and Stephen Lombardozzi play.
Basically I agree with most of this, with a few comments
(1) Signing Pujols or Fielder means that either you either trade Morse or commit to him for the foreseable future in LF. Trading Morse undercuts a lot of the offense you are gaining (at a tremendous cost in $$ and possibly a #1 draft pick), while keeping him in the OF means that sooner or later (when Harper comes up) you’re going to have an OF of Morse, Werth and Harper. That might just be the lousiest defensive OF in MLB.
(2) The bullpen really is pretty much set. Unless there is a move, you have two long relievers (Gorzelanny from the left, Stammen from the right), Burnett as the LOOGY joining Mattheus and MPHRod. Check out Burnett and Gorzelanny’s splits against lefties – pretty impressive. With Severino also a possibility the Nationals are pretty well set with LHP. With Clip & Store that makes a seven man bullpen.
(3) Livan is no longer on the team, and so should be considered a FA option rather than an answer to other options. Because of (2) above and the depth of starting pitching, I just can’t see a spot on the team for Mr. National other than bullpen coach.
(4) Corey Brown should not be playing at Nats Park unless and until he either tears up Viera or proves himself at AAA. While he finished the season strong last year, he needs to prove that his one good month was more represntative of his talent than his four lousy months. Until he does, Ankiel or Hairston are better options as FA for OF depth.
(5) IF LaRoche is healthy, then I think Marrero joins Brown at Syracuse even if the Nationals don’t sign a FA 1b. He is not a good enough hitter to justify the roster slot since he doesn’t offer defensive flexibility or speed on the basepaths as alternate uses. I note that this would also require Tyler Moore to play OF in Syracuse. The versatility may suit Moore well, as he ultimately could be the big hairy RH bat off the bench that DJ likes. All of which “Moore” than justifies putting Moore on the 40 man roster.
(6) How can you have a FA list with Joel Piniero that doesn’t have Roy Oswalt on it?
Where do you get the notion that Werth/Harper/Morse would be a "lousy" outfield?
Werth has been known as a plus defender, Harper seems to know what he’s doing (and he has a cannon arm, from reports). Morse,…, well, Morse is not good but he’s not horrible (he’s better than Braun anyway).
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Well, they would be lacking a true CF
and while Harper continues to improve in the OF, he was drafted for his defense.
Rob, you have actually significantly moderated my position on Fielder. I was generally dead opposed to Fielder, and now I am 49-49-1.
That's true enough.
But he’s athletic enough to overcome his current lack of familiarity with the position (and he’ll be a pretty good one once he gains that familiarity, presuming he doesn’t track along the Nyjer Morgan path, heaven forbid).
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
If Harper's defensive stats are moved to the majors
He’d be tied with the league leader (13 OF errors) … with about 40 games left in the season! I’m for calling Harper up sooner rather than later, but I’m aware that there are going to be growing pains during his “youthful exuberance” phase.
Werth has been known as a plus defender in right field. There is nothing in his career stats that indicate that he is any better than OK in CF.
“Better than Braun” is not a ringing endorsement. OK, you know that already. But to put Morse in with “OK, I guess” and “youthful exuberance” in the OF and expecting anything other than a bad OF is wishful thinking, IMHO.
Don’t get me wrong; I was a lot more against the idea of signing Werth last year than I am of signing Fielder this year; since I was chanting “SIGN ADAM DUNN” I’m not against a big lug who bashes at first base. While I like SPAD, I like scoring runs, too. But there is a trade off here.
Did you happen to look at the OF that won the world series this year.
it had much less range than Morse-Werth-Haper. Plus Harper and Weth have great arms.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
another couple of points supplementing d_c_guy ( in no particular order)
- Rafael Furcal is not versatile. In his career, he has played 1,434 games at SS, and 36 at 2B. That’s it. This is not to say he can’t play elsewhere; it just means he’s historically been a shortstop, period.
- Darren Oliver is 41 years old; Octavio Dotel turns 38 the end of the month. Both look to regress from their 2011 numbers. Assuming the incumbents pitch as expected, I’m with d_c_guy.
- Ankiel’s also a FA.
- I wouldn’t touch Ordonez with a 10-foot pole. He’s fallen off a cliff the past couple of years, he’s a lousy outfielder, and Detroit won their division in spite of him.
- Joel Piniero??? He’s basically a right-handed John Lannan, and pitched horribly in 2011.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
I disagree about the minor leaguers
Is Moore open to Rule 5 yet? If so, I think that we should protect him.
I don’t think that there is any point in having Marrero repeat AAA. I think it would be better to have him testing against MLB pitching. I agree about the logjam at 1B. Personally, I doubt that we’ll be moving La Roche at the deadline. Barring injury to a contending team’s 1B, I don’t see why anybody would want him for half a season. Marrero on the other hand will be cost-controlled for a decent while. He only had 100 PAs so I don’t think that there is much to get a read on him. And the bench spots I was looking to give away weren’t for Ankiel and Hariston. They were Nix, Cora, and Stairs. We paid them like $2.5MM combined, and got squat. This year we could pay Brown, Lombardozzi, and Marrero $1.2MM and spend the rest searching for a CF. If they aren’t working option them back to AAA, and call up somebody else.
And I agree that Brown probably should be in AAA but we’re thin on CFs so he’s getting a shot he might not otherwise get.
Livan is a FA, but has publicly expressed a strong desire to return to the team he has
served so long and so well.
Plus, at a $1MM, he’s cheap and I would like to keep him in the org until he retires. Also, his stats this year were in line with last year, so I don’t think there has be some dramatic decrease in his performance.
I sure hope the Nationals would be willing to spend $20 million a year
on a likely MVP candidate. We’re talking probably at least four or five years of top-line production here before he may begin to decline substantially. His presence will pay for itself in the first few years unless he has a disastrous crash.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Actually, you are looking at more like 3 years of top-line production
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/how-will-prince-fielder-age/
Assuming you got 5 years of 4.5 WAR or better, then I would be ok with that, even though you would likely burn $20 million for 2 seasons. But that would mean the Fielder was a productive member for the Nationals during the best World Series contention years 2013-2016. I would also be ok with a few high-buyout mutual options. Something 5 years at $22M, then 2 mutual options for the same with say $10million on each. Comes out to 7 years $130 guranteed, with an extra $24 million. So $154 million on 7 years. And if the Nationals aren’t in contention at the end of his career he can walk to a contender if he doesn’t have a ring. I don’t know that he would take it, but I don’t think it is out of the realm of possibility.
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