2011 Nationals, Against The Odds

by Xeifrank on Nov 16, 2011 1:06 AM EST

Here is a look at how the Nationals 2011 actual results stacked up compared to what the Vegas odds makers thought of them throughout the season. If you take the win Vegas win expectancy from all 162 of the Nationals games and add them up, you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4578 which translates to an expected win total of 74.16 games. If you do the same for my simulation of each Nationals game you get a seasonal win expectancy of 0.4750 or 76.95 wins. The Nationals actually went 80-81 on the season. The Nationals finished off the season well, never quite getting the respect it deserved from Vegas. Below is a list of all 162 games with the Vegas odds for every game, the list is sorted by games in which the Nationals were the largest favorite to win.

Rank	Date	Away SP	Home SP	Away	Home	Fave	Fave Win Perc	WAS Win Perc	Sim WAS Win Perc	Winning Team	Away Runs	Home Runs	Total Runs
1	09-17-2011	Chris Volstad	Stephen Strasburg	FLA	WAS	WAS	67.105	67.105	59.31	FLA	4	1	5
2	09-11-11	Henry Sosa	Stephen Strasburg	HOU	WAS	WAS	66.997	66.997	70.766	WAS	2	8	10
3	07-04-11	Casey Coleman	Jordan Zimmerman	CHN	WAS	WAS	63.834	63.834	65.918	WAS	4	5	9
4	07-02-11	Brad Lincoln	John Lannan	PIT	WAS	WAS	60.63	60.63	66.555	WAS	4	3	7
5	07-02-11	James McDonald	Livan Hernandez	PIT	WAS	WAS	60	60	64.967	PIT	5	3	8
6	07-28-2011	Brad Hand	John Lannan	FLA	WAS	WAS	59.432	59.432	59.407	FLA	5	2	7
7	06-18-2011	Brian Matusz	Jordan Zimmerman	BAL	WAS	WAS	59.184	59.184	64.663	WAS	2	4	6
8	09-06-11	Ted Lilly	Stephen Strasburg	LAN	WAS	WAS	59.1	59.1	63.419	LAN	7	3	10
9	07-03-11	Kevin Correia	Jason Marquis	PIT	WAS	WAS	58.592	58.592	64.521	PIT	10	2	12
10	09-28-2011	Stephen Strasburg	Chris Volstad	WAS	FLA	WAS	58.42	58.42	47.845	WAS	3	1	4
11	09-18-2011	Brad Hand	Chien-Ming Wang	FLA	WAS	WAS	58.333	58.333	54.83	WAS	3	4	7
12	07-19-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	J.A. Happ	WAS	HOU	WAS	58.246	58.246	55.157	HOU	6	7	13
13	07-01-11	Charlie Morton	Tom Gorzelanny	PIT	WAS	WAS	56.616	56.616	55.721	WAS	1	2	3
14	06-19-2011	Chris Jakubauskas	Tom Gorzelanny	BAL	WAS	WAS	56.616	56.616	57.498	BAL	7	4	11
15	07-26-2011	Ricky Nolasco	Jordan Zimmerman	FLA	WAS	WAS	56.616	56.616	55.85	FLA	11	2	13
16	08-25-2011	Wade Miley	John Lannan	ARI	WAS	WAS	56.616	56.616	53.97	ARI	8	1	9
17	07-05-11	Ramon Ortiz	Ross Detwiler	CHN	WAS	WAS	56.427	56.427	56.421	WAS	2	3	5
18	07-08-11	Jason Hammel	John Lannan	COL	WAS	WAS	56.427	56.427	50.347	COL	3	2	5
19	09-10-11	Wandy Rodriguez	John Lannan	HOU	WAS	WAS	56.427	56.427	59.804	HOU	9	3	12
20	07-06-11	Randy Wells	Tom Gorzelanny	CHN	WAS	WAS	56.236	56.236	54.229	WAS	4	5	9
21	05-28-2011	Tim Stauffer	Jordan Zimmerman	SD	WAS	WAS	56.236	56.236	51.225	SD	2	1	3
22	08-18-2011	Bronson Arroyo	Jordan Zimmerman	CIN	WAS	WAS	56.236	56.236	62.311	WAS	1	3	4
23	07-10-11	Jhoulys Chacin	Jordan Zimmerman	COL	WAS	WAS	55.947	55.947	55.131	WAS	0	2	2
24	05-15-2011	Javier Vazquez	Jason Marquis	FLA	WAS	WAS	54.751	54.751	56.764	WAS	4	8	12
25	05-27-2011	Clayton Richard	John Lannan	SD	WAS	WAS	54.649	54.649	52.707	WAS	1	2	3
26	07-31-2011	John Niese	Jordan Zimmerman	NYN	WAS	WAS	54.442	54.442	51.195	WAS	2	3	5
27	08-20-2011	Kyle Kendrick	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	WAS	54.023	54.023	54.007	PHI	5	0	5
28	06-17-2011	Zach Britton	Jason Marquis	BAL	WAS	WAS	53.917	53.917	55.751	WAS	4	8	12
29	08-23-2011	Ian Kennedy	Jordan Zimmerman	ARI	WAS	WAS	53.271	53.271	57.765	ARI	2	0	2
30	04-26-2011	Chris Young	Jordan Zimmerman	NYN	WAS	WAS	53.162	53.162	56.059	NYN	6	4	10
31	06-21-2011	Doug Fister	Livan Hernandez	SEA	WAS	WAS	53.162	53.162	55.624	WAS	5	6	11
32	05-13-2011	Chris Volstad	Tom Gorzelanny	FLA	WAS	WAS	52.719	52.719	56.662	FLA	6	5	11
33	09-16-2011	Javier Vazquez	John Lannan	FLA	WAS	WAS	52.719	52.719	54.959	FLA	3	0	3
34	05-16-2011	Paul Maholm	John Lannan	PIT	WAS	WAS	52.494	52.494	51.946	WAS	2	4	6
35	07-07-11	Matt Garza	Livan Hernandez	CHN	WAS	WAS	52.038	52.038	55.314	CHN	10	9	19
36	09-09-11	Bud Norris	Tommy Milone	HOU	WAS	WAS	51.574	51.574	58.82	WAS	3	4	7
37	05-29-2011	Dustin Moseley	Yunesky Maya	SD	WAS	WAS	51.338	51.338	51.533	SD	5	4	9
38	07-27-2011	Javier Vazquez	Livan Hernandez	FLA	WAS	WAS	51.22	51.22	59.632	FLA	7	5	12
39	09-04-11	Mike Pelfrey	Livan Hernandez	NYN	WAS	WAS	51.1	51.1	55.357	NYN	6	3	9
40	04-28-2011	Chris Capuano	Livan Hernandez	NYN	WAS	WAS	50.86	50.86	58.223	WAS	3	4	7
41	06-22-2011	Erik Bedard	John Lannan	SEA	WAS	WAS	50.86	50.86	52.371	WAS	1	2	3
42	05-02-11	Madison Bumgarner	Tom Gorzelanny	SF	WAS	WAS	50.739	50.739	50.264	WAS	0	2	2
43	06-16-2011	Kyle Lohse	John Lannan	STL	WAS	WAS	50.617	50.617	49.569	WAS	4	7	11
44	09-02-11	R.A. Dickey	Ross Detwiler	NYN	WAS	WAS	50.249	50.249	50.706	NYN	7	3	10
45	04-17-2011	Marco Estrada	Livan Hernandez	MIL	WAS	WAS	50.249	50.249	63.106	WAS	1	5	6
46	07-18-2011	Jason Marquis	Jordan Lyles	WAS	HOU	WAS	50.249	50.249	52.505	WAS	5	3	8
47	09-03-11	Dillon Gee	Tommy Milone	NYN	WAS	WAS	50	50	56.637	WAS	7	8	15
48	09-08-11	Chad Billingsley	Chien-Ming Wang	LAN	WAS	WAS	50	50	51.9	LAN	7	4	11
49	07-30-2011	R.A. Dickey	Jason Marquis	NYN	WAS	NYN	50.739	49.261	51.269	WAS	0	3	3
50	08-10-11	Ross Detwiler	Rodrigo Lopez	WAS	CHN	CHN	51.1	48.9	45.348	CHN	2	4	6
51	08-22-2011	Joe Saunders	Ross Detwiler	ARI	WAS	ARI	51.1	48.9	54.5	WAS	1	4	5
52	06-12-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Tim Stauffer	WAS	SD	SD	51.22	48.78	44.085	WAS	2	0	2
53	04-27-2011	R.A. Dickey	Tom Gorzelanny	NYN	WAS	NYN	51.338	48.662	51.711	NYN	6	3	9
54	05-22-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Chris Tillman	WAS	BAL	BAL	51.338	48.662	46.401	BAL	1	2	3
55	09-23-2011	Tim Hudson	Stephen Strasburg	ATL	WAS	ATL	51.456	48.544	49.77	ATL	7	4	11
56	09-05-11	Hiroki Kuroda	John Lannan	LAN	WAS	LAN	51.807	48.193	52.372	WAS	2	7	9
57	06-15-2011	Kyle McClellan	Livan Hernandez	STL	WAS	STL	51.807	48.193	53.416	WAS	0	10	10
58	09-15-2011	Tommy Milone	Chris Schwinden	WAS	NYN	NYN	51.923	48.077	46.663	WAS	10	1	11
59	04-23-2011	Livan Hernandez	Jeff Karstens	WAS	PIT	PIT	52.153	47.847	52.294	PIT	2	7	9
60	08-11-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Ryan Dempster	WAS	CHN	CHN	52.267	47.733	45.068	CHN	3	4	7
61	08-02-11	Derek Lowe	John Lannan	ATL	WAS	ATL	52.494	47.506	49.411	WAS	3	9	12
62	07-09-11	Ubaldo Jimenez	Jason Marquis	COL	WAS	COL	52.494	47.506	45.516	COL	2	1	3
63	07-20-2011	Livan Hernandez	Brett Myers	WAS	HOU	HOU	52.494	47.506	50.52	HOU	2	3	5
64	08-07-11	John Lannan	Aaron Cook	WAS	COL	COL	52.607	47.393	42.96	WAS	3	2	5
65	07-29-2011	Dillon Gee	Chien-Ming Wang	NYN	WAS	NYN	52.941	47.059	47.064	NYN	8	5	13
66	04-25-2011	John Lannan	Paul Maholm	WAS	PIT	PIT	53.162	46.838	45.982	PIT	2	4	6
67	06-23-2011	Michael Pineda	Jason Marquis	SEA	WAS	SEA	53.162	46.838	53.052	WAS	0	1	1
68	05-01-11	Matt Cain	Jordan Zimmerman	SF	WAS	SF	53.271	46.729	49.691	WAS	2	5	7
69	06-11-11	John Lannan	Clayton Richard	WAS	SD	SD	53.271	46.729	43.041	WAS	2	1	3
70	05-18-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Johnathan Niese	WAS	NYN	NYN	53.271	46.729	41.64	NYN	0	3	3
71	04-12-11	Joe Blanton	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	53.596	46.404	51.826	WAS	4	7	11
72	06-24-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Edwin Jackson	WAS	CHA	CHA	53.596	46.404	47.923	WAS	9	5	14
73	04-15-2011	Chris Narveson	Tom Gorzelanny	MIL	WAS	MIL	53.811	46.189	49.519	WAS	3	4	7
74	05-14-2011	Anibal Sanchez	Livan Hernandez	FLA	WAS	FLA	53.811	46.189	47.418	FLA	1	0	1
75	08-24-2011	Daniel Hudson	Livan Hernandez	ARI	WAS	ARI	53.811	46.189	49.58	ARI	4	2	6
76	09-25-2011	Mike Minor	Ross Detwiler	ATL	WAS	ATL	53.811	46.189	45.294	WAS	0	3	3
77	06-09-11	Livan Hernandez	Aaron Harang	WAS	SD	SD	54.233	45.767	44.468	SD	3	7	10
78	08-09-11	Ross Detwiler	Rodrigo Lopez	WAS	CHN	CHN	54.442	45.558	45.518	WAS	3	1	4
79	06-02-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Zach Duke	WAS	ARI	ARI	54.545	45.455	50.546	WAS	6	1	7
80	05-19-2011	Livan Hernandez	Dillon Gee	WAS	NYN	NYN	54.649	45.351	46.202	NYN	0	1	1
81	04-30-2011	Jonathan Sanchez	John Lannan	SF	WAS	SF	54.751	45.249	47.037	SF	2	1	3
82	06-28-2011	Jason Marquis	Joel Pineiro	WAS	LAA	LAA	54.853	45.147	48.242	LAA	5	11	16
83	09-14-2011	Brad Peacock	Mike Pelfrey	WAS	NYN	NYN	54.853	45.147	40.79	WAS	2	0	2
84	04-03-11	Tim Hudson	Jordan Zimmerman	ATL	WAS	ATL	54.955	45.045	54.17	ATL	11	2	13
85	08-05-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Juan Nicasio	WAS	COL	COL	55.056	44.944	42.17	WAS	5	3	8
86	04-24-2011	Jason Marquis	Kevin Correia	WAS	PIT	PIT	55.056	44.944	47.119	WAS	6	3	9
87	08-16-2011	Mike Leake	Chien-Ming Wang	CIN	WAS	CIN	55.654	44.346	47.324	WAS	4	6	10
88	05-07-11	Tom Gorzelanny	Chris Volstad	WAS	FLA	FLA	55.85	44.15	50.334	WAS	5	2	7
89	04-09-11	Tom Gorzelanny	Chris Capuano	WAS	NYN	NYN	55.85	44.15	52.656	NYN	4	8	12
90	07-24-2011	Jason Marquis	Chad Billingsley	WAS	LAN	LAN	55.85	44.15	40.949	LAN	1	3	4
91	06-27-2011	John Lannan	Ervin Santana	WAS	LAA	LAA	56.044	43.956	46.084	LAA	3	4	7
92	07-23-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Ted Lilly	WAS	LAN	LAN	56.044	43.956	45.177	LAN	6	7	13
93	09-26-2011	Tommy Milone	Anibal Sanchez	WAS	FLA	FLA	56.803	43.197	36.784	WAS	6	4	10
94	08-17-2011	Johnny Cueto	Ross Detwiler	CIN	WAS	CIN	56.989	43.011	45.936	CIN	2	1	3
95	06-07-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Jonathan Sanchez	WAS	SF	SF	57.173	42.827	41.686	WAS	2	1	3
96	04-17-2011	Yovanni Gallardo	Jason Marquis	MIL	WAS	MIL	57.173	42.827	51.802	WAS	4	8	12
97	06-29-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Dan Haren	WAS	LAA	LAA	57.173	42.827	44.635	LAA	0	1	1
98	04-02-11	Tommy Hanson	John Lannan	ATL	WAS	ATL	57.265	42.735	52.069	WAS	3	6	9
99	04-06-11	Livan Hernandez	Chris Volstad	WAS	FLA	FLA	57.265	42.735	53.385	FLA	4	7	11
100	08-04-11	Ross Detwiler	Esmil Rogers	WAS	COL	COL	57.356	42.644	38.566	COL	3	6	9
101	07-22-2011	John Lannan	Hiroki Kuroda	WAS	LAN	LAN	57.356	42.644	43.234	WAS	7	2	9
102	03-31-2011	Derek Lowe	Livan Hernandez	ATL	WAS	ATL	57.447	42.553	58.9	ATL	2	0	2
103	09-12-11	Ross Detwiler	R.A. Dickey	WAS	NYN	NYN	57.537	42.463	39.23	WAS	3	2	5
104	08-19-2011	Roy Oswalt	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	57.537	42.463	47.595	WAS	4	8	12
105	08-26-2011	Chien-Ming Wang	Dontrelle Willis	WAS	CIN	CIN	57.537	42.463	35.32	CIN	3	4	7
106	06-14-2011	Jaime Garcia	Yunesky Maya	STL	WAS	STL	57.717	42.283	34.458	WAS	6	8	14
107	08-01-11	Jair Jurrjens	Livan Hernandez	ATL	WAS	ATL	57.806	42.194	51.188	WAS	3	5	8
108	04-10-11	Jason Marquis	Chris Young	WAS	NYN	NYN	58.071	41.929	48.806	WAS	7	3	10
109	09-13-2011	Chien-Ming Wang	Dillon Gee	WAS	NYN	NYN	58.42	41.58	41.887	WAS	3	2	5
110	04-08-11	Jordan Zimmerman	R.A. Dickey	WAS	NYN	NYN	58.506	41.494	43.945	WAS	6	2	8
111	04-20-2011	John Lannan	Jake Westbrook	WAS	STL	STL	58.506	41.494	45.194	WAS	8	6	14
112	05-21-2011	John Lannan	Jeremy Guthrie	WAS	BAL	BAL	58.848	41.152	45.147	BAL	3	8	11
113	06-01-11	Roy Oswalt	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	PHI	58.932	41.068	43.722	WAS	1	2	3
114	06-04-11	Livan Hernandez	Joe Saunders	WAS	ARI	ARI	58.932	41.068	47.389	ARI	0	2	2
115	09-24-2011	Brandon Beachy	Chien-Ming Wang	ATL	WAS	ATL	58.932	41.068	41.2	WAS	1	4	5
116	08-27-2011	Ross Detwiler	Mike Leake	WAS	CIN	CIN	59.1	40.9	38.419	CIN	3	6	9
117	06-25-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	John Danks	WAS	CHA	CHA	59.267	40.733	41.754	CHA	0	3	3
118	06-26-2011	Livan Hernandez	Phil Humber	WAS	CHA	CHA	59.267	40.733	42.676	WAS	2	1	3
119	05-20-2011	Jason Marquis	Jake Arrieta	WAS	BAL	BAL	59.432	40.568	44.633	WAS	17	5	22
120	04-14-2011	Cliff Lee	Jordan Zimmerman	PHI	WAS	PHI	59.514	40.486	43.434	PHI	4	0	4
121	08-03-11	Brandon Beachy	Chien-Ming Wang	ATL	WAS	ATL	59.596	40.404	46.589	ATL	6	4	10
122	05-04-11	Jason Marquis	Vance Worley	WAS	PHI	PHI	59.596	40.404	51.569	PHI	4	7	11
123	08-28-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Johnny Cueto	WAS	CIN	CIN	59.596	40.404	43.409	CIN	4	5	9
124	06-10-11	Jason Marquis	Mat Latos	WAS	SD	SD	59.759	40.241	40.612	WAS	2	1	3
125	05-24-2011	Livan Hernandez	Chris Narveson	WAS	MIL	MIL	59.92	40.08	40.748	MIL	6	7	13
126	05-06-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Ricky Nolasco	WAS	FLA	FLA	60.08	39.92	45.789	WAS	4	2	6
127	09-27-2011	John Lannan	Javier Vazquez	WAS	FLA	FLA	60.239	39.761	42.814	FLA	2	3	5
128	04-29-2011	Tim Lincecum	Jason Marquis	SF	WAS	SF	60.861	39.139	44.291	WAS	0	3	3
129	04-05-11	Jason Marquis	Anibal Sanchez	WAS	FLA	FLA	60.938	39.063	44.066	FLA	2	3	5
130	06-05-11	Jason Marquis	Ian Kennedy	WAS	ARI	ARI	61.165	38.835	37.717	WAS	9	4	13
131	04-21-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Kyle LOhse	WAS	STL	STL	61.165	38.835	36.397	STL	0	5	5
132	08-31-2011	John Lannan	Derek Lowe	WAS	ATL	ATL	61.165	38.835	37.624	ATL	1	3	4
133	05-08-11	Livan Hernandez	Anibal Sanchez	WAS	FLA	FLA	61.39	38.61	41.21	FLA	0	8	8
134	04-20-2011	Jordan Zimmerman	Jaime Garcia	WAS	STL	STL	61.39	38.61	33.525	STL	3	5	8
135	09-20-2011	Ross Detwiler	Kyle Kendrick	WAS	PHI	PHI	61.39	38.61	38.35	WAS	4	3	7
136	07-17-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Jair Jurrjens	WAS	ATL	ATL	62.264	37.736	37.023	ATL	8	9	17
137	08-06-11	Livan Hernandez	Jhoulys Chacin	WAS	COL	COL	62.335	37.665	40.139	COL	7	15	22
138	05-25-2011	Jason Marquis	Zach Greinke	WAS	MIL	MIL	62.477	37.523	41.676	MIL	4	6	10
139	05-31-2011	Cliff Lee	Jason Marquis	PHI	WAS	PHI	62.477	37.523	37.67	WAS	2	10	12
140	05-23-2011	Tom Gorzelanny	Yovanni Gallardo	WAS	MIL	MIL	62.617	37.383	39.533	MIL	3	11	14
141	06-03-11	Yunesky Maya	Josh Collmenter	WAS	ARI	ARI	62.894	37.106	39.564	ARI	0	4	4
142	07-15-2011	Livan Hernandez	Tim Hudson	WAS	ATL	ATL	62.894	37.106	42.16	ATL	1	11	12
143	09-21-2011	John Lannan	Vance Worley	WAS	PHI	PHI	63.031	36.969	30.29	WAS	7	5	12
144	07-16-2011	John Lannan	Tommy Hanson	WAS	ATL	ATL	63.57	36.43	37.962	WAS	5	2	7
145	04-07-11	John Lannan	Josh Johnson	WAS	FLA	FLA	63.636	36.364	41.18	WAS	5	3	8
146	05-12-11	Jordan Zimmerman	Derek Lowe	WAS	ATL	ATL	63.636	36.364	39.062	ATL	5	6	11
147	08-30-2011	Livan Hernandez	Jair Jurrjens	WAS	ATL	ATL	63.834	36.166	41.041	WAS	9	2	11
148	04-13-2011	Roy Halladay	John Lannan	PHI	WAS	PHI	64.093	35.907	46.547	PHI	3	2	5
149	06-08-11	Yunesky Maya	Matt Cain	WAS	SF	SF	64.349	35.651	32.138	SF	1	3	4
150	05-30-2011	Roy Halladay	Livan Hernandez	PHI	WAS	PHI	64.912	35.088	37.262	PHI	5	4	9
151	06-06-11	John Lannan	Tim Lincecum	WAS	SF	SF	65.636	34.364	31.997	SF	4	5	9
152	09-22-2011	Brad Peacock	Roy Oswalt	WAS	PHI	PHI	65.695	34.305	29.86	WAS	6	1	7
153	05-11-11	John Lannan	Tommy Hanson	WAS	ATL	ATL	66.102	33.898	34.868	WAS	7	3	10
154	05-10-11	Jason Marquis	Tim Hudson	WAS	ATL	ATL	66.273	33.727	40.368	WAS	7	6	13
155	08-13-2011	John Lannan	Roy Oswalt	WAS	PHI	PHI	66.997	33.003	38.35	PHI	3	11	14
156	09-01-11	Chien-Ming Wang	Tim Hudson	WAS	ATL	ATL	67.213	32.787	32.763	ATL	2	5	7
157	05-05-11	John Lannan	Roy Halladay	WAS	PHI	PHI	68.254	31.746	35.493	PHI	3	7	10
158	08-21-2011	Roy Halladay	Chien-Ming Wang	PHI	WAS	PHI	68.354	31.646	35.182	WAS	4	5	9
159	05-03-11	Livan Hernandez	Cole Hamels	WAS	PHI	PHI	68.75	31.25	37.636	PHI	1	4	5
160	09-20-2011	Tommy Milone	Cliff Lee	WAS	PHI	PHI	69.325	30.675	28.08	WAS	3	0	3
161	08-12-11	Livan Hernandez	Cole Hamels	WAS	PHI	PHI	72.49	27.51	30.782	WAS	4	2	6

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Comments

For future reference, Jordan Zimmermann spells his name like this, with two "nn"s.

Zimm was favored in ten of his 26 starts, but the Nats only won five of those, and he ended the season with just eight wins.

Lannan was also favored in 1/3 of his starts. Very interesting.

by dc Roach on Nov 16, 2011 2:06 AM EST reply actions

I love the bottom two!

of course they went 5-5 in the ten games they were most favored, 6-4 in the ten they were least favored

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Nov 16, 2011 8:20 AM EST reply actions

Which is why betting on baseball is essentially nuts

Even if you are savvy to the dreaded “reverse lock” situation (hello, Tommy Milone vs. Cliff Lee).

by d_c_guy on Nov 16, 2011 10:02 AM EST up reply actions

not many people pay attention to the Danny Espinosa vs Cliff Lee factor :)

by dc Roach on Nov 16, 2011 10:23 AM EST up reply actions

You really need a large sample

of games to even out all the craziness for betting baseball. Just too many unpredictable things in a one game sample size. Heck, I run my simulations of each game 100K times just to even out its noise. It pretty much takes a whole season of betting most of the games to get a sense of if you know what you are doing.

Dodger Sims | Twitter | Xei On Sports

by Xeifrank on Nov 16, 2011 1:39 PM EST up reply actions