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The Washington Nationals Have Scouted Yu Darvish, Will They Bid On The Right-Hander If He's Posted?

21-year-old right-hander Stephen Strasburg, the prospect of the decade, a once-in-a-generation talent, signed a 4-year/$15.1 million dollar contract in August of 2009. The deal, the largest ever given to a draft pick, included a $7.5 million dollar signing bonus. Less than six months later in January of 2010, then-21-year-old amateur free agent Aroldis Chapman signed a 6-year/$30.25 million dollar deal with the Cincinnati Reds which included a $16.25 million dollar signing bonus. The Washington Nationals gave Strasburg a record deal, and were reportedly willing to go as high as 5-years and $25 million to sign the Cuban lefty Chapman, falling short by a year of what the Reds had offered. "'We had the second-highest offer on the table,'" Nationals' GM Mike Rizzo told Washington Post reporter Thomas Boswell at the time. "[Rizzo] paused and added, 'We thought it was first,'" Mr. Boswell wrote.

Star-divide

Washington Post writer Chico Harlan added to his colleague's report, noting in the article that, "At least five members of Washington's front office -- Jay Robertson (special assistant to the GM), Johnny DiPuglia (director of international scouting), Kasey McKeon (director of player procurement), Bill Singer (director of pro scouting) and Ron Schueler (special advisor to the GM) -- had scouted Chapman," and the GM saw him pitch twice in private workouts. 

Asked what it was about Chapman that warranted the interest and that sort of contract offer, the Nats' general manager told the Washington Post's Mr. Boswell, "We see a huge upsided pitcher. There's some risk involved, of course, but this was a chance to get a front-of-the-rotation pitcher with an unlimited ceiling. And as you know, No. 1 starters are very difficult to find. Either you develop them ourselves or you pay dearly for them in free agency." Eight months later the Nationals would bid for and sign the next big thing out of Cuba, then 28-year-old right-hander Yunesky Maya

Washington gave Maya a 4-year/$8 million dollar contract. Speaking at a press conference introducing the pitcher, Rizzo described Maya as the Washington Nationals' "first major international." In the Nationals' official press release, the team noted that Maya was joining, "... the Nationals after a stellar career in the Cuban National Series, which is Cuba's Major League Baseball equivalent," where he had, "...earned Cuba's equivalent of the Cy Young during his final season in his homeland, going 13-4 with seven complete games and a 2.22 ERA." 

The Nationals had a "very thorough evaluatory process" Mr. Rizzo continued, "[Maya] was seen I think by five separate scouts on separate occasions, during international competition over the years, most recently during the World Baseball Classic and we had multiple reports on him and we scouted him very in-depth in the Dominican Republic once we got over there."

"In accordance [with] what we preached two years ago when I took over as the general manager," Rizzo told reporters, "Our international efforts, run by Johnny DiPuglia, our Director of International Operations, along with his staff and a deep scouting effort has brought us our first major international signing that we think is going to impact our major league ballclub immediately." The previous August after the Nationals had signed Strasburg, the then-interim-GM had told writers about his plans to expand the Nationals' scouting department. 

Asked specifically if the team would expand its operations in the Pacific Rim (defined by the questioner as Japan, Korea and Australia), Rizzo had responded, "Definitely. The Pacific Rim will be a place of focus for us. The Pacific Rim is for, strictly to supplement your major league club. We have, Bill Singer is our coordinator, of the Pacific Rim, ex-major league pitcher, and he goes there several times, at least one per season, some seasons he's gone twice, he's currently getting set to go the World Games that are in Europe this year, and he keeps his finger on the pulse pretty good in the Pacific Rim."

When Yu Darvish was considering asking to be posted last winter, reports surfaced that the Nats were interested in the then-23-year-old right-hander who was dominating Japanese baseball as part of the Nippon-Ham Fighters' rotation. Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore reported in an Nationals Journal Post entitled, "The Nationals could pursue Yu Darvish", at the time that, "Nationals scouts have seen Darvish pitch in person at least nine times, including several games in Japan, and they have been impressed enough to recommend to the front office that he is worth trying to sign."

With the right-hander reportedly considering making the jump to MLB again this winter, and Washington again in the market for a starter, the Nats' GM confirmed that the Nationals were still interested in a recent interview. Rizzo was asked if they had scouted the right-hander recently. "We scout every player that we have interest in. Yu Darvish, specifically, is a player that has a great talent level," Rizzo told reporters, "We've scouted him over the years, I've scouted him personally over the years, our pro scouts have scouted him this year specifically. We've scouted the whole Japanese Professional League as well as every other international league that plays organized baseball."

"As we've always said," Rizzo continued, "We're open to acquire talent in any way, shape or form that we can, and if it's international talent, we're certainly willing to acquire international players." Asked when he last saw Darvish pitch personally, the Nats' GM said, "I haven't seen him pitch for the last two seasons, but we've seen him pitch this year, several times." Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell, who's been tracking the Nationals' interest in Darvish for some time now, wrote in a recent chat that, "...the Nats have been circling Yu Darvish for about five years."

"If you are looking for Nats targets, look at Darvish," the WaPost writer wrote. Darvish reportedly still hasn't decided whether or not he'll ask to be posted. The Nippon Series ends today. A decision by the right-hander will probably follow shortly thereafter. NPB Tracker's Patrick Newman quoted Darvish's father from an article out of Japan this weekend in which he said that it was 50/50 right now if his son stays in Japan or leaves for MLB. Darvish could wait until he's a free agent and maybe get more money, but it would be hard to top the season he just had or the run he's been on the last few years. If he's posted, wIll the Nationals make an offer?

It's not every day you get to add a great talent without surrendering anything but cash. The Nationals' know top-end starters are hard to find. The Nats' scouts thought he was worth pursuing in the past, and the D.C. front office has shown a willingness to spend. Now that he wouldn't even have to be a no.1 with talent like Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann already in Washington's rotation, Darvish might make more sense than ever for the nation's capital's Nats.

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I think that they will definitely bid...

I really don’t think that there is a question about that… will they win? I doubt it. I think that the Blue Jays, Yanks, Rangers, etc feel more desperate/willing to spend more. Rizz seems to have a cap like he did with Chapman. I am confident that his bid will be high, and higher than some would like, but I doubt it is the winning bid. I think the winning bid will be 55+M.

by Hotpockets on Nov 20, 2011 8:34 AM EST reply actions  

Agreed. Either Toronto or Texas is going to overpay for him

And then be surprised when he struggles pitching in their launching pad of a park.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Nov 20, 2011 9:38 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Lettum

After Maya, one hopes “There’ll never be another Yu.”

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 20, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions  

Rizzo will definately bid on the posting...

but where he sets a ‘reasonable value’ and what some teams will ultimately pay for negotiating rights remains to be seen. Darvish could well go for $40M+ in posting fees alone, plus another $55M to get him signed. That’s a lot, even when it’s somebody else’s money.

"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3

by BinM on Nov 20, 2011 12:33 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd rather spend $140M for 7 years of Fielder

than $100M for 6 years of Darvish.

And it’s not even close.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 20, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

Heh...RobBob, what is it with you and "portly"

First basemen?
First undying devotion to Dunn and now the same for Fielder.

Me, I say, “SIGN YU DARVISH!”
:-)

"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011

by MissB on Nov 20, 2011 7:18 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Uh oh, you weren't 'posed to bring up Adam Dunn

Salt in the wound, y’know.

"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Nov 20, 2011 10:31 PM EST up reply actions  

If you are talking about their production,

I suppose you could call it “portly”.

Fielder’s a proven commodity. Darvish is not. That’s all I’m about.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 21, 2011 1:10 AM EST up reply actions  

oh I assumed it was batting from the left side...

or port in nautical terms. because adam Dunn isn’t really overweight…

by Hotpockets on Nov 21, 2011 5:44 PM EST up reply actions  

You're right, this must be it.

It’s so hard to call Michael Morse “starboardly”.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 21, 2011 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

But you two might be onto something for the Mariners...

… “Now batting, portsider Dustin Ackley, 2nd base”…

"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3

by BinM on Nov 21, 2011 7:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Buster Olney

Olney ommented in his article that baseball has a SS problem. I know one team that doesn’t. While its nice to have extreme depth there I wonder what kind of package we could get in return from some of these teams.

Exciting problem to have.

He also mentions depth issues for catchers on teams. I know another team that doesn’t.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Nov 20, 2011 12:04 PM EST reply actions  

Nice. What about 1B? Seems we have a little there as well. Slowly but surely, we are rebuilding a franchise that MLB destroyed…..but hey, at least they finally let us have it! Nice post Sully.

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 20, 2011 12:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I like Tyler Moore

but his .314 OBP I am sure scares some people. I read something about him practicing in the outfield but see no stats to support. that.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Nov 20, 2011 4:50 PM EST up reply actions  

The Nationals arent really 'deep' at SS,

they just have two (Desmond / Espinosa) currently playing in DC. Otherwise, it’s pretty thin until you get down to high-A or lower.

"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3

by BinM on Nov 20, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Sure

But its not the NFL. 1 shortstop suffices. we have two with additional flexibility because of our minor league depth with Lombardozzi and Rendon. Major playoff teams lack 1 shortstop of value, whether its the Brewers, Giants, Cardinals (furcal is a free agent), Twins, Rays, dodgers. And thats off the top of my head.

Playoff teams are likely to play more.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Nov 20, 2011 4:46 PM EST up reply actions  

The Nats Can't Win......

….in the Yu sweepstakes. If they bid and lose, they will be pasted as losers. If they bid and win, they will be ridiculed once again for paying too much. If they don’t even try, they will be castrated for not trying. Regardless “what” the Nats do in this situation, this board and others, will flame them to no end. I am with Rob on this one though…..the money it will likely take to get a Curly W on this guy’s ballcap, is going to be enormous….. and we don’t even know what he will truly bring to MLB. This will be a huge gamble for the team who eventually gets him, for a unknown result that won’t take the field except every 5th day. As for me, however, I’m not going to “complain” one way or the other…..I’ll just hope for the best.

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 21, 2011 2:38 AM EST reply actions  

Right

The negatives outweigh the positives in my mind. The Nats can’t afford a huge financial bust like Yu Darvish. The Yankees and other clubs can obviously contain it and not let effect their season too much (See Irabu and Dice-K), but I just feel like if the Nats a bid and he’s bust, they’ll set the org. back a few years.

Then again its not like the Nats are playing for the World Series…yet.

The Yankees, i have to think, are the favorites to land Darvish. They have the need for starting pitching 2011 Yankee SP were CC Sabathia, AJ Burnett, Freddy Garcia, Bartolo Colon, Phil Hughes, and Ivan Nova. I see Nova, Sabathia, Hughes, and Burnett potentially coming back though Burnett’s a disaster. I believe Garcia and Colon are Free Agents?

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Nov 21, 2011 8:34 AM EST up reply actions  

point being

With the exception of CC Sabathia and Ivan Nova, I don’t see anyone that would be replaced by Darvish in seconds.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Nov 21, 2011 8:35 AM EST up reply actions  

Fixed
I don’t see anyone that would NOT be replaced by Darvish in seconds.

I agree with the statement, although I do think that Phil Hughes has upside and the Yankees have some prospects that are ML ready (David Phelps) or on the doorstep (Dellin Betances and Manny Banuelos). Colon and Garcia are free agents, although reports indicate that Garcia is likely to re-sign with the team. The point being that the Yankees aren’t going to nose dive if Darvish doesn’t post or if he does and another team outbids them.

I think the Nationals are playing for the World Series, but they’re not in “all-in” mode for 2012. And that’s the right posture to take at the moment, IMHO.

by d_c_guy on Nov 21, 2011 10:21 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree that the Nationals are going to get pilloried no matter what

Haters gonna hate, after all. I see nothing wrong with submitting a bid at a level that the Nationals feel comfortable with risking. If that doesn’t win, move on. If it does, start the negotiating from a position of relative strength. It’s almost literally a no risk proposition, because there’s no cost other than the bid preparation unless the team (1) wins the bidding process; and (2) signs the player.

by d_c_guy on Nov 21, 2011 10:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I agree

Rizzo “failed” in so many off-season big ticket moves last year that he was taken seriously even as he took flack. I think he takes his best shot and ignores the haterz.

by dc Roach on Nov 21, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

the Twins wanna steal a catcher back!!!

"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...

by cat daddy3000 on Nov 21, 2011 11:47 AM EST up reply actions  

Apparently, Twins' interim GM Terry Ryan

is not quite up to speed about how the system works.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 21, 2011 11:50 AM EST up reply actions  

or maybe there has been a trade that we don’t yet know about?! lol

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 21, 2011 3:50 PM EST up reply actions  

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