BJ Upton and the Nationals

I’m not trying to overvalue our prospects or anything. I’d give those guys up in a heartbeat if I thought Upton was worth much, but frankly I’m not sure he is. He sure looks like he’s been steadily regressing the last three seasons, which doesn’t give me a lot of hope for his future.

Derek Norris is definitely, eminently tradeable, though. I’d prefer the same deal, but Marrero instead of Moore and no ptbnl from our end…

But even with all of his flaws (and I’m no B.J. Upton fan), Upton is a solid ML player and right now better than anything the Nationals have in CF; he’s put up an fWAR of 4 or more in three of the last four seasons. Having Upton enables Werth to stay in RF (less wear and tear). And the market for CF candidates is rapidly shrinking. Hmmmm.

The problem is, any deal is for one year of Upton.

It’s not unreasonable, unlike most internet musings (“hey, how about we trade a boatload of crap for your diamond!”). With the current shortage of catchers, though, I’m not sure the Nationals would trade Norris for Upton rather than holding him for a trade for a pitcher.

First, thanks for stopping by, it is always nice to have polite fans from other community’s come by with a different perspective for trade suggestions. Obviously, sometimes this leads to truly awful offers, but I assume the real trade market is no worse. see, e.g. Braves to Royals offer regarding Prado/Jurrens for Cain/Myers.

Second, I think the value of BJ Upton is limited to the Nationals, and that likely we would do better to wait until next year or develop our own prospect. This is primarily because Upton does not really post the skill set that we should be seeking offensively. He has more power than we need and his OBP and BB rates aren’t great (not terrible, but not great). His defense is a similar boat; above average, but not great.

Third, I think the biggest problem with this trade is the extension that you mentioned. I find it unlikely that Upton would agree to a team friendly contract when he is only a year away from free agency. Given that, it seems stupid to give up any number of prospects for Upton. At the moment it seems much more palatable, because there such a lack of CFs, but the Nationals should not prioritize 2012 over 2013. If we want Upton, we might as well wait until the offseason. Especially since, I think it is unlikely that Tampa wants to pay his 3rd arbitration season salary. I think it is a fantasy to believe that Tampa would ever non-tender him, but I don’t think that we should offer that much for him. If Upton was willing to sign a team-friendly deal with Washinton, then I would consider it more.

I think both Norris and Moore are movable, though I think Norris is worth more than you are giving him credit here. He was a top-flight hitter in the AFL, and though some have dogged him for his .210 average in AA this year, I would point out he did that with a .367 OBP and a .254 BABIP. My guess is that Norris will be a key trade piece, but we’ll see. I could see the Nationals hanging on to him. Especially, if they move Flores, who seems to be unhappy as a backup given the hype that surrounded him once, and his current obliteration of the VWL. Moore does seem like a good candidate for the trade, given how clogged 1st is for us, and that he might not work out.

The final point, I’ll make is that I am not sure that the Nationals should be trying to fill CF with a veteran player. The skill set for CFs is not typically one that ages well, which is why so many CFs in thier 30’s become corner OFs. And we already have our vastly overpaid corner outfield veteran slot filled (and I am still optimistic that the Werth signing will be a positive after accounting for the overpay to bring a top free agent to a lower tier team). Since most FA are atleast 28, we might be looking for a new CF shortly.