Top hitting prospects: but where will they play?

*** This is part 1 of 2 --- I plan to do pitching in a separate fanpost!***

The Nationals find themselves in a unique position this off-season.

Thanks to one of the best draft hauls in baseball history last year, and more generally an increased emphasis on the farm system since Mike Rizzo took the helm, the Nationals have a stock of very adept prospects waiting in the wings.  Some of these prospects are either major league ready now, or will be in the next 1-2 years.  The farm system is far from the best in the league, but has improved drastically since 2009.  

At the same time, the organization appears ready to increase payroll over the next few years.  Washington has operated with a payroll in the bottom 10 of the league (23rd last year) since moving to DC, but most baseball analysts think the Washington market is capable of supporting a team with at least average payroll, and potentially more.

From a profitability standpoint, the Nationals have been very smart to put together a low payroll product while benefiting from a mid- to large-sized baseball market --- thanks to revenue sharing, the Nats ranked 3rd in operating income last year at $33.5 million.  All of that will change thanks to the the new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), which will now restrict revenue sharing to the 15 clubs with the smallest markets.  In short, "Big-market freeloaders such as the Washington Nationals will be on their own" (ouch!) thanks to the new CBA.  I would direct readers to Patrick Reddington's very thorough analysis of the implications of the new CBA on the Nats (http://www.federalbaseball.com/2011/11/25/2586650/washington-nationals-revenue-sharing-tv-deal-and-stan-kasten) for more on this.  Put simply, the Nats have a number of extra incentives to increase payroll at the major league level over the next few years, and the days of <$60 million payrolls appear to be over. 

The real question, then, is how these two strands will play out at the major league level.  That is, if the Nationals plan to increase payroll to around the $80-100 million level over the next several years, they won't be doing it with a lineup that features league-minimum contracts of recently called up prospects.  Clearly, not all of the prospects currently playing on the farm will end of donning curly W's, and will instead be traded for more advanced (but higher salary) major league talent.

Here are some of the big decisions the organization will have to make very soon with regard to hitting prospects:

1) 3B---Ryan Zimmerman, Anthony Rendon

Zimmerman (27), the face of the franchise since 2005 becomes a free agent at the end of the 2014 season.  At the same time, the Nationals drafted Antony Rendon (21) with the 6th pick in last years draft.  Rendon was arguably a #1 overall pick, but fell to the Nats at #6 due to some injury concerns.  Scouts project major offensive production from Rendon, and like Zimmerman in 2005, he is also very close to major league ready.

Rizzo announced following the draft that Rendon would play 3B (his natural position) at the minor league level, but one option would be to move him over to 2B.  The problem, there, of course is that the Nats already have a logjam in the middle infield with Espinosa, Desmond, and Lombardozzi...

By the end of the next year, the Nationals will have to make a huge decision.  They can either extend Ryan Zimmerman, which would probably cost on the order of $20/year for ~5-6 years, or let Rendon take over the reigns at 3B sometime between 2013-2014 and benefit from the 6 years of cheap team control they would get.

My guess: Zimmerman is still face of the franchise, and there is something to be said for having some continuity with star players (think Derek Jeter with the Yankees or David Wright with the Mets).  Not extending Zimmerman would look bad for the organization, even if that money were spend elsewhere.  I bet the Nats resign Zimmerman sometime over the next year for another 5 years (free agent in 2019), and think about either trading Rendon to make a huge playoff run, or moving him over to 2B and shopping other middle infielders.

2) Middle Infield---- Ian Desmond, Danny Espinosa, Steve Lombardozzi, Zach Walters, Jeff Kobernus (and Rendon?)

Ian Desmond (26) has been given 2+ seasons to show what he is capable of, and the results have thus far been mixed.  He has a career +3.9 offensive WAR, which unfortunately says more about his position (SS) than his real offensive value.  Desmond displays poor plate discipline, but does has some pop in his bat (22 career HR), and is a fairly adept base stealer (43 SB, 15 CS).  Defensively, he still makes too many errors, but compensates for it with above average range --- all in all, Desmond is about league average in the field.  At age 26, Desmond might yet improve (and his second half of 2011 was cause for hope), but his low OBP and average power are probably not going to change much.  That said, he was somewhat of a late bloomer offensively in the minor leagues, so maybe things will come together more than expected.  Desmond still provides value to the club, but is unlikely to be the piece that propels the club deep into the playoffs.  His salary will also rise over the next few years as he hits arbitration, which mitigates his value some.

Danny Espinosa (24) was arguably the NL ROY (highest WAR of any rookie last year), but his year was far from flawless.  Jeff Zimmerman of Fangraphs wrote a great article (http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/danny-espinosa-reasons-for-concern/) about how Espinosa is by no means a lock to be a valuable major league regular.  Espinosa strikes out way too often, and pitchers learned midway through the year that he struggles with high pitches.  Still, it should go without saying that Espinosa will be given every opportunity to stick with the Nationals over the next several years wherever he plays.  His excellent defensive play, versatility (Espinosa was a SS in the minor leagues, and many scouts think he is more valuable there), and 5 more years of team control make him an extremely valuable commodity.

Steve Lombardozzi (23) is another very sure-handed infielder, and scouts rave about his baseball smarts--- they constantly say that he makes the most out of his smallish frame.  Still, there is considerable debate as to whether he is anything more than a league-average player.  Lombardozzi does not have much true foot speed,  has only limited power, and only average (at best) plate discipline.  He does provide value defensively, as he won the Minor League Gold Glove for all second baseman at all levels last year.

Zach Walters (22) was obtained from the Diamondbacks in the trade for Jason Marquis last year, and is an intriguing middle infield prospect in that he is versatile---he's a shortstop with size, strength, power, a plus arm, average run [tool], and can switch hit.  Some scouts see him as a big league utility player; he’s already shown the ability to play second base, third base and shortstop.  Walters has some gap power but not enough to justify the +20% strikeout rate that he posted in 2011.  If he continues to improve, Walters could be a major-league regular, and might be able to contribute by 2014. 

Jeff Kobernus (23) was a second round pick in 2009, and some scouts think he might end up being a better hitter than Walters.  Kobernus gets knocked down for his lack of versatility. Of the two players, Kobernus has less pop in his bat and is a little to aggressive but he has better pure speed and more athleticism.

My guess: This is a really tricky one, and my broad prediction is that there will be significant turnover in the middle infield over the next few years.  I think the organization wants to wait until at least the trade deadline of next year to figure out what they have in Espinosa and Desmond.  That said, thanks to the bevy of talent in the middle infield, I think Desmond's days with the club are probably numbered.  My guess is that the organization will eventually move Desmond before the start of the 2013 season. Starting in 2013, then, Espinosa moves over to SS and Rendon takes over at 2B if the plan is to resign Zimmerman.  If the plan is to let Zimmerman walk in 2014, Rendon waits for the 3B opening, and perhaps Lombardozzi takes the reigns at 2B.  I'm really curious to see what they do with Lombardozzi--- I'm not convinced that he will be given a legitimate chance in Washington. 

3) Catcher --- Wilson Ramos and Derek Norris

Another NL ROY candidate, Wilson Ramos (24) more than justified Rizzo's 2010 trade by having successful freshman year with the big league club in 2011.  Ramos posted a 2.5 WAR---- he displayed decent power (15 HR, .445 SLG), average plate discipline, all the while posting a .267 average.  Defensively, Ramos also impressed and rated above average at the position.  With another 5 years of team control, his value to the team is tremendous.  Young, talented, and controllable catchers are hard to come by these days, and Ramos fits this bill perfectly.  There may continue to be some growing pains with Ramos--- he may have slightly over-performed last year based on his minor league pedigree--- but you can't imagine that he is going anywhere anytime soon.

Derek Norris (22) was considered the catcher of the future before Rizzo traded for Ramos, but that now seems to be seriously in doubt.  Norris is a bizarre case from a scouting standpoint--- he posted only a .210 average last year (3rd straight year of declining average) at AA, but his tremendous plate discipline and above average power continue to justify his ranking as a top 10 Nationals prospect.  His performance in the Arizona Fall League was also encouraging.  Defensively, scouts think Norris's receiving and game calling both need work, but he did throw out a tremendous 51% of runners last year.  Norris is not major league ready, and the Nationals will probably slow his development down some.  Still, he should be ready sometime in the 2013-2014 time frame, assuming he is able to reverse the trend of low batting averages in AA. 

My guess: This one seems pretty easy: Norris will not catch for the Nationals, and will likely be moved in a package for major-league talent sooner rather than later.  I don't think Rizzo wants to move Norris when his value is at a low point (keep in mind he was a top-100 prospect the last two years), but sometime in the next 1-2 years, Norris will be moved.

4) 1B --- Michael Morse, Adam LaRoche, Chris Marrero, and Tyler Moore

Everyone has heard of Michael Morse (29), who broke out last year as established himself as a talented major league regular.  The issue with Morse is that he is much better suited for 1B than LF--- not only were his defensive metrics in LF very poor last year, he also performed better with the bat when he was stationed at 1B.

Adam LaRoche (32) will try to resurrect his career following a lost 2011 in which he had major shoulder surgery.  LaRoche is the better defensive player compared to Morse, but perhaps not enough to justify moving Morse back to LF.  Owed another $8 million next year (along with a $1 milion buyout for 2013), LaRoche is also not cheap.  If he comes back next year healthy, LaRoche might justify a regular spot in the lineup and at 1B, but remember that there were concerns about declining peripheral stats before he signed the contract last year. 

Neither Chris Marrero (23) nor Tyler Moore (24) are considered top prospects.  Of the two, Marrero has more value due to his younger age, better plate discipline, and slowly improving stats at the minor league level.  Still, most scouts think that Marrero projects to nothing more than a below-average first basemen with only limited power.  Moore has more pop than Marrero (62 HR the last two years), but is considered a one-dimensional player with major deficiencies.

My guess: Barring some unexpected trade before the start of the season, I think the Nats (reluctantly) go with LaRoche at 1B and Morse in LF.  In an ideal world, Rizzo finds a taker for LaRoche and at least some part of his contract before the end of the 2011 year.  This would allow Morse to move back to 1B, opening a spot for a superior defensive player in LF, perhaps attainable via trade as a stop-gap solution before the likes of Bryce Harper, Bryan Goodwin, and Destin Hood knock on the door. Both Marrero and Moore are potential trade bait, with Marrero perhaps included in a trade exchange with a low-payroll team searching for a cheap 1B option. 

Outfield --- Jayson Werth, Michael Morse, Roger Bernadina, Free Agent(s)?, Bryce Harper, Brian Goodwin, Destin Hood, and Erik Komatsu

The Nationals quest for a center fielder continues this of-season, and all indications are that the organization will look to either free agency or a trade to get the right piece.  If the team cannot attain a center fielder, look for them to push Jayson Werth (32) to CF, and then find a stop-gap solution in RF.  Defensively, an outfield with Morse in LF and Werth in CF would leave much to be desired, but finding talented and affordable center fielders is never easy, and Rizzo won't break the farm system to acquire one.

Bryce Harper (19!) will likely start the year back at AA, but by all accounts will be ready to assume a corner outfield spot by 2012.  With Werth under contract until 2017, the Nationals have their corner outfield effectively set in stone for the period between about the middle of 2012 (when Harper will almost certainly be ready) to the 2014-2015 time frame (after which point Werth might be too old to contribute positively).

All of this should highlight the pressing need for a center fielder even more.  The Nationals drafted Brian Goodwin (21) with their supplemental pick in the 2011 draft, but he is years away from being major league ready, and there are also concerns that he might have to shift over a corner outfield spot due to his good, but not great, speed.  Erik Komatsu (24), acquired in the trade that sent Jerry Hairston Jr. to the Brewers, is not considered a major prospect, and is a long-shot to contribute to the big league club.  The Nationals do have Roger Bernadina (27) under team control for the next few years, but he is nothing more than a 4th/5th outfielder with limited outfield production. 

Destin Hood (21) really started to put things together last year at A+, and many scouts are projecting him to shoot up prospect rankings next year as he moves up to AA.  Hood might be major league ready by the 2013-2014 time frame, but he will have to play at a corner outfield spot.  

My guess: This is hard to predict because so much relies on how Rizzo solves the center field vacuum this offseason.  The one thing I will say is that I suspect that the Nationals will --- if they aren't already --- be in the market for a rent-a-corner-outfielder at some point in the next year or two.  Even if Rizzo finds his center fielder, Morse will likely be moved back to 1B after the team either waits out LaRoche's contract or finds a taker.  That would, of course, open a spot in the corner outfield until Harper arrives with gusto sometime in the 2012 season. 

To summarize, here are the hitters that might be traded to acquire more proven major league talent, in the order in which I think this is possible:

1. Derek Norris

2.  Ian Desmond

3. Steve Lombardozzi

4. Chris Marrero

5. Anthony Rendon

6. Destin Hood