Scott Boras Pitches Prince Fielder On MLB Network Radio. Are The Washington Nationals Really Interested?
Super agent Scott Boras didn't want to talk about any particular negotiations between his client, 27-year-old first baseman Prince Fielder, and any particular team during an appearance on MLB Network Radio this afternoon, but he did essentially pitch the free agent to any interested franchises. The Brewers' '02 1st Round pick finished his seven-year career with Milwaukee with a .282/.390/.540 career slash and a 162-game average of 32 doubles, 37 HR's and 106 RBI's. Fielder's 5.5 WAR in 2011 was the second-highest of his career behind only 2009's +6.4 WAR. It's not difficult to sell teams on the slugger, but it's Scott Boras' job to get Fielder the best possible deal. According to reports yesterday by FOXSports.com reporter Ken Rosenthal and his colleague Jon Morosi the Nationals are one of several teams that have expressed interest in Fielder with Mr. Morosi identifying the Nats, Cubs, Rangers and Mariners as potential suitors. Here's what those teams are likely hearing from Boras when they inquire about Fielder:
Scott Boras: "When you have franchise-changing players at a young age, this opportunity for both ownership and for general managers is rare. I would have to say the next potential 27-year-old slugger that will be on the market might be [the Marlins' Mike] Stanton five years from now..."
Scott Boras: "To have someone at that age, that young, with that kind of ability...And you also have to remember too, that these players are so valuable, because normally when you're signing a 29 or 30-year-old free agent, even by management standards, their idea of premium is to that 36-year-old, or 35-year-old level, you're getting 5-6 years of an eight-year deal.
"When you have this 27-year-old player who has performed at, frankly, [Albert] Pujols' levels, from the ages of 22-26, he actually has more HR's than Pujols, but when you have someone performing at that level and is that young, we just don't see them very often. So the idea of clubs catering to their board and saying, 'We have an opportunity to put a fixture in our organization that we won't have an opportunity to gain unless we develop it internally, and/or there is a trade,' and I can't recall other than [Mark] McGwire the last time a prominent slugger was traded at a young age. So you're really looking at a rare opportunity for teams.
"I think that these are ownership decisions. There are certainly owners who come out and meet with us and talk to us about their franchise and go through things. We're rather methodical about this. The player wants to hear as much information as he can and certainly Prince wants to make a good decision for he and his family.
"So the idea of it is, it's not the matter of how many teams, it's obvious that there's a lot of teams that when they sign these players it could make a dramatic difference. In Milwaukee, they're drawing three million fans. There's a reason for that. And I think the dynamic of that is something the owners look to and they understand that they can get a player in their system for a long time that is a core. So, it's really something I think that owners have to evaluate as they go through it. Then they instruct their general managers, and a lot of times they like to put other pieces together before they make that decision."
FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that his source said though Fielder is Washington's "primary" target, the Nats', "Talks with Fielder hit a significant roadblock on Monday." No details as to what caused said roadblock unfortunately. The rumored asking price is expected to be somewhere around 8-years/$200 million. If the Nationals believe Fielder is the player that Boras is selling, Adam LaRoche's one-year deal probably wouldn't be much of an impediment. The injury to young first base prospect Chris Marrero wouldn't likely affect such a decision either way. Will the Nats give out that big a deal a year after giving Jayson Werth 7-years/$126M?
Do you want to give Fielder eight years? Is it fair to judge the player based on his father's career? Cecil hit anywhere from 28 to 51 HR's over a seven-year stretch from 1990-96 when he was 26-to-32 years old, but he was out of the game by 34. Prince, statistically, is a better hitter than his father was, with similar patience and power. The team that signs Prince might regret those last few years, but as his agent said, "... normally when you're signing a 29 or 30-year-old free agent, even by management standards, their idea of premium is to that 36-year-old, or 35-year-old level, you're getting 5-6 years of an eight-year deal." Are the Nats willing to make the same gamble they did with Werth with Fielder?
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I wonder what the top line is for the "pro-Prince" camp
How much is too much? Is 8 years/$200 million too much ($25 million/year)? If so, at what level below that does signing Prince become acceptable? If that’s not too much, where is the “too much” line?
This is why I’m agnostic on whether the Nationals sign Fielder (I’d love to have his bat in the lineup, I’m just concerned about keeping the rest of the team going) and am generally against the “sign everyone” mentality so common in fans. It’s great for winning offseasons, but it rarely works on the field. See, e.g., the Redskins for the past 12+ years in general and the Eagles 2011 in particular in the NFL and the Mets and Cubs in general and the 2011 Red Sox in particular in MLB.
Of course,
my “sign Fielder” mantra is vastly different from “sign everyone”. In fact, my thinking has been, really, “sign Fielder, a couple of bench pieces, and be done with it.” Harper will do fine in the OF, and Lannan will work perfectly well as a 5th starter ‘till the Purkes and Solis’ of the world are ready.
Is $200M a lot of money? Yes indeed! But for a guy that is just 6 years into a career that tracks as a HoFer, it’s not outrageous.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
For 2/3 of what he's asking, I'd sign Wilson.
As for Prince, I’d sign him for 6/$140MM
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
Somehow I doubt that.
He’d get at least $11M in arbitration just this coming year. It’s not likely he’d sign an 8-year deal for that amount of money + < 5% COTA.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
true, it would certainly cost more to have him play in D.C.
$100 million is his floor, not his ceiling
C.J Wilson is not Prince Fielder.
For one thing, he can only impact a fifth as many games – so even asking for half that, to my mind, is asking quite a lot. That’s not even taking into account the fact that he’s not as good at baseball as Prince.
whoa.. whoa..
I don’t care if you think Fielder is more valuable ballplayer than Wilson. He is. I’d like to address your reasoning, however. Wilson faced 915 batters last year, far more than any Nat (Lannan faced 808). Fielder stepped up to bat 692 times last year. Add the fact that Fielder gets to lean at balls every now and then on defense, and their opportunity to affect the game over the course of the year is not all that disparate.
The problem isn't that Fielder isn't talented, but instead that he might not be reliable
If the Nationals sign Fielder, and he flops or only provides medicore years like he did in ‘06, ’08, and ’10, then we are in serious trouble. The Nationals need to be able to afford the increase in player salaries that we’ll see when Strasburg, Zimmermann, Ramos, and Espinosa hit arbitration. We’ll need that and to still be able sign free agents (mostly small role player contracts) to fill gaps that arise in every team.
If the Nationals can afford a peak payroll of $120 million, then I think it would be fine. At $105 or less, I think we run into problems. And I don’t think that any of us know what the future salary of the Nationals is.
Other contract kung fu options, pay a large signing bonus to have a reduced year to year expenditure. (We’ll call this the AL retirement trade plan). He gets 8 years $185 million, but gets $20 million up front (which can then be invested for his own gain to make up the money). This means that the Nationals might be able to move Fielder later in his career to an AL team where he can DH, if his defense falls off earlier than his hitting. With a standard back-loaded contract this become much more difficult (However, the overall cost to the team maybe greater as they could have used both inflation and investment to cut the cost).
This 27-year-old player who has performed at ... Pujols' levels.
Do you think that Scott Boras has to pratice these lines?
A quick review of WAR:
Pujols- 10 seasons 87.8 WAR, average WAR- 8.78
Fielder- 6 seasons 23.4 WAR, average WAR- 3.9
Fielder is roughly 50% of Pujols, which makes since given that Pujols can play both offense and defense. This is not to say that Pujols is the better buy. He is older, and he’ll likely get a larger contract. But that sentence was just laughable.
by chubias on Nov 29, 2011 5:29 PM EST reply actions 6 recs
rec'd for truthiness and evidence.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Nov 29, 2011 5:45 PM EST up reply actions
Nailed it
Pujols is a monster. Career 1.000+ Ops against both lefties and righties. Prince has a sub .800 OPS against lefties. They just aren’t close to equal value.
And not that I have watched a ton of Brewers games, but I’d much rather face Prince Fielder than Ryan Braun……..ever. It never seemed like Prince was the big hit guy.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
RBIs are a team-based stat, remember.
They’re almost entirely dependent on whether you have other guys on base when you hit.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
So is "getting big hits"
Hard to get a lot of big-time hits if nobody’s ever on base in front of you.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Nah.
A homer’s a big hit regardless of how many runs score. Or rather is dependent on what the effect is on the lead. A one-run homer is more important with a 1-run lead than it is when you’re down by 8.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
No one is Pujols but don't underestimate Prince
It’s not entirely fair to compare a 27-year-old, just entering his mature years as a ballplayer, with a fully grown man who is acknowledged to be the best player in baseball. Even Boras, if you press him, will admit that he’s comparing the potential of a star player to the accomplishments of one of the all-time greats.
And Ryan Braun is an excellent hitter – who benefitted from hitting directly in front of Prince Fielder. I hope he continues to do as well as he did this year but he won’t see nearly as many good pitches next year.
Not a “big hit guy”? You’re right, you didn’t see many Brewers games. Even if you only watched the playoffs, Prince demonstrated that it was a mistake to pitch to him after Braun got on.
As far as down years? Prince is 27. He will achieve more consistency over the next few years. And most teams could use a guy who has a .401 OBP and hits 32 HR in a down year.
by NLEasterner on Nov 30, 2011 10:48 AM EST up reply actions
It's the more walks than K's that really have me interested.
Patience + Power works for me.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:04 PM EST up reply actions
Prince Fieler is a talented player, but he has never been Pujols
Even comparing pre-age 28 seasons, Pujols still outprouced Fielder.
Partly because Pujols is the second best pure hitter ever
and partly because Pujols is more than likely 2-3 years older than his listed age.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Based on what?
and partly because Pujols is more than likely 2-3 years older than his listed age
This has been thrown around for years, without any documentation.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
This is just Bora$ off-gassing prior to the Winter Meetings
If Fielder was repped by somebody else, he wouldn’t even be linked with the Nationals’ at this point by the national press, based on need. It’s purely ‘guilt by association’ at this point; Boras has seven other clients with the Nats, therefore Fielder will sign with the Nats.
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
Trust me.
The Nationals NEED a bashing first baseman. Fielder fits perfectly well in the Nats’ lineup this year and for the next several years.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
The only teams that don't need Fielder are pretty much the Yankees, Redsox, Reds, and whoever signs Pujols.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Fielder: Big Salary; Big Appetite
Tell me if you really think that Fielder will be able to maintain weight and flexibility with any mega long-term contract? I think not. In fact, to whomever signs him, I would expect 50 pounds over his today playing weight. And a guy with no class in telling Brewers fans “I am out of here” during the pennant drive, says a lot about individualism.
Two long termers with Werth and Fielder, is a sign of future doom.
I like the Tampa model and would so avoid another big time free agent.
I definitely DON'T want the Nats to go with "the Tampa model"
The folks in Tampa go with “the Tampa model” out of necessity, not because they want to. It’s not that they don’t want big-name players, it’s that they can’t afford big-name players. The Nats CAN afford big-name players, and there’s really no doubt that big-name players help teams win championships (i.e. that teams that spend on players tend to win more games).
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
That said, the Yankees/Red Sox model is ALSO not the way to go.
I’m a fan of the Atlanta model, m’self, if we’re going to compare ourselves to other teams. Develop what you can, trade for prospects in projected future holes, and sign FAs to fill holes that your prospects can’t fill yet and for a little extra leadership.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
Well, yeah.
The chop is far too Southern for DC nowadays. We’ll probably end up creating a modified version of “Hail to the Redskins” or something silly like that.
Or just make “Take On Me” the official Nats fight song.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
In my opinion, we learn from the Werth contract
…and DON’T go after Fielder.
I’m leery of guys who put up monster years going into free agency (and YES, I know Fielder had some wildly good years prior to last year, too). Werth went from his best year to his worst once we signed him. Would we be happy if Fielder put up 32 HR, 83 RBI, .261 BA, 138 SO, and a WAR of 2.7 for the next couple of years (as he did in 2010), and likely worse once he hits his 30s? To me, that might be a best-case scenario. Now, I’d be willing to have the team pay SOMETHING for that, but not the dollars that are being thrown around here and other places.
RobBob, I await your rebuttal. :-)
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
A minor quibble, prior to RobBob's more detailed rebuttal :-)
To me, that might be a best-case scenario.
How can that be a best case scenario, when he’s substantially exceeded the 2.7 WAR level in three of the past four seasons and is only 27 years old.
Agreed.
But still, that scenario’s not exactly the worst-case scenario on the list either. As someone who still somewhat likes the Os…REMEMBER ALBERT BELLE.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
I said "best-case" scenario based on my (not extensively-researched)
opinion that ballplayers who perform particularly well before they sign the big contract tend toward complacency and underperfomance once they’ve signed the contract. Of course, my position is mostly based on what I recall off the top of my head, including Werth, obviously, and guys like Belle, Haynesworth, Fitzpatrick, Arenas, etc.
If I had the time and inclination, I guess I’d try to do some real research on before/after comparisons for guys signing fat contracts.
I suppose I’d also throw in that, with respect to Fielder, I’m very leery of his weight (ESPECIALLY once he signs the big contract), and as I’ll bet most of you know, it only gets harder to keep the weight off as you get older. And while he may be 27 in calendar years, his body is older than that.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Let me just add one more thing.....
The obvious underlying premise here is that ballplayers often perform exceptionally well in their contract year precisely because they are motivated by the big payday, to the point where that motivation results in a real uptick in their play.
If you’re playing a game for a living, with all the extra benefits that go along with that, and you need to be motivated by nine-figure contracts because seven or eight figures won’t suffice, well then, I think that’s a problem. And certainly, you take that particular motivation away when you offer the big contract.
So the problem is then whether the player finds some other motivation. Anyone motivated to play their best primarily because of the money is, IMO, less likely to find a substitute motivation once they’re burning $100 bills to light their Havanas.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Well, many big-contract players have TWO motivations to play hard. At least.
Money, and winning a championship. But once they have one WS ring…
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
It's easy to come up with examples to support the theory
but nevertheless I’m pretty sure the theory doesn’t really hold water. There are lots of guys who go on to produce big time after signing a big contract. Take ARod, for example, after the huge signing in 2001. He went to Texas and produced a nice fat 8.0 WAR — which may have been considered a bit of a letdown after 2000’s 11.0 WAR — but it was still beastly, and he produced an average of 8.0 WAR during his three years with the Rangers. There was no complacency, though people opined in 2001 that 2000’s giant year was just a contract push and that he was only-interested-in-money-not-the-team, etc. etc.
If anything, I would suspect that player who stumbles the season after making the big deal does so not out of complacency, but because they are trying too hard. I’m almost 100% certain this is the case with Werth, for example. I think he heard a lot of talk about how he was vastly overpaid, and he came to DC with a notion that he wanted to prove he was worth the contract by trying to carry the team. That sort of thing tends to backfire, and it’s only when Werth (or any player in this sort of situation) gets the feel of truly becoming part of the team that he becomes truly valuable.
The real reason I suspect that the theory doesn’t hold water is that such a phenomenon would be easily proved, and teams would know about it, and those big contracts would not exist.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Used lunchtime to see if anyone else had done any research
I found one study, anyway, from a University of Iowa econ professor that suggests there is a link between signing a free agent contract and subsequently performing worse:
http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2009/december/120809freeagentshirk.html
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
and the actual paper itself.....
http://newsroom.depaul.edu/PDF/Krautmann_Solow_DynamicsOfPerformance.pdf
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Only read the summary, but:
But Solow, an economics professor in the Tippie College of Business, said the drop-off is not as great as fans might think. And whatever disincentives the player might face early in the contract, performance increases as the player starts thinking about his next free agent deal, eventually peaking in the so-called walk year of the contract.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
So, big distinction is whether a contract
is a 2 year contract or, say, a 6 year contract. shorter contracts = greater incentive to do well.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Yeah. But also whether it's the last long-term contract or the second-to-last.
Fielder is 28 next year. Give him a six-year deal, he’s 34 going on 35 when it ends. If he’s still healthy, he can probably get another 2/3 year deal.
I’d worry about Pujols on this more than Fielder.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
I'm concerned that Reyes has CYS (Contract Year Syndrome); not Fielder
Reyes’s 2011 was completely out of whack with his recent career track. Fielder has already had seasons that were just as good as 2011 or even slightly better (in 2007 and 2009).
There are several differences between Werth and Fielder
1. Werth was picked up directly following standard peak years (27-30).
2. Fielder is only entering his peak years; he’ll turn 28 next season.
3. When the Nationals signed Werth, they were a 70 win team, after finishing dead last for the previous 2 years. All other things being equal, players prefer to play on winning teams, so bad teams pay extra for good players.
4. Now, the Nationals are an 80-win team, with a host of top prospects and young players. They are as good or better than the other teams competing for Fielder’s services. Therefore, we may have leverage to get a very slight discount over say Seattle.
Although I agree with you that Fielder might flop, but I don’t agree that we should always avoid the big free agent market.
Here's my curveball
I will address the Werth side of the argument rather than the Fielder side.
I am not at all ready to concede Werth’s contract as a bust based upon one year. No, Werth didn’t overwhelm, but he wasn’t terrible either (and there were a lot worse $10M players out there last year). Furthermore, I would not be surprised if he didn’t have a MUCH better second year as a National. It would not shock me to see him put up a 5+ WAR next year, for example, and I really am expecting it to be above 4. Werth’s OPS+ the last five years: 120, 121, 129, 144, 97. I tend to believe the 97 was a blip, and that he’ll again be in the 120+ OPS+ range.
If he’s not, then I suppose next off-season we can talk about whether the contract is an official bust.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Honestly, all I think that Werth needs are consistency of role and someone else to be leadership too.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
I certainly hope you're right about Werth
I’m hoping we see a new man next spring.
I’m just not holding my breath.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Expect him to be better.
Don’t expect him to be ridiculously better. Based on those numbers from RobBob, I’m expecting an OPS+ of 110-120.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
Well yes, but it's good enough for me not to consider the contract a bust.
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
It's a long time until ST
so I’d advise against holding your breath…
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

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