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Will Yu Or Won't Yu? Washington Nationals Have Scouted Yu Darvish, Will He Jump To MLB?

The will he or won't he posting drama with Yu Darvish ended in October last Fall with a post on the then-24-year-old right-hander's own site in which he refuted rumors which had him headed for the Majors after a 2010 season in which he'd gone (12-8) in 26 games, 25 starts and 202.0 IP in which he walked 47 (2.09 BB/9), struck out 222 (9.89 K/9) and posted a sub-2.00 ERA for the fourth straight season as a starter for the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters. NBP Tracker's Patrick Newman translated the blog post in which Darvish made his intentions clear:

"Things are being said about the Majors.

I’ve received a lot of comments on my blog and Twitter, but I don’t know if everyone’s predictions are on the mark or what.

Next year…

I’ll be wearing a Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters uniform."

Star-divide

New York Daily News' writer David Lennon wrote on Twitter (@DPLennon) at the time that, "Yu Darvish bailed on jump to MLB this year because getting divorced. Plans to come to U.S. for '12 season." Darvish remained in Japan, going (18-6) on the season in 2011 with 10 complete games, six shutouts, a 1.44 ERA, 276 K's (10.71 K/9), 36 walks (1.40 BB/9), 5 HR's and 42 runs (37 ER) allowed in 28 starts and 232.0 IP. Throughout the season the rumors persisted, however, most of which had the now-25-year-old starter finally making the leap.

As recently as this weekend, FOXSports.com's Jon Morosi wrote in an article entitled, "Uncertainty persists over star pitcher Darvish", that, "One source with close knowledge of Darvish’s thinking said Friday afternoon it remains 'more likely than not,'" that he'll make the move this winter. As Mr. Morosi pointed out, however, from beginning to end, the posting process took six weeks for Daisuke Matsuzaka when he posted in 2006 which would have Darvish agreeing on a deal in mid-January if he were to start the process today.

One possible explanation for the delay in a decision, oddly enough, might once again be Darvish's impending divorce. In an article by USA Today's Paul White entitled, "Divorce may delay Yu Darvish's major league arrival," Mr. White reported that though no one involved would comment, it's widely known, "That Darvish, 25, and his actress wife Saeko, 27, are involved in divorce proceedings."

SI.com's Joe Lemire too writes in an article entitled, "Darvish could be a star in U.S. -- if he decides to leaves Japan", that, "... it is thought Darvish is more likely than not to post this offseason." Mr. Lemire also quotes current Dodgers' bench coach Trey Hillman, who managed Darvish in Japan, describing, "... his celebrity as a mix of 'Fonzie and Elvis Presley,'" and predicting that Darvish will eventually end up in the majors.

One other sort-of development. The Toronto Blue Jays, whose GM traveled to Japan to see Darvish this past summer, are reportedly "lukewarm" in their interest according to Toronto Sun writer Bob Elliot who wrote on Monday in an article entitled, "Jays target closer Bell", that, "Jays' president Paul Beeston is not a fan of the current posting system in place," and thus less interested than had previously been speculated. Nats' GM Mike Rizzo confirmed earlier this winter that the Washington Nationals' scouts had watched Darvish pitch this season though he hasn't seen him in person in the last two years.

"Yu Darvish, specifically, is a player that has a great talent level," Rizzo told reporters late in October, "We've scouted him over the years, I've scouted him personally over the years, our pro scouts have scouted him this year specifically." The Nationals have also expressed interest in free agent pitchers Mark Buehrle and Roy Oswalt this winter, and with the Winter Meetings coming up next week, the indecision on Darvish's part might cause teams in need of pitching to think twice about spending big money on pitching before the Japanese right-hander declares his intentions.

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And this...

@SI_JonHeyman: baseball execs are wondering whether yu darvish will ever post. be patient, says source. says likely to happen in 2 weeks

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 8:00 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

in 2 weeks

Ok lets see what happens in couple of weeks. If they haven’t signed another starter by then, we might have a shot at him.

http://unklewheezdcsportsfan.blogspot.com

by Danyon Rome on Nov 30, 2011 9:06 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm coming around on Darvish

After watching some film on him, he looks pretty damn good and is only 27. Still he’s a riskier proposition than either Oswalt or Buerhle. Perfect world to me would be Darvish and Oswalt.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Nov 30, 2011 11:25 AM EST reply actions  

I'd prefer Buerhle to Oswalt. Not as injury-prone.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Nov 30, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

I'd prefer Buerhle too

But he’ll command more money and more years than Oswalt and I doubt they could get both of them.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Nov 30, 2011 1:14 PM EST up reply actions  

He's only 25 actually.

And I agree, he’s very impressive.

by Expos 4ever on Nov 30, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Yu don't know spit !!!

Throw a coin in the air. “The Waiting is the Hardest Part” thanks Tom, thx…

by Berndaddy on Nov 30, 2011 12:07 PM EST reply actions  

Playing the "What-If" Game....How Good Does He HAVE To Be?

I also remember Chapman being built up this high…..to the point that I was probably more disappointed that we didn’t sign him, than if we don’t sign Yu. I also remember Hideki Irabu vividly, although I wince and regret bringing up his name due to his personal tragedy. However, the point being that a LOT of money will be needed to get Yu, and in the event that he fails, would seem to set a team back in an enormous fashion. However, I agree that if he is as successful as advertised, his presence would be stupendous, and added to our already young core of pitchers, would certainly put the Nationals rotation in that 1990’s Atlanta Braves neighborhood. Even if he is as good as Hideo Nomo, who was fantastic for four or five years of his MLB career, would he be worth the money? Does he have to be Randy Johnson good? Just HOW good does he HAVE to be, to be WORTH what it will take “totally” to sign him? And is he…..THAT good? I don’t mind the Nationals buying a true Rolls Royce…..but to pay Rolls Royce money for a Chevy?

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 30, 2011 12:23 PM EST reply actions  

Agreed on it being a huge risk...

What it boils down to for me, is that we know the Nats have scouted him pretty extensively, if their vaunted front office decides he’s a no. 3 (or 1-2) starter behind Zimmermann and Strasburg then you go for it, if they see him as anything less there’s no way it’s worth the risk. I know a lot of folks throw out the “He’s pitching against Double-A level hitters,” but if the Nats had a 25-year-old in Double-A dominating like he has he’d be in the majors this year.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:29 PM EST up reply actions  

For the kind of money it will take, wouldn’t he have to be better than Zimmermann? And maybe even good enough to be the Ace in our rotation? It will certainly take “Ace” type of dollars to get him….wouldn’t you agree? Now, having said that, if he is as good as our Front Office seems to think (and I would trust our guys moreso than most teams), then I’d say fly over there and talk him into it today! If that is legal. lol

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 30, 2011 12:36 PM EST up reply actions  

No, not necessarily.

Thing is, Strasburg and Zimmermann are both worth MORE once they hit true FA status. They’re just (relatively) cheap now because they haven’t hit arb yet.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Nov 30, 2011 12:40 PM EST up reply actions  

A talent on par or better with Zimmermann, yes.

Don’t want to compare him to Stras, though. I don’t think he’s going to get “Ace” money (as in $15-20M a year after the posting fee, which is why some argue he could be better of waiting a year. After a team pays $30-$50M for the posting fee, the rumors I’m hearing is that he’d get a 4-5-year/$50-55M dollar deal, $11M per-ish.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:42 PM EST up reply actions  

And by "hearing" I mean "reading"...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

And he'd have to stay two more years to become a FA...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:49 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd pay that for him if he's a #3 on this team.

As long as he could be an ace for a team that doesn’t have one.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Nov 30, 2011 12:46 PM EST up reply actions  

That's what's had me thinking it's a good idea all along...

That top 3 with the pitchers here now and on the way seems like it would be strong for the next 4-5 years while the Nats think they’re going to start making noise. And not giving up a draft pick is big.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 12:50 PM EST up reply actions  

Well, if you want to not give up a draft pick, you only need to ignore Wilson.

I’d be just as happy with Buehrle.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Nov 30, 2011 12:53 PM EST up reply actions  

True of course...not giving up a pick is just an added bonus..

And Buehrle’s definitely more or a sure thing if there is such a thing. Also 8 years older though.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 1:08 PM EST up reply actions  

Nobody should really be compared to Stras,

except Verlander and King Felix.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Nov 30, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions  

We do have a number of pitching prospects on the way

so Darvish might not be the best choice for us. I realize that a number of those prospects could fail. However, assuming one of Purke, Solis, Ray, Cole, Peacock, Meyers or Milone, can develop into a legitimate 3, then spending on Darvish is less from filling a keey need and more based continued improvement. Hopefully, this will help prevent the Nationals from significantly overbidding.

by chubias on Nov 30, 2011 1:51 PM EST reply actions  

A couple of years ago...

We were SURE that at least one of Stammen, Mock, Chico, Martin, Martis, Ballester, and about twelve other guys would make it. We got Zimmermann, it’s true, but with his injury we could easily have not gotten him back.

The lesson is that it’s not a good idea to pass on a guy who might help just to keep room open for a prospect.

by rarumberger on Nov 30, 2011 2:08 PM EST up reply actions  

More precisely, they were laughing at Jim Bowden for thinking that.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Nov 30, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Doghouse says, "BOWDEN!!!"

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Nov 30, 2011 3:29 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

[Shakes fist]

"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)

by Doghouse on Dec 1, 2011 12:43 PM EST up reply actions  

A couple of years ago we didn't have a single worthwhile starter.

And we rushed pitchers to the big-leagues. Now we have more time to perfect and rework prospects. Plus, we have less need of pitchers overall.

I am not saying don’t sign him. I am saying don’t to be desperate to sign him. I think another team like the Yankees or Blue Jays are more in need of star pitching.

by chubias on Nov 30, 2011 4:31 PM EST up reply actions  

I still say that 100+ Mil

Is a lot of money for such a risky proposition….if he fails, the Nats have him AND Werth still on the contract, each making 20mil per season (estimates that it will take over 100mil total to get Yu for 4 or 5 years, equals an average of over 20mil per season). Do we want 40+ Mil per season tied up in Werth and Yu, especially if Yu ends up being mediocre at best? No, the estimated 50mil will not be spead out over that time frame, but it still has to be included as an overall cost for that player. I vote to pass…..spend that money on proven players, and let someone else the risk.

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Nov 30, 2011 9:01 PM EST reply actions  

?

I’m not sure what you mean by this. The “per year expense” is in fact greater. If you are saying that he’ll be easier to trade because yearly salary will be lower later, then (1) that’s small comfort, the team has already wasted a ton of cash on him, and (2) it doesn’t matter anyway, the team can always offer to pay part of the salary of a guy they are trading.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Nov 30, 2011 10:53 PM EST up reply actions  

That is exactly the point I was trying to make…..it doesn’t matter if you pay the posting fee, and his entire salary up front; it still averages out as “something” per year invested in the player. If he is “mediocre” then that means the Nats wasted 50mil+ in posting fee alone! And if he is traded before his 5 years is up, that actually increases the per year average….ESPECIALLY if the Nats were to eat some of the contract. I’m not a math wiz, which is a reason I stay away from the sabermetric arguments (and the reason I am suffering in my Research Design class….lol), but I think I get this one. I’d rather see the Nats “invest” that 20mil per year in a proven player like Fielder who is on the field every day. I’m just wincing at the probability that we would pay Roy Halladay money (per year average) to get an unproven pitcher. I obviously would not be upset with getting him, because I do trust our experts in the FO…..but I do think it is a bit risky.

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Dec 1, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

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