Can The Washington Nationals Find A Starter And Center Fielder On International Market? Yu Darvish, Yoenis Cespedes Rumors.
by Patrick Reddington on Nov 7, 2011 5:32 PM EST
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So what if I told you that the Washington Nationals could fill their two biggest stated needs, a front-end starter and a leadoff/center fielder, without losing any prospects or draft picks? Impossible? No. Expensive? Yes. But the Nats' name has been mentioned this winter in connection to two players who could potentially provide exactly what they're looking to add to their 2012 roster. The catch? Neither player has much experience against major league competition and all the usual deep-pocketed suspects are involved in the conversation as well. Another problem? The Nats seem to think they can compete with the NL East elite this season, and adding two inexperienced (in terms of MLB competition) players to an already-young roster might not be the thing that gets them to the next level. Then again, the two players being talked about are 25 and 26, respectively, and coming off record-setting seasons in their respective leagues...
The two players, of course, are Nippon-Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish and Cuban-born outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. Raise your hand if you heard Cespedes' name before around midnight last night? Liars...
I watched the last World Baseball Classic and I don't recall the 26-year-old center fielder's name sticking out. Washington Post reporter Adam Kilgore wrote about the Nationals' interest in Cespedes this morning in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Cuban defector Yoenis Cespedes on the Nationals’ radar", after both Baseball Prospectus' Kevin Goldstein and Yahoo!Sports.com's Jeff Passan posted stories and a video (since removed, hope you didn't miss it, it was odd/epic) on the so-called "second-best" player in Cuba just after midnight last night.
Cespedes hit 33 HR's in 90 games last season in Cuba, a league-record according to the promotional video and the Washington Post's Mr. Kilgore. The outfielder held a workout session for scouts last week with the WaPost's Mr. Kilgore noting that "multiple Nationals talent evaluators" were in attendance. "'We know a lot about him,'" a "team official" tells the reporter. The Nationals remained under the radar for the most part before turning up as one of the runners-up if not the next team in line behind the Cincinnati Reds in the Aroldis Chapman market two winters back. D.C. GM Mike Rizzo told reporters recently that he himself had scouted the other big name that may or may not be available this winter, Yu Darvish.
"We've scouted him over the years," Rizzo told reporters two weeks back in an update on the Nationals' plans, "I've scouted him personally over the years, our pro scouts have scouted him this year specifically. We've scouted the whole Japanese Professional League as well as every other international league that plays organized baseball. As we've always said, we're open to acquire talent in any way, shape or form that we can, and if it's international talent, we're certainly willing to acquire international players."
Yahoo!Sports.com's Jeff Passan (on the Twitter (@JeffPassan), cited his colleague Tim Brown as the source of a list of teams that are reportedly interested in Yoenis Cespedes: "The full list of Yoenis Cespedes suitors from @TBrownYahoo: Yankees, Phillies, Marlins, Blue Jays, Giants, Nationals, Indians, A's, Pirates." Oddly enough, MLB.com's Bill Ladson (@washingnats) wrote about the last and first big international free agent signing by the Nats this morning as well. "#Nats RHP Yunesky Maya has a sore right elbow, but the injury is not considered serious. He is currently playing for Criollos de Caguas."
The Nationals signed Maya in July of 2010, inking the then-28-year-old right-hander to a 4-year/$8M dollar deal in what Mike Rizzo described then as the Nats' "first major international signing." The returns thus far (1-4, 5.23 ERA, 4.40 FIP, 4.13 K/9, 2.76 BB/9 in 15 G, 10 GS, 58.2 IP) have been underwhelming to say the least. Can a team that sees itself as being close-to-competitive risk investing in players as talented but unproven as Yu Darvish and Yeonis Cespedes at this point in the organization's development, or should they invest in more proven talent that might not have as much upside but could provide them with what they need to take the next step? Darvish could cost close to $100M if he ever is posted. $30M is the number being thrown around with Cespedes. It's only money...
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Wait a minute...
Maya reportedly has a sore pitching elbow, but is playing through it in Winter Ball? Not like he’s a critical part of the WSH rotation in 2012, but WTF? He’s still on the 40-man roster – “Paging Mr. Rizzo, Mr. Mike Rizzo; Please pick up courtesy line #2”.
If he is out for the year for TJ surgery, he comes off the 40-man, right?
Just saying…
"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant
by The Herndon Kid on Nov 7, 2011 7:17 PM EST up reply actions
What? You don't think applying ice and some native linament of indeterminant origin and
contents list will do the trick?
Gah…I see a trip to see Dr. James Andrews or Dr. Yokum in Maya’s immediate future.
"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011
TJ & a trip to Alabama
might be a stretch at this point, but I’d like to see Rizzo step in & shut him down.
maybe he's had it for a while...
and he’ll come back a better pitcher after TJ.
…. optimistic
Ian Desmond is my hero!
Native linament of indeterminant origan and contents etc etc and so on... LOL! Ha ! Go MissB Go !
HA ! Next we can speculating that he’s gone all voodoo on his arm and cut up a live chicken and sprayed his elbow with it while throwing rum in a semi-circle chanting to the saint de jour. Oye, I’m writing this while I’m crossing myself and throwing salt over my left shoulder. I guess I’m just tracing the number four in air and seasoning the ground again.
It is like when parents intentionally get their kids the Chicken Pox
“He is going to need surgery, so lets get it for him young before he costs to much.” (said in Rizzos accent)
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
In all seriousness
This Cespedes dude hit 33HR as a 25yo against what might be low-A level pitching overall in Cuba & they think he could draw an offer of $30M over 5 years? That’s not talent, that’s just a physically mature player beating up on lesser pitching. Somebody will probably bite on this, I just hope t’s not Rizzo.
Darvish, OTOH, has pitched masterfully for multiple years against a higher level competition; i’d hope that Rizzo chases this option much harder than the other internationals currently on the board. A posting fee offer of $30-32M doesn’t strike me as unreasonable at this point; After all, it’s not my money.
YAY! Another person on the Yu Darvish train!
Heh.
And, yeah, the numbers for Cespedes don’t impress me very favorably.
"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011
All aboard!
I’m actually in for $35-40 mil on the posting fee, assuming they can structure the contract creatively to minimize risk.
He'll look to beat Dice-K's contract,
So I’d rather see the posting fee go low. The $55-60M that he hopefully pockets is what it’s all about.
The total cost for him will be appalling once the process is done
I have a feeling he will be around $110m between posting fee and salary when all is said and done. And I just don’t think he’ll be worth it. Let Toronto have him.
"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant
by The Herndon Kid on Nov 7, 2011 8:06 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
Well, the Nats have the leverage in that situation
I was thinking of structuring the contract with a big signing bonus but some of the back end marks be performance based. Give him the ability to exceed $55 million if he performs like a good #2 starter, for example.
If he posts, I'd think the contract would be incentive-driven
but not too much. He’ll be looking for a guarantee greater than Dice-K’s, which might get out of Rizzo’s / the Lerner’s comfort zone; That’s my only worry with Darvish.
In thinking about it, if Rizzo wins the posting fee...
a 5yr contract with a $10M bonus across years 1-4, and a front-loaded AAV of around $8.5M with acheivable incentives ($43.5M+), Darvish (and his agent) could split $53.5M minimum & become available at age 31 for another possible contract. Just a thought.
One less center fielders available
Royals traded Melky Cabrera to the San Francisco Giants for Jonathan Sanchez and a minor leaguer. Thus Cabrera is off the market. The Giants are out of the market for Center Fielders. The Royals got starting pitching Jonathan Sanchez, therefore need one less pitcher.
New hashtag
#SignYoAndYu
1. Sign Yo and Yu.
2. Win World Series.
3. Profit!
World Baseball Classic
In short sample he had a 1.480 OPS at the WBC in 2009. I like that. He also hit 33 hrs, sure against subpar pitching, but it was in only 90 games. Thats the equivalent of hitting 59 in 162. So there is pop there for a center fielder. (that has some sarcasm mixed in).
I think the Nats want someone with potential. Kendry Morales and Alexei Ramirez are showing their stuff. They are both all-star caliber players and this guys is the second best player in all of cuba. He fills a need AND the Nats have the money.
Roll the DICE!
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Our other options are
Roll the dice on Sizemore’s knees (surgery on both knees), sign someone like coco crisp, or trade away some of their pitching for a CF like Upton who doesn’t really strike me as any better than this guy.
worse case scenario, I think, he is alfonso soriano at the plate, with above avg. defensive skills.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Remember, some of the WBC results may have been against truly subpar teams
I’d want to see a list of who he hit off of before pushing him up the prospect list based on his WBC OPS.
Martis is the best pitching dutchman in the world
I think he deserves more of a shot personally.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Well, maybe at the moment
Hard as it is to believe, Sidney Ponson had a lot more success than Martis has so far.
So much for anyone who was hoping for Cain from the Royals
That also probably kills the rumours of ATL sending Jurrens to the Royals for Wil Myers. The CF player pool just receded about an inch.
Darvish & Cespedes
So, we have folks excited about Darvish, who don’t feel Cespedes, who would come much cheaper, is worth the risk? Seriously? I find that to be somewhat humorous!
"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values
by sullyzz on Nov 7, 2011 9:30 PM EST via mobile reply actions
Nats intersted in Wada
washingnats William Ladson
I was informed that the #Nats have expressed interest in LHP Tsuyoshi Wada. The club have scouted him quite a bit, I was told.
I would take him on a minor league contract, or he can have Maya’s spot on the 40 man
MOAR SEVERINO!
I doubt he's looking for a minor league contract...
although I have never heard of him before
Very Big Time News!
DrewStoren:
I just received some very big time news, a certain bullpen member has now created a twitter, and yes it’s @tylerclippard.
TylerClippard: "Tweet Tweet baby, Tclip is officially on Twitter! Let the chaos begin"... 10 minutes ago
"...because I spent years as the only Expos fan I knew..." -P.R., Oct. 2011...+1
by cat daddy3000 on Nov 7, 2011 10:17 PM EST up reply actions
Let's see. The choices seem to be:
- Sign Yu Darvish for a lot of money.
- Sign Yoenis Cespedes for a lot of money.
- Sign Prince Fielder for a lot of money.
Choices 1 and 2 present a significant amount of risk. Choice 3 is relatively safe for the next several years, but means the Nats lose their first round pick next year.
If it comes down to doing only one of the above actions, I think you know where I would put my efforts.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
I would probably have to agree with you
while Yu Darvish would be nice, I think that with Stras and JZimm at the top of the rotation, we dont really need Yu, and Fielder would bring something to the Nats that we have never really had, a power hitter who hits for average and takes walks. The only thing I worry about Fielder, is will this team be able to resign Ramos, Stras, Harper, Espinnosa, bith Zims, etc when the time comes because of Fielder and Werth’s contract. I would also want Fielders contract to be front loaded, to balance out Werths, which is backloaded. If the lerners would put out enough money to still compete when Werth and Fielder are near the end of their contracts, I say sign Fielder.
MOAR SEVERINO!
The only contract I would give Fielder is a front-loader contract.
For the exact reason you mentioned. We have a great young core, and we should try to hold onto this core for a long time. Werth’s contract is ridiculously back-loaded. I guess Rizzo thought that it would be much easier to pay Werth after the Nats start winning and generating more revenue, but I would have preferred to have an evenly balanced contract, especially since we didn’t even spend that much this year.
One thing with signing Fielder, though, is who would our leadoff be? Centerfield would be filled by Werth since Morse will go to left and Harper will go to right. Our leadoff would most certainly have to come from the SS position, which would mean Desmond and possibly Espinosa(If Rendon moves to second) would have to go, unless one can prove to be a good leadoff hitter.
Skins rule
I still contend
backloading is something the team wants and the player does NOT want. It reduces the present value of a deal. If I offer you $10M, but I’m not going to pay you $10M until 10 years from now, I’m not really offering you $10M — not even close. At 5% interest, the present value is only about $6.1M. So, if you give me services today that are worth $10M then I should be able to bank that until payday and collect $3.9M in interest along the way. Of course, I COULD theoretically go and spend all that money now and worry about it later, but I’m pretty sure the Lerners, who have amassed more wealth than I can imagine, aren’t so dumb as to do something like that.
There is only one very minor, artificial issue that may play into the end of ballooning contracts: luxury tax. IMO, it’s highly unlikely this will be a concern for the Nationals. This year, teams that paid the tax had payrolls in excess of $126M. In five or six years the cutoff may be closer to $140M. I don’t see the Nats getting in that territory in this decade.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
re Luxury tax
I was wrong about the triggering value. It’s $178M this year. Not quite three times the Nats current payroll.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
This is the way I’ve always thought of it as well. Assuming the Lerner’s have sufficient means to take advantage of that time value (given how much they’re worth it seems a no brainer) then ignore year-to-year budgets (to the extent that it doesn’t trigger the luxury tax, as you say) and figure out what it takes to get the deal done. Back-load the heck out of it if the player is willing. Year to year payroll fluctuations shouldn’t matter if the Lerners are willing to take a big picture view of the spending.
I am still puzzled by the back-loading of the Werth contract, even though some on here have attempted to explain it. His contract gets more expensive, as his skills erode….brilliant. But hey, maybe it is true….22mil won’t seem like that much “then” especially “when” the Nats are selling out every game.
"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values
Maybe it was another negociating concession?
Something Werth insisted on to agree to the deal? But if the franchise can become successful, they should be able to support a $100 mil a year payroll. That plus inflation could help explain it.
But if they do sign a high dollar FA or extend Zimmerman, it will be interesting to see how the money is spread out.
We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court
Paying him that money in the later years is cheaper than paying it in the early years. Simple as that. If you assume that the total $$ value of the contract was more or less set, then it’s much better for them to have to pay him in 7 years than it is to have to pay him today. They can use the money they would have paid him to earn them more money elsewhere for now.
"we don't really need Yu"?
You can never have enough top of the rotation pitching, but I do agree that our money this off-season would be better spent on a big bat like Prince than a risky foreign pitcher. However, if I’m not mistaken, the posting fee is a one-time thing that would not hinder us down the road, leaving only about a $50 mil contract spread over 6 or 7 years. Considering the low payrolls of the past, perhaps the posting fee would come from the confers, but I concede that could be a stretch.
The talk of us going after Oswalt is intriguing to me because he would be a top-of-the-rotation type but would also be a short contract. What I don’t like about Oswalt is that we’d have to give up our 1st round pick. But if we were already giving up the pick by signing another Type A (Prince?), then it makes more sense to me. Perhaps the reason the FO went for the gusto this draft is because they were expecting to lose our top two picks from this upcoming draft (or maybe they still expected our 1st rounder to be protected). Either way, this past draft’s haul definitely compensates for potentially losing the top of next year’s draft.
We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court
More likely they went for the gusto in this draft for two reasons
(1) this draft was really deep; and
(2) as insurance if MLB adopts a hard slotting system for draft picks.
With the second being more urgent. According to reports I’ve read, Selig is pushing hard to limit the amount that can be paid to draftees to a specific $$ figure per slot. The union has asked that compensation picks from the teams be taken out (because loss of a draft pick increases the cost to a team of signing a Type A FA, lowering the bargaining position of the player) and the owners have said they aren’t doing that unless they get the slotting system locked in. If that does happen, it will obviously hamper those teams (like the Nationals) that have been aggressive and willing to spend in the draft.
Small chance we outbid for prince sorry.
To many teams are interested. He will cost $24 million a year or more. The other two options are probably $10 million each cheaper per season. If we sign any of these three then Rizzo really thinks we have post season chances. I don’t disagree that it is possible, but think 2013 is stronger. Given the choice I would go for the CF. We have a very deep hole in CF. We have a firstbasemen who, when healthy, is a solid hitter and outstanding fielder. We have many other pitching options. including Oswalt.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
If you give up your first-round for a Type A,
it doesn’t mean you sign any other Type A “for free”. You give up your next unprotected draft pick — in this case, a second-rounder. I’m a bit worried about Oswalt’s back issues, and that he has a lot of mileage on him (over 2100 IP), with career lows in K/9 and K/BB ratios. On the other hand, his other 2011 peripherals were decent. I’m just not sure he’d settle for a 1-2 year contract.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Did Philly offer him arbitration?
There has always been an assumption that if we were to sign him, we would lose our pick, but I have also read that Philly would not offer him arbitration; therefor, we get him without penalty.
Are we assuming here, or am I just being a slow-poke?
Skins rule
I don't think we've had the arbitration deadline yet...
but a good point. They declined an option already.
We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court
A 2nd rounder is more in line with his value
was my point, rather than a 1st. The more Type A’s you sign, the less you give up, although the cumulative effect is obviously there.
I think his age will limit the amount of years he’d want. He might also only wish to play a couple more years too.
We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court
If I'm not mistaken, there's a limit to the number of Type-As a team can sign
tied to the number available. My guess is that teams will be limited to two Type-As this year.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
I'd never heard that; the Yankees signed three in the 2008-2009 offseason
I don’t know if there were simply more Type A’s that year
Quick Google search:
Bq. If there are 14 or fewer Type A or Type B free agents available, no team can sign more than one type A or B player. If there are between 15-38, no team can sign more than two. If there are between 39 and 62, there’s a limit of three. However, teams can sign as many Type A or B free agents as they’ve lost, regardless of the limits above.
So, correct about it being either A or B; not sure how the limit can ever be 8. Of course, Google knows everything…
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
by RobBobS on Nov 8, 2011 2:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hate my iPhone sometimes.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
by RobBobS on Nov 8, 2011 2:27 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
“If there are more than 62 such Players, the Club quotas shall be increased
accordingly. " page 74 of
2007-2011 MLB and Players Association Basic Agreement
The limited is [ (# of rank FA -15)/23]+1
Wow.
So if the limit that year was eight, this would mean that 176 “top” free agents were around that year. That would represent well over half of the actual top 40% of players. Very curious that that many would all become free agents at the same time.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Exception was made to allow 8 FA type A or B in 2009.
According to the article jeff550 linked to.
I’m not sure resigning a team own FA count to the limit.
I doubt it
since it would result in a rather Zen-like surrendering a draft pick slot to yourself…
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
It's the Lake Woebegon model
all free-agents are above average…
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
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