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Washington Nationals: 2011 Hot Stove Rumors/Chatter...Yoenis Cespedes, Yu Darvish, Nori Aoki.

• Fun With Predictions: The LA Angels surprised just about everyone by entering the discussion late in the game and signing Albert Pujols after the St. Louis Cardinals and Miami Marlins were thought to be alone in the market for the 31-year-old, 11-year veteran. Pujols' 10-year/$254 million dollar deal was a year longer and $34M dollars richer than the 9-year/$220 million dollar deal SI.com's Jon Heyman predicted in a November 21st Hot Stove preview entitled, "Projections for Pujols, Fielder, Reyes and the top 65 free-agents."

Jose Reyes got the six years, but $18 million less than the 6-year/ $120 million dollar deal Mr. Heyman predicted. C.J. Wilson got 5-years/$75 million from the Angels, $5 million less than guessed, but the then-SI.com writer had narrowed the field to the AL's LA team and the New York Yankees, who surprised some (including Wilson) when they didn't end up pursuing the left-hander. Two of the three teams he had in the race for Mark Buehrle, the Marlins and Washington Nationals, ended up the last two teams bidding for the former White Sox lefty who got $2 million dollars more (4-years/$58) than the 4-year/$56 million Heyman predicted...

Star-divide

Mr. Heyman was one of the national baseball writers who put the Nationals in the Prince Fielder market. Should the Nats pursue the burly Brewers' first baseman, he noted that the 27-year-old slugger and his agent Scott Boras were looking for 8-years/$200 million, but projected an 8-year/$195M dollar deal. Yoenis Cespedes, the 26-year-old Cuban outfielder who's currently establishing residency in the Dominican Republic has been mentioned as a target for the Nationals for some time now, is rumored to be getting anywhere from $30-60 million once he's officially available. Mr. Heyman's prediction was for the power-hitting outfielder to sign for $40 million.

D.C. GM Mike Rizzo watched Cespedes in person at a recent private workout, and he told MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Bowden and Casey Stern recently that his scouts like what they've seen. As Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore noted recently in an article entitled, "Yeonis Cespedes not the only Cuban player Mike Rizzo scouted in the Dominican Republic", the Nationals were also in the Dominican Republic to watch 19-year-old outfielder Jorge Soler and others. How much they're willing to commit to Cespedes in unclear.

The WaPost writer, in another Nationals Journal post entitled, "Nori Aoki a possible backup plan for the Nationals in center field", added the 29-year-old Yakult Swallows' speedy, Gold Glove outfielder Norichika "Nori" Aoki to the list of potential solutions to the Nats' center fielder search. Adam Kilgore didn't predict how much it would cost the Nats to acquire Aoki through the posting system. Jon Heyman predicted a $10 million dollar posting fee and a 3-year/$15 million dollar deal for an outfielder he describes as, "... the best pure hitter to come from Japan since Ichiro." If Aoki leaves Japan, he finishes his time with the Swallows with three batting titles, six Gold Gloves and a .336/.411/.472 career slash. In a Sponichi article this weekend translated at Yakubaka.com, Aoki told reporters he has no real preference for where he plays next season. "'I do not have any requirements for where I want to play,'" Aoki's quoted stating, "'but it would help if the team had another Japanese player. That way I would be able to exchange words.'"

After the best hitter to come out of Japan in years, there's Yu Darvish. The 25-year-old pitcher posted this past Thursday and MLB teams have until Wednesday (12/14) at 5:00 pm EST to submit bids for the right-hander. ESPN.com's Buster Olney pointed to the Texas Rangers as the team, "... regarded within the industry as the favorites to land," the Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters' starter. SI.com's Jon Heyman's prediction? $40 million dollar posting fee and a 5-year/$60M dollar deal. Of course, the Rangers, like a lot of other teams, are saying they probably won't be going after Darvish...How about one more scouting report?

This one comes from Boston Globe writer Nick Cafardo and D-Backs' scout Mike Brown, who, Mr. Cafardo notes, was Darvish's pitching coach for three years in Japan with the Nippon Ham Fighters:

"'He’s the real deal,' Brown said. 'He’s got great stuff, a great presence on the mound. He would definitely be a top pitcher here if he comes out.'"

Washington Post writer Thomas Boswell recommended a less expensive alternative as a solution for the Nats' pitching needs in an artile entitled, "In MLB free agency, teams face the Albert Pujols dilemma: How much is too much?", suggesting that the Nationals, "... only other logical play," is to go for 34-year-old free agent Roy Oswalt. If he's healthy, the WaPost writer adds, "... the Nats would offer him their $35-$40 million Buehrle deal in an instant." SI.com's Mr. Heyman? Though Oswalt's said to want a multi-year deal, Mr. Heyman predicted he'd sign a one year for $11 million dollars.

The Winter Meetings are over. The Hot Stove season's just getting started. The next big decision? The Nationals have to decide whether or not to tender contracts to pitchers Doug Slaten and Tom Gorzelanny and catcher Jesus Flores. Is Flores Wilson Ramos' backup in 2012? Is Gorzelanny Davey Johnson's left-handed long man? Do the Nats finally part ways with Slaten? The Nationals have until midnight on Monday to decide?

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Comments

Display:

My xmas wish list

Sign two of the following:
Fielder
Cespedes
Darvish

Extend Flores for 1 year with a team option for 2013. Extend R.Zimmerman
Release Slaten & Gorzelanny

by natexpo on Dec 11, 2011 7:53 PM EST reply actions  

I’d be extremely happy with just extending Zim. Big bonus if they get rid of Slaten.

by Tvm950 on Dec 11, 2011 7:56 PM EST up reply actions  

The Nationals have until midnight on Monday to decide?

I’m Ron Burgundy?

I don't have a very high opinion of southern California, in sports or in general

by short_shifter on Dec 11, 2011 7:55 PM EST reply actions  

Also: Sign YU

That is all :)

I don't have a very high opinion of southern California, in sports or in general

by short_shifter on Dec 11, 2011 7:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Fixed
The 25-year-old outfielder pitcher posted this past Thursday

unless you-know-who (does Yu really know Hu?) has decided to play OF on days he’s not pitching, to further enhance his value …

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 11, 2011 8:07 PM EST reply actions  

thx

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 11, 2011 8:13 PM EST up reply actions  

the new ankiel!

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Dec 11, 2011 8:47 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

I think someone might have put something in Knorr's drink

“I know his year was shortened by injury, but I like Doug Slaten,” Knorr said. "If you ask me, the three top lefties out of the bullpen in the National league are the Braves’ Jonny Venters, the Cubs’ Sean Marshall and Slaten. I think Slaten is great against lefties.

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Dec 11, 2011 8:13 PM EST reply actions  

Are there two Doug Slatens?

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 11, 2011 8:14 PM EST up reply actions  

as voted on by hitters?

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Dec 11, 2011 8:48 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Tom Gorzelanny

If they tender him an offer is it because they don’t think they can get a good SP? Would non-tendering Gorzelanny mean the Nats are all in for another SP? Since then Ross Detwiler becomes the swing man out of the bull pen? Or do they bring back Livan Hernandez to try him at that roll?

I guess they can trade a starter and still keep him as the swing man out of the bull pen.

by HG_VA on Dec 11, 2011 8:40 PM EST reply actions  

I think Gorzy has nothing to do with the SP's

I think they see him as the LHLR

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Dec 11, 2011 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

They really should tender Gorzelanny a contract...

If we didn’t have a surplus of at least league-average pitchers, Gorzelanny would definitely be in contention for a starting spot. His stats last year were arguably the best of his career. Some highlights:

WHIP: 1.286 (lowest of career)
SO/BB: 2.88 (highest of career)

Even better were his stats in relief: 2-0 record, 2.42 ERA and 1.075 WHIP

Point being, he is probably worth the $3 million or so he would be owed through arbitration.

by John Yarchoan on Dec 11, 2011 9:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Gorzo is almost definitely coming back

The Nats didn’t send three minor leaguers to the Cubs to rent him for one year. He’s a decently effective lefty, and the Nats don’t seem to have too much competition in the wings when it comes to lefties. He’ll have a job in the bullpen.

The only likely non-tender is Slaten (I hope).

by dc Roach on Dec 11, 2011 9:58 PM EST up reply actions  

3M from 2.1M (a 43% raise),

for a guy tossed off the rotation? I doubt it.
More like 2.4 – 2.5. And that’s still a lot of dough for a guy who doesn’t really offer that much.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 10:00 AM EST up reply actions  

He's a LOOGY that can get righties out.

Jeremy Affeldt signed with the Giants this offseason for $5M, I’d say he’s a pretty good comp to Gorzellany.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 10:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Zuckerman thinks the Nats can non-tender and resign him for less money

I think he’d bolt for any team that offered him a starting job.

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

The Cheese-Man has never made a secret of his preference for starting.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 12, 2011 10:35 AM EST up reply actions  

More, for any team that offered him a chance to compete for a starting job

And I for one would not blame him. And given the $$ being thrown around for LHP (see Affeldt comment above by pig.pen) in general, he’s going to get offers. If he’s non-tendered, he’s gone IMHO.

by d_c_guy on Dec 12, 2011 10:50 AM EST up reply actions  

Gorzelanny is an insurance policy this year

If a rotation arm develops a case of the flu (or a massive hangover), a pitcher like Gorzo is there to pick up the slack on a spot start. Otherwise, he’s a LHLR, as jeff550 pointed out. That flexability is probably worth $2.5 – $2.8M for 2012.

"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3

by BinM on Dec 12, 2011 5:57 PM EST up reply actions  

Milone could do that.

Detwiler could do that. Stammen could do that. Maya could do that.

No great loss.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 6:05 PM EST up reply actions  

Who do you want picking up the lefty slack in the bullpen once Slaten and Gorzo are gone? The Nats will have Burnett and.. Severino, who has a grand total of 4 2/3 innings of major league experience.

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 6:21 PM EST up reply actions  

Anyone on this

list. Except the guy named “Slaten”, of course.

None of these folks can expect to make a ton of cash this off season.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 8:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Bu-llll

"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011

by MissB on Dec 11, 2011 8:46 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

stupid phone & twitchy fimgers

Should read; By by Slaten…don’t let the door hit you on your way out!

I don’t care one way or the other about Gorzo…BUT SIGN YU DARVISH!
(Actually, I wouldn’t be unhappy if the Nats sign Oswalt. I’ve always liked him as a pitcher…except when his back is out.)

"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011

by MissB on Dec 11, 2011 8:53 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

My guess

I think (hope) the interest in Cespedes is a smokescreen, and that Rizzo will try to be the highest poster for Aoki, who better fits our needs (good D, leadoff type skills) and is somewhat less of a wild gamble.

i can see the Nats taking a shot at Darvish too, but not at a crazy high dollar figure, so I don’t think the odds that we land him are that great.

I will say Boswell kind of convinced me that they should offer Oswalt the 3 yr/39M they offered Buerhle, even though i previously thought that they shouldn’t give Roy more than two years. But when you compare it to 5/100 for Yu, 3/39 for Oswalt doesn’t sound that bad.

by dc rl on Dec 11, 2011 9:50 PM EST reply actions  

I’d be happier with 2 years vs. 3 even if it ends up being more money per year. I’ve said all along that 2/25 with performance incentives up to 28 or so would be ideal.

by John Yarchoan on Dec 11, 2011 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Oswalt can be had for 2 yrs

And I think it would be a great addition. As for the two CF’s, it’s tough to say, but Cespedes has youth on his side (if you can trust his birth certificate), but I’m with you that Aoki is much less of a gamble, although judging from his remarks he could be a guy who struggles to adjust to US culture.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 9:38 AM EST up reply actions  

Hope

y’all make some big moves and beat the damn Phillies. I’m tired of them.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 12, 2011 12:45 AM EST reply actions  

...we ALL are.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 9:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Do you think you could help

by brokering a deal for McCutchen (the hitter, not the pitcher), maybe for Doug Slaten (One of “the top three lefties out of the bullpen” – R. Knorr), Yuniesky Maya (look at those DWL stats!), and we’ll even throw in Eury Perez (the Nats’ heir apparent in CF, a real speedster who can take over for McCutchen)?

If so, there’s a follow-up deal for a certain bridge in NY…

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 12, 2011 10:34 AM EST up reply actions  

As an added bonus, if you insist,

we’ll even throw in Adam LaRoche (quality glove 1B, “20-homer, 100-RBI-guy” – M. Rizzo) to fill the Pirates’ hole at 1B. Besides, you already know and love him from 2007-2009!

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 12, 2011 10:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Yaaaaaaaa

…….

Question. Would anyone here ever even consider Harper for McCutchen? I’m not even saying it’d be a good trade, I just don’t know. Purely curious. Now excuse me as I go hide from the inevitable barrage.

by McCutchenIsTheTruth on Dec 12, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd consider it.

I think it would take more than McCutchen to get the deal done, but not much. I like Harper, but McCutchen is more of sure thing and I think is going to be every bit as great.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

I'd consider it

but in the end I probably would not do it. Although I argue against excessive risk below re Darvish/Cespedes, I tend to believe the potential reward with Harper is way too good to pass up.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 3:25 PM EST up reply actions  

With Braun out for 50 games

Does that free up a little money for the Brewers to possibly compete for Fielder? Maybe a 1 year deal for him to lose some weight and re-enter free agency.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 10:58 AM EST reply actions  

projected arbitration salaries from MLBTR
John Lannan – $4.9MM
Michael Morse – $3.9MM
Tom Gorzelanny – $2.8MM
Jordan Zimmermann – $1.8MM
Tyler Clippard – $1.7MM
Doug Slaten -$900K
Jesus Flores – $800K

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 11:01 AM EST reply actions  

Only one year left on his deal

But if he’s trying to bolt Milwaukee already, can’t think he would have any loyalty beyond this year, also would he approve a deal to Washington this time?

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 11:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I expect the biggest hangup for any team would be his lack of consistency

Everybody know he has the stuff to be amazing, but he doesn’t put up the strong numbers consistently. His peripherals are amazing.. wouldn’t mind having him on board. I can’t imagine Rizzo would mind signing that extension if it was at all reasonable.

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 11:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Morse/Lannan

The fact that Michael Morse will make less than John Lannan in arbitration is all you need to know to know that it is a broken system.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 11:15 AM EST up reply actions  

Rec'd.

"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)

by Doghouse on Dec 12, 2011 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

A Tender Subject

Everyone agrees that Morse, Zimmermann and Clippard are no brainers to be tendered, and only a few die-hards want to non-tender Lannan – who is also a lock (sorry, die-hards). I think the Nationals would be making a mistake in non-tendering Flores (who won’t cost all that much) and Gorzelanny (who would cost some but is left handed, versatile, and has been very effective out of the bullpen).

Extending an offer of arbitration to Slaten would be a huge error. And in a side note, I have to admit that I’ve been pretty disappointed with Pete Kerzel, MASN’s substitute for Ben Goessling. His recent column on the arbitration decisions actually trots out the idea that Slaten was in some way effective before he got hurt. Anyone who makes that argument doesn’t understand baseball and wasn’t watching the team. Not a good sign for a beat reporter.

by d_c_guy on Dec 12, 2011 11:19 AM EST reply actions  

I tenderly agree on every point

btw, Kilgore also suggests non-tendering Gorzo

What bullpen options (minor league or otherwise) do we have that I might not be thinking about?

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 11:23 AM EST up reply actions  

No way I'd non-tender Gorzo

Even if you want to get rid of him, he would return at least a few org guys for the minor leagues in trade. I agree with the rest, although I would non-tender Lannan or trade him for a bag of balls.

Yes, Kertzel sucks, Goessling wasn’t great, but Kertzel joins a stable of very underwhelming Nationals beat writers, where’s our Joe Posnanski?

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 11:33 AM EST up reply actions  

Trading Gorzo for OD

if they were thinking like that, they would have dumped him already. No way I’m going to pay someone 2.5+ million dollars if I believe that his greatest value is some organizational depth.

I think it’s worth the risk to try to get him to sign for 2M. If he gets away, if some fool team out there wants to pay him to start, then so be it.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 12:16 PM EST up reply actions  

If you trade him you don't pay $2.5M

I wouldn’t quibble over half a million, he seemed to do a good job in the swing-man slot last year and $2.5M isn’t too much to pay for a 6th starter/swingman. Also, Gorzellany is a guy who posted an xFIP of 4.03, 4.31 and 3.67 over the last three years, while John Lannan posted an xFIP of 4.24, 4.36 and 4.64 over that same period, if they’re going to dump a 6th starter lefty, it should be Lannan.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 2:36 PM EST up reply actions  

The xFIP argument fails here

because the fact of the matter is that Lannan’s results have been consistently better than Gorzelanny’s. For whatever reason, it’s true. The sad fact is that after 663 innings in the Majors, Gorzo is sporting a 1.46 WHIP, and that’s just plain ugly. If the Nats lose arbitration, he could get a gigantic raise, well beyond his actual value, and he will become untradeable. There’s no justifying spending upwards of $3M on this guy.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 2:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Wait, what....

Are you saying that John Lannan is Matt Cain? 2.5 seasons of xFIP is not nearly enough to say that he “consistently” outperforms his xFIP. I know that Gorzellany’s WHIP is bad, but so is Lannan’s stuff. Given the choice between the two I’d take Gorzellany and his 8.14 K/9 to Lannan and his anemic 5.14 K/9. Gorzellany needs to quit walking people, Lannan needs to miss more bats, one is a lot easier to teach than the other.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 2:53 PM EST up reply actions  

I didn't say either.

I just said that Lannan has managed to keep his (earned) run totals down, and Gorzo hasn’t. Of course, this is all upside down, because as you, I would always pick the strikeout guy over the finesse guy given similar fielding-independent peripherals.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

P2K > P2C

Lannan is an outlier. I wouldn’t mind if he outlayed a little more than he does, though.

"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)

by Doghouse on Dec 12, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

100 average innings isn't terrible for 2.5-3 mil

HR’s kill that guy though. If he’s non-tendered maybe he goes to Oakland and becomes the 2012 Willingham in value for them

But there’s no reason to hate on Lannan, he does great with what he’s got.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

John Lannan is not good

There is reason to hate on him, he doesn’t belong on a contending team’s rotation. He was very lucky last year and still wasn’t very good.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:05 PM EST up reply actions  

BS

So he was also lucky in 2008 and 2009?

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:48 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes, he was

In 2009 he posted an ERA of 3.88 and an xFIP of 4.64, in 2008 ERA-3.91, xFIP-4.24, you could say that he outperforms his xFIP except in 2010 his 4.65 ERA was worse than his 4.36 xFIP. His stuff just isn’t good. He may very well go out there and put up another season of slightly below league average starts, but he’s also capable of putting up an ERA of 5 or 6 sometime soon.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions  

Kerzel has worked for MASN since last January, but blogged about the Orioles for some time before that. I’m hoping he’s just filling in on the Nats side temporarily til they can hire somebody more focused on the Nats.

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 12:19 PM EST up reply actions  

I think that is his role actually, just temporary, unless the $ for that job really stinks.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

Does it matter?

Whoever he is replaced by probably won’t be very good either. I’d say that right now Kilgore is probably the best of the beat writers, but that’s kind of like being name king of the fools.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 2:42 PM EST up reply actions  

I kinda do too, but I also disagree with Zuckerman more often :)

by dc Roach on Dec 12, 2011 3:44 PM EST up reply actions  

It's a pick'em

Neither is very good though. Of course the people who hire for these positions also felt that Tim McCarver belonged in the HOF.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 4:07 PM EST up reply actions  

He didn't seem to think too highly of Slaten to me...
Slaten’s main job was to get left-handed hitters out, and he failed miserably, allowing them to bat .333 (12-for-36) with two homers and six extra-base hits.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 11:42 AM EST up reply actions  

Um

be weary of small sample sizes. So he gave up two hr’s and left six balls over the middle of the plate. thats like 2 or 3 bad outings.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 12, 2011 12:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Sample size, schmample size.

He was awful, nearly every single time out.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

There's a reason why he's entered the FB lexicon

Slaten (v), to allow multiple inherited baserunners to score, while not affecting one’s own ERA. Ex. “Peacock Slaten’ed Slaten by allowing both runners to score.”

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 12, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

Brisbee predicts Yu to the Nats

Here.

I hope he’s wrong, personally.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 2:05 PM EST reply actions  

[whispers childishly] "Well I hope they don't get Fielder!"

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 12, 2011 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

...you're not alone.

At least Fielder has performed at the Major League level.

Consider the following scenario: Fielder signs with Team N. Darvish signs with Team R. Cespedes signs with Team O. They all have bad years in 2012. What will people predict about 2013 and beyond? I assume there will be those that will choose to believe that Fielder is done, the inevitable result of his large body; others will say that 2011 was just a career year, and that he stopped trying once he got the big paycheck; but I think most will say that he had a bad year and that it would be too soon to judge the signing.

But for Darvish and Cespedes, I’m sure most people will write the whole thing off as “well, that was a waste of money.” Why? Because these guys come with incredible risk. $50 million or $100 million on a bum lottery ticket is a surefire way to cripple an organization — just as $200 million on a suddenly-worthless slugger would be. Difference is that I’d say there’s at least a five time greater chance that Darvish and/or Cespedes bombs than that Fielder does the same.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 2:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Comparing Apples to Chryslers

Fielder will most likely require 7 or 8 year commitment and could exceed $200M, Cespedes will probably cost around $40M and Darvish will probably cost around $50M with posting fee. I totally agree that Fielder is more of a sure thing, but you’ll pay at least 4 times as much for him. If Darvish or Cespedes is a bust, the team can move on in a year or three, if Fielder is a bust you’ll be watching it for the better part of the next decade.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 2:39 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm seeing a lot bigger figures than $50M for Darvish being thrown around

But the unknowns here are substantial.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 3:01 PM EST up reply actions  

True, lots of unknowns

And I would probably take Fielder over Darvish if Darvish is at $100M total package except for two things, Fielder is a fat-ass and his father saw a steep decline later in his career and Darvish is a young pitcher with his best years ahead of him. It’s close, but I’d gamble on Darvish. Cespedes isn’t even the same money ballpark.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Cecil hit 39 HR's at 32 yo, and two years and 30 HR's later was out of the game at 34...

The prime years of Fielder’s deal (if you believe the idea that the back-end of long-term deals are written off) would take place in what were the prime 5-6 years of his dad’s career. That’s a big fwiw. Prince seems to be a better hitter and has more patience, don’t know how I feel either way about investing that much in Prince, but just thought it was interesting how Cecil’s career went when considering the idea…And there has to be more awareness about fitness/weight management now, right? He’s been durable thus far in his career…

Sorry, just basically arguing with myself…

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Valid arguments

Even if they are with yourself. But if you give Prince Fielder a 7 or 8 year deal, you’re signing him until he’s 35 or 36 years old. Sure there’s better conditioning, but why hasn’t he used it yet? Look at what Pablo Sandoval—finally—did for himself, why wouldn’t Fielder do the same thing? To me that says that he has bad eating and conditioning habits that won’t be broken and will eventually catch up to him. I think he’ll be great the next 3 years, but after that you could be paying someone $20M+ a year to watch baseball.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:20 PM EST up reply actions  

are you winning?

The Cecil effect has always been my concern with Fielder fils. However, I hadn’t actually mapped it out as you did here. It would be several steps (with the co-related Morse-to-LF move) away from Rizzo’s beloved SPAD, though …

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 12, 2011 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

Notwithstanding Darvish’s possible ace talent, the Nats have a lot more pitching than offense. That’s a pretty big gamble for them given the recent bid they made fro Buehrle that didn’t shift. If you can believe Fielder can play at this level for five or six years, I’d pay for the extra two or three where he really overpaid. You don’t worry about ditching an average guy like LaRoche, or worrying about Morse, and just shift your CF worries off a year or two. I just imagine even after all that he wouldn’t come here unless it was a big overpay again.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:13 PM EST up reply actions  

You can never have too much pitching

The more pitching you have, the less offense you need. Teams with great pitching staffs and below average lineups win championships, teams with great lineups and below average pitching staffs usually finish below .500.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions  

Why not?

Buerhle is on the wrong side of 30, Darvish is only 25. Also, I don’t think they’ll spend $50M on Darvish, but it will probably cost $30M in posting fees and another $20M to get him signed.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:23 PM EST up reply actions  

I don't know

Dice K was $50M in rights and without the Yankees and/or Red Sox involved, I doubt anyone will go that high again. I think it will wind up somewhere in the $30-$40M window .

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Also

Remember that’s a lump sum payment that is due immediately. Teams can spend that over a few years, but it’s all due up front and some teams just don’t have the cash flows to bid much on these deals.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:42 PM EST up reply actions  

also

Rizzo already talked about all it would take to sign Darvish. It began to sound like he was talking himself out of it.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:58 PM EST up reply actions  

What do you mean bid again?

If you’re referring to the Yankees and Red Sox rumors are they both teams are loathsome to bid due to their recent failures in bringing over players from Japan.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 4:06 PM EST up reply actions  

this guy is better than Dice-k though

Different front office in Boston, different pitcher. In the end, they scouted this guy like anyone else, so why not bid? Their rotation is short.

The Yankees really have a mediocre rotation after CC. They can’t match up with the Angels or Rangers, probably not the Red Sox either. They can afford more mistakes than the Nats, and don’t worry about making them. They’re not going to stop signing free agent pitchers after the Burnett debacle. Signing Irabu, didn’t keep them from getting stuck with Igawa .

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Unfortunately

Both teams are currently weighted down by their mistakes and their aging rosters. They may be able to spend $200M a year on payroll, but they can’t spend $300M, even they have a limit. If they had money to burn both teams would have been in on Buerhle, Wilson, Cahill etc.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 4:47 PM EST up reply actions  

The Yankees can afford more mistakes than the Nationals

The problem is, they’ve already made a bunch of them. A.J. Burnett, Rafael Soriano, Alex Rodriguez (the 2nd contract – crazy as it was, A-Rod actually produced a good return on the 10 year/$252 million contract the Yankees inherited), Derek Jeter (again, the second contract – he actually justified his original 10 year free agent deal). Sabathia’s renegotiation threatens to become another one. And, admittedly to a lesser extent so far, Mark Texeira. That’s six big money deals that are so far looking like 1-4-1. They Soon they’re going to have to pay Cano, too.

I also think the Yankees’ rotation, while not established after Sabathia, has more upside than you think. Ivan Nova had a good rookie season even if it wasn’t as good as his W-L record. It’s way too early to give up on Phil Hughes, and Garcia is a solid placeholder for Dellin Betances and/or Manny Banuelos. If Hector Noesi is ready, A.J. Burnett may well get bounced for a bag of baseballs.

I expect that the Yankees will bid on Darvish, but I’d be shocked if they were the high bidder.

by d_c_guy on Dec 12, 2011 5:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Fielder vs Darvish is probably the same gamble

Darvish will pitch well for two and half years, and then need a year and half for his TJ surgery after the workload affects his training regimen, and come back for another team after rehabbing. He’s work in relief for two or three years and go back to Japan.

Fielder will be hospitalized for obesity when he’s 31 and come back in the best shape of his life at 32, eat himself out of baseball again by the next year, get released and go to Japan.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:33 PM EST up reply actions  

It sounds like he's just guessing

is he someone that would have inside info? It does not seem so.

by Nats113437 on Dec 12, 2011 2:27 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm pretty sure he has no more idea than you and I

Posted mainly for amusement’s sake.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 2:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Aoki makes too much sense to happen.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 2:36 PM EST reply actions  

I think it mildly diminishes the chance that he opens the season with the Nationals

But I think the long term plan would be to have Harper-Aoki-Werth in the OF and Morse at first, figuring that they dump LaRoche for whatever they can get (depending on how healthy he is, etc) in midsummer when Harper is called up.

by d_c_guy on Dec 12, 2011 3:47 PM EST up reply actions  

This

He’s more of a sure thing than Cespedes and Harper could still move up and LaRoche could move to the bench.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions  

not that sure a thing though

Nishioka hit .346 in Japan in 2010, and .226 in Minnesota in 2011. His track record is longer and better, but still.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Nishioka also broke his leg in 2011

I’d hardly say that you can put too much stock in that .226. Also, I’m not saying he’s a sure thing at all, just more of a certainty than someone coming from a country in which birth certificates aren’t readily available or can be trusted who hasn’t played any kind of professional baseball.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:22 PM EST up reply actions  

he wasn't hitting before it either, but sure, not the same batter

I had Nishioka on my roto team, I hold him in the same regard you do Lannan, I guess.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:59 PM EST up reply actions  

what was the deal with Heyman, national writers, et al.

They kept putting out these Nats interested in Fielder rumors, which I believe are now mere cache bytes on MLBTradeRumors. It seems like total bs given what Rizzo is saying, so why do they think the Lerners would eat LaRoche’s 8 mil contract ?

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 2:44 PM EST reply actions  

All seems to be based on Nats/Boras lovefest the last few seasons more than anything the Nats have said publicly...

What they’ve done behind the scenes, who knows.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 12, 2011 2:50 PM EST up reply actions  

These guys know nothing.

How many of these guys predicted Buerhle to the Marlins? None of them. How many said Pujols to the Angels? None of them.

The entertainment value is there, though: “what kind of inanity will this guy make up today???”

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 12, 2011 3:08 PM EST up reply actions  

This

These guys aren’t even right most of the time, let alone with any regularity. I often wonder if baseball writers are just failed weathermen.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 12, 2011 3:17 PM EST up reply actions  

The national scribes are the worst

about associating names with teams; As long as they can get one right though, they’re set for another year. That’s why guys like Rosenthal, Heyman, Morosi, et al apply the “shotgun” approach (associate a player with multiple possible teams, plus a “Mystery” team) so often.

"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3

by BinM on Dec 12, 2011 6:28 PM EST up reply actions  

yeah, Heyman is Boras' mouthpiece

it cuts both ways, I suppose. It’s his turn to drum up support for Boras’ client so he gets the next scoop.

by mockcarr on Dec 12, 2011 3:20 PM EST reply actions  

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