The Washington Nationals, Yu Darvish And Wednesday's 5:00 pm EST Deadline.
• Yu And The Nats - A Recap: When he was asked if the Washington Nationals had scouted 25-year-old Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish this year, and what he thought about getting involved in the posting process that allows Nippon Professional Baseball players to move to Major League Baseball before they've reached free agency, D.C. GM Mike Rizzo told reporters in an October 26th teleconference that the Nats had scouted Darvish and they were interested.
"We scout every player that we have interest in," Rizzo said at the time, "Yu Darvish, specifically, is a player that has a great talent level. We've scouted him over the years, I've scouted him personally over the years, our pro scouts have scouted him this year specifically. We've scouted the whole Japanese Professional League as well as every other international league that plays organized baseball."
"As we've always said," Rizzo continued, "We're open to acquire talent in any way, shape or form that we can, and if it's international talent, we're certainly willing to acquire international players." Rizzo said that he hadn't personally traveled to Japan to watch Darvish pitch this past season as the Texas Rangers and Toronto Blue Jays' GMs reportedly had. "I haven't seen him pitch for the last two seasons," Rizzo explained, "but we've seen him pitch this year, several times."
After an (18-6) 2011 season in which he made 28 starts and threw 232.0 IP for the Fighters with 10 complete games, six of them shutouts, a sub-2.00 ERA (1.44) for the fifth-straight season, a total of 276 K's (10.71 K/9) and just 36 walks (1.40 BB/9), Darvish was posted last week. The right-hander announced the decision on his own blog just after 1:00 am EST last Thursday and the clock started on the four-day period for teams to submit offers to MLB before tomorrow's 5:00 pm EST deadline.
At the recently-concluded Winter Meetings, Rizzo was noncommittal when asked again if the Nats intended to submit a bid for the Nippon Ham hurler. Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore quoted the GM in an article entitled, "Yu Darvish will be posted, and the Nationals are interested", telling reporters that, "'Strategically, that doesn’t benefit us to announce whether we’re going to bid or not on him. We’ve scouted him. We like him. We recognize his ability levels.'" With less than 24 hours before the deadline to submit bids, it's unclear just how many teams are in the Darvish market.
No MLB teams are admitting that they'll be submitting bids.
According to what FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal wrote this morning, though their GM did travel to Japan and they've reportedly scouted Darvish extensively, the Texas Rangers are not going to go hard for Darvish. The bow-tied FOXSports.com reporter says Texas is focused on trading for the pitcher they're after this winter. Yahoo!Sports.com's Jeff Passan wrote about Darvish in his "10 Degrees" column this morning, noting that with the deadline to submit bids approaching, sources say the Darvish camp is warning against submitting a high posting fee that subtracts from the contract the winning team will have to negotiate with the right-hander.
Darvish's father discussed their issues with the posting system with the Japanese media, telling reporters (as translated at Yakubaka.com), "If you spend a lot of money on the posting fee, there is a chance negotiations will not go well because that amount (or close to it) is deducted from the salary." This approach, according to reports, stems from a distaste for the posting process itself which rewards the team that posts the players at the player's expense, in a literal sense. A free agent would get all the money an interested team offered, whereas they'll likely receive less after an exorbitant posting fee.
How soon after tomorrow's 5:00 pm EST deadline to submit bids the winning bidder will be announced is unclear. The posting period for 29-year-old Seibu Lions' infielder Hiroyuki Nakajima ended on December 3rd, but the New York Yankees weren't announced as the team that had won the rights to negotiate with Nakajima until four days later. The Nippon Ham Fighters will be informed of the highest bid tomorrow, but not which team made it and they too will have four days to decide if they accept it. If they do, the winning team and the right-hander have 30 days to work out a deal. So it's just the first step of the process ending Wednesday afternoon. Will the Nats end up a runner-up again like they did in the bidding for Cuban lefty Aroldis Chapman and more recently Mark Buehrle, or will last winter's Nationals re-emerge to outbid the rest of baseball for Darvish as they did for Jayson Werth?
• Feel positive about the Nats' chances of landing Darvish?
Then you'd better learn the Yu Darvish Cheer Song -- (h/t at Nats Enquirer):
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How many millions of teh lernerz doujgbo we bid?
I’m thinking $80M for 6 years (post + contract)
"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)
by Doghouse on Dec 13, 2011 10:14 PM EST via mobile reply actions
$55m posting - $45m contract...
Figure it would need to be more than Dice-K to avoid insulting him.
Ian Desmond is my hero!
Stupid phone.
“dough,” as well as “doujgbo.” (although now that I’ve typed it twice, autocorrect will think it’s a real word)
"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)
by Doghouse on Dec 13, 2011 10:17 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I hear tell Guano makes an excellent fertilizer...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 10:24 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
it's gonna take a lot of doujgbo to get and sign Daevizhll...
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2011 10:29 PM EST up reply actions
I hear tell Guano makes an excellent fertilizer...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 10:26 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
+10 pts
stupidiphone
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 10:29 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
I actually kind of like "doujgbo"
If the Nats win the blind posting, I’m going with it …
$40M posting fee...
And I’ve boosted the Nats’ offer to 5/$60.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 10:31 PM EST via mobile up reply actions
as long as someone doesn't go crazy....that posting fee could do it...
is $40mil crazy?
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2011 10:48 PM EST up reply actions
It's definitely crazy, but the price of participating in a silly system...
Source Kilgore talks to says $40M wouldn’t be a serious bid…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 10:50 PM EST up reply actions
How about $41M to show that the Nats are more serious than any $40M poster..
but not insane like a $50M poster?
$41mil is still less than Dice-K doujgbo....
Darvish needs more doujgbo …..
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2011 11:08 PM EST up reply actions
I got it.. we should have spent the past week spreading rumors that the Nats were going to bid $55M or more
just to scare everyone off.. too late now, I guess..
it's a blind crapshoot, that's what it is....
unless Bud’s manipulating it from this side….
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
From WaPost article:
“If you bid $30-50 million, you’re not really being serious. If you really want to win the bid, you’re bidding $50 million or more.” – KILGORE article
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 13, 2011 11:16 PM EST up reply actions
yes..........$50mil+ just gets it started...
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 13, 2011 11:22 PM EST up reply actions
I wonder what a $50m cheque looks like...
Is it one of those big gameshow-like novelty ones?
Ian Desmond is my hero!
one would hope... helps keep the anxiety down of carrying around and losing a small paper one...
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 14, 2011 7:32 PM EST up reply actions
Much more
Between the posting fee and the contract, the total financial commitment to acquire Darvish will likely end up between $110 million and $140 million.
That’s a lot more than I recall having previously seen.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
$20.1 mil posting
If posting fee bid is too low other teams win the rights. If is a team is the high bidding has too low an amount then the Japanese team can turn it down. It the posting fee is too high and deducted from the salary Yu Darvish won’t be happy and may not sign. Who know how much Darvish thinks he can get. If he comes to the US and is great he will make a lot of money, more than in Japan. This guy could be trying to make a point about the posting system and stay.
Bid low on the posting fee. (Say $20.1 mil) No one other then Daisuke Matsuzaka ($51 Mil) and Kei Igawa ($26) was over $13.1 mil. If the Team wins then maybe 5/$50 mil with $10 mil of incentives for inning pitched, all star games, awards…etc.
Posting system
Didn’t Darvish imply that he wouldn’t want the posting fee was too high, since a) he never gets to see that money anyway, and b) he finds the posting system inherently unfair to begin with?
Also, if I’m understanding this correctly, neither the team (Nippon Ham) nor the player get any say over which team is his ultimate destination? The winning team is not revealed until the bid amount is accepted?
As far as I know, the Fighters want the posting fee because turning it down would turn a financial asset of the posting cash into a liability for having to pay Darvish for another year.
Whatever the outcome, this system really does do all it can to screw over the player, doesn’t it?
I don't have a very high opinion of southern California, in sports or in general
by short_shifter on Dec 13, 2011 11:21 PM EST up reply actions
Posting system
Good for the Team NOT the player. That is what Darvish is saying.
"The Nationals have also talked about bringing Willie Harris back to the team."!!!
in the article:
Nationals looking at Dobbs for bench role -link from Patrick’s Twitter
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
Willie Harris back to the team?
Why? So he can Bat .183 like he did in 2010?
made the dingers that much more exciting...
"Even when I retire and live here in Houston, I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 14, 2011 1:10 PM EST up reply actions
My prediction
Texas Rangers
$64MM posting fee
6 years/$72MM
Serious offer!
I don't have a very high opinion of southern California, in sports or in general
I'm really not so sure..
considering what the Rangers were not willing to pay C.J. Wilson, that seems steep even for them.
For that, they can take the gamble
I’d be pretty disappointed if the Nationals or Yankees came in with an offer like that.
"The only things missing are a shifty mole and a double cross."
It wouldn’t shock me if there was that type of behavior in baseball with the secrecy and all. I know for a fact many teams are incredibly secretive even within their own org. (Looking at Rizzo here).
If I were a team, I’d take the price is right approach. “I’ll take $1 Bob”
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
I am kind of scared off by his innings totals
With that said, we don’t need to worry about this inning limit jazz.
You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!
Any chance that the Nats are waiting on the results of the Darvish sideshow
before what they decide to do about Fielder?
I’ve got to believe that Rizzo’s not going to let the team be completely shut out of the wheelin’ and dealin’ this off-season. Would he?
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
If Rizzo can't get a good pitcher
I expect he’ll be willing to pay more for an CFer, but it seems unlikely that he’d pay for an upgrade at a position of strength.
Adam LaRoche = "position of strength"?
Huh. Go figure.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Strenght as in "smells rather strong over here"
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
I wonder why MLB doesn't short circuit the posting process.
The MLB teams could hold a live auction for the right to enter a bid. Fundamentally, the research and preperation would be the same, i.e. the overall amount your team is willing to bid. The Japanese teams still get their payday, albeit reduced by some margin, we can save time, it will generate something more interesting to follow than this incessant rumor-mongering, and we can avoid the league being hurt by giving away $10 million more than they should.
They would first have to terminate the agreement with Nippon Baseball
As I understand it, either party may quit the agreement, but only by providing notice and doing so on some date in the summer time (I think June, but I’m too busy to look it up right now). So neither party can just unilaterally change the process for one posting.
Forget Darvish. Think Aoki,
We won’t bid on Darvish – at least not much. Rizzo won’t go over $30 million posting. He shouldn’t. We don’t really need Darvish. We need Norichika Aoki. He’s the perfect fit for the Nats. An excellent defensive CF with good bat skills and excellent OBP who can lead off. If we don’t get Darvish I’ll be fine. If we don’t get Aoki that will be a huge mistake.
I like Aoki, and I think he would be a good fit for the Nationals, but I don't understand your thoughts on Darvish
Why only $30 million? Personally, I think that Yu could represent a great opportunity for the Nationals. Assuming that we have been stocking cash reserves during the years we were terrible, and spent no money, then we might be the team best able to pay a large posting fee. Additionally, a front-heavy contract would not be terrible for the Nationals, who are currently cheap, but will grow expensive within a few years. However, all of this is entirely speculative, as neither of us knows the team’s projected top salary.
I would love Darvish but...
…I just don’t think Rizzo will go very high to get him. He didn’t offer Buehrle much and didn’t even get in on Wilson – two proven major leaguers – so why would he go high for an unproven pitcher? Especially since Davey has let it be known how much he loves the staff we have. Still, I’ve seen the video of Darvish. His ball moves around and he mixes up speeds very well – ranginging from 70mph – 95mph. He could be great.
Aye, there's the rub ...
He could be great
Could be. It’s awfully rough to ask a team to invest $120 million in “could be.” Will he be able to pitch every fifth day? Will he adjust to the culture? To the level of play? I can see going in for Darvish for a posting fee of $35-40 million and a contract around 5 years/$55 million. If someone wants to make a stupid bid ( and I’d consider anything >$50 million to be just that), you wave good-bye and move on to other projects (For RobBob I’ll add: sign Prince Fielder!).
I want Fielder more and more...
Why can’t we get him? Because we have a logjam at first. Why? Because we have 7 mil committed to LaRoche. Seriously? This is foolishness.
Werth can play CF.
I’ve seen him do it.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
No.
But they don’t need him to. If you get your apparent wish and Morse is eventually made the long-term first baseman position after 2012, then the Nats can focus on getting a replacement CF. The FA class after next year for that position is a lot more promising, with names like Granderson (maybe), Victorino, Bourn, and Upton as potential targets. Even if Morse sticks as an outfielder (because a certain favorite of mine is signed to play first base), the Nats can still work to make Harper the long-term solution in center.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
I think the more accurate question is "what damage will one year of CF do to Jayson Werth?"
My estimation is that the damage would significantly reduce future production.
Pish posh.
CF is not THAT demanding a position.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
For one inning, IIRC.
Didn’t Mattingly play second base?
yup
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
It would figure
the one time he invoked the spirit of the rule vs. the letter of the rule…
Still, it was worth it to see Brett’s complete and utter meltdown after he was called out
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Morse can stay in left.
If we sign Fielder it’s simple – the outfield is, from left to right: Morse, Werth, Harper. I know Morse is a better first baseman but, I’d do it. And Morse said he’d play anywhere to get Fielder on the team.
Of course, that doesn't solve the leadoff problem.
Love Desmond but want him batting second. Ok, forget Fielder. Sign Back to my original idea. Sign Aoki. Bring up Harper as fast as possible and move Morse to first. LaRoche goes to the bench and strengthens that. Simple.
If I had any notion that Aoki's Nippon numbers would translate to MLB,
then I say go for it. But, that notion eludes me.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
That is a trick. But I like his style.
From what I’ve read he’s a slap hitter with excellent speed and some power. I don’t know how the numbers translate either but even if there’s a significant drop in average he’d still be very good. If .340 in Japan = .280 in USA that’s pretty good.
A completely unscientific examination
To me, his style seems similar to Ichiro’s.
His career slash: .336/.411/.472
Ichiro’s: .353/.421/.522
Ichiro has been, of course, a very good contributor in MLB, but his career slash here has been 8%, 12%, and 19%, resp., below the numbers he posted for Orix. If that held for Aoki, then he could be a .310/.370/.380 guy, which is pretty good patience-wise, but the lack of power makes him nothing I’d fawn over.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
The other thing is whether he'd want to play here
Aoki has stated (and take that FWIW) that he wants to play on a team with another Japanese player with whom he can talk and interact. Of course, according to many, Yu know the solution to that …
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
who wouldn't?
Aoki’s worth a three or four more wins to the Nats than Ankiel with those numbers.
I don't think so.
Only 25 players since 1970 have put up a slash line between .305-.315 / .360 – .380 / .370 – .390.
Among those, only two posted more than ONE batting win (Steve Sax, 1989, 1.3, and Wally Backman, 1986, 1.1). The average RUNS contributed over replacement for these guys is 1.5 — a far cry from 4 WINS.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Jones put up 10 batting runs
Don’t underestimate the contribution of those 53 xBHs.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Norichika Aoki NPB numbers multipled by ratio to MLB
The numbers above (.336/.411/.472) look like his career numbers up to 2010.
I used Norichika Aoki 2008 to 2010 NPB number .336/.416/.494 and developed estimates for he in the MLB based on ratio of Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka NPB to MLB.
BA/OBP
.271/.340 based on ratio of 2008-2010 vs Kosuke Fukudome last 3 year NPB vs career MLB ratio
.251/.304 based on ratio of 2008-2010 vs Tsuyoshi Nishioka last 3 year NPB vs 2001 MLB ratio
The data came to calculate these numbers from wikipedia and Br
In 2011 the NPL changed the ball and it reduce batting stats. So I don’t know if they are useful for ratios but: using 2011 Aoki’s NPB .292/.358 gives
.258/.292 based on ratio of his 2011 vs Kosuke Fukudome
.219/.262 based on ratio of his 2011 vs Tsuyoshi Nishioka
2011 for Norichika Aoki from comments from chubias in this this article.
I don’t know where he got the 2011 number from. I have not looked for them

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