What could Norichika Aoki do in the MLB? Star or a backup?

by HG_VA on Dec 15, 2011 8:52 PM EST

Norichika Aok (29-year-old Yakult Swallows' center fielder, six-time Gold Glove winner and three-time Central League batting champion) posted in Japan on 12/12/11. Given the Washington Nationals need for a center fielder and the thin free agent market for in the MLB many think the nationals should bid for him. There was some general information in Washington Nationals: Open To Acquiring Talent In Any Way? Norichika Aoki Posted Today In Japan.

As I stated in comments to Washington Nationals: Important Dates, Post 2011 MLB Winter Meetings Notes. “He is estimated to cost a $10 million posting fee and $15 million, three years from a projection in sports illustrated.” I could not find any estimates for what he could do in the MLB base on his NBP stats. So I made a spreadsheet and estimated what he could do in the MLb based on his 2008-2010 NPB stats vs Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka last 3 years in the NPB. I did not use his 2011 data since the NPB change the ball and most batting number including Aoki dropped. The numbers vary a lot. He can be a star or a backup.

Added a table based on Ichiro Suzuki. Adde 12/16/2011 at 8pm EST

Norichika Aoki MLB estimates based on his 2008-2010 vs last 3 years of Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka
	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	OBP	SLG
Aoki 2008 - 2010 NPB	392	1558	264	524	96	8	44	193	68	0.336	0.416	0.494

Fukudome 2005-2007 NPB	354	1280	283	422	108	11	72	255	29	0.324	0.437	0.588
Fukudome MLB Total	565	1860	260	486	110	13	43	190	29	0.262	0.357	0.401
Fukudome Ratio NPB MLB	1.596	1.453	0.919	1.152	1.019	1.182	0.597	0.745	1.000	0.808	0.818	0.682

Aoki Based on Fukudome
MLB 4 Yrs	626	2264	243	603	98	9	26	144	68	0.271	0.340	0.337
1 Yr	156	566	61	151	24	2	7	36	17	0.271	0.340	0.337

Nishioka NPL 2008-2010	380	1523	269	466	82	19	38	149	66	0.302	0.380	0.457
Nishioka 2011 MLB	68	221	14	50	5	0	0	2	12	0.226	0.278	0.249
Nishioka Ratio	0.179	0.145	0.052	0.107	0.061	0.000	0.000	0.013	0.182	0.748	0.732	0.544

Aoki MLB Based on Nishioka
1 Yr (70 Games)	70	226	14	56	6	0	0	3	12	0.251	0.304	0.269
Scaled to 140 G	140	452	27	112	12	0	0	5	25	0.251	0.304	0.269

	AVG	OBP	SLG
Ichiro Suzuki NBP 1998-2000	0.363	0.429	0.543
Ichiro Suzuki MLB 2001- 2011	0.326	0.370	0.421
Ichiro Suzuki Ratio	0.899	0.863	0.775
Aoki Based on Ichiro Suzuki Ratio	0.302	0.359	0.383

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Comments

Aoki seems to me

to be much more like a Nishioka than a Fukudome. As in, the speedy slap-hittery type, more than a line-drive/doubles kind of guy.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Dec 16, 2011 1:32 PM EST reply actions

If he could be a plus defender, speedy high-OBP guy

I’d be happy with him even if his slugging % was about even with his OBP. Someone has to set the table for the big bats.

Now, where do you think we could get a big bat …

by d_c_guy on Dec 16, 2011 3:41 PM EST up reply actions

We could extend Adam LaRoche.

by chubias on Dec 16, 2011 3:51 PM EST up reply actions

A pox on your house!

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Dec 16, 2011 4:02 PM EST up reply actions

Do you bite your thumb at me?

by chubias on Dec 16, 2011 4:05 PM EST up reply actions

No ... but I did bite my thumb

[wait a minute … that doesn’t end well]

by d_c_guy on Dec 16, 2011 4:24 PM EST up reply actions

but not at me, SIR?

by chubias on Dec 16, 2011 5:08 PM EST up reply actions

I'm not sure how he will transfer, but he does have a solid talent for making contact.

If we could, we would sign Denard Span for this price, and his SLG isn’t much higher than his OBP.

by chubias on Dec 16, 2011 4:04 PM EST up reply actions

Except Span's not a free agent

and the Twins don’t seem in the mood to trade him

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 16, 2011 6:38 PM EST up reply actions

I think his point wasn't that we should get Span

But that if we’re willing to get Span for that price we should be willing to get Aoki; both are speedy slap hitters. Span is ML proven but with concussion issues (I was saddened to see Crosby relapse; don’t mess with brain injuries!) and Aoki is healthy but with no experience outside of Japan.

by d_c_guy on Dec 16, 2011 7:06 PM EST up reply actions

What d_c_guy said.

by chubias on Dec 17, 2011 3:28 PM EST up reply actions

Gotcha.

Sorry, there’d been a flurry of Span posts before the trade deadline, and I just had a flashback. Span would have been tempting if not for the relapsing concussion symptoms (ditto Crosby ref’ce).

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 17, 2011 4:10 PM EST up reply actions

I hope we take a chance on him.

There’s a chance he’ll be a notch or two below Ichiro. He could also be another So Taguchi. Chances are he’ll be somewhere in between. Too bad for him he’s posted the same year as Darvish, or it probably would have made a bigger splash.

by mstomper on Dec 16, 2011 8:32 PM EST reply actions

I fully expect that Aoki will be

a classic batting average was 20 percent phosphorus guy, who regularly 2 nine minutes played in all 144.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Dec 16, 2011 11:07 PM EST reply actions

+20% phosphorus at 2 nine minuets

let us know what the major mechanism said!

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Dec 17, 2011 12:27 PM EST up reply actions

Winning bid is in - only 2.5MM

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/yakult-accepts-25mm-posting-bid-on-norichika-aoki.html

No word yet on who it is. For the price I sure hope it’s the Nats. I have no idea how good he’ll be, but the Nats need someone NOW and it doesn’t appear as if a long-term solution will be had in the trade/free agent market. This will at least buy time.

by mk7676 on Dec 17, 2011 2:22 AM EST reply actions

$2.5MM and 3 year/$15MM deal

seems pretty reasonable risk. If it works out, then we have plenty of time to see if Harper, Goodwin, Perez, Hood… etc will work out in CF.

by chubias on Dec 17, 2011 3:32 PM EST up reply actions

And I trust Aoki's stats more than the Cespedes videos

As long as he hits better than Nook, and isn’t prone to Nyjer-like meltdowns. The fly in the ointment is his stated preference to sign with a team that already has Japanese player(s) on the ML roster, so he “has someone to talk with”. I could easily see Aoki refusing to negotiate on those grounds.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 17, 2011 4:13 PM EST up reply actions

Aoki video

by HG_VA on Dec 17, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions

Well, the video, seems to confirm general consensus that he hits well but with little power

almost all of this HRs were just over the fence in Japan, which would like be warning track in the MLB. The good news is it did seem like he could hit to all fields, and being the first player in Japan to post 200+ hit consecutive seasons means he probably figured out how to read defense and find gaps. Now, if he could just play Brett Gardner defense.

by chubias on Dec 17, 2011 4:54 PM EST up reply actions

That would be nice

Over at Pinstripe Alley, Gardner is referred to as “GGBG” which either stands for “Go Go Brett Gardner!” or “Gutty, Gritty Brett Gardner” … depending on who is posting it.

by d_c_guy on Dec 17, 2011 5:16 PM EST up reply actions