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What could Norichika Aoki do in the MLB? Star or a backup?

Norichika Aok (29-year-old Yakult Swallows' center fielder, six-time Gold Glove winner and three-time Central League batting champion) posted in Japan on 12/12/11. Given the Washington Nationals need for a center fielder and the thin free agent market for in the MLB many think the nationals should bid for him. There was some general information in Washington Nationals: Open To Acquiring Talent In Any Way? Norichika Aoki Posted Today In Japan.

As I stated in comments to Washington Nationals: Important Dates, Post 2011 MLB Winter Meetings Notes.He is estimated to cost a $10 million posting fee and $15 million, three years from a projection in sports illustrated.” I could not find any estimates for what he could do in the MLB base on his NBP stats. So I made a spreadsheet and estimated what he could do in the MLb based on his 2008-2010 NPB stats vs Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka last 3 years in the NPB. I did not use his 2011 data since the NPB change the ball and most batting number including Aoki dropped. The numbers vary a lot. He can be a star or a backup.

Added a table based on Ichiro Suzuki. Adde 12/16/2011 at 8pm EST

Norichika Aoki MLB estimates based on his 2008-2010 vs last 3 years of Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka
G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB AVG OBP SLG
Aoki 2008 - 2010 NPB 392 1558 264 524 96 8 44 193 68 0.336 0.416 0.494
Fukudome 2005-2007 NPB 354 1280 283 422 108 11 72 255 29 0.324 0.437 0.588
Fukudome MLB Total 565 1860 260 486 110 13 43 190 29 0.262 0.357 0.401
Fukudome Ratio NPB MLB 1.596 1.453 0.919 1.152 1.019 1.182 0.597 0.745 1.000 0.808 0.818 0.682
Aoki Based on Fukudome
MLB 4 Yrs 626 2264 243 603 98 9 26 144 68 0.271 0.340 0.337
1 Yr 156 566 61 151 24 2 7 36 17 0.271 0.340 0.337
Nishioka NPL 2008-2010 380 1523 269 466 82 19 38 149 66 0.302 0.380 0.457
Nishioka 2011 MLB 68 221 14 50 5 0 0 2 12 0.226 0.278 0.249
Nishioka Ratio 0.179 0.145 0.052 0.107 0.061 0.000 0.000 0.013 0.182 0.748 0.732 0.544
Aoki MLB Based on Nishioka
1 Yr (70 Games) 70 226 14 56 6 0 0 3 12 0.251 0.304 0.269
Scaled to 140 G 140 452 27 112 12 0 0 5 25 0.251 0.304 0.269

AVG OBP SLG
Ichiro Suzuki NBP 1998-2000 0.363 0.429 0.543
Ichiro Suzuki MLB 2001- 2011 0.326 0.370 0.421
Ichiro Suzuki Ratio 0.899 0.863 0.775
Aoki Based on Ichiro Suzuki Ratio 0.302 0.359 0.383
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