Norichika Aok (29-year-old Yakult Swallows' center fielder, six-time Gold Glove winner and three-time Central League batting champion) posted in Japan on 12/12/11. Given the Washington Nationals need for a center fielder and the thin free agent market for in the MLB many think the nationals should bid for him. There was some general information in Washington Nationals: Open To Acquiring Talent In Any Way? Norichika Aoki Posted Today In Japan.
As I stated in comments to Washington Nationals: Important Dates, Post 2011 MLB Winter Meetings Notes. “He is estimated to cost a $10 million posting fee and $15 million, three years from a projection in sports illustrated.” I could not find any estimates for what he could do in the MLB base on his NBP stats. So I made a spreadsheet and estimated what he could do in the MLb based on his 2008-2010 NPB stats vs Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka last 3 years in the NPB. I did not use his 2011 data since the NPB change the ball and most batting number including Aoki dropped. The numbers vary a lot. He can be a star or a backup.
Added a table based on Ichiro Suzuki. Adde 12/16/2011 at 8pm EST
Norichika Aoki MLB estimates based on his 2008-2010 vs last 3 years of Kosuke Fukudome and Tsuyoshi Nishioka | ||||||||||||
G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | AVG | OBP | SLG | |
Aoki 2008 - 2010 NPB | 392 | 1558 | 264 | 524 | 96 | 8 | 44 | 193 | 68 | 0.336 | 0.416 | 0.494 |
Fukudome 2005-2007 NPB | 354 | 1280 | 283 | 422 | 108 | 11 | 72 | 255 | 29 | 0.324 | 0.437 | 0.588 |
Fukudome MLB Total | 565 | 1860 | 260 | 486 | 110 | 13 | 43 | 190 | 29 | 0.262 | 0.357 | 0.401 |
Fukudome Ratio NPB MLB | 1.596 | 1.453 | 0.919 | 1.152 | 1.019 | 1.182 | 0.597 | 0.745 | 1.000 | 0.808 | 0.818 | 0.682 |
Aoki Based on Fukudome | ||||||||||||
MLB 4 Yrs | 626 | 2264 | 243 | 603 | 98 | 9 | 26 | 144 | 68 | 0.271 | 0.340 | 0.337 |
1 Yr | 156 | 566 | 61 | 151 | 24 | 2 | 7 | 36 | 17 | 0.271 | 0.340 | 0.337 |
Nishioka NPL 2008-2010 | 380 | 1523 | 269 | 466 | 82 | 19 | 38 | 149 | 66 | 0.302 | 0.380 | 0.457 |
Nishioka 2011 MLB | 68 | 221 | 14 | 50 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 0.226 | 0.278 | 0.249 |
Nishioka Ratio | 0.179 | 0.145 | 0.052 | 0.107 | 0.061 | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.013 | 0.182 | 0.748 | 0.732 | 0.544 |
Aoki MLB Based on Nishioka | ||||||||||||
1 Yr (70 Games) | 70 | 226 | 14 | 56 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 0.251 | 0.304 | 0.269 |
Scaled to 140 G | 140 | 452 | 27 | 112 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 25 | 0.251 | 0.304 | 0.269 |
AVG | OBP | SLG | |
Ichiro Suzuki NBP 1998-2000 | 0.363 | 0.429 | 0.543 |
Ichiro Suzuki MLB 2001- 2011 | 0.326 | 0.370 | 0.421 |
Ichiro Suzuki Ratio | 0.899 | 0.863 | 0.775 |
Aoki Based on Ichiro Suzuki Ratio | 0.302 | 0.359 | 0.383 |