FanPost

Debunking Gio's Home/Away Splits

The orthodox line goes something like "Last season, Gonzales' home ERA was 3.56 while his away ERA was 4.32 and because Y is so much higher than X, he'll get exposed as soon as he leaves Oakland." The equally non-valid counterargument being "Yeah, but he's an xtreme groundballer so he'll be ok in a small park." Neither of these are of any consequence which we'll see as we go over his game logs after the jump....

Warning: SDSSS (Super-Duper Small Sample Size). After all the statement was only in the context of last season further limited by his road starts, hardly a population worth judging a pitcher by but here we go nonetheless:

Below is his away game log from FanGraphs sorted by ESPN's ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) formula.

Date Opp Park Factor Factor Rank IP H HR R ER SO BB FB GB Pit
22-May @SFG 0.737 30 6.2 8 0 2 1 8 2 7 9 113
25-Apr @LAA 0.836 27 5 8 0 5 4 5 1 3 7 95
23-Sep @LAA 0.836 27 7.1 3 1 1 1 5 2 9 8 101
3-Aug @SEA 0.855 26 6.1 10 0 6 6 9 4 2 9 118
28-Sep @SEA 0.855 26 8 2 0 0 0 11 3 6 7 109
22-Jun @NYM 0.908 24 7 4 0 1 1 8 1 7 8 102
9-Apr @MIN 0.944 21 6 4 0 0 0 4 2 7 9 106
1-Sep @CLE 0.96 16 7 4 0 0 0 7 4 6 8 114
11-Jun @CHW 0.991 14 5.1 5 1 3 2 2 7 3 9 115
6-May @KCR 0.992 13 7 4 1 2 2 6 4 7 11 110
6-Jun @BAL 0.995 12 7 9 0 4 3 3 1 6 10 103
24-Jul @NYY 1.131 6 4.2 7 1 6 6 5 3 7 7 111
10-Aug @TOR 1.152 4 5 4 0 4 4 4 5 9 4 108
26-Aug @BOS 1.173 3 5.2 7 2 4 4 5 3 9 9 105
8-Jul @TEX 1.409 1 4 7 3 7 3 5 3 4 9 94

Good for a 1.47 WHIP (ouch considering the talent that just went out the door to get him but that's another story). Anyway, other than April 25th and August 3rd which buck the trend, there seems to be a pretty good direct relation between park factor and earned runs. What do I think this means for Gio as he heads east? Simply what makes sense for any player; of course they're going to give up more runs playing at NY, Toronto, Boston and Texas. That's just common sense.

For the curious, Nat's Park comes in a 0.955 (marginally favoring the pitcher) coincidentally very close to Oakland's 0.947. I can't personally verify the practicality of this formula especially since Nat's Park North comes in at <1 but as long as it is equally applied to all fields, it should be a reasonable comparison.

I also threw in there his pitch counts since they were handy and I found them pretty encouraging. It's not a tell-all story since he had a negative WPA in many of these and may be more an indictment of Oakland's pen (I don't know anything about theirs to say either way) but it at least shows that he has the ability to stretch out some innings. Something about the bragging that we now have someone who has thrown 200 innings X number of times and won 15 games Y number of times gives me the shivers....

UPDATE: Here's his 09-11 road starts:

I think the principle remains sound that a lot of his ERs were at hitter friendly parks but without a linear trend attached to ER, the direct correlation is not as evident. Looks to me that he will live by the WHIP and die by the WHIP

Date Team Opp Park Factor Factor Rank IP TBF H HR R ER SO BB IBB FB GB LD Stk Bal Pit
2011 22-May OAK @SFG 0.737 30 6.2 32 8 0 2 1 8 2 0 7 9 4 70 43 113
2010 14-Apr OAK @SEA 0.813 29 4.2 23 6 0 2 2 5 4 0 4 6 3 55 43 98
2010 30-Sep OAK @SEA 0.813 29 7 30 4 0 0 0 8 5 0 3 8 5 73 45 118
2011 25-Apr OAK @LAA 0.836 27 5 23 8 0 5 4 5 1 0 3 7 5 58 37 95
2011 23-Sep OAK @LAA 0.836 27 7.1 27 3 1 1 1 5 2 0 9 8 3 60 41 101
2009 5-Jul OAK @CLE 0.838 29 6 25 6 1 2 2 8 1 0 6 7 3 56 36 92
2011 3-Aug OAK @SEA 0.855 26 6.1 31 10 0 6 6 9 4 0 2 9 5 72 46 118
2011 28-Sep OAK @SEA 0.855 26 8 29 2 0 0 0 11 3 0 6 7 1 67 42 109
2010 9-Apr OAK @LAA 0.864 27 6 24 6 1 2 2 6 1 0 5 6 5 66 29 95
2011 22-Jun OAK @NYM 0.908 24 7 26 4 0 1 1 8 1 0 7 8 2 69 33 102
2010 11-Jun OAK @SFG 0.942 22 5.1 24 6 2 4 4 4 4 0 8 7 1 60 45 105
2011 9-Apr OAK @MIN 0.944 21 6 24 4 0 0 0 4 2 0 7 9 2 61 45 106
2010 2-Jul OAK @CLE 0.947 21 6.2 29 5 0 0 0 5 4 0 8 7 5 66 42 108
2010 24-Aug OAK @CLE 0.947 21 7 30 5 0 0 0 7 1 0 2 15 4 66 43 109
2009 3-May OAK @SEA 0.947 21 5 23 5 0 3 3 1 4 1 11 6 1 66 42 108
2009 26-Aug OAK @SEA 0.947 21 5 24 7 1 4 4 7 3 0 9 3 2 63 44 107
2011 6-Jun OAK @BAL 0.955 12 7 30 9 0 4 3 3 1 0 6 10 9 68 35 103
2011 1-Sep OAK @CLE 0.96 16 7 30 4 0 0 0 7 4 0 6 8 5 64 50 114
2010 13-Aug OAK @MIN 0.962 19 6 25 3 0 4 2 7 4 0 4 5 3 60 50 110
2009 25-Jul OAK @NYY 0.965 20 6.2 25 2 0 1 1 6 3 0 4 9 2 60 42 102
2011 11-Jun OAK @CHW 0.991 14 5.1 28 5 1 3 2 2 7 1 3 9 6 61 54 115
2011 6-May OAK @KCR 0.992 13 7 28 4 1 2 2 6 4 0 7 11 0 67 43 110
2009 18-May OAK @TBR 0.996 17 3.2 19 6 0 4 4 6 3 0 0 7 3 54 37 91
2009 10-Jul OAK @TBR 0.996 17 1 6 1 0 1 1 2 2 0 0 1 1 13 12 25
2010 16-Jul OAK @KCR 1.007 12 7 29 7 0 1 1 3 1 0 5 14 6 62 37 99
2010 14-Sep OAK @KCR 1.007 12 2 16 7 1 7 7 1 3 0 4 8 0 33 22 55
2009 25-Sep OAK @LAA 1.02 15 6.1 24 4 0 0 0 7 1 0 3 9 3 58 38 96
2009 10-Aug OAK @BAL 1.037 11 6 26 7 0 0 0 5 1 0 7 11 1 57 28 85
2010 1-May OAK @TOR 1.058 8 6.2 26 3 0 2 2 8 2 0 3 12 1 71 32 103
2009 30-Jul OAK @BOS 1.072 8 5.1 24 5 0 3 3 8 4 0 4 6 2 66 41 107
2010 1-Jun OAK @BOS 1.083 7 5 25 7 1 3 3 5 4 0 7 6 3 60 48 108
2009 13-Sep OAK @MIN 1.09 6 3 19 8 1 7 7 5 3 0 1 7 3 44 34 78
2010 12-May OAK @TEX 1.091 6 4 21 9 1 4 4 3 0 0 8 7 3 62 35 97
2010 27-Jul OAK @TEX 1.091 6 6 26 5 0 1 1 6 3 0 3 11 3 68 43 111
2010 29-Aug OAK @TEX 1.091 6 6 23 5 1 2 2 4 1 0 10 6 0 65 30 95
2010 27-May OAK @BAL 1.112 5 6.1 28 6 0 3 3 6 3 0 4 11 3 66 42 108
2011 24-Jul OAK @NYY 1.131 1 4.2 25 7 1 6 6 5 3 0 7 7 2 68 43 111
2010 1-Aug OAK @CHW 1.135 4 8 31 6 0 4 4 11 0 0 7 6 5 70 29 99
2011 10-Aug OAK @TOR 1.152 4 5 24 4 0 4 4 4 5 0 9 4 2 54 54 108
2010 16-Jun OAK @CHC 1.17 3 5 24 8 1 6 6 3 3 1 8 6 3 54 35 89
2011 26-Aug OAK @BOS 1.173 3 5.2 27 7 2 4 4 5 3 0 9 9 1 64 41 105
2011 8-Jul OAK @TEX 1.409 1 4 23 7 3 7 3 5 3 0 4 9 2 53 41 94
X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

Join Federal Baseball

You must be a member of Federal Baseball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Federal Baseball. You should read them.

Join Federal Baseball

You must be a member of Federal Baseball to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Federal Baseball. You should read them.

Spinner

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9351_tracker