Debunking Gio's Home/Away Splits

by TJL on Dec 22, 2011 9:51 PM EST

The orthodox line goes something like "~~Last season,~~ Gonzales' home ERA was 3.56 while his away ERA was 4.32 and because Y is so much higher than X, he'll get exposed as soon as he leaves Oakland." The equally non-valid counterargument being "Yeah, but he's an xtreme groundballer so he'll be ok in a small park." Neither of these are of any consequence which we'll see as we go over his game logs after the jump....

Warning: SDSSS (Super-Duper Small Sample Size). After all the statement was only in the context of last season further limited by his road starts, hardly a population worth judging a pitcher by but here we go nonetheless:

Below is his away game log from FanGraphs sorted by ESPN's ((homeRS + homeRA)/(homeG)) / ((roadRS + roadRA)/(roadG)) formula.

Date	Opp	Park Factor	Factor Rank	IP	H	HR	R	ER	SO	BB	FB	GB	Pit
22-May	@SFG	0.737	30	6.2	8	0	2	1	8	2	7	9	113
25-Apr	@LAA	0.836	27	5	8	0	5	4	5	1	3	7	95
23-Sep	@LAA	0.836	27	7.1	3	1	1	1	5	2	9	8	101
3-Aug	@SEA	0.855	26	6.1	10	0	6	6	9	4	2	9	118
28-Sep	@SEA	0.855	26	8	2	0	0	0	11	3	6	7	109
22-Jun	@NYM	0.908	24	7	4	0	1	1	8	1	7	8	102
9-Apr	@MIN	0.944	21	6	4	0	0	0	4	2	7	9	106
1-Sep	@CLE	0.96	16	7	4	0	0	0	7	4	6	8	114
11-Jun	@CHW	0.991	14	5.1	5	1	3	2	2	7	3	9	115
6-May	@KCR	0.992	13	7	4	1	2	2	6	4	7	11	110
6-Jun	@BAL	0.995	12	7	9	0	4	3	3	1	6	10	103
24-Jul	@NYY	1.131	6	4.2	7	1	6	6	5	3	7	7	111
10-Aug	@TOR	1.152	4	5	4	0	4	4	4	5	9	4	108
26-Aug	@BOS	1.173	3	5.2	7	2	4	4	5	3	9	9	105
8-Jul	@TEX	1.409	1	4	7	3	7	3	5	3	4	9	94

Good for a 1.47 WHIP (ouch considering the talent that just went out the door to get him but that's another story). Anyway, other than April 25th and August 3rd which buck the trend, there seems to be a pretty good direct relation between park factor and earned runs. What do I think this means for Gio as he heads east? Simply what makes sense for any player; of course they're going to give up more runs playing at NY, Toronto, Boston and Texas. That's just common sense.

For the curious, Nat's Park comes in a 0.955 (marginally favoring the pitcher) coincidentally very close to Oakland's 0.947. I can't personally verify the practicality of this formula especially since Nat's Park North comes in at <1 but as long as it is equally applied to all fields, it should be a reasonable comparison.

I also threw in there his pitch counts since they were handy and I found them pretty encouraging. It's not a tell-all story since he had a negative WPA in many of these and may be more an indictment of Oakland's pen (I don't know anything about theirs to say either way) but it at least shows that he has the ability to stretch out some innings. Something about the bragging that we now have someone who has thrown 200 innings X number of times and won 15 games Y number of times gives me the shivers....

UPDATE: Here's his 09-11 road starts:

I think the principle remains sound that a lot of his ERs were at hitter friendly parks but without a linear trend attached to ER, the direct correlation is not as evident. Looks to me that he will live by the WHIP and die by the WHIP

	Date	Team	Opp	Park Factor	Factor Rank	IP	TBF	H	HR	R	ER	SO	BB	IBB	FB	GB	LD	Stk	Bal	Pit
2011	22-May	OAK	@SFG	0.737	30	6.2	32	8	0	2	1	8	2	0	7	9	4	70	43	113
2010	14-Apr	OAK	@SEA	0.813	29	4.2	23	6	0	2	2	5	4	0	4	6	3	55	43	98
2010	30-Sep	OAK	@SEA	0.813	29	7	30	4	0	0	0	8	5	0	3	8	5	73	45	118
2011	25-Apr	OAK	@LAA	0.836	27	5	23	8	0	5	4	5	1	0	3	7	5	58	37	95
2011	23-Sep	OAK	@LAA	0.836	27	7.1	27	3	1	1	1	5	2	0	9	8	3	60	41	101
2009	5-Jul	OAK	@CLE	0.838	29	6	25	6	1	2	2	8	1	0	6	7	3	56	36	92
2011	3-Aug	OAK	@SEA	0.855	26	6.1	31	10	0	6	6	9	4	0	2	9	5	72	46	118
2011	28-Sep	OAK	@SEA	0.855	26	8	29	2	0	0	0	11	3	0	6	7	1	67	42	109
2010	9-Apr	OAK	@LAA	0.864	27	6	24	6	1	2	2	6	1	0	5	6	5	66	29	95
2011	22-Jun	OAK	@NYM	0.908	24	7	26	4	0	1	1	8	1	0	7	8	2	69	33	102
2010	11-Jun	OAK	@SFG	0.942	22	5.1	24	6	2	4	4	4	4	0	8	7	1	60	45	105
2011	9-Apr	OAK	@MIN	0.944	21	6	24	4	0	0	0	4	2	0	7	9	2	61	45	106
2010	2-Jul	OAK	@CLE	0.947	21	6.2	29	5	0	0	0	5	4	0	8	7	5	66	42	108
2010	24-Aug	OAK	@CLE	0.947	21	7	30	5	0	0	0	7	1	0	2	15	4	66	43	109
2009	3-May	OAK	@SEA	0.947	21	5	23	5	0	3	3	1	4	1	11	6	1	66	42	108
2009	26-Aug	OAK	@SEA	0.947	21	5	24	7	1	4	4	7	3	0	9	3	2	63	44	107
2011	6-Jun	OAK	@BAL	0.955	12	7	30	9	0	4	3	3	1	0	6	10	9	68	35	103
2011	1-Sep	OAK	@CLE	0.96	16	7	30	4	0	0	0	7	4	0	6	8	5	64	50	114
2010	13-Aug	OAK	@MIN	0.962	19	6	25	3	0	4	2	7	4	0	4	5	3	60	50	110
2009	25-Jul	OAK	@NYY	0.965	20	6.2	25	2	0	1	1	6	3	0	4	9	2	60	42	102
2011	11-Jun	OAK	@CHW	0.991	14	5.1	28	5	1	3	2	2	7	1	3	9	6	61	54	115
2011	6-May	OAK	@KCR	0.992	13	7	28	4	1	2	2	6	4	0	7	11	0	67	43	110
2009	18-May	OAK	@TBR	0.996	17	3.2	19	6	0	4	4	6	3	0	0	7	3	54	37	91
2009	10-Jul	OAK	@TBR	0.996	17	1	6	1	0	1	1	2	2	0	0	1	1	13	12	25
2010	16-Jul	OAK	@KCR	1.007	12	7	29	7	0	1	1	3	1	0	5	14	6	62	37	99
2010	14-Sep	OAK	@KCR	1.007	12	2	16	7	1	7	7	1	3	0	4	8	0	33	22	55
2009	25-Sep	OAK	@LAA	1.02	15	6.1	24	4	0	0	0	7	1	0	3	9	3	58	38	96
2009	10-Aug	OAK	@BAL	1.037	11	6	26	7	0	0	0	5	1	0	7	11	1	57	28	85
2010	1-May	OAK	@TOR	1.058	8	6.2	26	3	0	2	2	8	2	0	3	12	1	71	32	103
2009	30-Jul	OAK	@BOS	1.072	8	5.1	24	5	0	3	3	8	4	0	4	6	2	66	41	107
2010	1-Jun	OAK	@BOS	1.083	7	5	25	7	1	3	3	5	4	0	7	6	3	60	48	108
2009	13-Sep	OAK	@MIN	1.09	6	3	19	8	1	7	7	5	3	0	1	7	3	44	34	78
2010	12-May	OAK	@TEX	1.091	6	4	21	9	1	4	4	3	0	0	8	7	3	62	35	97
2010	27-Jul	OAK	@TEX	1.091	6	6	26	5	0	1	1	6	3	0	3	11	3	68	43	111
2010	29-Aug	OAK	@TEX	1.091	6	6	23	5	1	2	2	4	1	0	10	6	0	65	30	95
2010	27-May	OAK	@BAL	1.112	5	6.1	28	6	0	3	3	6	3	0	4	11	3	66	42	108
2011	24-Jul	OAK	@NYY	1.131	1	4.2	25	7	1	6	6	5	3	0	7	7	2	68	43	111
2010	1-Aug	OAK	@CHW	1.135	4	8	31	6	0	4	4	11	0	0	7	6	5	70	29	99
2011	10-Aug	OAK	@TOR	1.152	4	5	24	4	0	4	4	4	5	0	9	4	2	54	54	108
2010	16-Jun	OAK	@CHC	1.17	3	5	24	8	1	6	6	3	3	1	8	6	3	54	35	89
2011	26-Aug	OAK	@BOS	1.173	3	5.2	27	7	2	4	4	5	3	0	9	9	1	64	41	105
2011	8-Jul	OAK	@TEX	1.409	1	4	23	7	3	7	3	5	3	0	4	9	2	53	41	94

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Comments

I am confident he'll be up there with Zimm, in the #3 slot

It looks like his numbers are weird enough that the people who want to DFA Lannan will not trust Gio either. I just heard about the trade, and logged in to say something from out here in CA, but will politely decline to comment on what the Nats gave up. I can’t wait to calculate how the addition sets the Nats up in the NL East next year. For now, I can say though that I am excited to have him.

John Lannan for #5 slot!

but let Det pitch!

#annoyingquandary

by dc Roach on Dec 22, 2011 10:44 PM EST reply actions

The ERAs you used was career not last year.

Career ERA home 3.56 away 4.32
Last year home 2.7 away 3.62

by HG_VA on Dec 22, 2011 10:54 PM EST reply actions

o...

I mustve misread the factoid that got sent out. Ill add his career away starts in the morning

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Dec 22, 2011 10:56 PM EST up reply actions

Yup, SSS

That being said, what really worries me is the walks and the fact that he won’t be playing in front of Oakland’s superb defense, which traveled on the road with him as well. Also, the concerns about his mental makeup and ability to handle pressure of a great concern as well.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 23, 2011 9:49 AM EST reply actions

If pressure is a concern, DC is probably a perfect landing space for him

It’s not DC or Boston in terms of media attention (I kept hoping the Sports Reporters would do something on the trade yesterday, but they were all about some USC QB and what that means for the Redskins). And he’s not expected to lead the rotation, he’ll probably slot into the #2 spot so that the rotation goes Stras-Gonzalez-Zimmermann-Lannan-Wang.

by d_c_guy on Dec 23, 2011 10:15 AM EST up reply actions

Yeah DC is a good spot to land

Until the make the playoffs, but being able to slot in behind Strasburg and Zimmermann should take a lot of the pressure off. Still that rotation would look a lot better if Detwiler can step up and supplant Lannan.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 23, 2011 10:53 AM EST up reply actions

Or to supplant/replace Wang

I’m a little uneasy penciling Wang in for 33 starts and 200 IP.

by d_c_guy on Dec 23, 2011 11:54 AM EST up reply actions

I'm comfortable penciling him for 25-30 starts, 150-180 IP.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 27, 2011 10:28 PM EST up reply actions

Why?

He didn’t really have all that many good starts last season.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Dec 27, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions

Lannan is better than most number 4 starters not in Philly.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Dec 27, 2011 10:40 PM EST up reply actions

Style points>Production

I think opinions of him will change as Detwiler continues to prove that he is not worth the draft pick spent on him.

Skins rule

by Horcasitas4 on Dec 28, 2011 2:37 AM EST up reply actions

Det will rise!

And he will make us all proud!

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Dec 28, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions

I'm not so sure about Oakland's defense

In 2011 they were slightly below average in fielding efficiency ( pctg. of balls in play turned into fielding outs). The Nats actually had a slightly higher rate (.744 vs. .739). Plus, while the Nats will presumably have Morse in LF in 2012, the A’s primarily put Willingham or Matsui out there.

The BB worry me, but Gonzalez’ BB/9 has declined the past couple of years, and may continue to do so moving to the NL. Not meaning to equate the two, but in the spirit that high BB doesn’t necessarily mean bad pitcher (coughOliverPerezcough), but Ryan showed the same high-K/high-BB traits …

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 23, 2011 10:23 AM EST reply actions

Nolan Ryan was a freak of nature and an extreme statistical outlier

The problem is that there’s really not a lot of reason to believe that Ryan helped his teams win with his Ks much more than he hurt them with his BBs.

Gio MUST get that number down. Hopefully playing for a serious team will encourage him to do that.

by rarumberger on Dec 23, 2011 2:02 PM EST up reply actions

Well, to be completely fair,

all baseball players in the Majors are extreme statistical outliers.

But, more to the point, there have been others who have walked a ton of hitters and were still quite successful. Feller, Leiter, Nomo, off the top of my head all had very high walk ratios. There have been 43 pitchers in the modern era who have pitched over 1500 innings with a >4BB/9IP ratio.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Dec 23, 2011 3:09 PM EST up reply actions