Strasburg extension

I haven't seen anything written about this but Strasburg's contract expires at the end of the 2012 season. Since they were careful to delay his callup until the 2nd week of June, he stands little to no chance of qualifying as a Super Two and getting arbitration rights for 2013. So, technically, the Nats could renew his contract for the league minimum which is about $415,000 for 2012 (I don't know what it will be for 2013). He will make $3 million in 2012, so it's hard to fathom they would renew him for the minimum, or anything less than $3 million for that matter.

I don't remember hearing of this scenario before where a big name prospect finishes his initial deal before he is arbitration eligible. The obvious thing is to sign him to a contract extension that presumably would give him a raise from $3 million. But, it's fascinating to me that they have absolutely no obligation to do so, nor does Boras have any leverage to demand it. With top-end young players, teams lately have been signing them to multi-year deals to "buy out" most or all years of arbitration.

It would seem that both sides will want to wait until 2012 is over to see how he performed in his first full year back after Tommy John surgery. That would be my prediction, a multi-year deal to take him through arbitration after this season. So, a four year deal. I'll do some research on what recent top-end starting pitchers have been getting in arbitration and try to give an estimate of what kind of dollars he might get. But, of course, everything depends on this year. He hasn't come close to a full season so no one really knows what kind of pitcher he is for a full year yet. Hopefully we'll know in 8 months. But I will be fascinated to see how the Nats handle this.