Is Yoenis Cespedes The Outfielder The Washington Nationals Are After?
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 26, 2011 11:43 PM EST
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PrintWith restrictions coming under the new CBA on how much MLB teams can spend on international free agents, some are expecting 26-year-old Cuban-born outfielder Yoenis Cespedes to command a hefty sum since it's the last winter major league teams will be able to spend freely. CBSSports.com's Danny Knobler wrote this weekend in an article entitled, "Yankees, Red Sox may not bid high on Cespedes", that, "... many if not most scouts believe that he should spend time in the minor leagues first," but he's nonetheless expected to command more than the $30.25 million left-hander Aroldis Chapman received from the Reds when the pitcher signed with Cincinnati in 2010. According to Mr. Knobler's report the Yankees and Red Sox aren't likely to get involved in the bidding for Cespedes, while the Marlins have a difference of opinion in their front office about the outfielder.
The CBSSports.com writer has the Nationals, Cubs, Tigers, Rays and White Sox listed as teams with interest and he predicts Cespedes could get as much as $40 million from one of the teams. FOXSports.com's Jon Morosi left the Nationals off his list of teams with interest Sunday when he wrote in an article entitled, "Offseason twists to continue into 2012", that after speaking with baseball officials with "expertise in Latin American" his own list of interested teams included the Yankees, Cubs, Phillies, Blue Jays, Rangers, Tigers, Marlins and White Sox."
The Nationals, however, Mr. Morosi wrote, "... can’t be ruled out because some scouts believe Cespedes will be a center fielder," and that's, "... a position Washington has been unable to fill for the long term." The Nationals are, as they've noted often all winter, looking for a center fielder/leadoff man, and Mr. Morosi writes that there's a difference of opinion about whether Cespedes is better suited for center or right, but there is a point on which most agree, and it's that, "A relatively low number of scouts view Cespedes as a potential leadoff man."
D.C. GM Mike Rizzo told MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Bowden and Casey Stern recently that the Nats' scouts were of the opinion that Cespedes could work in center, describing the outfielder as, "... a hit-and-power package that can play center field... runs extremely well and he throws well... [and] has the chance to be a five-tool player." Boston Globe writer Nick Cafardo noted in his weekly Baseball Notes column on Sunday that Miami and Washington were on top of his list of interested teams.
"The Marlins are being very aggressive, and the Nationals are right behind them," Mr. Cafardo wrote, the Nats, Mike Rizzo said last Friday, are looking, "... for a long-term, permanent fit for us and just haven't found that yet and we're still attacking all avenues to try [to] get one." Some time in January when he's expected to become available, the Nationals will have to decide if Cespedes is that player or the hyped-up product of a wildly successful viral marketing campaign.
Cespedes' agent, in a recent MLB Network Radio interview, said that though the outfielder gained a lot of attention with their highlight videos, baseball scouts have been aware of Cespedes for a while now, "He's been way more heavily scouted than has been let on. People have seen him and know what they have here, so it's not quite the unknown quantity that people are sort of saying." If the Nats think Cespedes can play center will they ignore the fact that scouts don't see him as a leadoff man and let Ian Desmond hit at the top of the order? Will they spend on Prince Fielder instead of Cespedes? With Cespedes set to become available at some time in January, the time to make a decision is coming soon...
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if you knock off the cost of developing this guy for the last 10 years, it doesn't seem nearly as costly.
and it’s only money and no prospects…Getting Fielder means playing guys out of position…and numbers Morse’s days.
and one of Ankiel’s killer throws was the result of a Werth misplay….I wish to see NO Clown avatars in 2012….
"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
Throw
I hope you are referring to that throw that Ankiel made from Right and absolutely gunned that dude out! Amazing!!!
by smashmouthsteel on Dec 27, 2011 11:01 AM EST up reply actions
That throw made my Top 3 Ankiel plays of the year...
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 27, 2011 12:07 PM EST up reply actions
yeah, Sappelt going for a triple as WereWerth hits the wall....
"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." Lance Berkman......LBIMH...
by cat daddy3000 on Dec 27, 2011 12:39 PM EST up reply actions
When it comes to Cespedes you gotta be wary of how raw he is
Yeah he’s uber-athletic, but will he have the baseball skills to have a good transition into the majors? He’s very unproven and the Cuban league is not as good as the majors. Maybe as good as the low minors.
And considering he’s already 26, he doesn’t have THAT much time to develop his skills.
Go ahead, make my day.
Thought it was interesting in the Danny Knobler article quoted above...
That he mentions that Cespedes’ agents might be trying to insist that the team that signs him brings him straight to the majors. Not the first time someone’s done this (Maya’s agents apparently said the same), and Rizzo said after Maya struggled that he should have brought him along more carefully instead of rushing him up. Good as these guys are elsewhere, there’s an adjustment to the MLB game. Glad it’s not my $30-$40M that’s going to be gambled on Yoenis…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 27, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions
If so, I hope Rizzo says
“Write when you get work.” IMHO, it would be equivalent to drafting a CF in Rule 5 and sticking him out there, but much more expensive.
To paraphrase (and devalue) Sen. Everett Dirksen, “A million here, a million there, pretty soon we’re talking real money.”
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
That doesn't make any sense
Why would a player insist on making the big leagues in his first season? It could stunt him developmentally for the rest of his career. It’s in both the player and the clubs interests to maximize as much value out of a player as possible, and Cespedes will be getting his $40mil regardless of where he’s playing.
If Cespedes pans out, then he’ll be even more sought after as a 30 year old with 4 years MLB experience under his belt. But if he forces a spot on a big league roster and ISN’T ready, then his career development could be severely disturbed. Either way, he’s getting paid. So why concern himself with other details?
Is he actually 26?
I’m not saying that he isn’t, but with anyone coming out of Cuba or the Dominican you have to question their actual age. He may very well be 26, but he could also be 28, which would be a game changer. I won’t be terribly sad if they don’t sign him and won’t be overly thrilled if they do. He has a lot of upside, but comes with a lot of risk. All that to say that I’m pretty meh on Cespedes, I might actually prefer the atrocious defensive outfield of Morse/Werth/Harper with Fielder’s fat arse at 1B to this.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
I'm not sure why he would lie about being 26
There’s little point in lying about being 26, compared to lying about being 16 or 17.
One thing that I notice is how many people think that he’s a sure thing to be an above-average in the majors when he has proved nothing in top-notch level baseball. He’s only proved that he’s very athletic and that he can play in the Cuban leagues(which isn’t proving much at all).
Go ahead, make my day.
by ilikeburritos on Dec 27, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions
he dominated the Cuban League for several seasons
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
I'd always prefer a lineup with Fielder.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Dec 27, 2011 5:14 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
through about 2014
Cepedes should be much better than fielder all-round by the 2015 season
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
He's only about a year and a half younger than Fielder, and he's never played in the majors.
I doubt he EVER at any point in the future puts up a higher WAR than Fielder in any single season. in 2015 Fielder will be 31, still in his prime, and most likely will still be one of the best hitters in the league.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Wary
I’m a little worried about this one. Can he hit a breaking ball or does he have holes in his swing like Willie Mo Pena? Excelling at the equivalent of low A ball does not warrant a $40m contract. Finally, remember Maya. I’m ok with a Nats bid for this guy, but not a high one. I’m disappointed they did not go after Aoki.
I hope they pass on Cespedes
…and try to get a proven MLB CF instead. I’d be okay with a one-year stopgap at this point and maybe go for a free agent next year.
Won't be any CF's available next year
Best OF’er out there will probably be an old Ichiro.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Not true!
Direct from mlbtraderumors
Michael Bourn (30)
Marlon Byrd (35)
Melky Cabrera (28)
Mike Cameron (40)
Curtis Granderson (32) – $13MM club option with a $2MM buyout
Angel Pagan (31)
Aaron Rowand (35)
Grady Sizemore (30)
B.J. Upton (28)
Shane Victorino (32)
There are some good names on this list. Some bad ones, too. But Victorino in Nats Red? That would be doubly good.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
...all of which is precisely why I say let Werth play CF this year
and grab one of these guys next year.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Problem is...
If the Nats put all their eggs in one basket (or 3 as this case may be), then things could easily turn into Buehrle 2.0, where for whatever reasons Bourn, Upton and Victorino sign elsewhere, and we’re left without a CF for an 8th straight year.
If the Nats get Fielder,
there’s a good chance they compete for a pennant this year. In such a case, it might be easier to grab one of the better CF options next year. But I get your point — one in the hand, two in the bush, as they say. Still, I think it’s worth the gamble.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
If we passed on Darvish and Aoki...
We should definitely take a big pass on Cespedes. A proven track record in the Japanese leagues wasn’t enough to sway Rizzo to bid on either. I can’t possibly see him drinking the Yoenis Kool-Aid. Wait it out till next year, or see who becomes available as teams fall by the wayside.
Not bidding on Aoki
Was the single biggest mistake of the Nats offseason.
Even if he turns into a 4th OF type (as seems to be the worst case scenario), it would have cost like $9mil for 4 years of team control. Isn’t that basically what we’ve spent on Ankiel, Bernadina, Morgan, Maxwell, Harris, Dukes, Milledge and Patterson, to put up 4th OF-type numbers over the previous 4 seasons?
I did the math myself
Between the 8 aforementioned CFs, we spent about $10.3mil of them between 2008-2011. It was actually slightly less, as I didn’t bother calculating what percentage of the seasons Bernadina/Maxwell were on the MLB roster (affecting their salary). Instead, I just took the base minimum salary, and used that for the entire season. It’s probably closer to $9mil, when things are all said and done….. point prove.
Ankiel 1.5
Bernadina 1.3
Morgan 0.9
Harris 3.8
Dukes 0.8
Milledge 0.8
Patterson 0.8
Maxwell 0.4
-————————
Total 10.3
I agree
If they win this year, Washington will be a better destination to play in. Not to mention that more guys will have had another year to develop. I still wish the Nats had traded for Torres or even Pagan. Torres can play defense and that doesn’t slump, while Ankiel has a cannon for an arm, I’m still not sold on his range—or his bat for that matter—and if they have to settle why not settle on a defense first CF.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
If thoes 3 sign elsewhere you have decent options in Byrd, Pagan, and maybe Sizemore
who all would be way better than what we have
MOAR SEVERINO!
Relatively
The Nats were the 6th worst team offensively at CF last year. There’s a TON of guys who are better than our current options, but that alone doesn’t make them GOOD options.
I don’t see Byrd and Pagan, at their ages, as a long-term solution at CF. I don’t even see them as a short-term upgrade on a Cameron+Bernadina/Ankiel platoon.
You really dont see Byrd as an upgrade to Cameron, Bernadin, Ankiel
on a year where he broke his face, Byrd was able to put up an OBP of .324. That is way better than Camerons .285, Bernadinas .301, and Ankiels .296. You dont always have to find a long term option. Especially if Taylor developes like they thing, or Eury learns to take a walk
MOAR SEVERINO!
Byrd will be 36 next season
That should be all I need to say, but I see a guy whose power has plummeted (.479 to .429 to .395 SLG). That should send up tons of warning flags, because his value is predicated on his power.
He doesn’t get on base well (5.1 BB% over the past 3 years).
He doesn’t run well (16 for 23 in SB attempts over past 3 years).
His defense is slightly above average (3.9 UZR in CF over past 3 years).
As soon as his power disappears, he has little value. And he’s not getting any younger…
If Johnson could use a platoon of Ankiel (vs. RHP ) and Cameron (vs. LHP). You’d end up with numbers similar to Byrd’s.
Either way, all 3 are terrible long-term solutions, and that’s what the Nats need- not just another 1 year stop-gap until a better solution appears. Since 2006, there have been dozens of great CF options (and some for exceptionally cheap prices), but the Nats have preferred taking the stop-gap approach year after year.
Ankiel and Cameron would come no where near Byrds numbers
Byrd would be a 1 year stop gap till Taylor, Goodwin are ready, or someone else is ready
MOAR SEVERINO!
This
I don’t even know how to argue against Bernadina/Ankiel=Byrd
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
See my post above yours
I never argued Bernadina/Ankiel=Byrd.
I said a platoon between Cameron and either Bernadina or Ankiel=Byrd in 2012.
Look at their splits, and then get back to me.
Nope, not even close
Because you’re working off of the assumption that Byrd, Ankiel, Bernadina and Cameron will all remain static. You’re also assuming that their production will continue to be the same when moved into a platoon role in which they get fewer overall and consecutive PA’s. Both assumptions are wrong.
First of all, Mike Cameron is 38 years old and hasn’t played much the last two years, secondly Byrd had a down year last year, largely due to injury, third the book on Bernadina is out now, and he will have to adjust to the league, not to mention SSS and finally Ankiel tends to get hurt a lot, so even in a platoon I doubt you’d get a full season out of him.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Wait, so Ankiel injury history is a negative, but Byrd’s is a positive? I don’t understand how that works.
Couldn’t you just switch Byrd and Ankiel’s names above and say the exact same thing?
“secondly Ankiel had a down year last year, largely due to injury.”
“finally Byrd tends to get hurt a lot, so even in a platoon I doubt you’d get a full season out of him.”
But let me repeat myself, "But this conversation got sidetracked. I’m in no way saying Cameron, Ankiel or Bernadina are good options at CF. They’re not.
All I’m saying is that Marlon Byrd is an equally shitty option. ESPECIALLY, next year when there will be at least 3 better options available."
No you couldn't
Because Ankiel’s numbers were somewhat consistent with how he’d produced in the past, so you can’t say that he had a down year last year due to injury, but yes you could say that Byrd is injury prone, but when making the comparison you have to consider that an injury to Byrd likely means Werth in CF, while an injury to Ankiel means Cameron facing RH pitching.
Also, I’m not saying Byrd is a good option, just that he’s better than what they currently have.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
You're basing that on the assumption Byrd would take a 1 year deal
But even so, factor in a similar offensive drop off from Byrd, as he’s done in each of the past 4 years. His OPS has dropped relatively consistently from its peak of .842 in 2008 (dropped .032 points to 2009, then .033 to 2010, then .056 to 2011). Assume another .030 points to 2012. That would put Byrd at .689, and surprise, you suddenly have Rick Ankiel (.659 OPS in 2011).
A platoon of Ankiel and Cameron would improve both batters numbers (Ankiel OPS’d .678 vs RHPs, Cameron OPS’d like .950 vs LHPs). Those numbers end up being better than whatever Byrd produces.
by Willl on Dec 27, 2011 1:51 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
So Byrd will regress at 36
But Cameron won’t regress at 38 and Ankiel won’t regress in his 30’s? Doubtful.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
They definitely will
Shave off 30 points from each of their OPSs. It’s still better than Byrd’s.
But this conversation got sidetracked. I’m in no way saying Cameron, Ankiel or Bernadina are good options at CF. They’re not.
All I’m saying is that Marlon Byrd is an equally shitty option. ESPECIALLY, next year when there will be at least 3 better options available.
Maybe that's the difference
I’m not talking about Byrd for next year, I’m talking about him for this year. Also, your assumptions are wrong.
Cameron has an .863 lifetime OPS vs. LHP’s, which I would expect to regress as he is almost 40.
Ankiel has a lifetime OPS of .765 vs. RHP’s and since most pitchers are RH, put the two together and you’ve got a total of around .780 OPS at the absolute best. Marlon Byrd’s career OPS is .759.
When you consider that players in a platoon situation typically regress somewhat, and the fact that Mike Cameron is almost 40 it’s not even close. Byrd is the far better option because he is not succeptible to the late-inning closer or having to carry two players to do the job of 1.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Fair enough
But if you’re talking about Byrd this year, then you have to factor in whatever you would give up to acquire him. Now that Epstein is in full-rebuild mode, I doubt he’s too worried about money, but rather more concerned about restocking as much talent as possible. I can’t imagine they’d just give Byrd away. After all, despite all his flaws he’s still not a bad player (yet).
I also just eyeballed Cameron’s LHP splits earlier, but now that I’ve calculated them out he’s OPS’d .865 vs LHPs from 2009-2011. It doesn’t look like his approach vs lefties has regressed much, even though his stats vs RHPs have.
And I agree Byrd is a better all around player than either of the two other players. But my initial point was that Byrd isn’t a good solution either. There are a lot of red flags (OPS 2008-2011: .842, .808, .775, .717). Maybe if he rebounds this year, he’d be worth a shot. But then again, if he rebounds his price is going to increase considerably, and he won’t be willing to take a one year deal.
Really?
You don’t see Byrd as an improvement? He hasn’t lived up to his contract, but that doesn’t mean he’s not better than the 4th and 5th OF’s the Nats have been running out there. Also, Pagan had a great season year before last that was certainly better than anything that any Nats CF has put up in recent memory. I would take either guy as a short-term upgrade over Ankiel or Bernadina.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Who is Brian Goodwin? Who is Destin Hood?
And even Corey Brown and Eury Perez. They just might convert Kobernus so …
Are these guys just Chopped Liver?
Get the CF from within. Its too complicated otherwise with the Werth 7 year deal in place. He makes it difficult to sign another free agent outfielder yet have developing prospects like Harper et al.
Hood cant play center, and Brown cant hit pitching above AA
that leaves you Taylor, Goodwin, and Perez. Perez dosent walk, and Goodwin and Taylor will both be at some form of A ball. Could they turn out, yes and if they do thats what trades are for
MOAR SEVERINO!
Goodwin is a B graded prospect by Sickels.
The same as Hood. He and Rendon could be in AA ball before the year is out. Then what?
Its better to wait and see … more options are likely to appear.
Adding Cespedes creates a log-jam, a nice one. But …
Might as well get your money’s Werth and play him in CF for now. They do have Cameron, Brown, and Bernadina as backups.
And the jury may still be out on Brown he had an injury filled year in 2011.
That's misleading though
Sickels only gave Goodwin a grade B because he hasn’t seen him play against any minor leaguers and there’s no sample out there to assess him against. Goodwin’s ceiling is as a grade A prospect and in my opinion he’s better than anyone they dealt. I don’t know if he’ll be able to stick in CF, but he’s 3-4 years away at best.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
An "A" prospect 3-4 years away?
He’s a college baseball player … they aren’t sure about him as a major league CF … but he should advance in 2, 3 at the most.
Rendon should advance even quicker.
Then what. Rendon probably could play the outfield. If its choice between Werth and Rendon I would pick Rendon. But now that don’t have that choice. Instead Morse, a solid offensive player gets moved?
This does not look good for Rizzo but I suspect ownership may be to blame at leas in part.
If Rendon can play OF, and is as good as he is supposed to be
Werth becomes an expensive OF 4. Or Werth recovers and you trade Rendon for a great piece.
MOAR SEVERINO!
You're right he should move up in 2-3 years
But not at most, Goodwin is toolsy, which typically means more development time, so I’d say 3 years away, but I think we’re splitting hairs between 2-3 and 3-4 years away. I don’t think moving Rendon to the outfield is a good idea, especially when he so easily could slide over to 2B and provide greater value there, especially if that allowed Espi to slide over to SS. I like Morse too, but he’s racing against the clock and they shouldn’t expect him to be great for the next four years, more like 2, before he starts to decline.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
If Rendon is healthy he should start in AA
not finish the season there.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Dec 27, 2011 5:25 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Hood hasn't been tried in CF YET ...
He has the requisite physical skills … but he was a football player in
high school. Not baseball. He may just now be “getting it”. Like Harper
I expect to see them try him in CF if he continues to work hard on his fielding.
All the reports from Potomac said that Hood was really very bad at the corners
and with where the Nats are right now, and cant bank on Hood learning to play CF. I really think the best Goodwin can do is get to Potomac by the end of the year. I also think that Taylor plays the entire year at Potomac. Under Rizzo you really need to start at AA to have any chance at a September call-up.
MOAR SEVERINO!
Wrong ...
He has improved. Thus the “B” grade. You are thinking of Hagerstown when both he and Perez looked pretty miserable.
No, he really hasnt
read the reports from Sue Dinem, BinM, and others over at natsprospect.com CF is not something you expect Hood to figure out
MOAR SEVERINO!
Sue goes by Sickels.
Sickel’s grade is a “B”. Sue’s favorite CF is Curran … smiles
BinM? Puhleese he called Morse a AAAA player. He doesn’t know baseball.
Again, part of it is motivation on Hood’s part. He has the requisite physical skills just as Goodwin does.
Besides Hood, Perez, Brown, Taylor and even Curran
Have to be better than Morgan the designated CF of the future.
Stickles grade is mainly based on hitting
and Hood has enough of a bat to stick at the corners. Also, just because a player is someones favorite, dosent mean they think they project the best. Severino has to be my favorite pitcher, do I think he wil be better than Storen, Clipp, etc. Hell No
I will agree that they are all better than Morgan
MOAR SEVERINO!
Hood isn't my favorite Morse is ...
But I do know he has physical skills and he has spent 3 years in the minors already. He has also matured a great deal. He may now be ready to learn how to play CF.
You can’t know until you try him.
And I am with Davey Johnson: Go with a left-handed power bat if you can. That my friend would be Brown … not Goodwin.
That would be Harper
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Dec 27, 2011 5:22 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
If Harper can learn to play the outfield ...
And he has looked pretty miserable at times …
Hood can learn to play CF possibly. Its hard to tell without trying.
A passable CF is not a good idea
The players who have the most impact on the game defensively are the SS, CF and 2B in that order and just as you don’t want a passable SS, you shouldn’t want a passable CF either especially someone like Hood who’s bat isn’t good enough to put up with passable defense.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Rizzo started Strasburg in AA
And moved Harper there in his first year?
If Goodwin is that good “A grade” he will advance just as Harper did.
Harper and Goodiwn were both Juco
but Bryce Harper is Bryce Harper. Yes Goodwin is older, but Goodwin wont be jumping Potomac like Harper did
MOAR SEVERINO!
If he hits close to .400 with a .400 OBP?
Catcher named David Freitas had a .408 OBP in Hagerstown. The only reason he won’t be in AA is because he’s a catcher. ;)
Freitas never went to Potomac
If Goodwin hits .400 with a .500 OBP he will be sent to Potomac sometime during the season, and if he keep thoes numbers up he might get a month in AA. Resonable expectations have him ending at Hagerstown, or Potomac
MOAR SEVERINO!
In other words ...
You really do have to wait and see before jumping the shark with another free agent signing of at least 2-3 years.
Unless the CF is named Borjous or Upton (and even then Goodwin has the advantage of the LEFT HANDED BAT, like Morgan. Because both Goodwin and Brown are left-handed Johnson at the least will be reluctant to make any sort of semi-permanent move until they see what they have.
The Nationals window to win
Is within the next 4 years. (Gio, Zimmermann, and others will hit FA).
As Jeff pointed out, Goodwin, Perez and Taylor are the only real CFs in the system. Are you really willing to delay getting a CF 2-3 years while each of them develops? Especially when Perez put up a .640 OPS in Potomac and Goodwin has not played an inning of professional baseball, also notwithstanding the concerns about whether he can stay at CF.
The Nats need to sign a CF this year or next year. Given that the chance has passed this offseason, they have to get it done next year.
Doesn't matter
His offense is pathetic. If he put up an identical line in the majors to what he did in A ball, he’d instantly be one of the worst CF in baseball.
Franklin Gutierrez is one of the best CFers in the game. It doesn’t change the fact that he’s still a pretty terrible baseball player.
I don't disagree with your overall point, but that's a silly comp
If Brown put up the line in the majors that he put up in AA ball, he’d instantly be one of the best CF in baseball. And besides that, if he put up his A ball line in MLB, he’d be a very good CF in MLB also. In three seasons of A ball Brown OPS’d .924 (low A), .843 (A ball) and .873 (high A). Anyone who did that in the majors would be right behind Josh Hamilton (.882), and just ahead of Shane Victorino (.847) and Andrew McCutchen (.820). Don’t knock that level of performance.
Since I haven’t seen him play I can’t vouch for Brown’s defense. But of course Brown’s problem is that, except for the last 5-6 weeks of the 2011 season, he hasn’t been able to hit a lick at the AAA level. HIs strong finish made him a player to keep an eye on in 2012, but he’s not anyone to really expect anything out of at this point.
I stand corrected
That’s what I get for reading Jeff Passan this morning, barely made mention of the CF’s that’ll be available.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
wow, cabrera is only 28? Why do I feel like he’s been arounf for 15 years already…. Sepaking of him, looking at the Nats roster today he might of been the steal of the offseason. Certainly would love to have scooped him up now…
"We're not here to try; we're here to win" - Brooks Laich
offensively, perhaps
defensively, I think I’d take Werth over Cabrera in CF.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Ladson actualy didnt shoot down the Fielder rumors this time
@washingnats Why the continued speculation of fans about Fielder coming to Nats?Seems Rizzo has made it clear this isn’t in the plans,right?
14 hours ago
in reply to ↑
@washingnatsWilliam Ladson
@olddominiongirl I really don’t know. I hope to know more soon
MOAR SEVERINO!
Cody Ross
I’m not opposed to the idea of Cespedes, especially if we are out on Fielder, but I don’t know why Cody Ross has been mainly forgotten as an option in CF next year.
Ross’s line last year: .240 .325 .730
Nats 2011 CF production: .245 .307 .678
It is also worth noting that Ross played half of his games in the cavernous AT&T park in SF, and also had an unlucky year with a .279 BABIP. If Ross returns to his career .301 BABIP and gets a small bump for playing in friendlier confines, he could be more than just serviceable next year.
Of course, he is by no means a long term solution, but if the money is going to be spent elsewhere (Fielder??), then Ross is a cheap alternative with more upside than anything we have now.
I'm in favor of this
Partly because Ross is coming off a down year in which he had some minor injuries, he’s better than his line last year and when he gets hot can carry a team. Also, it would be nice to have him when the Nats face Halladay, in case you don’t know this Cody Ross spelled backwards comes out to Ssory Doc.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
Latest reports have Ross discussing a deal with the Rockies...
Nats may have missed out on that opportunity…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 27, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions
We need Prince, not a CF
With such dearth of CF options available this off-season, all this talk of “needing” to acquire a CF reflects the mindset of a small market team. We just signed a new TV contract, we have a paltry team salary, and the richest owners in baseball. And with the addition of Gio, the Nats have one of the top 10 starting rotations in MLB to accompany an exciting array of young and promising position players. We are in a position to compete for the division crown as soon as next year if we go out and sign Prince. And sign him to an 8 year contract somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 million. Rizzo needs to jump on this one. A power hitting first baseman as good and as reliable as Fielder (yes, “reliable”: despite all the talk of him being over weight, he never gets injured and rarely takes days off—-just check his stats) doesn’t come along very often. If the Werth signing was our chance to “make a statement”, the opportunity to sign Prince is our chance to actually sign one of the best players in the game.
I’m sorry, but all this talk about signing Crisp and Ludwick and BJ Upton (Upton? Seriously? Are we trying to set the all time record for offensive strikeouts in a season?) is small time chatter. Furthermore, the signing of Prince would obviate our need to sign a mediocre CF. Our 2013 line-up would boast Morse in LF, Werth in CF, Harper in RF, Prince at 1B, Espinoza at 2B, Desmond at SS, Zimm at 3B, Ramos at C. And if Desmond ends up being a bust, we slide Espinoza over to SS and hopefully fill 2B with Rendon (if he pans out). That sounds like a championship-caliber team to me. Sign Prince!
Where am I wrong?
I'm not totally against it
But you’re shooting for a small window. Fielder is a great player and he may be able to overcome his weight issues as he gets older, but more than likely he won’t be able to and you’ll get a very good 1B for the next two years, an above average one for two years after and four years of someone who either doesn’t play or that you wished didn’t play. Furthermore, while that outfield might be okay today, Werth will be 34, Morse is on the wrong side of 30 and Harper is still an unknown defensively. That means in just two years, you’ll either have to get rid of Morse or trot out a 36 year old CF along with a 34 year old LF. Not bad if you like bloop singles and singles that turn in to doubles.
Also, when you consider that Desmond isn’t an especially good SS, that means that you would have a league average—at best—defensive player at SS, an above average defensive player at 2B and a below average defensive player in CF which would make the team pretty weak up the middle, or rather where defense is most important.
In the short term, Fielder is a great answer, even if he weakens the team defensively because of the way pieces have to move. In the long run, someone will regret that contract and given the Nats will be regretting Werth’s deal about that time I don’t think they should sign Fielder, although I’ll be happy if they do, if that makes any sense.
Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!
"Where am I wrong?" Only in saying that it's a new TV deal. It's a renegotiation of the existing deal...
And that’s just nitpicking for friendly humor’s sake. I just spent 1500 words making the same argument you are making here. And you’ve done so much more succinctly…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 27, 2011 5:05 PM EST up reply actions
Is the renegotiation done? I would hesitate to count money towards a budget
When that money relies on the agreement of Angelos.
Not done that I've read anywhere, and making a deal based on what they expect to get...
…Is probably a real bad idea especially w/ Angelos involved as you suggest, but the Lerners can already afford it i’d bet.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Dec 27, 2011 5:20 PM EST up reply actions
Angelos doesn't have a say really, the value is determined by an arbiter I believe.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
To Pig Pen (not sure if this is a double-post)
Pig.Pen,
Those are all legitimate points, especially your points regarding Werth and Desmond. If Desmond doesn’t work out at SS this year (and I agree with your assessment of his sub-par defensive skill-set), who do we put there? I agree with one of your other posts that Espinoza is adequate as a SS, but I’m not really convinced. Also, I agree that Werth would make for a weak defensive CF option, but what are our options with him between 2012 and 2014? Left Field with Harper in RF (assuming, of course that Harper pans out)? I think that perhaps our biggest point of disagreement regards the length of time that Morse will be good. You said that you think Rizzo can only bank on two more years of high quality production out of him. This might be correct. However, if he has 4 or 5 years left in the tank, then signing Prince for 8 years fills another outfield slot by allowing the Nats to play Morse as the RF for the next 4-5 years.
I still agree with you, though, that the biggest problem with my argument is that this means that we are stuck with Werth in CF, which is less than desirable (to put it euphemistically). But don’t you think adding Prince to the line-up would make up for a poor defensive CF, at least for the next 5 years? Especially since it gives us the chance to improve our offensive production at SS and 2B if Espinoza moves over and Rendon comes through?
Also, Fielder is young so I’m not so sure he will deteriorate so quickly—-even in spite of his hefty proportions. But who knows—you might be right and I might be wrong on that one. He certainly doesn’t have the look of an athlete with the potential for longevity. It’s a risk, but unlike the Werth deal, I think it’s a risk we should take. Comparatively speaking, at least with respect to Fielder the potential upside is an all-star 1B for years to come. One of the best players in the game. With Werth, the upside was an above average player who hopefully defies logic by staying healthy and decent late into his 30s, even though he couldn’t stay healthy for a single season in his 20s.
I guess in sum my main argument is: The Lerners are billionaires! Sign Prince!
I think Cespedes is a fair gamble and we should sign him
He was not merely good in Cuban Ball but more bonds like. He hit more than 30 homers in Cuba last season. They play a 94 game schedule. That translates out to well more than 50 in 162 game schedule. So, I would say he is a fair bet to hit more than 30 in the majors right away. If he can hit the breaking ball he will combine that 30 home runs with a better than .300 average. If he can’t then he turns into Will Venable (padres) plus 10 homers, and that is a fairly high floor. He has 30+ SB speed and very good defense. A .230 hitter with 30 homers, 30 SBs, and very good defense is not worth $40 million normally, but considering we have a deep hole at CF, he is probably a fair bet. If he can hit the breaking ball then he is a steal!
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Also this is not necessarily a Fielder or Cepedes arguement
We could sign both. If we did then I say Werth leads off, then Cepedes, Zim, Prince, Morse, Ramos, Espinosa, then Espinosa. I love this lineup.
"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James
Me too
Dunno which I like best: Werth leading off, or Espinosa hitting twice
"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford
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