Who could land Fielder?
This is a straight copy paste from my long winded response in a thread.
As painful as it is to wait, I think the market for Fielder will actually develop faster once the price comes down a bit. I fully believe that the players involved in Fielder will be the Mariners, Cubs, Orioles, Jays, Brewers, and Nats with mystery teams being the Dodgers, Marlins, and Giants. Throw the Rangers in there as a very slight possiblity.
Out of those, the price needs to drop SIGNIFICANTLY for the Mariners, Orioles, Brewers or Giants to pursue him. The Mariners apparently reported that they operated at a loss last year so I don’t see any money for Fielder coming from them. The O’s probably have cash but we all know that Angelos doesn’t spend plus I doubt that Fielder would want to go to a team so far away from playoff contention and just adding him won’t bring them there. The Brewers could land him on a short deal to make up for the fact that Braun won’t be around for 50 games and try a make another run at the post season, but I think he wants to be paid now and Boras won’t allow something like a one or two year deal which is all Milwaukee relatively has in the pot as far as funds. The Giants can’t come to a deal with Lincecum so I doubt they could come to a deal with Prince.
The Rangers would most likely have to lose out on Darvish to go for Prince. Adding just one of them probably puts them as WS favorites, but considering they had the most potent offense last year, I feel they push to get Darvish done and signed and Fielder doesn’t go to Dallas.
Now for the true contenders. The Cubs, Jays, and the Curly W. The Cubs need to decide what they are going to do with Garza. They are on the verge of rebuilding and by the time that they are really ready to compete, especially after clearing house to get Garza last year, they will need probably 4 to 5 years to rebuild and get into contention level. Fielder could be a guy to build around, but if 4 to 5 years out is your intended sweet spot for contention, Fielder would be of much less value than he is now, meaning that Fielder would likely WANT to go to a contender NOW.
The Jays. This makes sense having hitters like Fielder and Joey Bats in the lineup and could do a great deal of damage in the AL East. That being said they also need more solid pitching. I think that the Jays have more than a few pieces to fill in order to overtake the Sox, Bombers, and the Rays. Fielder could fit here but again, more pieces are needed to complete this team. Still, they can compete with signing him now and competing with one or two years, still getting max value from Fielder. The desire to force a five year deal or less is what prohibits the Jays from being more in contention in the Fielder race though.
The Dodgers. My feelings here are that the Dodgers as a dark horse candidate could be a very serious suitor for Prince. Loney is a really, really consistent 1B. His downside is his lack of home runs, even considering Dodger Stadium is spacious. If the Dodgers wanted to spend though, it makes sense to push it over the edge and up the offense. The downsides here are obviously that Loney was offered arbitration and is well cheaper than Prince. Also they just signed Kemp long term and are going to be going through ownership change. This most likely prevents the Dodgers from signing Fielder.
This brings us to are much loved Curly W, the Nats. The Nats have a few obvious pieces holding back the bidding on Prince. 1. LaRoche is currently signed for this year WITH a 1 Mil buyout remaining, thus 9 Mil owed. That is a tough pill to swallow to have the guy ride the bench with a 9 mil salary. His defense is tops, and his bat isn’t terrible when healthy. Problem is he is coming back from labrum surgery and although it is stated he 100%, it’s hard to really know. 2. The People’s Champion Mike Morse. Enough said we all as fans saw what he can do at first base and with the bat. His downside is his age, turns 30 this year, and if really had a career year or not. Now signing Prince doesn’t necessarily mean that Morse is gone, he would just play LF, but for how long? The logjam here is two outfield spots are taken by Werth and eventually Harper. You could say that Morse is in the OF this year with Fielder at 1st, but what happens when Harper comes up and you don’t want Werth as your starting CF? This is probably the biggest of the conundrums stirred up in the FO right now, what to do with Morse. Marrero and Moore are too far off the radar and most likely will not pan out to be anywhere close to Morse or Fielder.
My suggestion still hasn’t changed. Make the deal for Prince. Suck up the fact that you either bench LaRoche as a late inning defensive replacement or send him packing and eat a majority of his salary when you move him. Not a bad guy, but he really shouldn’t have tried to play out there with his injury, and should have had the surgery earlier. He doesn’t make the situation any easier because if he just had the surgery after ST last year, he easily could have been swinging a bat in the minors by the end of the year, showing what he is capable of. Morse stays in left and Harper starts in right, Werth in center. I know most feel Werth isn’t a capable defender in center and although that might be right, I feel that after such a bad season last year, Werth bumps up his entire game and plays very strongly in center next year, playing high caliber defense, his bat comes back a bit, and the “terrible outfield defense” of Morse, Werth and Harper is not even thought about. Prince brings a new power facet to the team and we have a REAL shot not only at the postseason, but also at making it to the WS.
I think we have the ability, funds, and means to strike now with Fielder. It would definitely make the future interesting, but it is hard to argue about the short term gains that this deal could make. Plus it seems as if everywhere you turn, there is some sort of link from Fielder to the Nats. It almost seems like Boras is trying to hard sell the Nats and Nats fans on Fielder. Sure it would be a good signing for Boras, but I think he is looking to what this signing could springboard the Nats into. His future with this team could mean long term extensions for his young guys like Stras and Harper, meaning good payout for him and an annual contender in the District.
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I agree, to an extent.
The real key is to not go too long, and to try to front-load it. Something like, for example, six guaranteed years and three optional years – the first year is an exclusive player option, the second year is a mutual option with a smallish buyout if the club declines, and the third year is an exclusive club option. Of course, I’m not sure if that type of arrangement is allowed under the CBA (I’m not sure of any other examples of this type of structuring).
Both sides win: Prince would get a guaranteed seven years, with the option to walk after six if he feels it’s in his best interest and he can get more elsewhere. That’s as long as he’s going to get from anyone. And if he’s still capable of playing, he might get paid right up to the end of year nine.
We get a guy who will certainly be good for the next five years, plus at most two years of declining performance. Or, best-case scenario, 9 years of good baseball. If we front-load it, we have more room at the back end, making it more likely that Prince will have the year two and three options picked up if he picks up his options – at a time when his market will not be anywhere near what it is now.
At least I think it’s a good idea. Other’s might disagree.
as noted elsewhere whenever this is mentioned
teams very rarely (almost never) agree to a front-loaded deal.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
There is really no good reason for a team to do this
It’s certainly not something a team should want to do. Ever.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
nice run-through
although I might disagree on a couple of points:
- Angelos isn’t cheap; he just spends badly (Belle, extending Roberts, etc.)
- Rangers are a strong possibility, IMO, if they fail to sign Darvish. They won’t sign both, but I think that, if Darvish turns down their offer and Fielder’s still around, they use the returned posting fee, money set aside for salary, and some of their media revenue, and swoop in.
- ALR was in all likelihood trying to justify his contract, and to “play through the pain”, not conceding until it was clear to himself and everyone else that the shoulder needed major surgery. (“credit” for him not having the surgery after ST should probably go to the crack Nats medical staff (imagine sarcasm font)).
Best case scenario if the Nats do sign Fielder? In 2012 ALR is the LH pinch-hitter Davey likes, and the OF (sooner or later) is Morse-Werth-Harper. Nats then get a CF in the off-season, either as a FA, or using Morse as a trade chip, shift Werth to LF, and decline ALR’s option.
Opinions may not necessarily reflect those of management. YMMV.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
Agreed
But I still don’t see Prince WANTING to sign in B-More. They are far far away from making a run. They have mediocre pitching, a really really good catcher, a CF who could be good but not a super stud like they play him out to be, i.e. NOT Kemp, and thats about it. Fielder would only be improving that club by a bit, but they won’t be in contention until years later. At least Werth saw what we had to offer here and just went with it. Now we are showing that we can at least think about contention and signing guys like Fielder are easier swayed our way, unlike Tex.
Name a number between three and five.
.............
.............
Threeve.
Yes, Mattionals, I agree.
Don’t think Prince wants to play for the Birds…As nice a park offensively as Camden Yards is, being on a team with that weak pitching and in a division with the likes of the Yankees, Rays and Red Sox can’t be appealing.
I wonder about the Dodgers? I guess Boras could be waiting to see what happens with the ownership situation there….The right owner could mean big bucks. Ultimately, I think the Cubs, Dodgers and possibly Texas are his ultimate destination( though Darvish signing obviously decreases the likelihood).
Maybe some Nats fan here can dissuade me and convince me that DC is the place for him. It would certainly give you guys an interesting lineup.
I think the Blue Jays are more likely than the Dodgers
I don’t think that Boras is going to wait until the Dodgers’ ownership situation is resolved. The original plan was for that to happen by April 30, and that timetable is now likely kaput given the recent bankruptcy court ruling concerning the media rights. Do you think Fielder won’t be signed before spring training, much less before the season starts? Neither do I.
Well, I just checked odds for Fielder signing on Bovada (formerly Bodog)...
and neither the Dodgers or Blue Jays are even listed with odds…
So you’re probably right about the Dodgers…But the Jays don’t appear likely either. Interestingly, you guys, the Nats, are the favorites with current odds at 4/5 !
Seems like cause to be optimistic.
Next are the Mariners at 3/1 . The Rangers are next at 7/2. Upon closer inspection Seattle is the team that needs him the most…maybe that means they’ll be willing to pay Boras’ price.
Seattle "needs him the most"
I suppose that’s sort of a relative question. Several different ways of looking at it. Say Seattle gets Fielder, where do they finish in their division next year? Still no higher than third, and definitely not in the playoffs.
Say Nats get Fielder, where do they finish year? Maybe in the playoffs.
I’d say the Nats have a greater need, at least next year (of course, looking further out, there are going to be more considerations, but I just felt compelled to comment on the presumption).
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
Well, what I meant there was that Seattle is definitely the weakest team offensively...
Of the teams that are supposedly in the hunt for Fielder. Of course the Nats stand to benefit more in terms of making a playoff push, but, even without Prince, the Nationals have a solid team.
The Mariners offense is desperately in need of a big bat in the middle of their lineup. They literally have no consistent power threat…..Therefore their “need” is greatest. That is what I meant…
Sure, no argument regarding Seattle's atrocious offense
When Adam Kennedy is one of your brighter lights, your offense is in need of a serious pick-me-up.
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
If the Nats pick up Fielder
And moved LaRoche for a SP, and bring up Harper in July or so, this could be an 85 win team and definite contenders. Ask for as much luck as the team had last year (which wasnt a ton) and you are looking at sure fire Wild Card type of team.
This team might be one year away from being legit contenders, with or without Fielder, but adding the big guy would definitely help a year sooner.
Problem: LaRoche isn't going to bring a starting pitcher
The trade market for a marginally above replacement level 1b with an $8,000,000 contract and coming off shoulder surgery is likely to be … slow. If you sign Fielder you’re really better off keeping LaRoche as a LH bench bat/defensive replacement until he proves that he can play, then move him when you get closer to the deadline in July (making room for Harper or Marrero, whoever is ready).
Good point
You could move him if the majority of his salary was swallowed. I can see him putting up a 1.2 WAR type of season, and maybe a bit more if dealt to a team that plays in a hitter friendly park.
Still not going to bring back anyone better
than Lannan or Detwiler.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"
No, but it might bring a AA prospect whose ceiling is higher than Lannan or Detwiler...
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
This is already an 85 win team.
We won 81 games without Strasburg, Gio, LaRoche, Zimmerman or Harper for most if not all of the season. Even with an injury here and there, it shouldn’t be nearly as bad as last season. We are a much better team all-around and even by ignoring potential progression of our young core, we are a 85 win team.
By adding Fielder(and subtracting LaRoche), this team has a strong chance of being a 90 win team. We would have to get lucky with a lack of injuries, but it would be entirely possible.
Skins rule
I think the Blue Jays are strong contenders..
AA has made some good moves and if the price comes down, which it seems like it must…
The Jays could offer an extra year or two over the Nats because of the DH…
I find Rizzo hard to read. Does he want Prince or not? I think the fact that he is 5’11 with no range is not a selling pt, but I’m not an expert of defense and I haven’t really seen him play.

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