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The Post-2011 MLB Winter Meetings Big Question: Are The Washington Nationals Going For Yu Darvish?

From what New York Yankees' GM Brian Cashman said during a recent MLB Network Radio interview you'd be led to believe that NY won't be bidding on Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish over the next four business days before the 5:00 pm EST Wednesday (12/14) deadline to submit bids for the 25-year-old pitcher. Darvish announced last night he would be entering the posting process and looking to make the move to the majors. After talking about all the big-money contracts the Yankees already have, Cashman said, "I think if you follow the breadcrumbs of our conversation we just had. I think you can deduce a lot," about the Yankees' intentions.

Star-divide

"I think chasing anything that's going to be very costly," the Yankees' GM continued, "... if you're the media I think you'll be at risk of putting us in those categories right now." ESPN.com's Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) wrote on the Twitter today that he was hearing the same thing, "Yankees unsure about whether they will be bidding on Yu Darvish. Their interest reminds me of their feelings about C.J. Wilson: Lukewarm." Oddly enough that was the same adjective Toronto Sun writer Bob Elliot used to describe the Blue Jays' interest a week or so ago in an article entitled, "Jays target closer Bell", in which he wrote that we should, "Consider the Jays interest lukewarm," since "insiders" told him, "Jays president Paul Beeston is not a fan of the current posting system in place," which is expected to (between the posting fee and contract if one's agreed upon) cost whichever team wins the bidding close to $100 million dollars.

Jays' GM Alex Anthopolous declined to comment when he was asked if Toronto would get involved in the posting process, telling New York Times' writer David Waldstein in an article entitled, "Japanese Team Makes Its Star Pitcher Available", that he, "'... would never talk about that publicly. Obviously, he is a very talented pitcher, and I think it’s good for baseball if he comes to pitch here, but I would not comment any more than that.'"

D.C. GM Mike Rizzo, whose Nationals are mentioned in the NY Times' article as potential suitors, wasn't ready to publicly commit to participating in the process either, telling reporters, including Washington Post writer Adam Kilgore who quoted the general manager in a Nationals Journal post entitled, "Yu Darvish will be posted, and the Nationals are interested", that, "'Strategically, that doesn’t benefit us to announce whether we’re going to bid or not on him. We’ve scouted him. We like him. We recognize his ability levels.'"

"'He’s an extremely talented player,'" Brian Cashman's quoted stating in the NYTimes' Mr. Waldstein's article, "'I don’t think that’s in dispute. But in terms of how it transitions and everything like that, I wouldn’t want to speculate.'" The Red Sox, another oft-rumored suitor, aren't sure if they'll get involved either, at least according to new GM Ben Cherington, who told reporters in a Winter Meetings-closing press conference transcribed at Boston.com that for the Red Sox, "'I'm not sure the timing this offseason puts us in a position to be the most aggressive team. But he's a good pitcher and we have a lot of respect for him. We'll certainly discuss it and figure out if a [bid] makes sense.'"

"Cherington said the #RedSox were lukewarm on the idea of adding Darvish," Boston Globe Red Sox beat writer Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) wrote on the Twitter Thursday after the press conference referenced above, "Didn't anticipate trying to get him." "Certainly if a team is going to be posting and trying to sign [Darvish]," the Sox' GM told reporters, "it's going to be part of the front end of the rotation and we feel pretty good about that part of our team." Is anyone going to bid on Darvish? How about the Texas Rangers, whose GM traveled to Japan to scout Darvish this year? According to a report by DallasNews.com's Evan Grant entitled, "Report: Yu Darvish to be posted; will Rangers play?", his sources, "... have indicated the Rangers simply aren't willing to make a $100 million gamble that may limit future flexibility. Especially since Darvish is unproven."

Perhaps the prevailing sentiment on display here is what led Darvish's agent to tell reporters recently as quoted in a Sports Hochi article transcribed at Yakubaka.com, "... that if they can not get an offer that is considered 'appropriate for Japan's Ace,' they will simply withdraw from negotiations and Darvish will return to Japan in 2012."

Still the Rangers are pointed to as the likely destination for Darvish by executives quoted by the NY Times' Mr. Waldstein and the Yankees, Blue Jays and even the Oakland Athletics are mentioned by FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal as teams that will be involved in the bidding with the Red Sox a reluctant "wild card" in the process according to the bow-tied FOXSports.com reporter due to their past experience with the posting process when they signed the last great Japanese pitcher, Daisuke Matsuzaka. Yahoo!Sports.com's Jeff Passan points to the Rangers and Jays are the favorites to land Darvish, and mentions the Chicago Cubs, LA Dodgers, Angels, Mariners, Nationals and even the Marlins as other possibilities.

Darvish's father is quoted in articles translated at Yakubaka.com decrying the posting system and reiterating that both his son and the Nippon Ham Fighters he's pitched for the last seven years understand this could all end with the right-hander returning for an eighth season. "If you spend a lot of money on the posting fee," Darvish's father is quoted stating, "there is a chance negotiations will not go well because that amount (or close to it) is deducted from the salary." $20-$50 million for the posting fee and another $50-$60M over 5-6 years in a contract? Will any MLB team go that high? Will Yu Darvish pitch in an MLB city next season?

The first part of the posting process concludes next Wednesday at 5:00 pm EST...

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I just don't see it.

If your chasing Buerhle, Darvish isn’t the #2 answer. He’ll be going through a divorce, a culture change, a league change, etc. etc. Is this the guy you need if you are looking for a mentor. Of course not, so is he good enough to throw money at? Thats the basic debate which we all know is uncertain.

I think you at least need a major league pitcher to throw money at that has experience throwing every five days to teach these guys to improve, CJ wilson would have been a better option. To me its a clear no for the Nats.

If we can get Oswalt on a two year deal I’d be pumped. He at least can mentor these guys.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 9, 2011 12:28 AM EST reply actions  

Honestly, if you want a "mentor" type more than anything esle...

The best choice is probably Livan Hernandez. [shrug]

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 12:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Mentors

The difference between Livo and Oswalt is that Oswalt is actually good although he doesn’t have a rubber arm. Also, who are Strasburg and Zimmermann going to more easily identify with, a Cuban slop thrower or a former ace from Mississippi?

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 8:23 AM EST up reply actions  

+1

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 9, 2011 9:27 AM EST up reply actions  

Oswalt especially doesn't have a "rubber" back.

But point. I dunno, he just always looks…grumpy. It’s silly of me, but I don’t feel like he’s great in the clubhouse.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:07 AM EST up reply actions  

I've heard the exact opposite

Oswalt is supposed to be one of the best clubhouses guys in baseball, however, he is fiercely competitive, like John Smoltz competitive.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 10:18 AM EST up reply actions  

Fixed

Zimmermann. :p

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 7:54 PM EST up reply actions  

If they go for Darvish, it's not to be a mentor to others for a couple of years

It would be to pitch at or near to the top of the rotation for six years. Different mission statement.

by d_c_guy on Dec 9, 2011 12:50 AM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Yup

If no veteran pitcher was available at the right price then why not aim for a top 3 of Strasburg, Zimmerman and Darvish from 2013 onwards. Could be dominant.

| 23.1 | .647 | .605 | 15.6 | 28.3 | 21.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 118 | 100 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | .214 |

by MadBlaze on Dec 9, 2011 5:57 AM EST up reply actions  

Or

Why not wait until next year when Matt Cain may be available. I would much rather have Cain than Wilson or Buerhle or Darvish or Oswalt or maybe even two of the three.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 8:25 AM EST up reply actions  

again +1

I guess my underlining statement is that the Nats don’t need to hurry. Only concern of course is if the Nats hand the ball of to Detwiler, Peacock and Milone more and they get pummeled. That would destroy their potential trade value.

Though they may succeed.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 9, 2011 9:29 AM EST up reply actions  

I'm okay with Detwiler

I think it’s time for him to sink or swim, Peacock might not be too bad, but I don’t want to see them rush Milone.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 9:47 AM EST up reply actions  

I have said this before, but:

As a #5 pitcher, Ross Detwiler is not ideal, but he’s not a bad plan either.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I think he is ideal

I think the worst case scenario is that he pitches like a #5, but the best case scenario is that he pitches like a #2 because the stuff is there.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 10:17 AM EST up reply actions  

Sure

We have enough arms that we could be OK even without a Darvish or Cain type acquisition. I like the idea of stockpiling pitching though and Darvish has some otherworldly stuff.

| 23.1 | .647 | .605 | 15.6 | 28.3 | 21.9 | 6.7 | 0.9 | 7.7 | 17.8 | 20.7 | 118 | 100 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.2 | .214 |

by MadBlaze on Dec 10, 2011 1:42 AM EST up reply actions  

the problem with big name japanese free agent pitchers

is they expect to be paid like MLB big name pitchers… but they arent. I don’t know what it is.. I think I heard the ball is smaller etc etc but these big time japanese pitchers are (historically) not as good as advertised. Please dont spend an arm and a leg for this guy,

sincerely,

kei igawa and diasuke matsusaka.

Check out my fantasy baseball blog: http://agressivebaserunning.wordpress.com. updated 4/23

by martin23s on Dec 9, 2011 2:06 AM EST reply actions  

None of those

were/are free agents. Why go through the posting process if they are free agents?

by infimum on Dec 9, 2011 2:39 AM EST up reply actions  

I played in Japan and there are two big factors for pitchers

First thing, is that the strike zone is roughly the size of a Buick, the second is that they tend to nibble, but get away with it because of the aforementioned strike zone but also because Japanase hitters just aren’t very aggressive on average. It’s almost like they’re trying to not make an out instead of trying to get a hit. Ichiro is the prototypical hitter in that he hits everything but he sacrifices power for contact so mistakes go for singles instead of dingerz.

Couple other not so small factors is that the ball is softer and maybe slightly smaller, sure the parks are small, but the first time you catch one and it goes all of 375 ft. you know there’s something very different about the baseball.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 8:22 AM EST up reply actions  

FWIW, they've pretty much switched to an MLB-equivalent baseball

Can’t speak to the other factors though. When did you play in Japan?

by d_c_guy on Dec 9, 2011 9:13 AM EST up reply actions  

That's cool

I played over there in 01-02, it wasn’t the size that got me, it was the softness. It seemed like they just didn’t wind the ball as tight.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 9:44 AM EST up reply actions  

Yeah, the ball switch started happening in '08 or so.

And starting this year they’ve standardized it for official major league games there.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Really?

The ball is going to be flying out of those tiny parks then, except the strike zone will probably move from the size of a Buick to the size of a Hummer. Of course the guijin strike zone has always been the size of a Hummer so they’ll probably move it to anything that doesn’t get past the catcher.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 10:16 AM EST up reply actions  

What's your name?

Since you are complaining about the strike zone, I assume you are a batter. I am looking at those two years. There doesn’t seem to be a player that fits your description.

by infimum on Dec 9, 2011 2:21 PM EST up reply actions  

I think Darvish is a sure thing to be roughly as good as Jordan Zimmerman

Is that worth big money? Well not $100 million for 5 years in my opinion. But $75 million yes! So I would bid accordingly and just see what happens.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Dec 9, 2011 2:54 AM EST reply actions  

There is one small advantage to a potential Darvish contract

Because half of the fee is front-loaded, the on-going impact on the teams salary is reduced. This could be helpful for the Nationals, who are reasonably cheap now, but will likely become much more expensive as the team ages.

by chubias on Dec 9, 2011 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

I can almost guarantee you the Lerners would rather pay out any set amount of money (like the total value of a contract) 5 years from now rather than today. Unless they have strict reasons to keep a somewhat consistent year-to-year budget limit, it should usually be in their favor to backload any big expenses.

A $50 million posting fee paid today is $50 mil the Lerners can’t invest and get a return on.

by brs03 on Dec 9, 2011 11:16 AM EST up reply actions  

Although I would never say something as absurd as TINSTAAPP,

I will state categorically that there’s no such thing as a sure thing.
TNSTAAST.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 9, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

I don't think he is anywhere near a shore thing to be as good as Zimmermann,

I don’t think anyone who hasn’t pitched a major league season at a high level is a sure thing to ever do so.

Aim for the head baby Jesus

by Doncosmic on Dec 9, 2011 7:05 PM EST up reply actions  

If Darvish doesn't sign this year

does the posting process start over again next year or does his status change?

by PerryMason on Dec 9, 2011 7:57 AM EST reply actions  

I think he would be even if he didn't post.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:11 AM EST up reply actions  

This.

If Darvish waits until after the 2012 season, he’ll be an unrestricted free agent I’m not sure, however, if he’d then be affected by the new CBA …

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 11, 2011 11:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Would be a free agent after 2013, pitched 7 years, 9 til free agency in Japan...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Dec 11, 2011 2:58 PM EST up reply actions  

Thanks

I obviously misrecollected the facts…

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Dec 11, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions  

The Nats will definitely bid on Darvish

To what extent remains to be seen, but the way everyone seems to be playing coy about Darvish leads me to believe that there will be a lot of teams in this hunt. That being said, I could see a team like the Red Sox or the Giants bidding a huge fee and then not really negotiating with Darvish just to keep him from other teams.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 8:17 AM EST reply actions  

I think the Nats will go all in. Like many have said before, it’s probably a big deal to Rizzo to not lose prospects or draft picks. The posting fee can probably be listed as a business loss byt the Lerners to offset any potential profit…you know, for tax purposes. (half-joking)

by RoscoeNats on Dec 9, 2011 8:41 AM EST up reply actions  

They better be quiet about it

The team picks the winning bid, and they are under no obligation to pick the highest bid. If they think someone is trying to game the system, they can choose another bid.

by d_c_guy on Dec 9, 2011 9:14 AM EST up reply actions  

I’m with you. There’s more than opening envelopes and picking the highest number. They must have measures in place to know if somebody is screwing with them.

by RoscoeNats on Dec 9, 2011 9:24 AM EST up reply actions  

True

But remember what the A’s did the last time Hishasi Iwakuma was posted, they put in a very high bid an then barely negotiated with the guy.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 9:46 AM EST up reply actions  

So does the bid disappear if he doesn't get signed

So if someone bids 40 mil for the rights, if they can’t get a deal done, do they lose the 40 mil. or get it back.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 9, 2011 9:33 AM EST reply actions  

They get it back.

Pretty good wikipedia page on the posting process.

by RoscoeNats on Dec 9, 2011 9:40 AM EST up reply actions  

News to me. I thought they got MOST of it back? Guess I was wrong.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:12 AM EST up reply actions  

Breaking News!!!!

NationalsPR:
Nationals Spring Training: Pitchers/Catchers (2/19), Position Players (2/23), 1st full workout (2/25).

by dc Roach on Dec 9, 2011 10:45 AM EST reply actions   1 recs

72 days until pitchers and catchers report ...

76 days until position players report.
78 days until the first full workout.
85 days until the first spring training game (3/3 vs. Houston, tentative)
118 days until Opening Day (4/5 @ Chicago … brrrrrr)
125 days until the Home Opener (4/12, 1:05pm, vs. Reds)

Sigh …

by d_c_guy on Dec 9, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

So I just want to float this out there, but I have a potential CF FA...

Who might be a decent, cheap option. One who’s familiar to many of us.

Endy Chavez.

He’s got a career .274/.313/.373 slash line, and in 83 games with the Rangers in 2011 (274PAs) he went .301/.323/.426 with 5 HR, 10 RBI, 10 SB in 15 attempts.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:57 AM EST reply actions  

Plus, it'd be good to have another original Nat back.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 10:59 AM EST up reply actions  

Inning-ending Chavez?

Remember, kids, clutch does not exist.

"If you ain't got the pants, you ain't got a chance." --PerryMason (on the sartorial component of being a Real Ballplayer)

by Doghouse on Dec 9, 2011 11:02 AM EST up reply actions  

The guy had 9 at bats as a National, 6 years ago.

Some folks sure know how to hold a grudge. :-)

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 9, 2011 11:05 AM EST up reply actions  

And a heck of a lot more as an Expo. A GOOD Expo. Well...decent, anyway.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:06 AM EST up reply actions  

I think the numbers speak for themselves.

Where’s my checkbook?

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 9, 2011 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

I mean, he should cost $2MM a year.

Give him a 1-year with an option.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:13 AM EST up reply actions  

Yes. It would be amusing. But if we have to go back to old-school Nats, better him than Willie Harris.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:07 AM EST up reply actions  

Worth a shot

I do wonder why he hasn’t caught on with anyone, but good glove as long as he’s not the only option. wOBA was decent, but I wonder how much not hitting in Texas will hurt.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 11:10 AM EST up reply actions  

From MLBTR
Mark Zuckerman of Nats Insider thinks the Nationals should look at Pujols leaving the Cardinals as incentive to re-sign Ryan Zimmerman to an extension. Zimmerman is under contract in Washington through 2013 and Zuckerman says the club’s desire to save money for a Zimmerman extension is a reason the Nats haven’t pushed for Fielder this offseason.

I highly approve of this line of thinking.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 11:23 AM EST reply actions  

As do I.

Zim+Morse>???+Fielder.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not that I don't like Fielder

But if from a money standpoint the question is Fielder or Zimmerman long term, I’ll take Zimmerman every day of the week.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 11:27 AM EST up reply actions  

It's not that I don't like Prince either.

It’s that ? that makes me worry. If I knew now who that ? was (Rendon?) and how good he will be…

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:34 AM EST up reply actions  

An idea for offense

So most of the offensive pieces on the market are starting to trim down I think the Nats should go after the one guy no one is talking about, Carlos Beltran. Beltran isn’t a CF anymore, but he can still rake, adds a lefty to the lineup and potentially gives you Fielder-level production without the big commitment. If they sign him, they move Morse back to 1B and LaRoche to the bench, which would strengthen the bench without having to invest in too heavily in Morse not having the sophomore slump (I know he’s not a rookie) and LaRoche coming back from injury. Plus Beltran can play CF in a pinch and can play either corner OF slot when they call Harper up all for a fraction of the cost and commitment of Fielder.

Of course he could get hurt, but for the cost I think it’s a worthwhile gamble.

Ross Detwiler will have a breakout year...Believe It!...and I'm serious this time!

by Pig.Pen on Dec 9, 2011 11:31 AM EST reply actions  

NPUT?

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Dec 9, 2011 11:35 AM EST reply actions  

Beltran, Hammer, and pitching

I agree with this. Which makes all the more sense to bring back Ankiel for defensive purposes in late innings. I also think for bench strength bring back the Hammer. Having Ankiel, Werth, Harper, Beltran, Willingham provides alot of flexibility. Leave laRoche and Lombardozzi for the infield, and figure if Norris/Flores/Pudge is your catcher.
From a pitching standpoint it may be crazy but to mix up the speed and type of pitcher you have Zimm, Lannan, Oswalt, Wang, Stras in that order, You get power finess, power sinker, power plus when (not if) in contention you get Stras for a longer period of time. Det, peacock, Millone are your spot starters and the best takes Stras when he hits 160 innings.

by habs1000 on Dec 9, 2011 12:10 PM EST reply actions  

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