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Washington Nationals: Important Dates, Post 2011 MLB Winter Meetings Notes.

The talk of B.J. Upton potentially being non-tendered was laughed off by Rays fans and it's not even mentioned as a possibility these days (Yahoo!Sports.com's team report says he's an obvious "Yes" to be tendered a contract before the December 12, 2011 deadline.) Talk of the 27-year-old outfielder, (who is arbitration eligible; due a raise to around $7-8M; and a free agent after the 2012 season), being traded came up once again during the just-concluded Winter Meetings, with the Washington Nationals reportedly revisiting talks with Tampa Bay. Early in the week, reports out of Dallas, Texas' Hilton Anatole from St. Petersburgh Times' Rays beat writer Marc Tompkin noted that the Rays were looking to add rather than subtract offense, so, he wrote "... it seems unlikely the Rays would deal [Upton] since they are seeking to improve their offense."

Star-divide

FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) put Upton on a list of potential targets for the Nationals this past week and his colleague at FOXSports.com, Jon Morosi (@JonMorosi), reported that Tampa Bay and Washington were talking about a trade again, but MLB.com's Bill Chastain too wrote in an article on Monday entitled, "Winter Meetings Kicking Off", that, "Based on what [Rays' GM] Andrew Friedman has said — the team is looking to add offense — I don’t expect the Rays to be actively shopping their center fielder."

"Rays telling teams they will talk about BJ upton but have to be overwhelmed to move him," ESPN.com's Buster Olney wrote on the Twitter (@Buster_ESPN).

"Trade interest in B.J. Upton has been mild so far. Just not a lot of teams with need for (and willingness to spend on) CF," FOXSports.com's Jon Morosi (@JonMorosi) wrote. When the Nats and Rays discussed a potential Upton deal this past July before the Non-Waiver deadline, ESPN.com's Keith Law reported that while the Nats were interested in Upton, "...there are indications [Washington] balked at dealing two pitchers the Rays are believed to have asked about: Ross Detwiler and the much-coveted Brad Peacock."

D.C. GM Mike Rizzo spoke to reporters about the discussions the Nats had with the Rays, but as Washington Times' writer Amanda Comak quoted the general manager stating earlier this week, "'I don’t think anything has changed on that front,'":

"'I don't like to talk about specifics, or hypotheticals but I don't think anything has changed on that front. We have a comfort level of the player and we know what value we would give up for him. What goes into that equation is of course control of a player, what the player makes and what player you're giving up to acquire them.'"

FOXSports.com's Jon Morosi (@JonMorosi) wrote earlier this week that soon-to-be-free agent Yoenis Cespedes, a 26-year-old Cuban outfielder who is establishing residency in the Dominican Republic is still a player of interest for the Nationals. D.C. GM Mike Rizzo told MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Bowden and Casey Stern that he'd only seen Cespedes in a workout, but, "Our scouts like [Cespedes]," the general manager said:

"They think he's a hit-and-power package that can play center field. He runs extremely well and he throws well. He has the chance to be a five-tool player, and a lot of the success and performance will be determined by how he adapts to the Americas and to the U.S. game and getting him ready for the major leagues is what it's all about. He may take a month or two in the minor leagues or a half-a-season in the minor leagues or he comes to Spring Training and turns it on and becomes a major league force right out of the gate."

The Washington Nationals were rumored to be one of seven or eight teams still interested in the outfielder as the Winter Meetings came to a close. Cespedes was still waiting to establish his residency in the Dominican Republic, a process which the outfielder's agent Adam Katz told MLB Network Radio hosts Jim Duquette and Kevin Kennedy could take a few days or possibly weeks to complete. "His Dominican residency is the first step," Mr. Katz said, "and then there's a formal petition to Major League Baseball and it shouldn't be a problem. And then at some point in the next -- could be five days, could be fifty-five days -- depending on red tape sort of stuff -- he should be unblocked and then we can begin the process."

• Speaking Of Timetables:

The posting process for 25-year-old Hokkaido Nippon Ham Fighters' right-hander Yu Darvish was laid out by FOXSports.com's Jon Morosi this afternoon:

@JonMorosi: "Darvish timeline: Bids due from MLB clubs by 5 pm ET on Wed, Dec. 14. Fighters must decide whether to accept by 5 pm ET on Tues, Dec. 20."

@JonMorosi: "If and when Fighters decide to accept bid, MLB club has 30 days from that point to sign Darvish."

So...This could go on to mid-January...

• Light, End, Tunnel:

It's hard to think ahead this far on December 10th, but the Nationals officially announced three important dates this morning via the team's official Twitter account @NationalsPR: "Nationals Spring Training: Pitchers/Catchers (2/19), Position Players (2/23), 1st full workout (2/25)." The Nationals' first exhibition game of 2012 is scheduled for Saturday March 3, 2012. The final exhibition game is to be played in Nationals Park on Tuesday, April 3rd, then the season opener in Chicago is April 5th at 2:20 pm EST.

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SIGN YU DARVISH!

Pretty please…with sugar on it. Please Santa Rizza, mmmktnx, bai.

"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011

by MissB on Dec 10, 2011 9:23 AM EST via mobile reply actions  

Upton

I still do not see how Upton solves our problems. He adds to the strike out problem. Certainly trading Peacock, a guy who could be a breakout player this year, would be very foolish for the Nats.

by JamesFan on Dec 10, 2011 10:16 AM EST reply actions  

They wouldn't want Peacock

Starting pitching is what the Rays are trying to get rid of. And Upton is legit. He may not be a leadoff man so trading for him would mean putting faith in Desmond. But he’s still one of the best center fielders around. To put this in perspective, Adam Jones is mentioned frequently as a trade target (I guess because we see him more often) but Upton is better than him in just about every category. Upton has Jones beat in WAR by 9 wins. Upton’s career OBP is .23 points higher which is suprising since he hits for a low average. Upton’s career wRC+ is 118 while Jones’ is 98 (below league average). And in the field, Upton’s got a career UZR/150 of 5.2 while Jones is in negative territory. If the Nats think they can lock him up, then I’d be willing to give up Norris + low level prospect. Even with the K’s, Upton is a model of consistency and eventually an outfield of Harper, Upton, Werth with Morse at first looks fine by me.

Whats the frequency, Kenneth?

by ZimforPrez on Dec 10, 2011 3:45 PM EST up reply actions  

I guess from the sideswipe there...

that you DON’T place any faith in Desmond?

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 10, 2011 4:15 PM EST up reply actions  

I do actually

But if we were to make a pro’s and con’s list for Upton, the first con would be “not the leadoff man we want.” I wouldn’t mind giving Desmond another shot for a little while

Whats the frequency, Kenneth?

by ZimforPrez on Dec 10, 2011 9:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Cespedes over Upton

While both are risks, Cespedes only costs money. Neither are leadoff options and if you trade for Upton you’ve got to extend him too, which makes him just as, if not more, expensive than Cespedes. Plus you’ve got to create a few holes to get Upton.

I’d rather use our top trade chips to get a starting pitcher and money to get the CF.

We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court

by rfk428 on Dec 10, 2011 11:18 AM EST reply actions  

You are ignoring the level of risk involved.

You are correct in that neither player is a lead-off option and both will cost a significant sum of money. What you are ignoring is that BJ Upton has averaged 4 WAR a season for the last 5 seasons, and has never been significantly injured. Cespedes can roast a pig, and played in a league where Maya was a dominant pitcher. We don’t even know if he can actually play CF, much less what his hitting will be like at the MLB level. In short, one is as close to a sure thing as you can get in major league baseball, where as the other is one of the most risky.

For the record, I am not saying that we should not sign Cespedes. He appears to be a very athletic, and in great shape. However, baseball is generally a game of skills, rather than raw athletic talent. If the scouts are believe that Cespedes has the skills to play MLB, then great sign him and be don’t with it. If however, they see great potential, then I would say move on because he will cost too much for a prospect. Perhaps bid low for him.

In counter-point to your argument, I would raise Norichika Aoki. He too would cost only money, probably less of it, and has the skill set we are looking for ie the lead-off hitter. He’s coming off a down year in Japan positing- 292/.358/.360, but offense was down all over the Japanese League, because they moved to a more MLB style ball. Still a .358 OBP would be a great-leadoff, and that was during a down year in which an earthquake devastated his home region within Japan. The Yakult Swallows are motivated sellers in the deal, because he is a free agent next year, and has previously asked to be posted. As an added bonus, he is represented by CAA, the same firm as Ryan Zimmerman.

by chubias on Dec 10, 2011 1:44 PM EST up reply actions  

Wow. A .360 SLG?

Pass.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Dec 10, 2011 3:34 PM EST up reply actions  

Don't worry Rob, he doesn't play 1st.

And as a potentially low cost pick-up, he improves the chances of the club being able to afford Fielder and the rest of the team.

If it makes you feel better, he slugged .435 in 2010.

by chubias on Dec 10, 2011 3:52 PM EST up reply actions  

I'm with you STILL on the sign Fielder front,

BUT,

if the FO is sticking with the idea of getting a CF and letting LaRoche go at some point to move Morse to 1st then the “pool” of talent that is out there is very small.

Getting a CF pretty much means that Harper starts in AA or AAA which gives him more time to work on his D, which could be a plus. The only CF options I think are worth it out there are the following, listed with pros and cons -

B.J. Upton – Defensively he is great, and swings for good power. He is a righty and do we really need ANOTHER right handed power bat in a lineup with no left handed power? He also doesn’t lead off so we are stuck with either Desmond or Lombardozzi (probably Desmond) at no. 1

Denard Span – Offensively he is a lefty leadoff type with some pop, which fits great in our lineup. His defense isn’t as good as Upton and hasn’t posted the type of WAR that Upton has. Also Minnesota states that they are no longer shopping him and they are probably over valuing him so the trade potential there doesn’t seem to match. Two teams who overvalue their players don’t make good partners.

Yoenis Cespedes – Totally unproven as far as MLB pitching is concerned. Looks to have a decent arm, but takes bad routes on balls. Has speed and power, but probably tends to be more like Cameron Maybin and that doesn’t impress all that much. Wants big money and age is an issue. Who from Cuba has ever actually been the age that they stated?

Norichika Aoki – Leadoff hitter, lefty, and has strong defense but an average arm. He seems to be less of a risk then Cespedes, and makes a good case that he may have the best upside. He is considered one of the most complete players in the NPB and is said to be the best hitter this side of Ichiro.

If we don’t go for Fielder, I’d take a bet on Aoki more than anyone else. There looks to be less concern over backwards Cuban Cespedes, and he can lead off which puts him ahead of Upton and could potentially put up Upton style WAR numbers. He is a gamble, but if Span isn’t available and we can’t swing a deal for him, I’d put my money on Aoki, who has asked to be posted.

Name a number between three and five.
.............
.............
Threeve.

by Mattionals on Dec 10, 2011 4:21 PM EST up reply actions  

International numbers are not the same as MLB.

Take Kosuke Fukudome, free agent former Japanese center fielder with 4 year in the MLB.
One year in Japan he had a BA .343 .OBP 438 .SLG .653
The year before he posted .294 .443 .520
Career MLB BA .260 OBP .361 .SLG 399

He is available, no posting fee required.

by HG_VA on Dec 10, 2011 4:55 PM EST up reply actions  

True

Thanks for adding that. While he did play 12 game at CF last year. I would not play him at CF. He is only an option for the Nats, if they do not get a CF and decide move Jayson Werth to CF and decide to add another OF.

I was trying to point out the drop off in the MLB from the NPB.

by HG_VA on Dec 10, 2011 5:29 PM EST up reply actions  

not sure what's wrong with a .361 obp

Michael Bourn’s career obp is.336. Desmond’s is what, .304?

Fukodome hasn’t been a great player and can’t handle CF. I have no idea what Aoki’s D is like -but if he can play a solidCF and he projects out to the same type of hitter as Fukodome, then he seems to fit the bill better than any of the other options I’ve heard.

by dc rl on Dec 10, 2011 5:36 PM EST up reply actions  

Aoki has won six straight gold gloves as a CF in Japan

According to this release by the Tokyo Swallows. I have no idea whether Japanese awards are more reliable than the U.S. Gold Glove voting. By most accounts his arm is marginal, but accurate. He’s led the Japanese league in putouts a few times.

by d_c_guy on Dec 10, 2011 5:53 PM EST up reply actions  

Ratios

If you ratio Kosuke Fukudome last year vs MLB stats and use Norichika Aoki
BA/ OBP
.317/ .354 from Norichika Aoki 2010
.258/.292 from Norichika Aoki 2011

I got Norichika Aoki 2010 number from wikipedia and the 2011 from comments in this article.

by HG_VA on Dec 10, 2011 6:26 PM EST up reply actions  

I'll take the 2010 Aoki, please

Thanks.

More seriously, last year was a career low for Aoki, and arguably played under conditions (standardized MLB equivalent baseball, etc) that Fukudome did not. Whatever the cause, offense was down across Nippon baseball last year. If you want to do a “true” conversion using Fukudome, Aoki’s career splits prior to 2011: .339/.421/.497.

by d_c_guy on Dec 10, 2011 7:28 PM EST up reply actions  

I understand that totally

But I’m sold more on his stuff than Cespedes, and Aoki comes cheaper. I’d rather not move Werth to CF unless it is to put Harper in right, and only to put Harper in right. That situation to me would only be if Morse STAYS in the OF and Fielder is signed.

Name a number between three and five.
.............
.............
Threeve.

by Mattionals on Dec 10, 2011 11:28 PM EST up reply actions  

Another benefit to Aoki

He will likely accept a shorter contract. Assuming we do a 3 year deal, that should give us plenty of time to see if any of the current crop of “toolsy CF” prospects such as Eury Perez, Destin Hood, and Brian Goodwin are real MLB players.

by chubias on Dec 11, 2011 3:42 AM EST up reply actions  

You guys bring up a good point

a 4.0 War player is a major upgrade. The Nats had exactly zero players with 4.0 War or better. and just a quick check, Zimmerman is the only player with 4.0 or better in the last several years.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Dec 10, 2011 3:46 PM EST reply actions  

I view Norris as a long-term asset; I'd be happy to trade him for another long-term asset, but not for a one year rental

Which is why I don’t see a matchup with the Rays for Upton so much. I like Upton, but just one year of Upton isn’t that valuable an asset.

Cespedes is intriguing, but $50 million intriguing? Not to me. Corey Brown destroyed AA ball and so (with MPHRod) was worth a year of Josh Willingham. Cespedes destroys Cuban pitching (as a 26yo) and he’s worth $50 million? Talk about a roll of the dice. In many ways I’d be happier with Aoki. He’s more of a high OBP (more walks than strikeouts) good defense (four gold gloves in Japan, even with a marginal arm) with decent power. As a left handed batting CF leadoff candidate he seems to fit several needs. He’s supposed to be posted on Monday.

by d_c_guy on Dec 10, 2011 4:51 PM EST reply actions  

Has anyone heard how much Aoki is likely to cost?

If he can get on base at a decent clip and play good defense he may be just what we’re looking for. I’d rather make a push for him than Darvish. I’d read somewhere that he didn’t walk much, which made me think he was a younger version of Juan Pierre. If that were the case, we’d be just as well signing Pierre for a lot less. Do we want someone who will be pushed to the bench when Harper is ready, or someone who will make LaRoche expendable and push Morse to first? I lean toward the latter.

by mstomper on Dec 10, 2011 8:59 PM EST reply actions  

Sports illustrated Projection Norichika Aoki

" 21. Norichika Aoki. Three-time batting champ is supposed to be the best pure hitter to come from Japan since Ichiro. Projection: $10 million posting. $15 million, three years. " from Projections for the top 65 free-agents in
sports illustrated

by HG_VA on Dec 10, 2011 9:39 PM EST up reply actions  

Going into 2011 (Baseball Reference hasn't updated their 2011 Nippon Baseball Stats) he had a walk rate of 8.2%

His stat line is here. He has marginal power (64 HR in 4 seasons), but given that he’s 5’9" and 170 pounds I’m really surprised that he has any power at all.

by d_c_guy on Dec 11, 2011 12:10 AM EST up reply actions  

Also, younger is important for speedy players.

Carlos Beltran was a plus defender in center field five years ago, but I don’t think anyone wants to watch him play there now.

Juan Pierre hasn’t played CF in two years.

by chubias on Dec 11, 2011 3:49 AM EST up reply actions  

Free agent CF

Kosuke Fukudome, Coco Crisp, Rick Ankiel, Cody Ross, Reed Johnson, Endy Chavez, Corey Patterson, Scott Hairston, Willie Harris, Dewayne Wise, Mike Cameron, and Jason Michaels

MLB Trade Rumors FA tracker

List by 2011 bWAR. Fukudome maybe to old to play CF. Not a lot here. Coco Crisp, Rick Ankiel, and Cody Ross maybe ok.

by HG_VA on Dec 11, 2011 10:55 AM EST up reply actions  

May be worth it.

Plenty of players have torn up AAA and tanked in the majors. Anyone without a major league track record is a crap shoot. If you sign Ichiro, you’re a genius; if you sign Irabu, you’re an idiot.

by mstomper on Dec 10, 2011 9:43 PM EST reply actions  

At least a crap shoot can go either way

It’s better than picking out of a pool of crap. When Kosuke Fukudome (not even really a centerfielder) highlights a group of centerfielders, I think I’d rather go with the slightly more expensive toss up in Aoki.

Whats the frequency, Kenneth?

by ZimforPrez on Dec 11, 2011 1:43 PM EST up reply actions  

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