Nationals Daily Evolutions 2/14/11

Nyjer played out of his mind for six weeks. Livo’s numbers are for six months – he started strong, wobbled in June, then recovered and pitched effectively well into September. While Livo’s numbers were different from his performance the previous couple of seasons they were hardly unprecedented for him. Long term trends for a pitcher at Livo’s age (whatever that happens to be) aren’t good, so he should drop off. While I don’t discount good fortune as part of Livo’s success last year, I also don’t completely discount improved health and fitness. We’ll see.

Many of the same people who argue against Livo also argue against Lannan being a part of the rotation. Partially because watching him pitch can be excruciating. When Lannan struggled early last year, there was a distinct element of “AHA! We told you he wasn’t very good” that ran through the posts. And yet Lannan came back and pitched effectively at the end of the season, with his K/9 rate up above career norms and his BB/9 rate down. And yet he is still reviled by many sabermetric fans. My question to them is this – which is more “representative” of Lannan’s career? The 2 1/2 seasons (2008, 2009, second half of 2010) when he was an effective MOR starter, or the first half of 2010? If a pitcher consistently outperforms his xFIP over a career, is that an indication of an extremely fortunate pitcher … or a limitation or blind spot in the statistical formula?

He got his job last year the old-fashioned way: he earned it. OK, Houseman reference aside, he continued to pitch well while those around him (Marquis, Lannan) collapsed. And Livo only made the team because he showed up healthier and got people out. Managers tend to like pitchers that get people out.

I agree that Mock and Maya could have better springs than Livo and not get a rotation spot. Again, that’s because spring training only tells you so much. Now, if they pitch MUCH better than Livo then they would go ahead of him. But the team has flexibility with Mock and Maya because they have options. If they only pitch slightly better than Livo, then they go to Syracuse and start every 5th day as a “starter in waiting” – if a pitcher in the DC rotation falters, then they move up, quite possibly quickly. Other pitchers (Livo, Gorzelanny, etc) would have to be exposed to waivers to send them down. The organization isn’t foolish if it wants to keep the overall talent level in the organization higher by stashing those it can stash and giving those it can’t a slight preference in terms of roster spots.

Who have a (much) better farm system and fewer team needs with the glaring exception of starting pitching. It will be interesting to see whether the Twins get an offer they like, given that Liriano has never pitched 200 innings in a season and has had one very good season (2010) since coming back from TJ surgery – his previous two seasons were really crappy. Liriano also has developed a slight reputation for spitting the bit in important games – the Yankees roughed him up twice in the postseason.

That said, if the Nats could get him for Norris, Storen and one of their better pitching prospects (Solis?), I’d pull the trigger.