CF Options in D.C.

by dc Roach on Mar 15, 2011 11:01 PM EDT

I'll admit right off the bat, things are not pretty in center field right now.

Nationals fans are disappointed with Nyjer Morgan's performance last year, and his dismal start this spring has everyone worried that there is going to be a black hole in D.C.'s outfield for the 2011 season.

Competing for the CF job are Roger "The Shark" Bernadina and Rick Ankiel, both of whom have limited experience at the position. Tonight I am going to take a look at both the offensive and defensive experience of these three players to give ourselves a foundation on which fans can build objective arguments as to why one or the other of the three should be given the starting job come April. Think of it as a "Choose Your Own Center Fielder Adventure" story.

Everybody is talking about offense, so let us begin there:

Timespan	Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	OPS+
2010	Nyjer	.253	.319	.314	.633	73
	Shark	.246	.307	.384	.691	86
	Ankiel	.210	.324	.328	.651	78

09 - 10	Nyjer	.279	.343	.350	.693	87
	Shark	.246	.307	.384	.691	86
	Ankiel	.226	.295	.373	.667	78

Career	Nyjer	.283	.344	.360	.704	90
	Shark	.241	.306	.364	.670	80
	Ankiel	.247	.312	.439	.751	96

Take your pick of stats for career (Ankiel), 2 year average (Nyjer) or 2010 (Shark).

On to defense:

These stats are all for CF only, career and then 2010 only:

Player	Innings	UZR/150	2010 Inn	2010 UZR/150
Nyjer	1906	18.0	1124	4.2
Shark	293	-14.0	178	-13.6
Ankiel	1896	-8.7	534	-1.5

Just to round out the picture a little better, Nyjer's 2010 Held% (runners held on single, double, fly out*) was 46.1% compared to Ankiel at 40.4% and Bernadina at 51.3%.

Can we just give this one to Nyjer by a mile already? If Nyjer's above average defense in 2010 was dismal from your perspective, consider the following. In 2010, Nyjer had the 8th best (out of 19) UZR/150 among center fielders with min 900 innings played in the majors. In 2009 and 2010 combined, he was tied for 2nd in the majors. Take a three year average and he drops down to 4th place. Nyjer Morgan is the kind of guy you want patrolling center field.

It's up to you how much that defense is worth to you, though.

Lastly, let us look at the 2011 Spring Training stats (through Wednesday, March 23):

Player	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nyjer	.234	.333	.319	.652
Shark	.267	.340	.378	.718
Ankiel	.200	.250	.467	.717

Remember that ultimately OBP is worth more than SLG, so I wish I had a better stat than OPS handy, but I don't. Bernadina is the clear leader here, with Nyjer close behind in OBP and Ankiel there for those who love power.

Time to put the pieces together:

Everyone should now have the basic tools to put together a solid argument for their own favorite candidate. Basically, the Nats will have to make do with below average offensive production from the position, but how much below is up for debate. Camp Nyjer will point to his glove and his decent OBP in recent years. Camp Ankiel will point to his veteran experience and power. Camp Shark will point to his almost exciting spring performance.

I hesitate to give my own opinion on the matter, but if I guess I can at least say this much: With just a few weeks left before the regular season starts, the battle for center field features Morgan with a Shark nipping closely at his Ankiels.

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"CF Options in D.C."

- Nyjer Morgan

Period

Screech's Godson
UMD Class of 2014! GO TERPS!!!

by grizzy on Mar 16, 2011 12:13 AM EDT reply actions

Evidence, man, evidence.

Consolations for your Terps. Hope Gary uses this as fuel for next year. I think you need to step up your campaign for Nyjer. I’m not gonna like. The Sharkadina guys have swayed me towards rooting for Bernadina because I’d like to see them have daily fuel for their fanpage.

All of these guys feel like 4th outfielders. I think the organization knows that now. I think that choosing one fourth outfielder over another is not something to get but so much angst about at this point. There all not so good and one not so good is not but so much better than the other.

Personally, I’m rooting for moving one of our starters, preferably Marquis, for somebody that can provide a better option.

Also, what about a Morgan/Hairston platoon?

Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris. Friend of Nationalsprospects.com

by souldrummer on Mar 16, 2011 12:35 AM EDT up reply actions

Hairston

I had forgotten for a moment that Hairston will get playing time out there in all likelihood. I’ll look into adding him into the mix. He’s definitely a plus defender out there if I remember rightly, though his offense is if anything no stronger than Nyjer’s. I’ll try to dig up some splits later and see if they would be helpful to the debate.

by dc Roach on Mar 16, 2011 7:37 AM EDT up reply actions

All the memorable blunders by Nyjer make him appear so horrible.

Can’t we change him into 20 year old Andruw Jones?

by RoscoeNats on Mar 16, 2011 8:46 AM EDT up reply actions

All of these guys feel like 4th outfielders.

Thats how i see them too. Although i think there is a bit of angst of one over the other as its probably the last big gap on the outfield side that the Nats havent filled. If Morgan played to form we wouldnt be discussing it – but sadly im not sure hes the answer. With that in mind i wonder whether a platoon of Shark/Morgan might do ok – but runs empty given they’re leftie hitters.

Im certainly with you that I think the Nats have to move someone to get CF. Although not sure who – if Beltran came back from injuries ok I think the Nats should have made a deal in terms of salary relief. He’s in his walk year and has little in the way that could make us worse in that position (noting I think he’s lost probably the pace to play there fulltime).

Ian Desmond is my hero!

by Mezza on Mar 16, 2011 8:13 PM EDT up reply actions

Harper

We can wait ’till next year.

Rob

-- Don't say "meh". The brain cells that you save could be your own!

by RobBobS on Mar 17, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions

do you think he'll play CF?

Or will they move Werth to CF? I kinda figured they would let Harper play RF in his first year to get comfy, Werth to LF but it still leaves CF a problem. Moving Werth might be more viable given his experience and has played the position before. And we’ve got LF’ers that grow on trees at the moment.

Ian Desmond is my hero!

by Mezza on Mar 17, 2011 6:11 PM EDT up reply actions

Honestly don't have any idea

But Harper does seem like the type that can handle CF, which is by far the most important position in the outfield, without hurting his offensive potential.

Rob

-- Don't say "meh". The brain cells that you save could be your own!

by RobBobS on Mar 18, 2011 1:58 AM EDT up reply actions

the battle for center field features Morgan with a Shark nipping closely at his Ankiels.

Something makes me think that the entire point of this post was just so you could put that in print.

Rob

-- Don't say "meh". The brain cells that you save could be your own!

by RobBobS on Mar 16, 2011 11:42 AM EDT reply actions

you better believe it :)

by dc Roach on Mar 16, 2011 1:27 PM EDT up reply actions

Harper in center?

Like to see that this year. Why postpone the inevitable?

by jbfastpitch on Mar 21, 2011 6:56 PM EDT reply actions

this is a great piece well done

I agree 100%. Nyjer is a terrible leadoff hitter, but if he batted 8th, then he would be a darn good CF.

"What you know is often the enemy of what you can learn" Bill James

by PhDBrian on Mar 24, 2011 4:15 AM EDT reply actions

And now it's looking like Ankiel....

…the next question is what do they do with Nyjer?

Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris. Friend of Nationalsprospects.com

by souldrummer on Mar 24, 2011 10:56 AM EDT reply actions

From what I read was that Nyjer was being shopped – or possibly released. Although the latter im not sure is all that necessary if he has options. It only takes an injury and we’re in a different scenario.

Ian Desmond is my hero!

by Mezza on Mar 24, 2011 6:31 PM EDT up reply actions

Spring Training stats updated through yesterday

Nyjer is looking better, Ankiel not really.

by dc Roach on Mar 24, 2011 12:55 PM EDT reply actions

They like that power I guess

I think they are just frustrated with Nyjer’s lack of progress. I believe he’s still had baserunning issues. As for Shark, I think that when it comes down to it they just don’t like his defense. I hope that whoever they pick ends up platooning with Hairston. Ankiel and Morgan are abysmal against lefties.

Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris. Friend of Nationalsprospects.com

by souldrummer on Mar 24, 2011 1:37 PM EDT up reply actions