Three Up, Three Down: The First Week
After Sunday afternoon's 7-3, 11-inning win over the New York Mets, the Nationals have played nine games in the 2011 season, and won four of them, good enough to edge a half-game ahead of the Braves in the race for last place as they return to the capital for a homestand against the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers.
It's difficult to write a column like this at this point in the season without some massive overreaction and projection. Nevertheless, each week throughout the season, I'll be giving you my choice for the three star men (or units) on the Nationals and the three that need to improve the most. I call it "Three Up, Three Down," and it begins after the jump.
Three Up1. Jordan Zimmermann--The man who the Nationals believe and hope will be the Johnny Sain to Stephen Strasburg's Warren Spahn has been the Nationals' best starting pitcher so far this season. He was left out to dry by his defense in his first start last Sunday against the Atlanta Braves and still managed to go six innings and allow just two earned runs on four hits. He put up similar numbers Friday afternoon against the Mets, allowing two runs on six hits and even helping his own cause with a single in the second inning. The only concern I have for Zimmermann at this point is his lack of strikeouts and ground balls. According to FanGraphs, Zimmermann's ground ball percentage so far this year has been an underwhelming 28.9% and his K/9 ratio is a mere 4.76. If Zimmermann doesn't rediscover that strikeout pitch that helped him to a 9.07 K/9 ratio in 2009, he'll get into trouble against better line-ups.
2. Danny Espinosa--Let's be honest, most of us expected Ryan Zimmerman to come out of the blocks flying this season (which is why this latest injury is so concerning). But Espinosa has been a real revelation for the Nats so far this season. Forget the massive home run he hit at Citi Field Saturday night and focus on his newfound patience at the plate. Consider: In 112 plate appearances last season, Espinosa managed just nine walks. He already has five free passes in 32 plate appearances this season. That's been the biggest contributor to his .406 on-base percentage and the main reason that I feel the second -year man's earned a look at the leadoff spot in the line-up ahead of Ian Desmond (1 walk in 39 plate appearances and a .256 on-base percentage, for the record).
3. The law office of Burnett, Clippard, and Slaten-- They've made a total of 17 appearances so far this season, pitched a combined 15.2 shutout innings and allowed just 13 of the 57 batters they've faced to reach base. Of course, five of those batters were Slaten's responsibility, which is why he's a junior partner at this point. But still, that's a pretty darn impressive start from a bullpen that has a lot of live up to this season.
Three Down
1. Adam LaRoche-- I appreciate that he's not going to be a one-for-one replacement for Adam Dunn, as LaRoche himself has said from the moment he was introduced to the D.C. media. I appreciate that he's got a nagging injury, and I appreciate that he was brought here in large part for defense. Well, it's too early in the season to get a good handle on his defense, but I know darn well that a.306 on-base percentage and .290 slugging percentage in 36 plate appearances is not what you want out of your cleanup hitter. If it weren't for Desmond's sputtering start with the bat, and the struggles of the the next man on this list, it would be safe to say that LaRoche would be the member of the Nats batting order most under the cosh. But no. Step forward ...
2. Michael Morse-- It was reasonable to assume that Morse would struggle to match his output from last season when you consider that he got rather lucky on balls in play (His 2010 BABIP: .330). There's also not much reason to assume that his current dry spell at the plate will continue (His 2011 BABIP: .211). But, just seven appearances on base in 32 plate appearances does not behoove Morse to be in the five-hole at this point in the season.
3. Members of the bullpen not named Burnett, Clippard, or Slaten-- Specifically, Drew Storen, Todd Coffey, Chad Gaudin, and Brian Boderick, who have pitched a combined 17.2 innings and given up 19 hits, 12 walks, and 16 runs, 14 of them earned. Further comment, I think, is needless.
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Storen's coming around, his ERA is down to 1.35 [he's on my fantasy team]
we knew Adam LaRoche was a slow starter with the bat,
but I love his glove work. Hope he can play vs Phillies.
Mikey Mo needs to relax at the plate. I know, easier said than done.
J-Zim is still in process of returning from TJ, he should get better as he goes along. This will be something to keep an eye on.
Spinner is the real goods.
This team is a lot more fun to watch than last year’s. That team never quit, but it lacked the back up parts to succeed. This team has them, so I remain optimistic about this season.
I like your thinking, Sam, good points.
I move that Storen be elevated to the Law Offices
And Slaten’s name be removed from the masthead. Storen has a WHIP of .706, and other than a slight wobble in his first appearance has been overpowering. Slaten’s WHIP is 2.50 (!) and while his ERA is still 0.00, he has allowed 40% of inherited runners to score. On Saturday evening as I drove home I listened to the Mets announcers babbling about Slaten’s wonderful ERA. “Sure, but he let’s everyone else’s runners score” was my response. Sure enough, two of the three runners on base when he came in scored, and the one who didn’t only failed to score because he ran into Ian Desmond. Slaten’s two runners? Stranded by someone else. Which is the story of Slaten’s season so far – usually with Tyler Clippard doing the cleanup work.
by d_c_guy on Apr 11, 2011 1:18 PM EDT reply actions 1 recs
I second the motion
Storen looks much better to me already this year. He was hitting 97 with movement this weekend and is pitching with more huevos than he’s shown in the past.
Time to bring up some combination of Rodriguez, Balestar and Kimball and put Broderick, Gaudin, and Coffey out to pasture. HRod probably needs another week or so to make up for time missed in spring training, but MLB is not the place for ‘inventory’. I bought into the options game, but ultimately, it’s just delayed the inevitable.
I say bring up BallyStar for Guadin and HRod for Broderick. I’d give Coffey a little more rope and a few more innings in AAA wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world for Kimball.
We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo
I don't see any moves being made until room needs to be made for HRod
The fact is both Gaudin and Broderick are with us because they showed real promise in spring training, and if either can settle down a little it would add real value to the team. Personally, I don’t think Gaudin has a chance of sticking, but his last outing or two were not very horrible.
Keep Broderick
I think that it is way too early to give up on Broderick. Give the guy a chance to develop. After all he never pitched above AA until he came to the Nats. It’s a huge jump and his second outing was vastly better than the first.
Positive trend
1st outing – 4 ER
2nd outing – 2 ER
Using statistics, I predict he will be brilliant his next time out.
By the 4th outing, he'll be taking away two runs from the opposing team!
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Storen does not belong in the doghouse.
And I outta know. (ba-DUMP!). And Slaten’s only faced, what, 11 batters so far this season? Yeah, I know, it’s all we have to go on. Morse is the one on that list I’m most concerned about—he’s never proven himself in a full season. LaRoche is more of a known quantity, injury notwithstanding.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
There was some discussion on Twitter this morning on Zim(n)'s K-rate drop...
From the interviews I’ve heard with Zimmermann and Rizzo they think he’s back to having the feel for his pitches and his accuracy back, the last things to come back after TJS (so I’m told) and Zimmermann even used the word “pinpoint” to describe his accuracy. Wonder if the K’s will keep coming as he gets stronger…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 11, 2011 1:50 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
K-rate stabilizes pretty fast for a pitching stat (as we'll see later today)...
…it will be interesting to see how and whether it changes over the course of the season, as K% becomes significant in about a quarter of a season.
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
I'm not sure what precisely you mean by "becomes significant"...?
Rob
-- Thank you for using real words!
I mean the split-half correlation between even and odd BF gives an R^2 of 0.5
"And everybody lived happily ever after. Except the Phillies and the Mets. The End." --Sasskuash
Friend of Dukes and Desmond #3
Who Cares About Strikeouts?
If he keeps developing after the way he’s been pitching, I could care less about strikeouts. He looks terrific and in control.
Oh, and this is Samuel Chamberlain everyone. Say hi.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Apr 11, 2011 1:51 PM EDT via mobile reply actions
Hi.
Good stuff, though when I read the part about Law Offices, I thought for sure you must have misspelled “Storen”. He’s been very good, so far, and with a bit of luck (i.e. defense) he’d have the best numbers on the staff.
It’s early, but there are some good signs. Will it continue?
Rob
-- Thank you for using real words!
Hello Samuel, Bernie here, nice to meet you. Thanks for the easy read and info....BTW ...
STOREN ! STOREN ! really STOREN ! He’s on the up not down. Great to meet you, how’s your folks…awesome take it easy now and take care….STOREN NOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Greetings to the new guy!
I do like the idea of a weekly “3 up, 3 down” feature :-)
Hi guys.
Patrick, thanks for the introductions, and thanks for the welcome, everyone. I hear your pleas about Storen and I probably should have made him partner this week. That was a bad job by me, got excited about the ERA and didn’t look closely enough at the game logs.
Regarding Zimmermann: I’m less concerned about the K-rate than I am with the relatively low number of ground balls he’s gotten (only two ground ball outs on Friday against the Mets, though he did manage six against Atlanta on the previous Sunday). He got away with it because the Mets have a largely terrible lineup, but he might not be so lucky on other occasions. Worth watching, I think.
by Samuel Chamberlain on Apr 11, 2011 2:57 PM EDT reply actions
Welcome - you've got a great resume according to your Wikipedia page
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samuel_Chamberlain
Chief of staff to a brigadier general, warden of both the Massachusetts and Connecticut state prisons and certainly not least a noted painter!
All kidding aside, since you are new to FB, what’s your connection to the Nats? Looking forward to more columns.
"I'm going to run. You can't stop me. I'm going to run even if I don't get a single vote!." Willie Stark, All The King's Men
by kingfishfarms on Apr 11, 2011 3:10 PM EDT up reply actions
It's the combo of the two
You can live with a low GB rate with a high SO rate, or a low SO rate with a high GB rate; it’s the combination of a low GB rate and low SO rate that’s playing with fire. I think the SOs are more likely; the next couple of starts (as several have said) will be key.
Welcome, and thanks for the work!
Boom
Here’s the introduction. Hope you’ll let us know if DC United has anybody who supports the Curly W. Haven’t made it out to RFK yet for any non-Nats event yet.
Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
"Derek Norris walks." - Gameday. 'Nuff said. Souldrummer is all in for Derek Norris.
@washingnats:
I just learned that #Nats 3B Ryan Zimmerman will be placed on the 15-day disabled list. An announcement will be officially made Tuesday.
The move will be retroactive to Sunday, meaning Zimmerman will be eligible to return April 25. - Zuckerman
He’ll miss Phillies, Brewers, Cards & Pirates.
He’ll be back on the 26th when the Mets come to town.
Which is, conveniently, the next game that I have tickets for
Lucky for me, tough break for the Nats. Who gets the callup? Bixler?
DANG IT.
Freaking head first slides. He was in pain before he even hit the ground. Double Dang it. Missed most of spring training…now this.
dang it, he's on my fantasy team, too
I hope this rest gets him well

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