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Projecting the Nats after 6.5 Miles


Halfway through tonight's game against the Pirates, the Nationals will have played one quarter of their 2011 season.  Here are some projections of player performances over the full season based purely on past performance with no regard for statistical anomalies like .BABIP, xFIP or playing time.

Star-divide

Batting:

Jayson Werth will lead the team with 24 HR.

Jayson Werth will lead the team with 132 hits.

Jayson Werth will lead the team with 32 doubles.

Danny Espinosa will lead the team with 12 triples.

Jayson Werth will lead the team with 88 runs scored.

Danny Espinosa will lead the team with 80 RBIs.

Adam LaRoche will walk 92 times.

Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond will strike out 156 times each.

Danny Espinosa will get hit by 28 pitches.

Ian Desmond will steal 52 bases.

Pudge Rodriguez will ground into 16 double plays, but so will Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos.

As a team, the Nationals will hit 120 HR.
As a team, the Nationals will score 612 runs.
As a team, the Nationals will win 76 games - up 7 from last year.

Pitching:

Livan Hernandez will pitch 228 innings.

Jason Marquis will win 20 games.

Jordan Zimmermann and Tom Gorzelanny will each rack up 140 strike outs.

John Lannan and Livo will each walk 72 batters.

Drew Storen will finish with 32 saves.

Tyler Clippard will end up with 36 holds.

Drew Storen will allow only 4 earned runs to score (in 89 IP).

As a team, the Nats will surrender 120 HRs.
As a team, the Nats will allow 664 runs to score.

Defense:

Ian Desmond will commit 32 errors.

Adam LaRoche will commit 0 errors.

Pudge Rodriguez will throw out 24 runners while allowing 28 stolen bases.

Wilson Ramos will throw out 20 runners while allowing 28 stolen bases.

Adam LaRoche will be part of 120 double plays.

As a team, the Nats will commite 96 errors - down 31 from last year.

MVP:

Most valuable offensive player of the year - Wilson Ramos, with 3.2 fWAR & 2.8 bWAR.

Most valuable starting pitcher of the year - Jordan Zimmerman, with 5.2 fWAR.

Most valuable relieving pitcher of the year - Drew Storen, with 5.2 bWAR.

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This is just nuts

I hope nobody here takes any of these numbers as actual projections for anything.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on May 16, 2011 9:19 AM EDT reply actions  

(nothing personal, I just have a thing about funky-math).

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on May 16, 2011 9:19 AM EDT up reply actions  

I second Rob's warning.

These are not “serious” projections, though they are each quite possible.

Marquis for 20 wins!

by dc Roach on May 16, 2011 9:35 AM EDT up reply actions  

The Livo Hate is strong in you, my friend.

Souldrummer twitters at @souldrummer25
Derek Norris after called strike 3: "I have been hoodwinked, bamboozled, and RUN AMUCK!"

by souldrummer on May 16, 2011 10:54 AM EDT up reply actions  

Multiply by 4?

Name a number between three and five.
.............
.............
Threeve.

by Mattionals on May 16, 2011 1:26 PM EDT reply actions  

Maybe just simplify the title from “projecting” to “First Quarter Numbers Multiplied by Four”

by RoscoeNats on May 16, 2011 2:51 PM EDT up reply actions  

hehe.. it’s a projection all right, a very very simple projection that unfortunately (a few bright spots aside) has the possibility of becoming reality.

by dc Roach on May 16, 2011 2:59 PM EDT up reply actions  

I guess on the plus side there is nowhere to go but up offensively

I won’t discuss the pitching

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on May 16, 2011 10:27 PM EDT reply actions  

A jinx would be if I pointed out that Marquis is on a Cy Young pace.

But I didn’t say that. Although I have to say I will almost be sad when he is traded, but if Rizzo can pull another Ramos deal (I would recommend for a 1b prospect) then it will be worth it.

My humble proposition, if the Sox are still getting garbage from DiceK and Lackey, perhaps Lars Anderson would be available. Lousy person, but great hitter.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on May 17, 2011 1:04 AM EDT up reply actions  

Let's Hope Against.....

Desmond’s 32 Errors! lol

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on May 18, 2011 11:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Hey, it's 2 less than last year!

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on May 18, 2011 3:39 PM EDT up reply actions  

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