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Washington Nationals' First Baseman Michael Morse: The Numbers Of The Beast.

In explaining the slow start to Michael Morse's 2011 campaign, which saw the 29-year-old 1B/OF post a .211/.253/.268 slash line with one double and one home run in 23 games and 79 plate appearances in March/April after he'd hit three doubles and nine HR's with a .364/.421/.818 slash in 21 games and 66 at bats this Spring, Nats' Skipper Jim Riggleman told Sirius/XM MLB Network Radio "First Pitch" hosts Jim Memolo and Rob Dibble in an interview Wednesday morning that quite simply, "...it happens sometimes."

"A guy has such a good Spring and he almost just feels like, 'I've wasted a lot of hits,'" Riggleman said, "and he talks himself out of getting off to a good start. And [Morse] just couldn't buy a base hit practically the first month of the season, and really lost his playing time to Laynce Nix who was doing a really good job for us. We worked Mike back in there, he was starting to play a little bit, [Adam] LaRoche got hurt, we moved [Morse] to first base and he's been pretty much the same as he was in Spring Training. He's getting a lot of hits for us, he's playing an outstanding first base, and you know, it's well-deserved, he's worked really hard. He's 29-years-old and he's worked a really long time to become a regular in the big leagues and it's happening for him right now." 

Star-divide

Adam LaRoche's last game of the season was on May 21st. On May 22nd, Morse, who'd already begun to turn things around, entered play with a .267/.294/.356 slash line. On May 23rd, Morse hit his 3rd HR of the year, his first since May 3rd. He'd hit home runs in each of the next three games. Morse' monster May, in which he was 25 for 62 with five doubles, six home runs and a .403/.422/.774 slash, left him at .301/.329/.504 on May 31st. In 14 games and 56 at bats in June, Morse has a .339/.413/.696 slash. After last night's 3 for 4, 2-HR-game against the Cardinals, the Nats' first baseman has 11 doubles, 12 HR's and a .312/.352/.561 line on the year.

In what was the best stretch of his career, and really the first time he'd gotten significant at bats in the majors since making his debut with 72 games for Seattle in 2005, Morse hit 12 doubles and 15 HR's in 98 games and 293 plate appearances last season, finishing the year with a .289/.352/.519 line, a .330 BABIP, .229 ISO and a +1.1 WAR. Surely he couldn't sustain that production, he'd be exposed as an everyday player. Morse's ridiculous .442 BABIP in May this year has come down to a more reasonable .389 BABIP so far in June, but his seemingly unsustainable luck from last season has continued/increased with a .359 BABIP thus far in 2011. Morse has a .249 ISO, .390 wOBA (up from .374 in 2010), 146 wRC+ (up from 132 wRC+in '10), a +1.3 WAR. His LD% is up, 15.8% in 2010 to 19.6% this season, his HR/FB% has jumped from 19.5% in 2010 to 21.4%. 

Morse leads the Nationals with 12 HR's to Danny Espinosa's 11, RBI's with 40 to Espinosa's 37, batting average .312 to Nix's .295, (Zim's hitting .316 in 10 games). Morse's .354 OBP is the highest amongst the Nats' regulars, as is his SLG .561 to Nix's .538. The D.C. Faithful are ahead of the rest of the baseball world in embracing The People's Champion, the "BEAST MODE" t-shirt he wore on MASN the other day following the Nats' big comeback has already caught the Nationals' fanbase's attention. (Or at least the attention of the Washington Post's D.C. Sports Bog's Dan Steinberg.) Can he continue to crush pitches and play an errorless first? Are we past the point of expecting Morse to be exposed when he's playing on an everyday basis or are his 296 games and 891 career plate appearances still too small a sample size to form an opinion? Who cares, enjoy it while it lasts...

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I think he's not past the point of exposure...

But he is past the point of exposure-as-bad. He’s at the point where he could still be exposed as not-THIS-good-but-still-pretty-good. Getting knocked down to a .270ish/.320ish/.470ish slash line is probably the worst that could happen barring injuries, I think.

When he’s at 350+ career games and 1,000+ career PAs, we know where he is. So by game 122 of this season (mid-August?) we should know.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 16, 2011 3:34 PM EDT reply actions  

Agreed, some of the numbers still seem unsustainable in spite of the fact that he's actually bettered last year's results thus far...

I definitely started the season on the fence on Morse, but he’s turning me around. At the end of the season if he’s stays healthy and continues to produce (even a .270/.320/.470) line I’ll be happy to have been wrong.

It is fun to watch someone realize their potential though, rare as it is at 28-29.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jun 16, 2011 3:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Unsustainable" is relative, too.

Remember, Morse has a career BABIP os .350, and an expected BABIP of .329. He hits the ball hard and should have a higher-than-league-average BABIP.

"I don't believe in luck, but it was just one of those things where it wasn't really skill, either." --Jerry, jr.

by Doghouse on Jun 16, 2011 3:49 PM EDT up reply actions  

He hits it hahd...

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jun 16, 2011 3:54 PM EDT up reply actions  

Agreed.

I was eyeballing the numbers, but was thinking a lowered (due to “exposure”) BABIP to a career .320.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 16, 2011 3:57 PM EDT up reply actions  

Not too excited, but excited, getting out of the basement is always nice.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jun 16, 2011 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions  

Especially not that excited since we're tied for fourth, so we're still in last, just not fifth.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 16, 2011 3:58 PM EDT up reply actions  

Oh. Silly day games. I only watch them when they involve my team.

I also only tally division status after all games for a day have been played.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 16, 2011 4:02 PM EDT up reply actions  

AdamKilgoreWP:
The Marlins lost. The #Nats are alone in 4th in the NL East. Last time they weren’t in last this late or later in the year: 2007.

[editor – emphasis mine]

by dc Roach on Jun 16, 2011 5:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

heh. channeling your inner Law

who sees Morse as “less than … a poor man’s Richie Sexson”. feh.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, but isn't a cucumber that small called a gherkin?"

by jbg2772 on Jun 16, 2011 3:58 PM EDT reply actions  

Yeah, lotta h8erz out there when it comes to Morse

I don’t really understand why – Jayson Werth, for one nearby example, proves you can take a dramatic step up in your late 20s.

Anyway, I’d take any reasonable semblance of Richie Sexson circa 1999-2006 any day of the week.

by ricksnats on Jun 16, 2011 4:36 PM EDT up reply actions  

I knew he was going to be awesome in 2009

when he came out to Afrika Bambaataa’s Looking for the Perfect Beat

(What does he come out to these days? He wasn’t in the lineup the few Nats games I’ve taken in this year)

by dgriot on Jun 16, 2011 4:30 PM EDT reply actions  

A-Ha's "Take on Me"?

Yes, this song. Think he mixes in a Beastie Boys song sometimes.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jun 16, 2011 4:33 PM EDT up reply actions  

He does. I don't know which one except that it's not "Fight For Your Right," "Sabotage," or "No Sleep Till Brooklyn"

Haveta say I like Zim using “The Show Goes On” lately.

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 16, 2011 5:45 PM EDT up reply actions  

"Slow and Low"

"I don't believe in luck, but it was just one of those things where it wasn't really skill, either." --Jerry, jr.

by Doghouse on Jun 16, 2011 6:46 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions  

I know I'm too touchy feely about such things, but I will just enjoy his performance while it lasts.

Like the great Han Solo once said, “Never tell me the odds.”

That’s how I feel when you killjoys pull out the calculators and go all “math club” on us number-challenged. [sarcasm alert] :)

In all seriousness I’m firmly in the “you’re not as bad or good as your recent streaks would suggest” so I go with the flow.

Patiently waiting for "next year" since 1971.

by Princess Jazzy on Jun 16, 2011 4:34 PM EDT via mobile reply actions  

If someone consistently "beats the numbers", then maybe there's a flaw with the category

Obviously he won’t hit .400 every month. But I think he will continue to be a very good player. Certainly good enough to be the Nats’ regular 1B this year and for some years to come.

He hits the ball hard most of the time. Those aren’t going to be as easy to catch as lightly hit balls. And if half of his hits are HRs and he’s still hitting a lot of HRs for the rest of the year, variations in the BABIP don’t matter too much. He’ll still be producing and driving in a lot of runs.

-------------------------------------------------
"Save it. I'm goin' for a smoothie."
The Washington Nationals, the team of the 2010s!

by Potomac Fan on Jun 16, 2011 5:09 PM EDT reply actions  

The Unsustainable Beast!!!

Riggleman: "He’s all about the LR matchups, but he doesn’t seem to spend much time paying attention to the actual players involved." by d_c_guy on Apr 30, 2011

by cat daddy3000 on Jun 16, 2011 5:14 PM EDT up reply actions  

NationalsPR: RT @capitalweather For #Nats game, worst of storms will have probably passed by first pitch

What a mind bender … Why should you ever trust trust a PR statement based on a weather forecast?

Plenty more rain coming after game has started, even if by some chance the first few innings get played dry.

by dc Roach on Jun 16, 2011 5:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Unsustainable? Shee-ut, yer a picky bunch, aren't ye?

Nothing good lasts forever, and damn few good things ever happen at all, come to think. Baseball seasons are long seasons, and, for the most part, they are composed of streaks. We’re onna’ good’un right now, and can’t ask for more – damn sight better than bein’ onna’ bad’un.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers." - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Jun 16, 2011 5:47 PM EDT reply actions  

Tonites lineup will have Pujols, Berkman and Holliday batting back-to-back-to-back. Tough trio.

"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values

by sullyzz on Jun 16, 2011 6:12 PM EDT reply actions  

LaRussa won't sprinkle 'em through the line-up, the bastud.

Riggleman just can’t teach him nuthin’.

"The key to winning baseball games is pitching, fundamentals, and three run homers." - Earl Weaver

by Whupass on Jun 16, 2011 6:18 PM EDT up reply actions  

laroche's surgery was successful

but now that we’re all loving on morse, successful may not be the right word. jk, good luck and get well adam

by TJL on Jun 16, 2011 6:23 PM EDT reply actions  

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