The Nats Bullpen - Top 5 Lists Galore

by dc Roach on Jun 7, 2011 2:31 PM EDT

The bullpen keeps games interesting, doesn't it? Every member of the Nationals' bullpen has struggled at times this season, and yet they do usually get the job done. I decided to take an in depth look at who the Nats best relief pitchers really are deep down in their stats, and decided to share some of my journey through a plethora of top 5 lists with light commentary. Enjoy, if stats are your thing.

A few comments: These stats run through June 6, the first game vs the Giants.

I left two pitchers out of the rankings - Craig Stammen and Colin Balester - because of ESSS (extremely small sample size). So, in the following rankings you will see the top five out of nine relief pitchers in each list.

	ERA
Henry Rodriguez	1.65
Cole Kimball	2.03
Tyler Clippard	2.08
Doug Slaten	2.19
Todd Coffey	2.38

Remember, ERA and any other stat with Doug Slaten in the top five should be used very judiciously.

	FIP
Todd Coffey	2.54
Henry Rodriguez	2.57
Drew Storen	2.97
Tyler Clippard	3.34
Brian Broderick	3.51

FIP, designed to bump the Doug Slatens of this world off the leaderboards.

	xFIP
Tyler Clippard	2.89
Drew Storen	3.21
Todd Coffey	3.23
Henry Rodriguez	3.55
Sean Burnett	4.19

xFIP normalizes home run percentages, which has been Clippard's weakness. If you remember only one top 5 list, remember this one.

	WHIP
Tyler Clippard	0.92
Drew Storen	0.99
Todd Coffey	1.01
Sean Burnett	1.20
Rodriguez/Kimball	1.35

Walks + Hits / Innings Pitched. These guys know how to limit baserunners.

	K/9
Henry Rodriguez	11.57
Tyler Clippard	10.90
Chad Gaudin	10.80
Todd Coffey	9.13
Drew Storen	7.71

Gaudin makes his first appearance. There was some reason he stuck around for a while, after all.

	BB/9
Brian Broderick	2.19
Drew Storen	2.37
Sean Burnett	2.49
Tyler Clippard	2.86
Todd Coffey	3.18

Do you miss Broderick? Walks are one reason why you could if you wanted to.

	HR/9
Brian Broderick	0.00
Cole Kimball	0.00
Henry Rodriguez	0.00
Todd Coffey	0.40
Sean Burnett	0.42

Lots of Nats have successfully avoided the long ball. Nothing kills a relief outing like one of those.

	TBF/IP
Tyler Clippard	3.7
Drew Storen	4.0
Todd Coffey	4.1
Cole Kimball	4.2
Sean Burnett	4.2

Total Batters Faced / Innings pitched. This is another way to look at pitcher's ability to minimize baserunners.

	XBH%
Henry Rodriguez	1.5%
Sean Burnett	3.3%
Cole Kimball	3.6%
Brian Broderick	5.3%
Drew Storen	6.6%

Extra Base Hit Percentage. League Average is 7.1%. Make them play small ball!

	OPS
Todd Coffey	.549
Henry Rodriguez	.553
Drew Storen	.564
Cole Kimball	.584
Tyler Clippard	.590

League Average OPS against is .709. For reference, Slaten sports a 1.049 OPS against.

	IS%
Todd Coffey	1-15
Chad Gaudin	1-7
Tyler Clippard	6-30
Drew Storen	2-9
Henry Rodriguez	1-2

Inherited Runners Scored Percentage. Slaten (15-30) has the same percentage as Rodriguez, but doesn't deserve to be on this top 5 list. (For those wondering, Coffey is at 7%, Gaudin at 14%, Clip at 20 %, Storen at 22%. League Average is 31%)

	Pit/PA
Brian Broderick	3.33
Doug Slaten	3.38
Drew Storen	3.61
Sean Burnett	3.75
Todd Coffey	3.99

Pitches per Plate Appearance. These guys mow through the opposition efficiently. Except in Slaten's case, the opposition mows through him.

	Con
Henry Rodriguez	62%
Tyler Clippard	65%
Todd Coffey	73%
Doug Slaten	74%
Kimball/Storen	78%

Contact Percentage (Percentage of strikes thrown that a batter connects with - foul or in play). League Average is 79%. These guys' strikes are hard to hit. Gotta love a strike swinging!

	0-2%
Henry Rodriguez	36%
Drew Storen	35%
Tyler Clippard	31%
Cole Kimball	28%
Sean Burnett	23%

0-2 Counts / PA. League Average is 23%. These guys challenge hitters.

	bWAR
Tyler Clippard	1.1
Drew Storen	0.6
Henry Rodriguez	0.5
Todd Coffey	0.3
Cole Kimball	0.3

Value Above Replacement according to Baseball Reference.

	fWAR
Drew Storen	0.5
Todd Coffey	0.4
Tyler Clippard	0.4
Henry Rodriguez	0.2
Burnett/Broderick	0.1

Value above Replacement according to Fangraphs. Yup, that Rule 5 guy is trying to sneak in there.

	BABIP
Tyler Clippard	.225
Todd Coffey	.233
Drew Storen	.235
Cole Kimball	.235
Sean Burnett	.275
Henry Rodriguez	.306
Brian Broderick	.333
Doug Slaten	.372
Chad Gaudin	.423

Luck. Can players influence this? I'm going to go out on a limb and say that Gaudin and Slaten were not suffering from bad luck. They just stunk. Everyone else is having a good year so far, with only Rodriguez above the league average of .295.

So, who comes out looking good overall?

Well, ignoring the WAR and BABIP charts, there were fourteen top 5 lists. Storen and Coffey made 12 of them. Clippard and Rodriguez made 11 each. Kimball & Burnett at 8 each.

If I weight by position (#1 = 5 pts, #2 = 4 pts, etc) then Rodriguez comes out on top with 41 points, with Clippard at 37 and Storen and Coffey each with 34 points. Then Kimball at 19.

The Nationals bullpen is anchored by four men: Tyler "Peaches" Clippard, Drew Storen, Todd Coffey and Henry "Lightning" Rodriguez. No one of them is heads and shoulders above the rest. Each has his strengths and his weaknesses. Each has his fun quirks, and each is fun to watch.

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Comments

"Remember, ERA and any other stat with Doug Slaten in the top five should be used very judiciously."

That gave me a good chuckle

by Brotato on Jun 7, 2011 2:42 PM EDT reply actions

As did the explanation for his pitches per at bat metrics.

Overall, I still don’t feel good when Rodriguez comes in, despite how his stats play out. he just doesn’t feel safe, although I may have just caught only his lousy performances (except last night when I was asleep),

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jun 7, 2011 7:06 PM EDT up reply actions

Agree.

This piece seems to me to puff up Rodriguez more than he merits.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Jun 7, 2011 9:39 PM EDT up reply actions

Sigh.. I tried to avoid making it about him

His xFIP suggests he is the worst of the four top guys. The rest of the numbers help show how he’s had the success he’s had. Personally, I think there’s a good deal of luck involved. Yes, he’s harder to hit than most, but opponents have also hit just one extra base hit off of him (and he got out of that jam).

Perhaps you would feel more comfortable by thinking of Storen, Clippard and Coffey as the top three, and Rodriguez as the guy who’s set himself apart from the rest of the pack. His workload is 5th on the team now, so I think complaints about SSS are behind us. Don’t expect a sub 2.00 ERA for long, but expect him to be out there with the best of them on a regular basis.

by dc Roach on Jun 7, 2011 10:08 PM EDT up reply actions

I can live with that analysis

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jun 7, 2011 11:49 PM EDT via mobile up reply actions

Rec'd

I really hope that the Nationals don’t trade Clippard (much less plus a good prospect) to the Rays for Upton. The Nationals already have plenty of players who can’t hit, and sending Clippard both makes the 8th inning much more of an adventure for the Nationals and makes the Rays much tougher for the Yankees to deal with.

by d_c_guy on Jun 8, 2011 12:29 PM EDT reply actions

Well, that second reason is pretty compelling

for us in the “please don’t let the g_d_ Yankees make it to the playoffs AGAIN” crowd.

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Jun 8, 2011 1:35 PM EDT up reply actions

While true, I'd rather keep Clippard.

Now, if they’d like Lightning Rod and Slaten for Upton… smirk

"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane

by Jorgath on Jun 8, 2011 3:12 PM EDT up reply actions

How about Desi? Harper was of the opinion that Desi is still starting so that he can come around and be a tradeable asset.

With Rendon being drafted, I could see this being more likely, with Spinner moving to SS. It kills me to write this because Desi was one of my favorite players on the team last year.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jun 9, 2011 8:15 AM EDT up reply actions

Not this year?

Desi is playing masterful D this year. And occasionally, not often, he hits the ball too!

Rob

-- In baseball we trust.

by RobBobS on Jun 9, 2011 10:00 AM EDT up reply actions

Looking at any one of these,

it’s the affirmation of (one of my) statistics profs’ statement that you can prove anything with the right statistic. In the aggregate, though, very nice job. I think the telling point on Rodriguez is the lists on which he does not appear: Bat/IP, BB/9 and Pit/PA point out his lack of command. What’s interesting is that he ranks at the top of 0-2%.

Nice job!

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, but isn't a cucumber that small called a gherkin?"

by jbg2772 on Jun 8, 2011 7:14 PM EDT reply actions