Draft, Team Building & ROY talk (a conversation from MLBTR posts)
by RepConsul on Aug 17, 2011 4:50 PM EDT
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PrintA conversation I had/have from Nationals Spend Big In Draft @ MLBTRs.
Nats Fan Post: Those were the same no-brainers as Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin in the NHL. It's the rest of the draft class the past several years and particularly this year that has the Nats GM and fans excited.
Pirates Fan Post: That's all well and good, but the fact is, how can you call yourself a great scouting and development org when most of those players haven't even reached the majors yet?
My Response: Seriously? Zimmerman, Espinosa, Desmond, Storen, traded and developed Morse, Clippard, H. Rodriguez, traded for Ramos, drafted half the bullpen.
A Team with a farm system that was decimated by the MLB owning it and other teams poaching it came to DC 6 years ago. Rizzo became the VP of operations, scouting director (and some other titles) a year later; with decent drafts working with an idiot of a GM in Bowden. Since he took over as GM he has had some very productive drafts, takes awhile to fix a farm system devoid of talent. Quit focusing on the "no brainers" of Strasburg and Harper, the farm system isn't highly ranked because a lot of the bigger names ARE in the majors now, not blocked by older players like most teams.
Pirates Fan Post: Yes, really. I never said that those players aren't going to be great. But to call yourself great before any of those guys has had a major impact is silly. A couple players making it to the majors doesn't denote great. It's a nice start, but nothing more.
My Response: "We're the talk of the industry right now" doesn't = "calling himself great"It means this and last year they signed a LOT of players other teams either said were impossible to sign and passed on; or have drafted in prior years and could not sign. A Lot of highly rated prospects in a short amount of time... he has a right to toot his own horn for getting that done.
Also, if you mean the players, will leave out Strasburg and Harper, who haven't done anything yet...
Zimmerman: Silver Slugger & Gold glove
Espinosa: Likely to win ROY. (articles on this)(check fangraphs, ranked #1 NL ROY #'s)
Ramos: Has been in the ROY conversation. (articles on this)(check fangraphs, Tied #2 in ROY #'s)(also 2nd ranked defensive catcher in NL)
Morse: Is in MVP talks if he keeps up what he's been doing this year. (articles on this)
Clippard: All-Star setup-man
Storen: Rookie with 5/6th most saves in NL
________________
Outside of those who are proving themselves or have...
Desmond is a highly rated young player, but Rendon is likely to take over @ 2nd; moving Espinosa back to SS where he is even better.
That gives you a lineup of drafted/developed/traded for prospects likely for 2013 of:
C:Ramos
1st: Morse
2nd: Rendon
SS: Espinosa
3rd: Zimmerman
LF: Harper
CF: ? free agent signing, possibly Brian Goodwin from this years draft.
RF: Werth (only outside signing, hope he starts hitting, but still 2nd ranked defensive RF in NL)
Bullpen young/highly rated, almost all from Nats. system or trade/developed, topped by Clippard/Storen.
Starting pitchers:
1. Strasburg, 2. Zimmermann, 3. ?, 4. ?, 5. Lannan/young guy.
the 3/4/5 guys likely come from the 5/6 highly rated Pitching prospects from this and last years draft + peacock/Milone in AAA now. Could sign a quality veteran also.
________________
That's a LOT of work Rizzo has done. Even though i think you took it out of context, he can call himself great if he wants to. Next year the Nats will be competitive, 2013 onward they should be very very good. Sooner they get a CF/lead-off guy (if not Goodwin) and Starting Pitchers up, the sooner it all comes together.
Braves Fan Post: I doubt Espinosa is ROY. I think
Freddie Freeman has it in the bag.
My Response: Danny Espinosa: AVG .223(14th), HR 17(1st), RBI 55(2nd), SB 12(1st), BB 8% (11th)
Freddie Freeman: AVG .295(3rd), HR 16(2nd), RBI 60(1st), SB 4(7th), BB 8.4% (10th)
They both strike out a LOT. Can argue that Freeman gets a LOT more chances @ the plate because of the braves lineup. Freeman is largely hitting in the 3rd spot this year, so they have to pitch to him. Even when he hits from the 5th spot, usually they put chipper or Heyward behind him.
As an example of Espinosa getting pitched outside/inside a LOT, he has been HBP 16 times, leading rookies by a LOT, compared to Freemans 5. With that Freeman has a .112 lead in OPS and a higher AVG.
Danny Espinosa: Flding: 3.2 (2nd), Bsr 2.5 (2nd)
Freddie Freeman: Flding: -8.3 (worst among all qualified rookies), Bsr -2.3 (worst among all qualified rookies),
Combined Espinosa has a WAR of 2.7(1st) vs Freemans WAR of 1.6(4th)
(Ramos has a WAR of 1.7, tied for 2nd)
The divide mostly comes with being a 2 way player; do the voters only look at power #'s regardless of teams? or, Do they look at the total player? Hitting + Defense + what they do on-base? If its just power regardless of oppertunities/teams they play on, they are 4th and 6th compared to other rookies, Freeman having the edge. With Freemans team and where he is being hit/protected he has a higher AVG/OBP then other rookies with comparable games played. Espinosa is 4th on that list, with similar games played, none of the others have the benefits Freeman has with how the Braves are playing him. Not knocking him for it, if is productive there, DO IT! Compared to Espinosa he is a 1 way player (defensive liability even), it all depends on how the ROY is voted on, on the total player or if its just the AVG; and do they look at the oportunities the ROY candidates are being given on their teams?
Comparable power, comparable HR, comparable RBI, Comparable walk %, Comparable SO%. It comes down to average vs opportunities; + accounting for SB/Base-running and Fielding/Defense.
Even with Espinosa's recent slump, he still leads in overall #'s.
Thoughts?
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It still irks me that
Desmond is thrown under the bus, and Espi is granted shortstop. This apparently is based upon Espinosa’s bat, which has produced a .223/.309/.408 slash line in the first 120 games of his rookie career, which isn’t quite as good as Desmond’s .274/.314/.412 slash line in the first 120 games of HIS rookie season.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
People have some selective memory with Espi
seem to forget that he has had a BA over .212 for one month this season.
Even so...
(copied from my comment in the Morse post on front page)
Espinosa is leading ROY #’s with a 2.7 WAR (closest is 1 WAR behind) and a very + defender with power. Having a slump right now, but projected as a much better player and equal to better SS defensively compared to Desmond. Desmond has a WAR of .7 right now, high of 1.3 last year when he was a poor defensive SS with flashes (-8.8 flding.) Desmond has a lot of potential, likely to be a + defensive SS and decent hitter; good base speed/SB #s when he does get on.
So i think its just more of a competition between Desmond and Rendon for the future. I like Desmond, would have no issues with it staying how it is, but he is likely to be traded in my eyes. Maybe not for a year (or more) until we see what Rendon has.
____________________
Not completely based on his bat, look at his defensive #s also. Still projected to be as very good or better at SS. He played SS for his entire baseball career before being called up here. Espinosa and Rendon have a chance to have a lot more value then Desmond/Espinosa do. We don’t know for sure yet, but that’s the assumption most are working on.
Nobody projects Espinosa as a better defender than Desmond
Desmond just has more range and a better arm. I agree than Rendon has easily the highest ceiling, but Desmond could end up being better than Espinosa easily.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Desmond has more range and a better arm? Ye' don't say.
A facile statement – based upon what, a suspicion? Where have you seen Espinosa play short-stop? We are fortunate to have them both, but I completely disagree that nobody projects Espinosa as the better defender. It’s for this reason that I personally believe Ian Desmond will be traded, Espinosa moved to short , and a player to be named inserted at second. Not that anything’s wrong with Desmond – we just really need a quality CFer.
"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver
Espinosa can play short-stop - probably as well as Desmond - and that makes Desmond expendable
It’s as simple as that.
"On my tombstone just write, 'The sorest loser that ever lived.'" - Earl Weaver
Voters don't look at sabermetrics last time I checked
Kimbrel or Freeman will end up with the award, deserving or not
If Espi had continued his pace from the first half,
he would definitely be in the conversation due to the HRs and RBIs.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
His success is more because he is a rookie and opposing teams didn’t have any or much video of his swing. Now that there is a lot of video, his swing has been analyzed and holes have been found. It’s up to Espi to show the pitchers he can adapt. It’s similar to every pitcher dominating Desi on the low outside corner for a while before he showed he could lay off it.
Espinosa
hasn’t driven in a run or hit a HR since July 17th. That really dropped him out of RotY consideration in my opnion. He’ll have to go on a tear to get back into conversations about it.
by Andrew Davidson on Aug 18, 2011 3:20 PM EDT up reply actions
Glad We Signed Rendon....
Now, lets’ see IF he can play professional baseball…..even in MiLB. If he and/or Lombardozzi prove they are the next Jeff Kent, I’m sure there are plenty of teams who would LOVE to have Dez and/or Espi. Right now, however, I am very content having Dez and Espi patrol our MIF. Let’s go get a CF Lead-Off Hitter some other way.
"Integrity First, Service Before Self, Excellence In All We Do" - USAF Core Values
Still wouldn't be upset
If the Nationals got Span for Storen, Berny, and Dozzi at the deadline… oh well
Don’t forget about Brian Goodwin, he’s got all the tools and potential to be a great CF lead-off, and he’s a lefty(freak of nature)
Maxwell had all the tools, too....
Goodness knows I don’t wish that on Goodwin or us Nats fans.
Five tool players
Are probably not MORE likely to bust than less-well-balanced guys, it just SEEMS like they are.
Rob
-- In baseball we trust.
Yes, but luckily the hitting for average tool is the one that is supposed to be the most advanced for Goodwin
That’s the one that tends to make most 5 tool players busts.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
Span's back on the DL with concussion syndrome
not that that necessarily precludes him playing in ’12, but the recurrence is troubling. See Koskie, Cory as an example.
Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, but isn't a cucumber that small called a gherkin?"
I'm sorry to hear that about Span
Can’t be much fun going through your days in a daze, headache, sensitivity to light, etc. Hope he feels better soon.
Do not want to trade Storen...
But, if they do go about doing that, this is the year to do it, a TON of closers on the market this off-season. Storen, still has a lot of upside, very young, cheap, wants to be here…would rather keep him.
Brian Goodwin is a bit raw because of his college situation, might take 2 years by the most optimistic projections, to get up to the big-leagues. Good article here about the draft class and Goodwin.
Brian Goodwin:
For some Goodwin was a late first round pick, so the fact that the Nationals landed him in the sandwich round is good value. Goodwin is younger than most college prospects since he is coming from a Junior College program after transferring from UNC, but the upside really shines through. He was considered a borderline first round talent out of H.S. two years ago, and really nothing has changed to diminish his upside. He still has a very good and advanced hit tool, with excellent speed, and average power. He is projected to develop even more power as he fills out and should be a top of the order bat.
He projects as a potential Gold Glove caliber defender as his speed will allow him to cover a ton of ground and his arm appears to be above average. He’s a little unrefined in CF as he spent his freshmen year playing RF. Basically given his age, he just needs repetitions. While Scott Boras clients don’t typically sign early it would be nice to get him in for some extra work in Low-A this summer. Longterm he projects very well and should easily take over CF duties from whomever the Nationals have there.
Chance of reaching his potential: 80%, I love Goodwin’s approach, and I believe he can stay in center field, which means his hitting only has to be average for him to be a very good player.
http://fanspeak.com/washingtonnationals/2011/08/18/nats-draft-class-sets-them-up-for-the-future/
personally
i don’t think you can claim to have a great drafting and development team. not to say that you don’t have some great prospects or that they won’t be stars… their obviously very highly thought of throughout minor league baseball.
However, this isn’t so much attributed to anything your front office did, so much as it is a result of having a top 10 draft pick for the last five years. Drafting that high allows for a much higher chance of success and star talent. It’s more of a crapshoot and therefore takes more skill to draft at the end of each round year after year. so, i wouldn’t go around bragging about how smart your scouting and development has been… puhlease.
by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Sep 9, 2011 1:38 AM EDT reply actions
Except that those top 10 picks make up almost none of the players in the Nationals' minor league system
Anthony Rendon this year and Bryce Harper from last year; that’s pretty much it. Other top 10 picks from the past few years are already in the majors (Strasburg, Storen, Detwiler, Zimmerman) and so don’t count when assessing a minor league system. But somehow third party analyst regard the system as having improved over the past two years from a threadbare bottom 5 to solidly middle of the pack … before this draft. Don’t take our word for it; we’re looking to what Keith Law at ESPN says, to Baseball America and to John Sickels of Minor League Baseball. I’ve seen no commentator that ranked the Nationals’ 2011 draft outside of the top three this year, and several have them rated as the #1 draft this year.
Neither Brad Peacock nor Derek Norris were top 10 picks, but both have been rated as being among the top 50 minor league prospects. A.J. Cole, Robbie Ray, Sammy Solis, Tom Milone and Danny Rosenbaum on the mound the Nationals are in excellent shape there. Their best position prospects (Destin Hood, Eury Perez, etc) are a little farther away. You could also count Matt Antonelli (former Padre 1st round pick missed two years with wrist injuries, back and healthy and hitting in Syracuse this year) and Erik Komatsu because they were free agents or trade acquisitions, but they also fortify the system.
Perhaps you undervalue what has been done to get the system to where it is because you aren’t as familiar with where it was. Stepping back and looking at the fast rising arc of the system, it’s hard not to be impressed with the work done in drafting and developing talent.
I was replying to the original post
in which the person cited players that the nationals had developed that were in the major leagues now. As I said, the success rate for picks in the first 10 rounds is much higher. So, to tout your development system for all these great players you now have in the majors is a little ridiculous considering the talent pool you all have had to choose from the past 5 years.
by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Sep 9, 2011 8:33 PM EDT up reply actions
The first 10 rounds? Wow ...
… even where the success rate his “higher” for picks in the first 10 rounds, it’s not all that high. Every team has picks in the first 10 rounds, occasionally 12-15 picks thanks to the supplemental rounds. That’s why I thought you were talking about top 10 picks overall – most teams never see those picks, and the Nationals have seen a bunch.
But you’re right, if his argument is based on Zimmerman, Strasburg, Storen and Detwiler (ish), it’s not very strong. I turn to the argument that I made about the rest of the players coming up in they system now, as well as the assessments by industry observers that the Nationals’ farm system has been rising meteorically the past two years.
i'm sorry i mistyped
i meant the first 10 picks…
by you'vejustbeenCAINED on Sep 10, 2011 1:32 AM EDT up reply actions
That makes sense
But that’s why I base my arguments on all the rest of the players, and the progress the system has made based on the opinions of third party analysts.
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