2012 Rotation, co-opted and revisited

But finally they are good variables for the Nationals. Given that he’s been so good this year, and that Stras is on an innings limit, I’d have JZim start Opening Day. This may also let them line up Stras to pitch the home opener. :) Beyond that, it’s all a muddle. Consider:

1. The Nationals may trade from their positions of depth in the organization (pitcher, catcher, middle infield) for a CF/leadoff type. Potential targets are Grady Sizemore (if the Indians don’t pick up his option), Denard Span and Michael Bourn (in the unlikely event that the Braves don’t offer him arbitration). Both Sizemore and Span are risks since they have to prove they are healthy (add a kudo from me to Rizzo for walking away from the Span deal before the deadline). If Werth can play CF you could make the leadoff a corner OF, but he’d better play defense (Morse + Werth + marginal defense =/= SPAD!).

2. If the Nationals decide they really need thump in their lineup, they may go RobBob and go all-in for Prince Fielder. Think Adam Dunn, but 5 years younger. It will probably take more than 5 years to get him though. If the Nats do sign Fielder, add Morse to the trade chip file unless the Nationals can get a top defensive CF to cover up for Morse’s lack of range.

3. Having left handed starters in a division with lefty-heavy teams in Philly and Atlanta is a good thing, which argues for keeping at least 1 and possibly 2 of the Lannan/Detwiler/Milone troika. Forget Sabathia, he’s likely to opt out because he knows the Yankees have to pay whatever it takes to keep him – but that means the Yankees are keeping him. Buerhle is a possibility, but he’s been shaky lately and there is a general assumption that he’s staying in Chicago, going to his hometown in St. Louis, or retiring. C.J. Wilson is a possibility, but has his own risks – would you be getting the guy from 2010-2011, or would you get the guy with the undistinguished career up until then? This could be a classic “buy high” scenario for someone.

4. Whither Wang? He’s saying all the right things about wanting to stay, but that probably just gets the Nats a right of first refusal. How much would you really want to invest in a guy as a “veteran innings eater” when he’s only had 8-10 starts over 3 seasons?

5. How ready are Harper, Rendon and Purke? They are the big stories to watch for the Nationals in the AFL. None are likely to start 2012 in DC, however. Not for Super 2 reasons, because they all are already on ML contracts. But how close (or far away) they look ripples through other decisions.

6. The ultimate wild card for the rotation is Yu Darvish. He’s young (just turned 25), throws hard, and is dominating Nippon baseball like no one ever has. Unlike signing a free agent, there’s no draft pick cost – just money. And it’s not clear how much money either. There’s a lot of hype, but the record of Japanese pitchers in MLB is checkered at best.

So Rizzo & the Nats will navigate through the possibilities. Remember for any trade, the other team has to think that they are getting good value. It amuses me when I see posts about getting Brett Gardner from the Yankees or Felix Hernandez from the Mariners for a pile of mediocre players and unproven prospects. Not going to happen. The same is true for free agents – every other team in MLB will be looking at the same market. That’s why so many teams have been locking down their starters.

So my take is – play through the offseason variables, bring the rest to camp and let them fight it out there, let the quality rise to the top. The team will probably need at least 8-10 starters over the season anyway.

Of course, it’s fun to talk about :D

It looks like Wang will be back for 2012, since both sides seemingly want him to be a National. So now it doesn’t make a lot of sense for the Nats to sign a back-end vet, since a) they aren’t likely to make the playoffs next year, so it makes more sense to test out a youngin’ and b) they have that in Wang already. This doesn’t mean the Nats won’t splurge on a top-end vet, but that would have to be a long-term deal to be worth it. Let’s assume for now that they won’t.

So now it’s Milone, Peacock, or Detwiler for #5. Detwiler has been pretty good, but I’m not sure he has the upside of the other two – it seems (at least to me, anyway) that he’s shown his potential. I’d rather see him operating out of the pen as a lefty LR, especially since he has better numbers in the pen and struggles when facing batters for the third time. Though Gorzelanny is another lefty LR – soooo….trade Gorzelanny (unless Detwiler really earns that starting spot).