Game 137: Well, that was eventful.

Tonight's post-game: Another memorable Nats win.
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via www.fangraphs.com

  • Memorable debut: Tommy "The Bomber" Milone (-12.0% pitching, +7.0% hitting) throws three scoreless, but gives up 4 ER in the 4th and only gets one out in the 5th.  However, he jacks a three-run bomb into the home bullpen in the 2nd to pad the early lead (+10.6%).
  • Support the rookie: Ian Desmond (+6.5%) hits a solo shot for the early lead (+10.3%), while Roger Bernadina (+4.5%) hits one to pad the mid-game lead (+11.4%).
  • Was the bullpen mad about being bombed? Tom Gorzelanny (-14.5%) gives up two runs to tie it, while Tyler Clippard (-15.0%) lets the go-behind run score in the 7th.
  • Rally time: Jesus Flores (+30.2%) singles to start the bottom of the 9th (+11.3%), Brian Bixler (his PR) takes 2nd on a WP (+11.0%), and Ryan Zimmerman (+43.4%) hits a bases-loaded bloop that drops in for two runs and the walkoff (+47.0%).

Bonus WE fun after the jump!  Is the "common wisdom" right?

Here are the last few plays of the game with the associated WE:

Pitcher Player Outs Base Score Inning - Bottom 9 LI WE
B Parnell R Zimmerman 1 123 8-7 Ryan Zimmerman singled to second (Fliner (Fly)). Brian Bixler scored. Jonny Gomes scored. Roger Bernadina advanced to 2B. 9.02 100.0 %
B Parnell R Bernadina 1 _23 6-7 Roger Bernadina was intentionally walked. 5.92 53.0 %
B Parnell I Desmond 0 12_ 6-7 Ian Desmond sacrificed to pitcher (Bunt Grounder). Brian Bixler advanced to 3B. Jonny Gomes advanced to 2B. 6.18 53.4 %
B Parnell J Gomes 0 _2_ 6-7 Jonny Gomes walked. 4.37 50.9 %
B Parnell B Bixler 0 1__ 6-7 Brian Bixler advanced on a wild pitch to 2B. 5.40 43.4 %
B Parnell J Flores 0 ___ 6-7 Jesus Flores singled to left (Fliner (Liner)). 3.39 32.4 %

 

You know it drives me crazy when position players bunt, but in this case, Desmond's sac bunt increase the team's Win Expectancy (WE) from 50.9% to 53.4%, for +2.5% WPA.  Moving a runner to 3rd with one out (while also removing the chance for a GDP) more than made up for giving away an out in this case.  Walking Bernadina, although it did bring up Zim, actually slightly decreased the WE from 53.4% to 53.0%.  Creating the chance for a GDP made up for putting an extra man on base.

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