Washington Nationals: 2012 Bullpen Set Or In Need Of A Veteran Presence?
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 2, 2012 9:01 AM EST
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Having added Gio Gonzalez to the mix in the Washington Nationals' starting rotation, D.C. GM Mike Rizzo talked to reporters recently about the depth in the organization that allowed them to make the trade with the Oakland A's and about the competition there will be this Spring to decide which pitchers head north as starters and which end up in the pen. "We've got [Stephen] Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, John Lannan," Rizzo said, "We also have guys who can start and compete for a starting job, there's Tom Gorzelanny, Craig Stammen." The decision, assuming everyone's healthy and ready to start the season on time, will come down to which two pitchers of the three: Wang, Detwller and Lannan fill out the rotation and what role the pitcher who doesn't make it will play. The Nats' general manager said all three will likely start the season with the team.
"They are three quality pitchers," Rizzo explained, "so I don't see them not being on the big league club. But there's going to be competition so we'll see how that all pans out during Spring Training." Gorzelanny transitioned to the pen again late last season after starting 15 games for Washington. The 29-year-old left-hander told reporters, including the Washington Times' Amanda Comak that he'd prefer to start, but worked well out of the pen and now simply wanted to know which role he'd play.
Stammen, 27, spent most of his time starting at Triple-A Syracuse last season, but he'll have a hard time winning a starting job in the 2012 Nats' rotation, and he worked exclusively out of the pen for Davey Johnson when he was called up in September.
Gorzelanny and Stammen as the left and right-handed long men. Sean Burnett, Tyler Clippard and Drew Storen as the A pen with Henry Rodriguez, Ryan Mattheus, newly-acquired right-hander Ryan Perry, Atahualpa Severino and Yunesky Maya battling it out to see who stays in the Nationals' pen and who ends up In Syracuse.
In a recent interview, the Nationals' general manager told MLB Network Radio host Mike Ferrin that one thing there was still work to be done this winter, 'We'd like to supplement our bullpen a little bit. Get a little veteran presence in there," Rizzo said. Todd Coffey, 31, was (5-1) with a 3.62 ERA, 3.41 FIP, 6.94 K/9 and 3.02 BB/9 in 69 games and 59.2 IP with Washington last season, but since he told MLB.com writer Bill Ladson he wasn't sure what hte future held for him in early December, not much has been heard about the 6'4'', 240 lb right-hander. Could Coffey fill a role again, or will Washington find another veteran presence? Can right-hander Rafael Martin qualify as a veteran presence and continue the unllkely journey he's taken through the Mexican League to the majors? Will a rehabbed Cole Kimball play a role in the 2012 pen?
ESPN.com's Buster Olney had the Nationals ranked eighth overall in the majors on his recent list of the Top 10 Bullpens in baseball. The ESPN.com writer cited their 3.20 team ERA (5th overall in MLB in 2011) and the presence of 27-year-old right-hander Tyler Clippard, "... who had an 0.84 WHIP and held opponents to a .535 OPS," while also posting the, "... lowest BABIP among relievers with at least 60 innings last season," and Drew Storen, whose 43 saves were the 6th most in the majors, as the reason for his high opinion of the Nats' pen, calling Clippard and Storen, "... good anchors for what should be a good bullpen."
Should the Nationals trade from their bullpen depth to get the center fielder they want, a possibility which seems unlikely these days, Mr. Olney's colleague and the Nats' former GM Jim Bowden suggested that unsigned former Phillies' closer Ryan Madson might make sense in Washington. In an article on likely destinations for remaining free agents, he suggested a 4-year/$40 million dollar deal might get you the right-hander, who was tied to Washington earlier this winter, though reports Jayson Werth "recruited" his former teammate were exaggerated according to the Nats' right fielder.
Do the Nationals need to add a veteran arm? Do they already have the pieces of a strong bullpen in place? Is the sprint in from the bullpen reason enough to bring Todd Coffey back?
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having the lowest BABIP is sort of a bad thing. doesn’t it suggest a lucky season and a regressive future?
not really, the past is the past :)
Clippard posted the same .197 BABIP number in 2009 (.284 in 2010), suggesting that his stuff is not easy to hit. Remember, as a reliever he can use his best pitches all the time and throw harder, opponents have little time to adjust to him. A bad season for him may be an average season for someone else.
In my mind, the number to pay attention to from Clippard’s 2011 season is actually his walk rate, a nice 2.65 BB/9, down from a then career low 4.05 BB/0 in 2010. His future will be affected more by whether he can keep that down than by luck.
Could the Nats' bullpen use a veteran arm? Maybe.
Do the have room for one – not really. If the bullpen sets up the way it looks right now, they’ll probably have Detwiler, Gorzelanny, Mattheus, HRod, Burnett, Clippard & Storen. That’s a 3LH / 4 RH mix – good balance, no one-out guys, with a cumulative total of 19.2 years served. Stammen & Perry [RH], and Severino [LH] will all be in the mix as well in Spring Training should anyone stumble. It was a good bullpen in 2011, why mess with it?
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
Exactly, the AAA depth will have some real potential
with Stammen, Perry, Severino, Martin, and the usualy AAA depth(Wilkie, Zinicola, Mandel, Arnesen, etc)
MOAR SEVERINO!
Your gonna make me find my bullpen list againt
well, here it is. Take out Laffey and Oliver
Francisco Cordero-To much money
Ryan Madson-To much money
David Aardsma (29)-Didnt pitch last year, so no
Jeremy Accardo (30)-NO
Luis Ayala (34)-Do we really want to go there again. He was good last year, but no thanks
Danys Baez (34)-NO
Miguel Batista (41)-As much as I like Ms. Iowa, no
Taylor Buchholz (30)-Decent option for the right price
Shawn Camp (36)-Decent option, even if he is a Robinson grad(Go Lake Braddock!)
Todd Coffey (31)-Wouldnt mind him back(MOAR SPRINTING)
Juan Cruz (31)-Decent
Chad Durbin (34)-no thanks
Aaron Heilman (33)-NO
Clay Hensley (32)-no thanks
Jason Isringhausen (39)-no thanks
Brad Lidge (35)-Would be a good veteran, but price would probably be to high
Scott Linebrink (35)-You could do worse, but no
Mike MacDougal (35)-He would be a good option, agian for the right price
Pat Neshek (31)-Would be a good personality, but his pitching really isnt very good
Ramon Ortiz (39)-NO
Micah Owings (29)-He would help our hitting
Vicente Padilla (34)-no
Tony Pena (30)-NO
Chad Qualls (33)-Wouldnt be bad
Fernando Rodney (35)-NO
Dan Wheeler (34)-maybe
Kerry Wood (35)-Wouldnt be bad, but dosent he only want to play in Chicago
Jamey Wright (37)-no
Michael Wuertz (33)-no
Joel Zumaya (27)-Wouldnt be bad, but would proably be to much money
Left-handed relievers
Rich Hill (32)-Signed with boston
Mike Gonzalez (34)-no
Aaron Laffey (27)-wouldnt be bad
Damaso Marte (37)-no
Trever Miller (39)-wouldnt be too bad
Darren Oliver (41)-Would be a good vertan addition
Arthur Rhodes (41)-no
Doug Slaten (32)-HELL NO
Brian Tallet (34)-NO
MOAR SEVERINO!
Darren Oliver signed with the Jays.
Not a lot of names inspire confidence in that list. I would happily have Todd Coffey back.
It is not that Coffey is bad, its just that we have so many other "not bad" options that are much cheaper
and have a higher upside. The obvious off-set is that they carry more risk, but we have so many that it is hard to believe that we won’t be able to get a solid six in the pen. After all we have,
Burnett
Gorz
Rod
Matheus
Clippard
Storen
And in the minors/DL, have
Stammen
Servino
Martin
Smoker
Kimball
Perry
I'm recalling ...
… that they took Ryan Perry in exchange for Balester because Perry has an option left and Balester didn’t. As crowded as this field looks, I expect they’ll use it.
I can’t see Maya getting much of a chance. He would be Deja Slaten all over again.
I haven’t seen anyone make a convincing case of just what the bullpen’s weakness IS. Are we trying to fix something that ain’t broke? And I don’t buy the “Veteran Presence” argument either. We’ve got a bunch of guys in their prime with 2 to 4 years experience, and the whole team showed tremendous “Never Say Die” spirit last year. What could a veteran add that isn’t already there?
That said, the Big Pot was respectable last year.
stop it twitter!
Haudricourt:
I have been told that the Washington Nationals have emerged as the favorite to sign Prince Fielder. bit.ly/szEQTt
The MLB official I talked to wasn’t sure the Nationals would go the eight to 10 years that Boras is seeking for Fielder, however. They might prefer to go shorter on the deal but as long as Boras is able to match or exceed the $25.4 million annual salary that Pujols is getting from the Angels, I’m guessing he will be happy.
crossing my fingers at this point
trying to keep a level head so it hurts less if these rumors aren’t true
by dcsportsfanatic on Jan 2, 2012 11:35 AM EST up reply actions
Whatever
Fielder would boost the team OBP% but from the wrong position in the lineup (#4-5). He’s clearly a force to be dealt with in the middle of any lineup, but I just feel like any kind of a long-term contract will crush the team, both financially & positionally (can’t protect a bat in the NL the way you’re able to in the AL).
Should the Nationals sign Fielder for any length of time, than they’ll need to trade LaRoche, Marrero, Moore, and probably Morse at less than market value within the next twelve months, and you can absolutely forget about getting a CF through FA. Rizzo understands the team & Organizational impact – That’s why he’s been non-commital to date, IMHO.
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
I dont think you have to trade Morse, Marrero, Moore, or Morse this year
the OF for the next few years would be Harper/Werth/Morse and says we get Prince on a 4-6 year deal, Werth could porbably last at CF for 3 more years without help, and for the next 1-3 years you could have someone like Perez platoon with Werth till Fielder’s contract is up. Marrero is nothing but a bench bat, as he dosent have the power to stick at 1B. Moore could also find himself in the OF. You have to think that Morse could get you a lot in a trade, especially if you added in a prospect.
MOAR SEVERINO!
Agree to disagree (with caveats)
LaRoche, Moore & Marrero will all be completely blocked by signing Fielder & will ask for trades. LaRoche (coming off the DL) immediately becomes a $9M ‘sunk’ cost for the team, but might be moved for 1/10th of his possible value in players (a couple of low-level prospects, at best).
Marrero (currently injured) holds no trade value, and would probably sit in XST/SYR until he proves himself healthy, but would be a “dead man walking” on the 40-man Nats roster.
Moore could become part of a deal for a 4-A SP to help SYR towards the end of Spring Training, but wouldn’t gain much more, IMO; He would otherwise play the year out in SYR, then wait for an off-season move.
Morse will be blocked from moving to 1B by Fielder, but is being pressured from other OF’s rising through the system as well. Should the wave of OF prospects (Harper, Hood, Brown, Goodwin, Perez) actually pan out, Morse becomes another ‘squeeze’ victim.
They may not all go in 2012, but the writing would be on the wall at the very least.
"Things are going great, and they're only gettin' better..." Timbuk3
Agree with this one right here!
I firmly believe that Morse has to contend against other OF prospects and not with Fielder. Harper won’t push Morse out immediately, and there is a glimmer of hope with how Harper advances at the MLB level. Given his arm, speed, and ability to grasp the game very strongly, he potentially could solve the CF issue. He won’t ever be a leadoff hitter, but he has the potential to be the next Mickey Mantle. Right now he is being groomed into right, and that would shift Werth into CF for now if Harper makes the club. This means that Morse’s future with the club is not only dependent upon what he produces, but what career tracks Harper ends up taking, AND if we sign Fielder.
Name a number between three and five.
.............
.............
Threeve.
HUGE Morse fan that agrees entirely with BinM.
I see Morse used along with others to take another run at Tampa Bay and below 30 BJ Upton. His offense should markedly improve once he is out from the cave known as the Trop. His defense in CF is sublime.
Fielder and Harper have two critical things Morse does not: both are under 30 and have left-handed bats. The “next wave” as Rizzo describes it should (as BinM mentioned) bring those outfielders but also Anthony Rendon. This guy could be a far better RHB than Morse. The caveat? Rendon’s power will likely not be the same?
I see LaRoche as a bench player in the future given his really average stats. Fangraphs likes to call Seth Smith average yet he is well above average offensively. Its LaRoche that is the flatline average hitter. And that’s not what you want in the heart of your lineup. But he might spec out well as a backup first bagger/PH/DH left-handed bat off the bench.
Perhaps it time to start conjecturing about what it would take to consummate a trade between the Rays and the Nationals?
The players associated with these trades are minor.
The impact of signing Fielder on the potential trade values of Moore, Morse, LaRoche, and Marrero is over-stated. If the value of blocked prospects diminished they way we are discussing, then here is a list of essentially free players the Nationals should look to acquire: Kendry Morales, Mark Trumbo, Anthony Rizzo, and Gerrado Parra. The truth is that a team trading a blocked player has diminished leverage in negotiations, talent will always have a market. And so long as at least one team is willing to pay market rate for the blocked talent, you haven’t lost value.
These players with the exception of Morse, have only fringe trade value to begin with. Morse is unlikely to garner the kind of player we need, because he is the kind of player that we need. Additionally, we could really only trade Morse to a team looking to compete now, and those teams aren’t generally going to give up what we are looking for.
As to the Rays trade, I think it is unlikely to happen. The Rays constantly need young talent to survive given there current payroll status. Upton will be a type A next year, so the Nationals would need to be willing to part with at least the value of two top draft picks for one year of Upton (any subsequent extension is the equivalent of a FA contract). I don’t see the Rays parting with Upton just for the salary relief. Upton is expensive for the Rays, but is still cheaper than his FA value by a significant percentage. As a result, I think that acquiring Upton would be too expensive and foolish for the Nationals this winter. I do think that he is a good player, though he is still not the lead-off man we were looking for.
Normally I'd agree but you're missing something in your analysis ...
BJ Upton’s offensive stats are slightly above average for the last 2 years and below the year before. That is MOSTLY because they are really TERRIBLE at home and ALL STAR caliber on the road.
I think that any Rays fan (or owner) who can read stats and understand the implication would not be happy. And it clearly shows that Upton is NOT happy playing at the Trop. Since the Rays have their designated CF of the future in Desmond Jennings they really do not need Upton. But they do need a solid middle of the order bat or two. Morse would certainly provide that. The Rays could really use a shortstop to shore up their infield. Desmond (or Lombardozzi) might provide that. MI is kind of a weakness for them. What they are strong in is outfielders and pitching.
The last two spots of the rotation
Definitely give Detwiler one of those spots, but with a short leash. We know what Lannan and Wang can do and what their potential is, but not so much with Detwiler. He posted a 3.00 ERA last year, but no one is sure if he can do this again. He’s going to be 26 in March, so now is the time to find if he is a good starter in the majors or someone they should trade.
"How the hell can I make my teammates better by practicing?" - Allen Iverson
Big Year Ahead for Many
This is the critical year for several players on the bubble:
-Maya
-Stammen
-Detwiler
-Henry R.
Good luck guys.
I don’t think the BP needs refinement unless a trade reduces what we have.
I don’t think the BP needs refinement unless a trade reduces what we have. -This.
I’m pretty sure Patrick put this piece together to throw out something besides the same tired speculation about Prince Fielder. We have good bullpen depth, and the only way I see that really changing is to make a trade. If only we could find a Cameron Maybin (who the Padres traded two unimpressive relievers for). That being said I could see moving Gorzlanny or Stammen to a team looking for a back of the rotation starter, and getting a AAA CF prospect like Gorkys Hernandez or Che-Hsuan Lin back. Perhaps San Diego would move Blake Tekotte.
Rizzo's comment about adding "a veteran presence" was the only...
…thing he said recently that I hadn’t addressed, and yes, it was something other than Prince chatter.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 2, 2012 2:04 PM EST up reply actions
I didn't mean to criticize.
You do an excellent job of prompting discussion on these boards, even with very little news to cover.
Didn't take it as criticism. And thanks.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 2, 2012 2:17 PM EST up reply actions
And now back to the tired Prince Fielder chatter - NPUT!
I’m kidding! I love the Prince Fielder chatter!
(And after all anything beats the tired Thomas Boswell chatter!)
The bullpen's fine - we need hitting!
Our pitching is our greatest strength – in the top ten in all of baseball. Our hitting sucks. We must improve our offense. Prince Fielder will do that.
Its interesting to look at the Nats bullpen statistically ...
Again using park and defense neutral stats.
Tyler Clippard (best of the bunch by a wide margin): 83.0 xIP, 2.64 tRA. 12.0 pRAA
Drew Storen (2nd best and another right hander): 73.8 xIP, 3.50 tRA, 3.6 pRAA
Craig Stammen (bet you’re surprised he was 3rd?): 9.8 xIP, 1.21 tRA, 3.0 pRAA
Tom Gorzelanny ( our first and only lefty, needed!): 21.7 xIP, 3.05 tRA, 2.1 pRAA
Cole Kimball (out for a long while unfortunately): 13.5 xIP, 3.38 tRA,, 0.8 pRAA
Todd Coffey (the veteran, yet another RHRP): 60.2 xIP, 3.90 tRA, 0.2 pRAA
The rest were all significantly below average and/or Sept call-ups.
Madson really might make sense: 62.6 xIP, 1.82 tRA, 14.7 pRAA
He was the best reliever in the Phillies bullpen and far superior to HRod as a backup
closer. But Ryan Mattheus may be even better if he comes back from his injury.
You really need to look at where the Nats are lacking. And that clearly would be in the area
of left-handed relief. The only truly effective left-handed reliever last year was Gorzelanny.
Can Burnett come back from what was a really miserable year? Can Atahualpa Severino replace Doug Slaten?
So, my guess is, if they sign a veteran reliever he is going to be a lefty. But there really isn’t really that much available except by trade.
This is where Rizzo looks really bad. Giving up what looked like a great left-handed reliever in the offing in Manno for Gomes. There’s Smoker but is he even close to ready? There’s veteran Lee Hyde. Mike Ballard is more of a minor league starters. There’s Patrick McCoy and Corey Van Allen.
This is a HUGE hole.
Lefty Pitchers on Nats 40 man
Matt Purke was just drafted.
Atahualpa Severino only pitched 4.2 innings in majors.
Sean Burnett is the primary left-handed reliever and is getting $2 3Mill in 2012 with 3.5M Mutual Option in 2013. He could be gone after this season.
Tom Gorzelanny former starter used as a long reliever at the end of 2011. FA in 2014
Ross Detwiler and John Lannan will complete with right hander Wang for 2 of the 3 starting pitcher spots. Mostly likely one of the 2 lefties will move to the bullpen at least for part of the season.
Gio Gonzalez a lock for a starting pitcher spot.
Gomes.............
Picking up Gomes was complete nonsense…………
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