Texas Rangers Keep Talking About Prince Fielder, Washington Nationals Quiet...Too Quiet?
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 11:43 AM EST
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PrintThe reports out of Texas since the Rangers signed Yu Darvish have said it's "very unlikely" the team will try to sign left-handed-hitting first baseman Prince Fielder after they officially added the 25-year-old right-handed starter to their rotation on Wednesday. It will take some "creative" thinking in order to get a deal with the 27-year-old free agent slugger done, sources are saying, but even then no one's ruling Texas out. Rangers' Assistant GM Thad Levine, in an appearance on the MLB Network Radio show First Pitch with Jim Memolo and Todd Hollandsworth this morning, did nothing to change the perception that the team remains in the mix for Fielder, however "unlikely" it is they do actually sign the free agent.
Asked if the Rangers were done after the Darvish signing, the Assistant GM, without mentioning the Scott Boras' client by name, said, "I will just tell you this, that Jon Daniels is an amazingly creative general manager and so, we are aware of acquisition costs of almost every player who is on the market including the guys who are still out there and there are active discussions internally to see if there's any ways we can improve the team. We'll always stay abreast of those. I'd say, handicapping it, it's unlikely, but it won't be from a lack of creativity in discussions and exploring internal options to make that happen."
"We're not denying what Prince brings to the table, it's a matter of budget and dollars and cents and financially what we've got, not just this year, but looking forward," Jon Daniels told MLB Network Radio's Jim Bowden and Casey Stern Thursday night on Inside Pitch, "We're going to have a record payroll this year as we sit today. We just made a huge investment yesterday and as much as we'd love [Prince], I just think from a budget standpoint and being responsible for the club, at this point it's unlikely."
The Washington Nationals, considered the front runners for Fielder by some, have said...nothing about Fielder publicly in some time... #runsilent
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Rizzo's played this right, IMO
he either gets Fielder on terms he can live with (notice I didn’t say "good deal’) or he goes somewhere else for more money and he’s able to say all along that he had a plan and stuck to it and the rumors were just that all along, whether that’s the truth or not.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jan 20, 2012 11:48 AM EST reply actions
5/24 or 6/23 is my guess
I’ll check FanGraph’s crowd sourcing guess, as it is crazy how good they are (though always a bit conservative since i think that saber crowd is more guessing inherent value than market value), though that would have been way before Fielder became a buyer’s market…
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 12:44 PM EST up reply actions
from FG crowdsourcing
6.5 years (1.0 stand deviation) / $20.9 per ($3.3. Std. Dev.)
So including the standard deviations, this seems pretty good: what we’ve been hearing are perhaps fewer years and more dollars, and it is within their range to have 5.5 years @ $23.9 per.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 12:50 PM EST up reply actions
my take on the Fielder contract
i’ve been hesitant to do this, but for the sake of the discussion, my guess is that Fielder ends up signing a seven-year deal, front-loaded, for around $160 million, with player opt-outs after five years. This guarantees Fielder is paid like the superstar he is today (AAV) through age 34, and allows him to hit the market again at age 32 if the player so chooses as the back-end per year salary diminishes if his play is still elite.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jan 20, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions
I’m trying to remember what his initial asking price was.
Was it 10 years @$250mm?
Was this the major roadblock from the Nats point of view after their very first discussion way back when?
I know this is pure speculation, but if true, would the lowering of demands to terms you are guessing at above represent, in Rizzo’s words “an extraordinary occurance” in the negotiations between the Nats and Boras – i.e. something the Nats could live with?
yup
the original numbers Boras was rumored to have thrown out there (since he doesn’t talk in those terms in the media) was 10/$250, which is purely outrageous. There’s not a team in baseball, Yankees and RedSox included, that would pay that contract. But it was a negotiating ploy. I’d guess Boras/Fielder’s real numbers are somewhere in the neighborhood like I presented. the goal here is to get the player locked up for enough years to guarantee him financial security, yet allow him to earn another contract if he retains elite level for that long. we all know the argument against players with his body type, but Jim Thome retained his value at the plate past the usual drop-dead ages of 32-34 (see Vaughn, Mo; Sexson, Richie, Fielder, Cecil and likely Dunn, Adam).
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jan 20, 2012 2:02 PM EST up reply actions
If I were Rizzo...
And I’m not, but if I were…
I could live with a commitment of 22-28 million per year, for up to 8 years, assuming more years means a lower annual commitment. So I’m in no way saying give him 8 years at AAV 28, but the shorter the contract is the more comfortable I feel going north of 25/year. And I’d be willing to eat two or three years of possible declining performance at the back end to get his prime years, but I’d also expect him to hold up for at least five years, with years six to eight being a decline but not so bad he needs to be benched.
I also start lobbying (if I’m Rizzo, which again, I’m not) to have the NL bring in the DH by 2017.
And I do consider that an overpay, but it’s not my money.
by rarumberger on Jan 20, 2012 12:46 PM EST up reply actions
whoa
per FG WAR (not beholden to it, but the following result is extreme enough to have some credence of the general point) Fielder was tied for 29th most valuable player over the last 3 years (which was a year range that was very generous to him). That doesn’t scream either 8 for 176 or however many for 28 (at least to me). He fields the easiest position and, while a force, is hardly among the most dominant hitters so as to make up for that lack of positional value.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions
I don't disagree
But two things:
1) As I said, I consider it an overpay. I made no comment about what he’s worth or what he should get, just what I would be willing to pay if it were my decision.
2) Salary and performance are not connected the way FanGraphs wants them to be. In a perfect world, you could say, “Okay, you were good for [x] WAR over the last three seasons, therefore you will make [y] dollars.” But that’s not close to what actually happens. WAR also doesn’t take into account increased attendance, TV viewership, and merchandise sales that accompany exciting players.
If we only want him for fair-market value, we probably won’t get him. Some people (possibly including Rizzo) are fine with that, but I want him, so I’d willing to go over value to get him – just not for ten years, and not for 250 mil.
again, agree WAR isn't everything
but while of course every situation is unique, I’d suggest that that metric tries to get at what you astutely suggest it doesn’t since more wins tends to correlate with more dollars in revenue.
I don’t know. I think with Strasburg back for 160 innings, Zimmermann pitching all season, Gio on board, the prospect of a healthy Ryam Z., Morse, and eventually Harper I’d say that Fielder isn’t likely to be THE piece that suddenly makes everyone pour revenue into the team.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
No, but he very well could be THE piece
that takes them to the playoffs.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Fangraph WAR counts defense way too much
Especially at first.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Jan 20, 2012 2:01 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
Ok, just offense
his wRC+ (which, unlike WAR, is a very solid stat) is 4th among 1Bs during those 3 years. This not only ignores his defense, but also his base running. And a questionable way to judge fielding or not, UZR is not wrong that he is less than average (how much is certainly up for debate, I’ll agree with you), as is his base running… I think no one disputes either of those. So, during one of his best stretches, he is 4th best at the most easily defended position only if you don’t adjust for his below-average fielding and base running. You don’t need WAR to lead you to that conclusion.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 3:12 PM EST up reply actions
Third in RC among first basemen
I don’t know about you, but I salivate at the thought that the third-most productive hitter at the position would be playing for the Nats the next several years. Especially given that one of those guys he’s trailing may well end up being known as the best hitter in the history of the game.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Never said I didn't want him
just that I thought 28 million per or 8 years was too much. That is ALL I ever responded to. Of course I salivate too, but whether I’d want him wasn’t the issue… it was at what price.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 3:29 PM EST up reply actions
Fair enough.
At this point though, I can’t imagine that the terms being tossed around are really that far apart. If it comes down to not signing him because six is acceptable and seven is not, or 18.5M is acceptable but 19M is not, then I’d be disappointed.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Of course, if he does sign with someone else,
we’d never know what separated them.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
this is like figuring out who the rat is in the departed
“you know how i know she’s in on fielder?”
“how?”
“she didnt look at me when she walked by”
Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man
Cripes.
Just sign the man already.
Rob
--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds
Quotes to mull over
Things may come to those who wait, but only the things left by those who hustle.
Abraham Lincoln
He who is prudent and lies in wait for an enemy who is not, will be victorious.
Sun Tzu
In the case of news, we should always wait for the sacrament of confirmation.
Voltaire
Don’t wait for the last judgment – it takes place every day.
Albert Camus
The last one I promise
I said to my soul, be still, and wait without hope, For hope would be hope for the wrong thing.
T. S. Eliot
What does this all mean? Heck if I know…I got these quotes from Brainyquotes.com I ain’t that smart.
one more:
try again. fail again. fail better
-Samuel Beckett
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 4:07 PM EST up reply actions
And
“My mama always told me never put off till tomorrow people you can kill today”
- Doc Holliday
Where do they teach you to talk like this? In some Panama City "Sailor wanna hump-hump" bar, or is it getaway day and your last shot at his whiskey? Sell crazy someplace else, we're all stocked up here.
"The time at our disposal each day is elastic; the passions we feel dilate it, those that inspire us shrink it, and habit fills it." - Marcel Proust.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 5:16 PM EST up reply actions
There the ever classic one...that gets no respect!
Remember to look after number one and don’t step in number two…
Rodney Dangerfield
Morse gets multi-year deal:
@NationalsPR: #Nationals agree to terms with OF/1B Michael Morse on a multi-year contract extension, thus avoiding salary arbitration. (cont)
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 4:28 PM EST reply actions
wow
if they get Prince, ??? once Harper comes up, Werth full-time CF, Morse full-time OF? Or is this a sign and (eventual) trade? Does this bode poorly for getting prince?
At any rate, do you have the # of years?
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 4:31 PM EST up reply actions
No terms yet.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
I don't think that influences Prince one way or the other
They have a price they’ll go to for Prince (which is probably too low to get it done quickly). They have a value for Morse. If they’re going to shell out 150M for Prince, I doubt that the money to buy out Morse’s arb years will be a big problem.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
what I meant was Morse's defense
and then needing Werth in CF with Harper in the other corner. That is not a recipe for a passable OF for very long.
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 4:59 PM EST up reply actions
but it would be for a year.
Aim for the head baby Jesus
by Doncosmic on Jan 20, 2012 6:55 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions
right
which is exactly what i was saying, if they also got prince itd be for much more than a year
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 8:28 PM EST up reply actions
Wow!
I’ll be interested to see what the terms are for this one.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
I like this move
It locks in Morse and rewards one of the Nats own (yes, they traded for him, but c’mon!). This could also make him a more valuable trade chip IF the Nats sign Fielder, Harper slugs his way to Nats Town and the Nats acquire their unicorn (high OBP good defense speedy CF/leadoff type).
does that unicorn have upside power to all fields?
"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."
by cat daddy3000 on Jan 20, 2012 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
acomak:
The arbitration figures the exchanged were a formality. The extension was agreed upon prior to deadline, contingent on a now passed physical
How about this for sneaky?
Nats extend Morse as a way to get the price down a bit more on Fielder. “See, we don’t NEED you; we’ve got this kid Morse locked up for a while, and are perfectly happy to have him play 1B in the future instead of you. Now, that doesn’t mean we couldn’t make room for you too, Prince….”
If you don't eat your meat, you can't have any pudding! How can you have any pudding if you don't eat your meat?!
That's a very sneaky. Are we hunting wabbits?
"I just want to tell you both good luck. We're all counting on you."
-Leslie Nielsen, Airplane
It's duck season.
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 5:07 PM EST up reply actions
I'm just overjoyed will have a non Prince Fielder post coming up when we get the details
Morse’s PED history bothers me some, but he had a great year and this is a solid move for the Nats if there’s reasonable terms.
Waiting to bang my drum in parades for the Nats and Caps.
Morse's PED history if unfortunate
but I dont think he is stupid enough to get caugh twice. IT takes a special person to get suspended twice for the same thing
MOAR SEVERINO!
Redskins have multiple "special" players
for whom new strains of weed have been named after!
by William.Hatheway on Jan 20, 2012 5:01 PM EST up reply actions
Don't Know All The Details.....
….but wasn’t his PED issue related to an injury? Not suggesting that it should be condoned, but a one-time flirtation with a PED to overcome an injury is not bothersome to me….especially considering how long ago it happened. But, understandable that it would bother some fans.
Remember too
that is Werth dosent improve, the cheapness of Harper, and maybe Morse could allow Werth to be a OF4
MOAR SEVERINO!
if extension buys out a free agent year, Fielder is a non-go.
I have to say for the record that if the extension is longer than two years I’ll be disappointed.
Your voice of doom and gloom. Read more at www.DistrictSportsPage.com
"Nobody’s got a monopoly on good writing, or the facts. If you can come up with one or the other or (ideally) both, you’re in the club." --Rob Neyer, Feb. 2, 2011
by Dave at District Sports Page on Jan 20, 2012 5:02 PM EST reply actions
QPUT...
Just a quick post up top on Morse’s extension, will add more when #’s and years are announced…
Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."
by Patrick Reddington on Jan 20, 2012 5:08 PM EST reply actions
Not sure how reliable these guys are but here it is
@ProspectInsider: Hearing tonight that the Fielder race is about two teams — both in the American League. This tells me Texas heavy favorite.
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