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Around SBN: The Infuriating Jose Molina

Are The Washington Nationals Still In The Market For Another Starter?

"It kind of makes me laugh when teams talk about they have too many starting pitchers," D.C. GM Mike Rizzo said during the last episode of 106.7 the FAN's The Mike Rizzo Show this past October, "That's always the statement in Spring Training, it's never the statement in September." These comments were made by Washington's general manager before the Nationals re-signed Chien-Ming Wang, and before the trade that brought Gio Gonzalez to the nation's capital.

"In our situation, we believe that we've got a good deep farm system, which is a good thing," Rizzo continued at the time, "but it takes eight or nine starting pitchers, really, to get through a major league season if we're going to perform at the highest level. We feel that we have that type of depth, finally, in the system, and Davey Johnson is a master at it and he's done it many, many times before and we'll expect him to do it again in 2012."

Even after the acquisition of Gonzalez, which cost the Nats four prospects, two of whom were expected to play a role at the major league level this season, Rizzo told reporters this week that the Nationals, "... feel good about ourselves. We feel confident that we're going to be a competitive club in a real tough division. We like all six of our rotation guys. We love the top three guys. We feel comfortable that we have depth in the rotation. We like our four and five guys and there's going to be good competition at several spots and we feel comfortable with our bullpen. We're not done with our bullpen. We're trying to improve ourselves in the rotation and in the bullpen and any other way we can."

Star-divide

As the general manager was talking about trying to improve Nats' rotation and pen (okay, maybe not at the exact moment, but the same day, this past Wednesday), 35-year-old veteran reliever Brad Lidge was taking a physical in advance of actually signing a one-year/$1M dollar+ deal with the Nationals after four years pitching with Washington's NL East rivals in Philadelphia. The signing addressed the Nats' stated need for a "veteran presence" in the bullpen to work with 24-year-old closer Drew Storen and 27-year-old set-up man Tyler Clippard and the rest of the Nats' relievers. As Rizzo pointed out in an interview with ESPN980's Thom Loverro and Kevin Sheehan, it also gives Davey Johnson another closer option since, as Rizzo explained, the manager does like to use two bullpens:

"Brad is an All-Star caliber pitcher, and a veteran presence, so he's going to help us. And you know Davey [Johnson], Davey uses a bullpen, he's got his A, B bullpen and they're will be plenty of games for Brad to pitch in at the end of it and he knows his role and he's really going to grab this thing and be a mentor to our staff."

Now about that starter? What starter? Rizzo did say "We're trying to improve ourselves in the rotation...," on the same day he was introducing left-hander Gio Gonzalez to the nation's capital. That night, FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal mentioned the Nationals as one of five or six clubs who "remain" interested in 34-year-old free agent right-hander Roy Oswalt. "The Nationals," Mr. Rosenthal wrote, "even after acquiring left-hander Gio Gonzalez, value Oswalt’s veteran presence and stuff." Rumors of the Nats' interest in Oswalt surfaced earlier this winter, but always with the caveat that Washington wasn't willing to give the veteran who was limited to 23 starts last year by back issues, anything more than a one-year deal.

Why are the Nationals still looking for a starter? One possibility, the Nats' front office actually does think they can contend this year and has decided to plan ahead for something Nats fans are having a hard time accepting as inevitable. Stephen Strasburg will be shut down when he reaches his innings-limit in the first full-year back from Tommy John surgery. If the Nationals have another plan for the '09 1st Round pick in 2012, one that will keep him a viable option for potentially "meaningful" late-season games, it will contradict all they've said publicly this winter, and what the general manager reiterated once again Wednesday afternoon during the ESPN980 interview:

Mike Rizzo: "Well, someone will pitch those meaningful innings in September. That's why we've created depth in our starting rotation. We feel we've got good depth. We've got guys that are capable major league innings that could take the brunt of those innings when we shut Stras down. We're going to do what's best for Stephen Strasburg long-term, because what's best for Stephen Strasburg is best for the Washington Nationals. And we protect our young assets and our young players, because they have, Stephen's got a long career ahead of him and I don't want to be the guy to throw a wrench into that.

"He's an incredible kid and he will want the ball and take the ball, and may fight me when we make this decision, but it will be the prudent decision to make and one that will be made."

Pressed on the issue, and asked if Strasburg could conceivably return in October if he's shut down early, could he return late in the season for a hypothetical playoff run? "To shut him down for that length of time," the GM explained, "Would mean to almost have another Spring Training to ramp him back up to pitch towards the end of the season. And it's just too important a decision. I hope we're making that tough decision in September, that would be good, but the decision [has] already been made in my mind and we'll stick to it. And like this year with Jordan Zimmermann, it didn't make everybody happy, but I thought it was the right move, and I think that the move with Stras will be the right move also and probably won't make a lot of people happy either."

Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez, Zimmermann, John Lannan, Chien-Ming Wang, Ross Detwiler, Tom Gorzelanny, Yunesky Maya, Craig Stammen? That's nine starters (seven if you leave out Stammen/Gorzelanny as pen-bound), one that's pitched 200+ innings twice in his four-year career, two of whom are coming off partial seasons in which they returned from injury, one of whom will be in his second year back from Tommy John surgery, one whose relative success is a mystery to many who examine what he does on the mound, one more who's a 1st Round pick that hasn't yet made his mark in the majors and has no more options, one international signing who hasn't been what was expected and two pitchers who've moved back and forth between the bullpen and rotation the last several years without settling into either role permanently.

Do the Nationals still need to add a Brad Lidge-like veteran presence to the starting rotation, just in case they actually end up competing? Should they wait til later this summer and see where they stand? Will it be another former-Phillie? Is there an up-and-coming or recently-drafted Nationals' pitching prospect you think could end up in D.C. late this season?

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Suppose I should add "pitching" to the sentence...

Though Harper did say he was in the mid-90’s last time he threw.

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 27, 2012 6:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Q: "How hard do you top out on the mound ?!"

@BHarper3407: “I hit 98 when I was in college last year!”

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 27, 2012 6:38 PM EST up reply actions  

but seriously, folks..

I don’t see how the Nats can fit any more starting pitching until someone gets hurt. I hate the lack of depth at AAA as much as the next guy, but if Rizzo can’t make do with the six guys he has, and refuses to pitch Maya, he’s still not out of options yet. I can’t see how it makes sense to make another move, when it would be hard to find a pitcher who would improve the rotation, and guys like Oswalt don’t sign deals to be AAA depth.

by dc Roach on Jan 27, 2012 6:48 PM EST reply actions  

Lannan would be the AAA depth

Put me in the Pro-Oswalt camp. He’s a clear upgrade over Wang/Lannan/Detwiler.

We Aim to Maim - JoseRijo es mi Amigo aka court

by rfk428 on Jan 27, 2012 7:01 PM EST via iPhone app up reply actions  

I'm definitely in the pro-Oswalt camp!

I’ve always liked Little Roy and think he’d be a great mentor to the young staff, Rizzo’s prized Veteran Presence AND a real upgrade over Lannan.
(Despite what CD3K says, Lannan won’t be better this year and won’t prove me wrong. Even the hyper-positive Baby Raccoons #1 & #2 know this to be true though they would be sorry to see the Sad Eyes go. They’d rather have MOAR WINZ!)

"player development" should not be gladiator games. by cat daddy3000 on Aug 6, 2011

by MissB on Jan 27, 2012 7:56 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

No love for Bambi.

Sigh.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 27, 2012 8:01 PM EST up reply actions  

wait, I read somewhere a couple days ago that Lannan would be a solid #4 on anyone's team...

including this one, over Wang. So was Lidge just a lure to get Oswalt and put the Astro’s band back together again?
yikes…

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 8:24 PM EST up reply actions  

yes, Lannan is a solid #4 or #5 on most teams

a one year Oswalt deal doesn’t make much sense, unless there’s a plan to trade Lannan or Det for a CFer, but that would force them to sign more free agent starters over the next year or two until the next crop matures in the minors. I’ll let Rizzo do the math on this stuff.

by dc Roach on Jan 27, 2012 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

I hope Rizzo isn't doing too much math....

I’d like to see how some of these guys turn out before trading them away…

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 11:50 PM EST up reply actions  

John Lannan is seriously under-appreciated up in here

I’ll take him over ol’ broke-down Roy Oswalt – at a fraction of the price, mind – any old day. Ya’ll crazy.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 12:17 AM EST up reply actions  

there wasnt any buzz about lidge until the moment before wasthere?

For all we know, oswalt could be taking his physical in the morning. If I were lannan, I would feel that much shame about getting bumped considering my stuff and the guys ahead of me

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Jan 27, 2012 6:50 PM EST reply actions  

and in a darkened forest, Bambi cries….

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 8:25 PM EST up reply actions  

he shouldnt

if anyone knows that its just business its disney

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Jan 27, 2012 9:45 PM EST up reply actions  

heh....

Uncle Walt Corleone…

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 10:14 PM EST up reply actions  

similar to:

“Peyton, you’re my older Manning, and I love you. But don’t ever take sides with anyone against the horseshoe again. Ever. "
-Jim Irsay

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Jan 27, 2012 10:27 PM EST up reply actions  

hilarious........

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 11:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Then he should be concerned

given Disney’s propensity to kill parents (especially mothers) off early as a plot device…

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Jan 28, 2012 10:02 AM EST up reply actions  

A Big Season For Nationals Fan's To Enjoy In 2012

I wouldn’t be surprised to see Mike Rizzo sign Roy Oswalt and think it may actually happen, but I don’t want him for more than one season. I’m not really thrilled about signing him now, but it is what is.

I think the Washington Nationals will be in the NL Wildcard hunt with the team we have right now if guys stay healthy. I’m not crazy on them shutting down Strasburg in the middle of the franchise’s first real playoff race here in D.C., but I see his logic.

Nationals fan’s will finally be rewarded with a solid baseball team! I really like the team and look forward to seeing the progress of guys like Danny Espinosa, Wilson Ramos, Jordan Zimmermann just to name a few. I think 90 wins is very possible. What do you guys think?

by Beltwayboy on Jan 27, 2012 6:54 PM EST reply actions  

More "mid" than "high", IMO

But I’m the resident nay-sayer around here.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 27, 2012 8:09 PM EST up reply actions  

I think mid is more likely as well, but I can see how things could break right and out them in the

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jan 27, 2012 8:34 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Put them in the high 80s

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jan 27, 2012 8:35 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I'm Trying To Be Levelheaded About The Upcoming Season

I agree that we need Werth to bounce back to being an average hitter b/c he was awful at the plate last year. I don’t think Morse will regress that much, at least I hope. If Ryan Zimmerman stays healthy and Espinosa and Ramos improve at the plate which I think they will our lineup will be much better than last season. Plus Ian Desmond should improve at the plate as well.

Adam LaRoche will be back and you can pencil him in for 20 HR’s 85 RBI’s plus his glove is very solid at first base. I’m trying to look at this without being biased, but I still think 90 wins is possible. Also factor in manager Davey Johnson’s track record as a manager and I can’t help to be excited about this season, but we are talking about a D.C. team here and if something can go wrong it usually does, LOL! Am I looking at this wrong?

by Beltwayboy on Jan 29, 2012 10:41 PM EST up reply actions  

Chris Young

I have not seen any thing connecting him to the Nats. Would a someone like Chris Young , that start the season off on the DL, and is available later in the season an option.
They really need major league ready pitchers that they can keep in AAA until needed.

by HG_VA on Jan 27, 2012 7:29 PM EST reply actions  

"Chris Young, start the season on the DL..."

aren’t we being needlessly repetitive here?

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 27, 2012 8:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Oswalt for 1 year is a grand idea fully in line with overall team strategy

Passing on the PF Flyer and the dunderhead terms involved was also a gran idea in line with the strategy.

Signing Lidge on the announced terms another grand idea in line with the strategy.

Inking Oswalt would merely be consistent and eminently understandable.

Given the above, s’pose the name Ankiel might turn up in conversations soon?

by duff47 on Jan 27, 2012 7:33 PM EST reply actions  

Rather than shutting Stras down in Sept

why not skip Stras when there are opportunities for a 4 man rotation, especially early in the season and extended All-Star break, saving him for Sept and playoffs. I know it could be a habit/momentum thing with pitchers used to pitching every 5 days, but if it leaves him with innings down the stretch and playoffs, I think the risk is minimal and reward great. Imagine the Nats making the playoffs, but won’t use Stras because he’s exceeded the ‘limit’. That would suck for Nats fan, Stras and MLB. Yes, that means more Lannan or Wang or Detwiler early on, but I think they’ll build on last year and give the Nats chance to win, as long as the offense and defense continue to improve as expected.

by dugjxn on Jan 27, 2012 8:33 PM EST reply actions  

I think regularly pitching Lannan instead of Strasburg

will kill any remote chance they have of playing “meaningful games in September.”

But, I reiterate: I’m the nay-sayer.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 27, 2012 8:36 PM EST up reply actions  

didn't work out for Zimm last year.....I think Stras needs his regular starts and when he hits the limit, that's it.

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 8:45 PM EST up reply actions  

every fifth day, if he's not starting he's not happy....

he’s been under enough restrictions…..now it’s just an innings limit and he knows that. Let him take his turn until he’s told to stop. No artificial monkeying around…

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

plus the viewing public doesnt want anymore guess-stras'-next-start games

i think i can speak for everyone

Yeah, well, you know, that's just like, uh, your opinion man

by TJL on Jan 27, 2012 10:28 PM EST up reply actions   1 recs

hear, hear!!!

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 11:08 PM EST up reply actions  

I agree, besides ....

…. there’s plenty of time for maneuvering who will backfill for Stras in September.

Besides, let’s use him early to get us within reach.

by DaRube on Jan 28, 2012 11:08 AM EST up reply actions  

edwin jackson

gives you serious wins over our 4 – 5, enough to be a clincher … and for far fewer years and dollars per than that prince guy. and rizzo is right, realistically SPs get hurt so you need a surplus. he is 2.5 wins over lannan, and if wang doesnt get it back together then you have 4 great gus and lannan 5. i would LOVE this.

by William.Hatheway on Jan 27, 2012 9:38 PM EST reply actions  

Really curious to see what he ends up with in money and years. I guess in terms of building value being a #4 for a year isn’t much different from being a #2 (or whatever), right? So if all he has a 1 year deals then maybe there’s a chance.

by brs03 on Jan 27, 2012 10:01 PM EST up reply actions  

I just don't see the sense in stockpiling pitchers and not even signing a stopgap for the OF

or anyone else for the bench. No, there wasn’t a frontline player available. But does anyone believe there was no one available for relatively little who could have improved the team a little?

by mstomper on Jan 27, 2012 11:49 PM EST reply actions  

I bet Rizzo's counting on other teams' roster trimmings or maybe Alex Cora again...

(he only retired from Winter ball….)

"...I don't want to go watch American League baseball." -Lance Berkman....
I wanna watch the "... tape-measure-testing, laser-throwing, eyeblack-oozing baseball cyborg."

by cat daddy3000 on Jan 27, 2012 11:54 PM EST up reply actions  

It's the way the game is played these days

Nearly half the players in MLB are pitchers. Didn’t use to be that way – but a whole lotta things didn’t use to be that way. How many complete games we have last year? One, I think. That’s just the way it is.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 12:04 AM EST up reply actions  

We in the market for another SP?

Of course. Always. It’s only a question of who, and how much; sometimes when – never if.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 27, 2012 11:58 PM EST reply actions  

According to Twitter there's no need to worry about Oswalt ending up in D.C. anymore...

ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes says Oswalt to St. Louis. I did not check to see if this was a fake Mr. Edes though, so…fwiw

Vivian Jaffe: "Have you ever transcended space and time?"
Albert Markovski: "Yes. No. Uh, time, not space... No, I don't know what you're talking about."

by Patrick Reddington on Jan 28, 2012 1:31 AM EST reply actions  

Not a chance

If we sign another SP, then we would have to release Wang and/or Detwiler, and Rizzo values Detwiler too much to do that. Right now, Lannan is the odd man out. Notice, how every other player reached some sort of agreement before going to arbitration? Rizzo is arguing over a few hundred grand, because he wants to save every penny he can while Lannan pitches in Syracuse. Arbitration is commonly considered a difficult process for the player, because the team basically has to make the case against a player- explain all their shortcomings, why they’re a crappy pitcher. For example, the Red Sox haven’t gone to arbitration in like 10 years.

With that said, it will all be of little matter once Rizzo sits Lannan down to tell him that it doesn’t matter how well he does in ST. He’s going to get demoted regardless. Wang has some bounce-back potential, and Detwiler has no options.

It wasn’t long ago that Rizzo balked at trading Detwiler for Michael Bourn. If he wasn’t willing to give Detwiler up for a CF/lead off solution, there’s no chance he’s going to give Detwiler away for nothing. And he’d have to if we signed another SP.

by Willl on Jan 28, 2012 4:28 AM EST reply actions  

That conversation will never take place
With that said, it will all be of little matter once Rizzo sits Lannan down to tell him that it doesn’t matter how well he does in ST. He’s going to get demoted regardless. Wang has some bounce-back potential, and Detwiler has no options.

For one thing, even if Rizzo was leaning towards sending Lannan to Syracuse, he’s not going to tell Lannan he can’t make the squad at all. I would be surprised if Lannan isn’t in the #4 spot in the rotation to start the season, frankly. I don’t know that it’s because I’m that oversold on Lannan as I am suspicious of Wang and Detwiler. I think the most likely result is Lannan/Wang in the #4/#5 slots with Detwiler in the bullpen until someone goes down. But ST will sort all that out.

I do agree with your basic point – they’re not going to sign another pitcher for the rotation. If they could stash Wang or Detwiler they might, but since they can’t they won’t.

by d_c_guy on Jan 28, 2012 4:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Also, if your John Lannan and get sent to AAA

why would you not want to be traded when you know there is another team out there that would want you in the majors. What do you have to gain by going to the minors?

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Jan 28, 2012 5:42 PM EST up reply actions  

Zips 2012 projections are out for the Nats. Not very sexy IMO. Brought me back down to reality a bit.

This offense really needs to do alot to improve. Zips clearly recognizes that.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_washington_nationals/

Would love to hear everyone’s thoughts.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Jan 28, 2012 10:33 AM EST reply actions  

nice, they're ready to call pretty much everybody an overachiever when the season is over

I can see some of where they’re coming from, but I don’t see it holding, especially where pitching is concerned.

by dc Roach on Jan 28, 2012 10:54 AM EST up reply actions  

Back to the drawing board boys…..the Nats need to have a fire sale and start over. If Baseball Think Factory is correct, we will have a very long 2012 season of regression….but I somehow don’t see that happening. Better get another SP……looks like Wang and Stras will only pitch 75 innings each this upcoming season. Missing out on Prince will look to haunt us since we will have no true HR hitter on the team, since Zim and Morse will lead the team with only 22 each. Actually, some of the projections are likely pretty close…..but most seem to undervalue the players on the team. I think that most of the Nats will perform better than what is projected in this illustration. Oh….the greatest part of all? MATT STAIRS will be back and will hit a whopping .211 with 2 HRs! Yay!

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 11:41 AM EST up reply actions  

I guess you all know what I think

These numbers pretty much match my expectations spot on. Which is of course why I seem to recall arguing a time or two for them to try to sign a big bat up the middle.

THP with the .728 OPS. [eyes roll]

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

You expect only 75 innings from Strasburg? Only 120 innings from JZim(n)?

Their pitching numbers just seem weird to me.

"I was a victim of a series of accidents. As are we all."
---Malachi Constant

by The Herndon Kid on Jan 28, 2012 1:17 PM EST up reply actions  

Talking about the offense only

Didn’t look too close at the pitching…

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 1:20 PM EST up reply actions  

If the numbers are based mainly on previous three(?) years,

the low IP makes sense for the Tommy John Twins.

I recommend you focus more on the rate stats than the counting ones, especially for the injured players. Strasburg’s 139 ERA+ then looks pretty good. ;-)

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 1:23 PM EST up reply actions  

As mentioned below

Age is taken into consideration.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 3:13 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

You project 2 retired guys to hit 14HR for us

also Drew Storen only has 1 more IP than Ryan Perry, Oliver Perez has 70 innings? These projections show me a serious lack of work on finding who will actualy be on the team, considering Aubrey, Stairs, Slaten, and Perez already are officialy not going to be on the team. Im sorry but I cant take these seriously if they cant even take the time to get the players right

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Jan 28, 2012 2:16 PM EST up reply actions   2 recs

+100000000000000000000

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 2:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Ok

I think you are missing the big picture, seeing as he’s apparently just going with last year’s roster, but whatever.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 3:04 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

I think the Espinosa and Ramos projections are spot on…..but I think the projections undercut many of the others though. What is funny, is how different folks project….when you go to Fangraphs and look at the projections for Morse, for instance, he is projected as having as little as 22 HRs and as many as 31HRs this upcoming season. I think the truth lies somewhere in the middle….say 27? Seems that most have Zim around 22, but I still think Zim has 27+ as well. The same thing applies to averages….I think Zim and Morse both flirt around the .290 neighborhood. Just my “qualitative” opinion, and not based on any scientific quantitative analysis at all….but the stats in that baseball think factory have some serious anti-nats sentiment mixed in.

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 2:18 PM EST up reply actions  

Axe me zips is bogus

It is said that if you look out the window and say, “Tomorrow’s weather will be pretty much like it is today,” you’ll be correct about 66% of the time. Before anybody flames out, I’ll grant that weather prediction is more complicated that baseball by several orders of magnitude. However, my point is that zips’ oh-so-scientific projections are based on the simple principle that most things do not change overnight.

And so what? In baseball, as in everything else, a little bit of difference can go a long way. Gio is an important new piece of the puzzle – now allz we need is for like one 2011 guy to repeat, one more to bounce back, and in 2012 we improve by 10 games. And we will.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 1:28 PM EST up reply actions  

It's a bit more involved than that

Age is taken into consideration, as well as the standard progession of players. ZiPs isn’t the best projection system out there, but it’s pretty good overall. It’s certainly not “bogus”.

The bigger point is the one made earlier: we all tend to over-value our guys, and it’s instructive to see what other, more objective, people have to say. Fact of the matter is that few people outside this board think the Nats’ offense is any good.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 3:11 PM EST via mobile up reply actions  

Thank'ee perfesser

I s’pose “bogus” is a bit harsh. After all, zips don’t make things up out of whole cloth – but their parameters ain’t reliable beyond very mundane, if not to say mind-numbingly boring limits. Could zips foresee the Mariners 2011 turn-around, or the Braves implosion? Or closer to home, the 2011 season had by Morse, Ramos…or Dunn?

It’s called “fantasy baseball” for a reason. Who needs it?

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 3:24 PM EST up reply actions  

Of course, they are only projections based on historical outcomes --

so odd things do happen. These systems just give the most likely outcome. As in, if you are a betting man, the odds are that most of these numbers will be pretty close when all is said and done (because most of the time the results are of the “mind-numbingly boring” variety). Now, if you had some way to better foresee the oddities, you would probably be able to make lots of money.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 5:38 PM EST up reply actions  

i tend to agree that 3-2-1 regression systems like this are good anchors

but I also agree that they are better suited to older teams with fewer guys having had big injuries… and that said systems are better with offense then pitching (hey, even though i didn’t want prince at 9/214 doesn’t mean I know the offense is poor this year most likely); I think our pitching is going to be really really really good, and that guys like Wilson played to their talent level last year, so you shouldn’t take league average young guys so much into consideration as you have to in a system such as this.

by William.Hatheway on Jan 28, 2012 10:06 PM EST up reply actions  

Instructive?

I couldn’t make heads or tails of it.

by PerryMason on Jan 28, 2012 4:24 PM EST up reply actions  

On another note, the offseason got really boring now that Fielder has signed.

You guys. You lollygag the ball around the infield. You lollygag your way down to first. You lollygag in and out of the dugout. You know what that makes you? Larry!

by Bsullivan on Jan 28, 2012 10:51 AM EST reply actions  

Look on the bright side...

p&c in 21 and a wake-up

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 11:39 AM EST up reply actions  

Nats' P&C report on the 21st, right?

Or maybe it’s the 20th. In any case, it’s just a tad bit more than 21…

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 12:56 PM EST up reply actions  

So it is.

For me, that’s 22 days. Maybe that can also be interpreted as “21 and a wakeup”? I’m not sure ‘cause I’ve never heard that expression before.

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 28, 2012 1:04 PM EST up reply actions  

Guess you've never seen an overseas hitch in the military

…where counting the days becomes a science, with a language all it’s own. The last day never counts, because all you gotta’ do is wake up and then you’re outa’ there, homeward bound. Some things you never forget.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 1:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Yes…..I remember those military days and terminology well; one doesn’t serve for 27 years and forget overnight! lol

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 2:20 PM EST up reply actions  

and sully, they tell me that nothing has changed

Break 100 and you are officially short. It’s a big day, and you hoo-rah the FNGs with incredulous shouts of “300?! Man, I can’t even remember that far back.” When you’re a single-digit midgit, you start saying things like, “I’m so short I’d hafta look up to see a snake’s belly,” etc. Then the big day comes. You make your bird, the freedom bird, and it’s all over. Except that you think about it again, from time to time – like every effen day, for the rest of your life.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 3:07 PM EST up reply actions  

Ahhhhh Yes……The Good Ole’ Days. We never knew back then that we would one day call our time in the military as “the good ole’ days” but here we are. :)

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 11:00 PM EST up reply actions  

Good

Finally got the Nat-killin’ SOB outa NL East. Now if Atlanta would trade Hudson to say, the moon, that would make me truly happy.

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 3:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe Newt will but a team and move them to the moon. He does want to make it the 51st state

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Jan 28, 2012 4:11 PM EST up reply actions  

Reminds me of a t-shirt

My brother was working with a researcher who was involved in the space shuttle experiments with animals. One experiment involved efts. An enterprising soul worked up a t-shirt (mine has unfortunately gone the way of all old t’s):

“If they can send a newt into space, why can’t they send Newt?”

Of course, no return ticket was implied.

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Jan 28, 2012 5:55 PM EST up reply actions  

What would it do for Desmond's OBP if he could draw one more walk per week over the course of the season?

Of course we we assume he also got around the same number of hits. That would have him getting on base 30 or so more times. If he could accomplish that, he wouldn’t look like such a weak leadoff option.

I’m still not happy that we haven’t improved the bench. Of all the minor league contract the one I see with the best chance of helping is Xavier Paul, but he’d need to cut down on the strikeouts. My best guess is that he’ll go to Syracuse and hit .300.

by mstomper on Jan 28, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah…..Xavier Paul seems to hit .300+ in AAA, but hasn’t shown much yet in MLB. Wouldn’t it be lovely if he could somehow produce those numbers in DC? Same with Lombardozzi, but Lombo hasn’t had the opportunities yet that Paul has.

by sullyzz on Jan 28, 2012 2:09 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments

1. I don’t think Morse is going to regress too much. If I was worried about anyone, it would be Espi and Ramos. I love ‘em both, but the sophomore slump exists b/c young players often don’t make adjustments and the league does. Espi kind of vanished in the second half. I hope he learned from that. Morse adjusted b/c he was pitched around after he started launch balls all over the place. For most of the season, he was the Nats only offense threat, and he flat-out hit when every pitcher tried to pitch around him. Werth tanked, Zim was hurt a good chunk of the season and took while to get back to his normal self (as to be somewhat expected).

2. I think our pitching will be much improved. My only fears are J-Zimm and Gio getting ahead in the count. I am not worried about the bullpen at all.

3. As far as wins, we need to beat the freakin’ Marlins. The Fish will be improved, but we need to get over that hump. Philly will be tough, but I see them on the downswing. The Braves will be tough, and I would be happy going .500 against them. The Mets will be in the cellar. I think high 80’s for wins would be fantastic, but I don’t see us hitting 90.

4. As for defense, I like it. Plus defenders at all IF positions and behind the plate. The OF will be average, but I’ll take an average OF and superior IF most days of the week.

Other notes: We better get career type numbers from Werth and a healthy Ryan Zimmerman. If we can do a full season of Werth, Zim, Morse, I think they will all benefit. Good hitters feed off each other — runners on base, protection in the line-up, and getting into the bullpen will be huge for the Nats offense. And if Harper comes up and rakes, that is just a wonderful bonus.

I can’t wait to watch.

by HarmonK on Jan 28, 2012 4:24 PM EST reply actions  

Yer on the money, Killer - if that's the intent of your HarmonK tag (and what else could it be?)

1. Regress? Have no fear – leave that to the opposing pitchers.

2. Our pitching staff is in good hands. JZimm, Gio and Stras will all benefit greatly from the finest pitching coach in MLB.

3. Effen-A. Phillies ain’t the powerhouse any more. They will sink to 4th. NLE is the Brave’s to lose, and we will fight it out with the Fish for wild-card.

4. Yup

"I can go to my left or right, I am amphibious." - Charles Shackelford

by Whupass on Jan 28, 2012 6:17 PM EST up reply actions  

espi lit up september with a 121 wRC+

which means he was, offensively, 21% better than average, and I did a rundown a few months ago showing that it wasn’t against weaker (callup) pitching. He had a good May, June, and September and a poor April, July, and August. That is what I call “noise”

by William.Hatheway on Jan 28, 2012 10:19 PM EST up reply actions  

Why another starter?

Put me in the Lannen camp. More so put me in the DETwiller Camp.

There was a point where I was calling for the Oswalt signing[the last three years] That was before we gave up four guys for one.

Now………. signing Jackson and not making the NATGIO trade was probably the way to go.

by artistfork on Jan 29, 2012 12:41 AM EST reply actions  

because we gave up 2 MLB ready arms for one

So it wouldn’t hurt to have another, which is what Rizzo was saying. But believe it or not, I’d consider it more Wang insurance then a Lannan upgrade. At any rate, there will be pitch limits on the staff (including Wang himself?) and I guess I just figured you have Wang or Lannan going long relief until Stras is gone or when injury happens to someone else in the rotation. As far as Detwiler, I don’t know, I know they have to keep him up and he could be ok but he sure hasn’t proven much and it is getting on in years to do so. But then who has options, can deal with the pen, etc…. I know, lots of questions, so I’m not exactly so sure anymore, just saying I can see Rizzo’s point and think Jackson is way undervalued…

by William.Hatheway on Jan 29, 2012 10:33 AM EST up reply actions  

FYI, I asked the question about innings limits for Wang after last year

No limits on Wang this year. As a 31yo pitcher he’s not in the same profile as the kids just establishing themselves. And (pragmatically) he’s only under team control for 2012, so what’s to lose? And it doesn’t hose the player; from Wang’s perspective the goal is to pitch as much and as effectively as possible to increase his value on the market.

by d_c_guy on Jan 30, 2012 9:45 AM EST up reply actions  

Because you can trade one guy as a part of a package for a CF

and than you sign sign crappy guys on MiLB deals for depth

That way you have a better rotation, and a CF

MOAR SEVERINO!

by jeff550 on Jan 29, 2012 12:55 PM EST up reply actions  

crappy guys make a better rotation?

and what cf for what price? bj would be a one year rental at a high cost

by William.Hatheway on Jan 29, 2012 1:52 PM EST reply actions  

get EJ!!

he’s still young and a season or two ago everyone was going bananas about him and possibly trading for his services..that way we could package lannan and another player for our lead off role and cf

by Sportzxpert on Jan 30, 2012 2:12 PM EST via Android app reply actions  

I'm not against EJ in theory

He’s certainly got more promise and upside than Wang or Lannan. But I would caution you against thinking that Lannan plus some other guy is going to get a true leadoff hitter who can play CF. I can’t think of one player that is available that Lannan + player (unless that player is a really good one) would land. I don’t think Lannan cracks the Rays’ or the Yankees’ starting rotations, for example.

by d_c_guy on Jan 30, 2012 6:15 PM EST up reply actions  

Lannan for Gardner, straight up.

As Rizzo said, you can never have too much pitching!

Rob

--"Well my days of not taking you seriously are certainly coming to a middle." -- Mal Reynolds

by RobBobS on Jan 30, 2012 6:29 PM EST up reply actions  

Maybe Cashman will throw in Pineda to even things up...

Brain: "Pinky, are you pondering what i'm pondering?"
Pinky: "Yes, ... wait, ... no, ... never mind"

by jbg2772 on Jan 30, 2012 7:08 PM EST up reply actions  

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